Preseason College Football Picks- Big Ten
Indiana to miss the Playoff +250 (4 units)
This bet pains me a bit, as I have been all aboard the Indiana bandwagon the last two years. I cashed Indiana to make the Playoff at 30/1 in 2024 and Indiana to win the Big Ten at 15/1 last year.
The fact of the matter is that we don't really know how good Indiana is going to be this year. There's no historical precedent for "team goes from historic doormat to best team in the sport in 2 years"- we don't know what the long term trajectory is like for them.
The schedule is pretty light and that is both a blessing and a curse. They play no one in the non-conference slate. I am not convinced they'll make the playoff at 10-2 given how light their schedule is. If they're 10-2, it's likely their best wins would likely be over Michigan and Washington- solid teams, to be sure, but fringe top 25 teams. They'd surely be behind 10-2 SEC teams in the pecking order for an at-large bid.
I am not going to be surprised if Indiana defends their national title, but I also think there's a lot more uncertainty with them than the other national title contenders.
Nebraska over 7.5 wins +290 (1 unit)
Nebraska over 8.5 wins +750 (0.5 units)
Nebraska to make the Playoff +2700 (0.5 units)
Nebraska to win the Big Ten +15000 (0.1 units)
It's a bit of a surprise to me that Nebraska hasn't been better in recent years. As roster spending grows by 25% year over year, donor support has become extremely important. Nebraska has some of the most dedicated fans in the country.
That shows in the roster. Their high school recruiting is much better than the other former Big Ten West teams (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota), and so is their transfer class. They also have Anthony Colandrea at QB. There's a reason I'm only betting on the wingy strikes with Nebraska- when you hear "Anthony Colandrea", "volatility" should be the first word that comes to mind. He has the potential to be an amazing QB and also has the potential to throw 4 INT every time he takes the field. I think that with the right coaching, his upside is tremendous.
Washington under 6.5 wins +350 (2 units)
Washington projects to be a solid team- I have them 23rd in my preseason ratings- but they have a lot more "blowup" risk than most teams. QB Demond Williams left the team in December, intending to transfer to LSU, before the lawyers stepped in and told him he'd be in breach of his contract if he left. He then went back to Seattle with his tail between his legs.
If things go wrong at Washington, they thus have the potential to go really, really wrong. HC Jedd Fisch is also known to not be the easiest guy to work for. I like the wing put on the Huskies this year.
USC to make the Playoff +270 (2 units)
USC to win the Big Ten +1400 (0.5 units)
I'm very high on USC this year- the Trojans are 13th in my preseason ratings. They were a good team last year- potentially a fluky loss at Illinois away from the playoff. They bring back a lot from that team, including QB Jayden Maiava who has never gotten the respect that he deserves as one of the better QBs in the sport. They're also dominating in high school recruiting, which will show on the field this year.
USC has been slept on, because they've been in the "good, but not great" space since they joined the Big Ten. They play Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon this year, and a 1-2 record in those games and a 9-0 record elsewhere will be enough to get them into the playoff.
Penn State to make the Playoff +350 (1 unit)
Penn State to win the Big Ten +2500 (0.5 units)
A common theme of my preseason picks has been me betting on unlikely outcomes for transfer-heavy teams. Penn State brings in 40 new guys from last year's team, which makes them much harder to forecast than most teams. They might suck, but also we've seen plenty of cases of portal-heavy teams clicking in year 1. I'm willing to bet on the latter, especially when you consider Matt Campbell's track record.
The schedule really works in their favor as well. They avoid Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon in conference play. That puts them in a great position to sneak into the conference title game.
Minnesota over 6.5 wins +150 (2 units)
I cashed on the Minnesota win total over last year and I'm back for more this year. This is the most consistently solid program in the country that no one talks about. They've cleared the 6.5 win mark 4 of the last 5 years and I expect more of the same this year. They return most key contributors from last year's team- they're one of the 10 or 15 most experienced teams in the country. Chief among them is QB Drake Lindsey who was very solid in his first year as a starter. This team will quietly go 7-5 or 8-4 again this year.
Michigan under 6.5 wins +400 (1 unit)
Michigan may very well end up in the playoff, but it's difficult to overstate how brutal their schedule is. They face 4 top 10 teams in Oklahoma, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. I think that my model is pretty in line with market consensus on Michigan (I have them 16th), it's just that the schedule gives them a real chance of being a top 25 team who goes 6-6.
Wisconsin to make the Playoff +2200 (0.5 units)
I was surprised when Luke Fickell kept his job at Wisconsin. The athletic department said they were going to redirect funds they would've had to use to buy him out and spend them on the roster instead. It shows- Wisconsin was a laggard in the early NIL era, but I like this roster. I particularly like QB Colton Joseph, who was excellent at Old Dominion last year. He threw for 2600 yards and rushed for 1000 more last year. No Badger threw for more than 700 yards or rushed for more than 400 last year. That should give you an idea of how improved this offense will be. The schedule is light (no Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana) and that gives them some chance of sneaking into the playoff.
Preseason College Football Picks- ACC
Clemson to make the Playoff +700 (2 units)
Clemson to win the ACC +1600 (1 unit)
Clemson over 8.5 wins +165 (1 unit)
Clemson has fallen on hard times in recent years- they haven't finished in the top 10 since 2020, and last year's 7-6 record was their worst in nearly 20 years. I'm hardly a fan of Dabo or the way he's managed his program in recent years, but these lines seem a little silly to me. Clemson's odds to win the ACC are similar to teams like Virginia and Pitt.
Yes, Clemson has a lot of questions (Christopher Vizzina at QB? yuck!), but they are way, way more talented than the Virginias and Pitts of the world. They're still recruiting high school very well, so the talent level on this roster is quite high. They have the best defense in the ACC. If everything clicks, they have top 5 upside.
Florida State to make the Playoff +1900 (0.5 units)
Florida State to win the ACC +4000 (0.5 units)
Is Florida State going to be a complete dumpster fire and get Mike Norvell fired? Probably. You do have to consider the bull case here though- like Clemson, this team has a lot of top end talent, and if everything clicks, the ceiling is high. They have similar odds to win the ACC as teams like Duke and Georgia Tech. Florida State has shown us flashes of excellence under Norvell (look at last year's win over Alabama!). In terms of raw recruiting rankings, this is one of the 15 or 20 most talented teams in the country, so I like a flier on their upside.
California over 8.5 wins +410 (1 unit)
California to make the Playoff +2200 (0.5 units)
California to win the ACC +4000 (0.5 units)
There's one reason I like this bet- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. He was a revelation last year as a true freshman, throwing for 7 YPA and looking like a future NFL QB. Of all the middling teams in the ACC, I like the opportunity to bet on the one that has a ton of upside at QB.
Miami (FL) to miss the Playoff +220 (3 units)
I'm certainly no Miami hater- the Hurricanes are 9th in my preseason ratings, which is about where I expect them to open the season in the AP poll. However, I don't think this line makes much sense.
I think a 10-2 Miami team is unlikely to make the playoff, and I especially think a 10-3 Miami team that loses the ACC title game is unlikely to make the playoff. The only reason they got in at 10-2 last year was because they happened to have a win over the team next to them in the playoff rankings. A 2026 Hurricanes team that loses to say, Notre Dame and Clemson will not be in good shape to make the playoff.
The ACC is full of landmines and the Notre Dame game is Miami's only marquee opportunity of the year. Lose the Notre Dame game and it'll be hard to get an at-large bid to the playoff.
Syracuse over 6.5 wins +400 (2 units)
This is a rare instance where I'm disagreeing with my model. My model doesn't like Syracuse this year, but I do. Syracuse was great in 2024, and showed signs of continuing it in 2025 (they won at Clemson in September). QB Steve Angeli tore his ACL in the Clemson game, then the backup also got hurt, and by November they were starting a 4th string walk-on who they recruited from the lacrosse team at QB.
Syracuse had injuries elsewhere- they had the worst injury luck of any power conference team last year. They were legitimately awful in 2025 but I just don't think that's that relevant. My model does not fully understand this. I also like Angeli, and think very highly of HC Fran Brown. The ceiling of the 2024 team is very much in play.
Stanford over 4.5 wins +210 (2 units)
It's the second year in a row that I'm on the Stanford train. The Cardinal cashed over 3.5 wins last year for me, and I expect this year's outfit to be better. They had some really atrocious QB play last year with Ben Gulbranson at the helm, but it will be improved this year with former Michigan QB Davis Warren. Stanford also recruits high school way better than people realize- they're in the middle of the ACC. This team is not as bad as people think.
Wake Forest to win the ACC +7500 (0.1 units)
The ACC is so chaotic every year that I feel I have to take a random lottery ticket and see if it pans out. Why not Wake Forest? HC Jake Dickert did a fantastic job to get the Demon Deacons to 9-4 last year and they should actually be improved at QB with Gio Lopez in town (his struggles last year were a Bill Belichick thing, not a Gio Lopez thing). Anything can happen at any time in the ACC.
Preseason College Football Picks- Big 12
Oklahoma State over 8.5 wins +490 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State over 9.5 wins +1000 (0.5 units)
Oklahoma State under 4.5 wins +270 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State is the only team this preseason that I’m betting both on and against. Simply put, they’re the hardest team in all of FBS to forecast. They return essentially no one from last year’s squad (not that they’d want to - last year’s team was one of the worst major conference teams I’ve ever seen).
The volatility on Oklahoma State is priced similarly to other teams, and that’s just not correct. There’s an argument they could be quite good (new HC Eric Morris brings excellent QB Drew Mestemaker with him from North Texas, as well as a dozen of other players). There’s an argument they could be quite bad (they were beyond awful last year and have 50+ new players). They’re an extremely high volatility team so I like the chance to bet on the wings of the distribution.
Iowa State over 6.5 wins +250 (2 units)
I’ve seen Iowa State picked last in the Big 12 by many people this preseason. I disagree. Yes, HC Matt Campbell left for Penn State and took QB Rocco Becht with him. But I really like the jobs that hew HC Jimmy Rogers has done both at Washington State and South Dakota State. He also has an established QB in Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor.
It’s well established that I like betting on wingier outcomes on teams with huge portal classes, as they’re a lot harder to predict. I like Iowa State and I like buying volatility here so I’m happy to get +250 on them to win 7+ games.
West Virginia under 4.5 wins +240 (2 units)
I am not a fan of what’s going on at West Virginia. The Mountaineers decided to go back to their old pal Rich Rodriguez, who returned to West Virginia last year 18 years after he left the first time. They struggled to a poor 4-8 season.
They’ve gone portal shopping to fix things, and I don’t love what I see. QB Michael Hawkins was really bad for Oklahoma in limited action, and the Mountaineers brought in G6 level players elsewhere. That’s not a surprise when you consider that this is one of the least resourced teams in the P4 from a roster spending perspective. West Virginia is broke, has a bad QB, and a coach whose scheme hasn’t been innovative in 20 years. I’m bearish on the Mountaineers.
Baylor under 5.5 wins +134 (1 unit)
The vibes at Baylor are a bit weird. A lot of people are surprised that HC Dave Aranda has made it to year 7, he was on the hot seat last year and the Bears failed to make a bowl. Declining confidence in Aranda has led to less donor money coming in for the roster, and I am not impressed in what I see here. They splashed some cash for DJ Lagway (that could work) leaving them with little money to spend else and it shows with a littany of mediocre G6 players. This is probably it for Aranda.
Utah to make the Playoff +500 (1 unit)
Utah had an excellent team last year, and very well could have made the playoff. They were in the top 10 in my ratings for a lot of the season. Yes, HC Kyle Whittingham departs, but they avoided getting raided in the portal because they promoted DC and coach-in-waiting Morgan Scalley. The most important guy to retain was excellent QB Devon Dampier.
Utah is my second favorite in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech, and they avoid the Red Raiders in the regular season. That sets them up well to reach the Big 12 title game, and I think that the Big 12 has a better chance of getting an at-large bid than people realize. There’s multiple paths to the playoff for the Utes.
Preseason College Football Picks- American
The American is in a state of flux this year. Last year as the league’s best season in nearly a decade, with Tulane, South Florida, North Texas and Memphis all challenging for the playoff. All four teams lost both their quarterback and their coach in the offseason (welcome to the G6!) and that makes for a wide open league this year.
Florida Atlantic over 6.5 wins +175 (2 units)
Florida Atlantic to win the American +3500 (1 unit)
North Texas came out of nowhere last season with the best G6 offense of the decade. If any team is going to reach that lofty bar this year, my pick would be FAU. The Owls went 4-8 last year but were better than their record, they had awful turnover luck (-21 turnover margin on the season!). QB Caden Veltkamp was quite solid at 7 Y/A and they did well to hold onto him. They’re also one of the most experienced teams in the G6.
HC Zach Kittley is the exact type of coach I like to bet on- a guy who ran a fun scheme as an OC at WKU and Texas Tech and has consistently gotten results better than expected. With Veltkamp at the helm, I like the upside in Boca.
South Florida over 9.5 wins +260 (2 units)
South Florida to win the American +800 (2 units)
Of last year’s top teams in the league, South Florida has the best chance to repeat their success. Yes, Byrum Brown and Alex Golesh are gone- but I like the replacements. The new QB is Michael Van Buren, who impressed as a true freshman at Mississippi State (he was the lone bright spot on an otherwise awful team). He could’ve started many places last year but chose to be a backup at LSU, I saw him in person in Baton Rouge in November. The new HC is Brian Hartline. I’m somewhat surprised he didn’t get a bigger job, I wanted my school (Michigan State) to hire him.
The other important factor is that South Florida has the most money of any team in the league. They’re allegedly funding the roster up to the $21MM revenue share cap- that’s going to be 3-4x the roster value of the weaker teams in the league. I like what I see in Tampa this year.
Tulsa over 6.5 wins +220 (1 unit)
Tulsa to win the American +5500 (0.25 units)
This blurb is going to read a lot like other G6 teams I like. An exciting coach who won big at lower levels (Tre Lamb took Gardner-Webb and ETSU, two woebegone FCS programs, to their best seasons ever), with a relatively experienced roster, and a solid QB (Baylor Hayes, who had 7 Y/A as a true freshman last year).
It’s a winning formula and I think Tulsa is another solid pick to buy a lottery ticket on.
North Texas under 5.5 wins +120 (2 units)
Of last year’s league contenders, South Florida is the clear pick to stay there, and North Texas is the clear pick to regress. HC Eric Morris went to Oklahoma State, and there’s more 2025 North Texas players playing for 2026 Oklahoma State (including future NFL QB Drew Mestemaker) than playing for 2026 North Texas. This is potentially the least experienced team in FBS, and is led by QB Tayven Jackson. Jackson is a 4th school guy who hasn’t stuck anywhere- he was pretty mid at UCF last year. It’s a brand new team with a poor roster budget and they’ll come crashing down to earth.
Army under 6.5 wins +225 (1 unit)
I was pretty surprised to see Army as one of the betting favorites to win the American. This is a very solid program, and the service academies have a level of roster cohesion other G6 teams would die for in the portal era. But this team was average at best last year- they lost to FCS Tarleton State. QB Cade Hellums does not have the stats of the sort of option QBs who have really thrived at Army or Navy. This looks like a middle of the pack team and not a title contender.
Preseason College Football Picks- Mountain West and Pac-12
Washington State to win the Pac-12 +980 (2 units)
Washington State over 5.5 wins +135 (1 unit)
Washington State had an odd year last year. They lost to 2 playoff teams (Ole Miss, James Madison) and 2 near playoff teams (North Texas, Virginia). They nearly won 3 of those games, despite being huge underdogs- most notably a 3 point loss to Ole Miss when they were a 32 point underdog. That is to say, they were better than their 7-6 record indicates.
The bad news is that HC Jimmy Rogers left after a year. The good news is I like what’s coming in the door. I love proven FCS quarterbacks at this level, and the Cougars have a good one in FCS All-American Caden Pinnick from UC Davis. The vol is generally a buy on teams like Wazzu that have 1st year coaches, and I think there’s some significant upside with Pinnick, so I like a flier on them to win the league.
San Jose State under 4.5 wins +120 (3 units)
I was shocked how bad San Jose State was last year. The Spartans were supposed to contend for the Mountain West but collapsed to 3-9. What’s more impressive is that they were so bad despite having a legitimate All-American WR in Danny Scudero (he, of course, has left).
This roster is a complete wasteland, there’s no one of note back from last year. The likely QB is Luke Weaver, if you’ve watched any Hawai’i football recently you know that he’s not good. This is one of the least resourced programs in the country, so any player worth a damn transferred out. I expect this to be one of the worst teams in the country.
North Dakota State over 10.5 wins +285 (1 unit)
Unlike Sacramento State, North Dakota State is more than ready to move up to FBS- they’ve won 10 of the last 15 FCS national titles. They actually had one of their best teams last year (they would’ve been one of the best teams in the G6!) but suffered a huge upset loss in the first round of the FCS playoffs.
I like buying vol on teams just coming up to FBS, and for North Dakota State it’s the upside tail that I like. We don’t really know how good North Dakota State is as they don’t play many games against like competition (only 3 games in the last 2 years with a single digit spread!). I think there’s a solid chance they’re immediately the best team in the Mountain West.
Nevada over 5.5 wins +240 (1 unit)
Nevada had one of the smallest budgets in FBS, so their coach left for conference rival Colorado State. Their reward since? 4 seasons of 2-10, 2-10, 3-10 and 3-9 football. Last year was a “good” 3-9 though- they lost a bunch of close games, and blew some leads. HC Jeff Choate is a proven winner at the FCS level (I always like to see that- winners win) and has drastically improved the roster compared to a few years ago. The new look Mountain West is full of garbage teams (Northern Illinois, UTEP, San Jose State etc.) and I think a semi-competent team like Nevada can squeak their way to a bowl.
Preseason College Football Picks- MAC
Sacramento State under 4.5 wins +150 (5 units)
This is one of my favorite bets of the preseason. Sacramento State is moving up to FBS this season, and the move has been incredibly poorly planned. This is an FCS roster that happens to be playing in the FBS- the move to the FBS wasn’t confirmed until after their coach was hired, and after the portal window closed. Other teams (Missouri State, Delaware) have had success in the first year after transitioning, but they had multiple years to prepare for the transition and get their roster up to the FBS scholarship limit. Not the case for Sacramento State, which doesn’t even have a full roster of scholarship players.
Sac State was not even a particularly good FCS team last year, falling short of the playoffs. They only got into the MAC because the university is paying several million dollars a year to the conference and receiving no media rights revenue in return. The situation has been a mess all around and I expect them to struggle in year one.
Central Michigan over 7.5 wins +230 (2 units)
Central Michigan was good to me last year, I had them over 5.5 wins and they went 7-6. I’m back for more this year. Former Army OC/OL coach Matt Drinkall had a nice year 1. This team is just as physical as you’d expect when you hear the phrase “Army offensive line coach”, they ran for nearly 5 yards a carry last year. They don’t have a QB, but they don’t need one playing that style of football. There’s so many G6 teams that try to play the same style of ball- I like teams at this level that zig when others are zagging. Their style makes them a tough team to prep for and they really lean into their scheme with some of the best linemen in the league.
Toledo over 8.5 wins +160 (1 unit)
It’s a new chapter at Toledo as Matt Candle took the UConn job after 10 years at the helm. It’s a lateral move for a coach who was always solid at Toledo, but never broke through to the top of the G6.
I really like Toledo’s hire in new HC Mike Jacobs. He has Ohio roots and had some excellent FCS teams at Mercer the last 2 years. Mercer is traditionally a bit of an FCS doormat- it’s not an easy place to win. He now walks into a well-resourced Toledo job- the Rockets are the consistent top program in the MAC (they’ve only been home underdogs once since COVID!). Combine the best roster in the conference with good coaching, and I like the upside here.
Eastern Michigan over 6.5 wins +150 (1 unit)
Eastern Michigan is one of the toughest jobs in the country. Before Chris Creighton got there in 2014, it had been 20 years since the last winning season. He’s 58-62 in the last decade. That may not sound great, but once you adjust for the difficulty level it’s clear he’s a miracle worker.
EMU has one of the most experienced teams in the G6 this year, led by returning QB Noah Kim. Kim, who started for Michigan State earlier in his career, is a solid veteran QB. I like the combination of a proven coach with an experienced roster full of his guys.
Akron over 5.5 wins +180 (1 unit)
Akron is one of the few jobs in FBS even harder than Eastern Michigan. That makes it all the more perplexing that they were able to procure such a good coach- former Penn State and Oregon OC Joe Moorhead. Moorhead would have a long line of suitors at power programs as an OC, Akron has done well to hold onto him.
Moorhead has an exciting quarterback in Reese Poffenbarger. Poffenbarger was excellent at Albany in 2023, although he hasn’t played in two years. Normally that would be a red flag, until you realize he lost a QB competition to Cam Ward at Miami in 2024 and Drew Mestemaker at North Texas in 2025. I’ll excuse Poffenbarger for losing QB battles to a number 1 overall pick and potential future first round pick- he was excellent his last full season as a starter. I like the upside at Akron this year.
Preseason College Football Picks- Sun Belt
The Sun Belt was a profitable league for me last year, as I was a big believer in James Madison in the preseason. I bet on the Dukes to win the league at +400 last year, and also bet some on them to make the playoff later in the season. Like Conference USA, it’s a league where rosters turn over a lot year to year and volatility is systematically underpriced.
Appalachian State under 5.5 wins +132 (1 unit)
Appalachian State under 4.5 wins +260 (1 unit)
The vibes are bad at App State. Since the Mountaineers came up to FBS around a decade ago, this has been arguably the most plug-and-play job in the country. They’ve just suffered their first back to back losing seasons since they were a D2 program in the 1980s, and I think HC Do well Loggains is taking things further in the wrong direction.
Loggains brought in an awful QB (Malachi Singleton, last seen completing 59% of his passes at Purdue) and gone heavy on the portal. That’s not what you want to see for a coach in year 2, who should now be settling on “his guys”- especially at a historic developmental program like App State.
Louisiana Tech to win the Sun Belt +980 (1 unit)
Louisiana Tech is moving from Conference USA to the Sun Belt this year, and I think they can contend for the league in year 1. The Sun Belt is wide open this year- James Madison dominated the league last year but lost every player of note. That leaves the door open for teams like Louisiana Tech. Sonny Cumbie is in his fifth year and that means there’s a lot more stability here than in most G6 programs. This was a solid team last year that was a bit better than their 8-5 record and I don’t think the step up to the Sun Belt is that big.
Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt +1120 (1 unit)
Arkansas State has a lot more consistency than most teams in the Sun Belt. They have more money than most teams in the league and that translates to their roster. Former Tennessee HC Butch Jones is in his sixth year so he’s been able to get his guys in the door. In a wide open Sun Belt that anyone can win, I like a punt on a decent Red Wolves team.
Preseason College Football Picks- Conference USA
Longtime readers know that my favorite bets of the year are my preseason college football bets. In particular, I’ve always liked the smaller conferences, as they’re less efficiently priced than the power conferences.
Conference USA is a good league to bet on some longshots since these teams all get raided in the portal every year. There’s this so many new players on each team that no one can be quite sure how good they’re all going to be, so the volatility is systematically underpriced.
Florida International to win CUSA +1100 (1 unit)
FIU was a pleasant surprise last year, posting their first winning record since before COVID. FIU had been in a fifteen year funk since they stupidly fired Mario Cristobal back in 2012, but now looks to be in decent shape.
The main reason why is they finally hired a good coach. Willie Simmons was a proven winner at the HBCU level at Florida A&M. I like hiring coaches with success at small schools at G6 schools, as mining the FCS thanks for talent has become a big part of the job. FIU also brings in a power conference level athlete at QB in former 4 star JJ Kohl. This team is a sleeper in CUSA.
Kennesaw State to win CUSA +1000 (1 unit)
Kennesaw State over 7.5 wins +235 (1 unit)
Speaking of coaches who had success at the HBCU level, Kennesaw State head coach Jerry Mack had a nice run at NC Central before moving on to be an NFL assistant. He then transformed Kennesaw State overnight- winning CUSA last year as a 100/1 longshot.
I’m bullish on his ability to keep the success rolling in year 2. I was pleasantly surprised to see how much talent they returned from last year, most successful G6 teams got raided in the portal. They have experience on the lines and a good coach, and that can get you far at this level.
Western Kentucky under 5.5 wins +310 (1 unit)
Western Kentucky under 6.5 wins +140 (1 unit)
I feel like I’m betting against Western Kentucky every year- this is the third year in a row I’ve had their win total under.
I don’t see much to excite me here, though- almost no one returns from last year’s team, except mediocre QB Rodney Tisdale (no relation to Ashley, at least as far as I’m aware). There’s a reason no one wanted him in the portal, and it has to do with his miserable 9 TD/7 INT ratio. Florida State washout Brock Glenn (who sucks) has been brought in to compete with him.
I also like taking an alt win total under here on a team that’s pretty much 100% portal, as the floor is quite low on teams like that.
Sam Houston over 4.5 wins +260 (1 unit)
Sam Houston to win CUSA +8000 (0.1 units)
Sam Houston was solid in 2024, and then lost longtime head coach KC Keeler to Temple (you know things are bad when Temple has more money than you). Phil Longo, known for his air raid offenses, struggled in year one, but that was to be expected given how different his scheme was from Keeler’s.
I like betting on the worst team in CUSA on principle alone, as this conference is such a random number generator that predicting who is going to be at the bottom is a fool’s errand.
Middle Tennessee to win CUSA +5500 (0.1 units)
Missouri State to win CUSA +2800 (0.25 units)
CUSA- where weird things happen. No one knows how good any of these teams are, myself included. The betting favorites for the league are Liberty (who is in a weird spot with HC Jamey Chadwell potentially unavailable due to health issues) and Western Kentucky (whose quarterback sucks). I like betting on the other random CUSA teams to win the league.
College Football Picks 2025- Bowls and Playoff
It’s been another great year for my college football picks. I’ve bet 412 units on the season and am up 101 units- a nice 24.5% ROI. The highlight of the season was my Duke to win the ACC bet at 100/1, although I only won 38 units on it as I hedged my exposure before the ACC title game.
I’ll write up a big retrospective on the season in a few weeks discussing what I learned and what lessons I’ve taken away for 2026. But for now- let’s close out the season with two small picks.
Futures*: +96.29 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Week 6: +3.83 units
Week 7: +2.04 units
Week 8: +8.16 units
Week 9: +0.84 units
Week 10: 0 units
Week 11: -4 units
Week 12: -1.13 units
Week 13: -2.05 units
Week 14: -1.09 units
Season Total: +101.28 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
James Madison @ Oregon (December 20th, 6:30 PM Central)
Of the two G5 teams that made the playoff, James Madison is definitely the better one. The Dukes dominated a week Sun Belt, and are now 28th in my ratings. That puts them in the same neighborhood as a team like Washington- who lost to Oregon a few weeks ago, but hung around until the fourth quarter. JMU is better than people give them credit for and can remain competitive here.
James Madison +21.5 -115 (1 unit)
California @ Hawai’i (December 24th, 7 PM Central)
This is the rare bowl game that is a true home game for one team- if they qualify for a bowl game, Hawai’i is generally placed at home in the Hawai’i Bowl. Unfortunately, my thesis for this bet has kind of gone out the window since I placed it. I was thinking that star Cal QB (and native Hawai’ian) Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele would enter the portal and not play in this game. Since I placed this bet, he has announced he’s coming back to Cal next year. This line has thus moved a few points against me.
Hawai’i ML -108 (1 unit)
College Football Bets and Rooting Guide- Conference Championships
It was a great week for my picks. I owe most of that to the ACC, where my Duke to win the ACC ticket at 100/1 odds is extremely live after they got the exact combination of results they needed (Duke win, Miami win, Cal win) to reach the conference title game.
Futures*: +94.25 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Week 6: +3.83 units
Week 7: +2.04 units
Week 8: +8.16 units
Week 9: +0.84 units
Week 10: 0 units
Week 11: -4 units
Week 12: -1.13 units
Week 13: -2.05 units
Week 14: -1.09 units
Season Total: +99.24 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
New Bets
Virginia ML -164 (62.7 units)
I’m hedging my Duke exposure. I’ll win 100 units if Duke beats Virginia and wins the ACC, and lose 1 unit if they don’t. My model is pretty ambivalent on hedging, but my gut is telling me to hedge. I expected this line to be around -195 or so- Duke is not that talented, and Virginia has looked a lot better in recent weeks. I’m locking in 38 units of profit here.
Miami to miss the Playoff -138 (2 units)
Vanderbilt to make the Playoff +610 (1 unit)
I also have two bets that I made live on Saturday- so the lines are quite stale. I don’t normally make live bets, but playoff odds were moving around a ton during the Saturday afternoon games and there were some good opportunities to be had. I do know it is pretty much impossible for my followers to tail these, so I apologize for that. However, I’ll put them on this page, just so they’re documented.
Rooting Guide
North Texas (-2.5) @ Tulane
The winner of this game will be in the playoff. We win 30 units if North Texas wins this game (from our UNT to make playoff 30/1 ticket), and we win 11.4 units if Tulane does. I also would personally like to see the G5 team(s) do well in the playoff, and I think that North Texas has a much better chance in a hypothetical playoff game than Tulane does.
Indiana vs. Ohio State (-4)
We win 15 units if Indiana wins this game (from our Indiana to win the Big Ten 15/1 ticket) and 1.8 units if Ohio State does. This line has been dropping all week- I saw it around 5.5 or 6 on Sunday. I’m not surprised- that line felt a little too large to me.
BYU vs. Texas Tech (-12.5)
We bet 7 units on the Big 12 to have under 1.5 playoff teams at -220 back in October. That bet will hit if Texas Tech wins here, and lose if BYU wins. The good news is that this line has been consistently moving towards Texas Tech.
Kennesaw State (-2.5) @ Jacksonville State
This was the best possible matchup for us in CUSA. We’ve been long both teams for a while- we win 11 units if Jacksonville State wins this game, and 5.1 units if Kennesaw State does.
UNLV @ Boise State (-4.5)
It’s been a wild season for our Boise State to win the Mountain West ticket. We have 5 units at -125, that we bet all the way back in May. Boise looked great until starting QB Maddux Madsen got hurt. This line got as long as +650 at one point in November, before the Broncos found their rhythm, and got some help from the tiebreaker gods.
Alabama vs. Georgia (-2.5)
We bet on both teams to win the SEC at +500, but bet a little bit more on Alabama. We win 8.2 units if Alabama wins this game, and win 5 units if Georgia wins.
Troy @ James Madison (-23.5)
These are the two teams we bet to win the Sun Belt in the preseason- JMU at +400 (for 2 units) and Troy at +1400 (for 1 unit). Given our other bets on James Madison to make the playoff, we are pretty indifferent as to who wins here. This line has been consistently moving towards JMU all week.
College Football Futures Rooting Guide- Week 14 2025
If you’ve been following my college football futures all year, it’s been a good year. I’m up 55 units on the year, but a lot of that money hasn’t been realized yet. A lot of it is tied up in bets like North Texas to make the playoff (at 30/1 odds!) that look quite good, but still haven’t cashed yet. In today’s rooting guide, I’ll walk you through what you should be looking out for this weekend if you’ve been tailing my futures.
Troy @ Southern Miss (-6.5)
The winner of this game wins the Sun Belt West, and will face James Madison for the conference title next week. We win 9.5 units if Southern Miss wins the division, and 15 units if Troy wins the conference. Whoever wins this game will be a massive underdog in the conference title game, so we’d much rather that Southern Miss wins here.
Vanderbilt (+2.5) @ Tennessee
We win 17 units if Vanderbilt makes a playoff. I think they’re about a coin flip to get in if they win this game, but they have no shot if they lose.
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State (+2.5)
We win 11 units if Jacksonville State wins Conference USA. The winner of this game is likely to face off against Kennesaw State in the conference title game, although the loser still has a small chance of making it in.
LSU @ Oklahoma (-10.5)
We will win 11 units on our Oklahoma tickets (both on them to make the playoff, as well as to win double digit games) if they win this game.
Miami (-6.5) @ Pitt
A Miami win here is good for us both because it helps Miami (who we’re a bit long) and also because it really helps Duke. Our 100/1 longshot ticket on Duke to win the ACC pretty much requires a Miami win.
Wake Forest (-1.5) @ Duke
Speaking of Duke, we need them to win this game to have a shot at the ACC title game. This line has moved and they’re now a small home underdog.
Ohio State (-10.5) @ Michigan
We bet Ohio State to go undefeated at +400 for 2 units in the summer. That will cash if they win this game.
Oregon @ Washington (+6.5)
We’re flat exposure to these teams, but an Oregon loss puts their playoff position in some jeopardy. That could help out other teams that we’re long (such as Vanderbilt).
Kennesaw State (-2.5) @ Liberty
We win 5 units if Kennesaw State wins Conference USA. They lock up a place in the conference title game with a win here.
SMU (-13.5) @ California
This is complicated. It would be great if SMU did really well (we have some wing calls on them, and make 4 units if they make the playoff). At the same time, if they lose this game, it’s not the worst for us- we’d make 4 units on our SMU under 8.5 wins ticket- and it helps Duke and Miami.
Texas A&M (-2.5) @ Texas
I have 2 units on A&M in this game at +10.5 from the preseason. I also win 5 units if A&M wins the SEC.
Alabama @ Auburn (+5.5)
We’re long Alabama to win the SEC, but we want Auburn to win this game. That’s because we’re long the other contenders (Georgia and Texas A&M). More importantly, an Alabama loss here is great for Vanderbilt, who we’re much longer.
Virginia Tech (+9.5) @ Virginia
We do win 8.8 units if Virginia wins the ACC (they make the conference title game with a win). However, a Virginia loss here paves the path for Duke to make the ACC title game, which would be great for us. Our exposure is unclear.
Temple @ North Texas (-19.5)
North Texas is two wins away from the playoff- they need to win this game, and then they need to win the American title game. They’re very likely to play Tulane in the title game, where they’d be a small road favorite.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota (-1.5)
We have 3 units on Minnesota over 6.5 wins. They have 6 wins and this is their last game of the season, so it will determine whether or not our ticket hits.
Toledo (-10.5) @ Central Michigan
Ohio (-6.5) @ Buffalo
Ball State @ Miami (OH) (-17.5)
We win 7 units if Toledo wins the MAC. For them to reach the conference title game (where they’d be a decent a favorite!) we need them to win and have either Ohio and Miami (OH) lose.
Georgia (-13.5) @ Georgia Tech
I bet Georgia Tech +12.5 on the lookahead line in this game back in the summer.
Boise State (-2.5) @ Utah State
We win 5 units if Boise State wins the Mountain West. For them to make the conference title game, they need to win this game.
San Diego State (-1.5) @ New Mexico
Our San Diego State to make the Mountain West title game ticket cashes if they win this game. They’re in decent shape though even with a loss. A San Diego State win here also helps Boise State.
Here are some other results to cheer for. These are a mix of games with a massive favorite, or games where the result would be only marginally helpful for us.
Indiana (-28.5), West Virginia (+23.5), UCF (+17.5), Memphis (-4.5), Utah (-11.5), Arizona State (+1.5), James Madison (-21.5), USC (-21.5), South Florida (-27.5), Tulane (-29.5), Stanford (+32.5)
College Football Futures Bets- Week 14 2025
I made another 5 units on my futures last week. My Oklahoma bets (Oklahoma to make playoff +550, Oklahoma 10+ wins +600) look quite good after they beat Missouri, and my bets on North Texas and Tulane continue to age well. I lost a bit in the MAC and CUSA last week, but still had a solid week.
This week is a big one for my existing bets, as I’ll get into in the rooting guide. I normally include my rooting guide for my futures in this post, but I’ve got enough futures bets this week that I’ll make a separate post for the rooting guide.
Notre Dame to miss the Playoff +790 (1 unit)
As I’ll detail in my playoff preview this week, the probability of a playoff logjam is increasing. The messiest scenario is where Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oregon, Michigan and Notre Dame all win. I think that if that happens, Notre Dame will be on the outside looking in. The committee has also had some weird rhetoric surrounding Notre Dame and Miami- I don’t think it’s going to happen, but it wouldn’t shock me if Miami randomly leapfrogged Notre Dame after Thanksgiving. This is worth a flier.
James Madison to make the Playoff +760 (1 unit)
If they win the conference (which they likely will- they’re -700 to do so), James Madison has two shots at the playoff:
(1) Hope someone other than Tulane or North Texas wins the American (unlikely- Tulane or UNT would have to lose as a 20+ favorite this week)
(2) Have Duke win the ACC, which is not impossible given the way the tiebreakers work out
I don’t think this is particularly likely, but I think it should be +600 or so. The market is still underpricing the “Duke wins the ACC” scenario.
SMU to make the Playoff Quarterfinal +600 (1 unit)
SMU to make the Playoff Semifinal +2000 (0.5 units)
I don’t think people have caught up to how good SMU is. They’re not just backing their way into the ACC title game- they’re a consensus top 25 team in the computers, and top 15 in my computer. If they win the ACC, their most likely playoff matchup is at Ole Miss, where they’d only be a 5 or 6 point underdog. I like buying some wing calls on the Mustangs and exciting QB Kevin Jennings.
Kennesaw State to win CUSA +175 (1 unit)
Kennesaw State is having a dream season- it’s their first season as a non-transitional FBS member, and they’re 8-3 with a real shot at the conference title game. I like this bet mostly for tiebreaker reasons- the CUSA title game participants are likely to be determined by computer ratings. Kennesaw State will make the conference title game with a win this weekend, and their computer rating is good enough that they’re in pretty good shape even with a loss.
San Diego State to win the Mountain West +150 (1 unit)
San Diego State is the only team with fewer than 2 losses in Mountain West play. That means they’re in the conference title game with a win over New Mexico. If they lose, it’ll come down to their computer rating, but they’re in very good shape on that front. The Aztecs also are guaranteed to host the conference title game if they win this weekend, and they’d either host a Boise State team who is missing their starting QB or an overrated UNLV team.
Texas Tech to miss the Playoff +1600 (0.5 units)
I bet on this last week at +980 and am adding a bit here. The “overfill” scenario of the playoff is growing in likelihood, and that is bad news for Texas Tech. I think the Red Raiders are in if they lose the Big 12 title game, but I’m definitely not certain, especially if Michigan beats Ohio State. There’s some decent value here.
Texas to make the Playoff +4000 (0.5 units)
I’ve been a huge Texas hater all year, and it’s worked out great for me. Texas under 9.5 wins and Texas to miss the Playoff were two of my biggest bets of the preseason and both have been spectacular. However, I do have to admit that there is some risk with them. If Texas beats Texas A&M this weekend, especially if they win big, and there is chaos elsewhere, there will be a lot of momentum to put them in the field (if you want to put your tinfoil hat on, ESPN will certainly want it). I think there’s maybe a 4% chance of that, and that makes this an attractive punt at 40/1.
College Football Picks- Week 14 2025
Last weekend was solid- I made 6 units on my futures and lost 2 units on my weekly bets. My bet on Fresno State was unfortunate- the Bulldogs were up 17-7 at halftime and in total control against Utah State before completely imploding down the stretch.
This is the last week of the regular season. In addition to the bets below, I also have some lookahead lines this week that I bet in the summer. I have two units on Texas A&M +10.5 against Texas, and one unit on Georgia Tech +12.5 against Georgia.
Futures*: +55.41 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Week 6: +3.83 units
Week 7: +2.04 units
Week 8: +8.16 units
Week 9: +0.84 units
Week 10: 0 units
Week 11: -4 units
Week 12: -1.13 units
Week 13: -2.05 units
Season Total: +61.49 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
SMU @ California (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
SMU has looked amazing the last few weeks. QB Kevin Jennings is a high ceiling, low floor player, and he’s really flashed his ceiling the last few weeks. He’s finally healthy after a nagging foot injury and dominated Louisville last week. The Mustangs are in to the top 15 of my ratings and should demolish Cal. I got this line at -10 this morning, and it moved a few points in my favor after Cal fired HC Justin Wilcox this afternoon.
SMU -10 -110 (1 unit)
Army @ UTSA (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
It’s been a weird season for Army. They beat Kansas State, but lost to FCS Tarleton State. They looked to be improving, but then lost to a bad Tulsa team last week. UTSA has one of the best running backs in the country in Robert Henry Jr. (who will be eligible to play another year of college football next year, despite turning 24 next month- gotta love these new rules). He’s been terrorizing opposing defenses all year and UTSA has better players and a great homefield advantage.
UTSA -6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Maryland @ Michigan State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I don’t talk about it much on here, but I am a Michigan State fan. We’ve been having an awful season, but have looked a little better in the last few weeks since turning to former backup QB Alessio Milivojevic- we nearly beat Iowa on the road last week. Maryland, meanwhile, has been a dumpster fire for two months. True freshman QB Malik Washington looks lost and the Terps haven’t been competitive in a game in over a month. I think Michigan State finally gets a Big Ten win here.
Michigan State -3.5 -110 (1 unit)
College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 13 2025
Last week was another good one for my futures and I’m now up 50 units on the year. My Texas shorts, after coming close to cashing against Kentucky and Mississippi State, finally are coming home to roost after the loss to Georgia.
I only have a few new bets this week- we’re mostly just crossing our fingers and rooting on the teams we’ve been betting all season.
New Bets
Oregon to make the Playoff -250 (9 units)
9 units? Have I lost my mind? Fear not- I don’t actually think there’s 9 units of edge here. I do think this is a bit mispriced, and I bet Oregon to miss the playoff at +220 for 4 units back in June. I think this should be around -290, so I am taking the opportunity to close out of my position for only a small loss.
SMU to miss the Playoff -425 (8 units)
This is the same principle as the Oregon bet. I bet a unit on SMU to make the playoff at +1200 last week, and it has moved a ton in my favor- both because SMU won, but also because Duke lost to Virginia. The Mustangs are very likely to make the playoff if they win the ACC, but they don’t control their own destiny in the ACC and they still have to play a tough Louisville team. I think this should be around -700 or so.
James Madison to make the Playoff +170 (2 units)
This was supposed to be like the Oregon and SMU trades, but it has gone sideways. I made this bet before the playoff committee revealed their rankings on Sunday. In those rankings, Tulane was shockingly ranked while JMU wasn’t- sending James Madison to make the playoff tumbling to +440. It would’ve been nice if I had waited to close my bet.
Texas Tech to miss the Playoff +980 (1 unit)
As I’ll discuss in my playoff preview column this week, the odds that we’re headed to a significant playoff logjam ticked up a good bit last week. The conventional wisdom is that Texas Tech will make the playoff even if they lose the Big 12 title game. In a scenario where we have a bevy of 2 loss Big Ten and SEC teams, I’m not so sure.
Duke to win the ACC 100/1 (1 unit)
This is a classic bet of mine- a tiebreaker bet. Most people assumed Duke was dead in the ACC race after losing to Virginia. They’d be wrong. The dream of an 8-5 ACC champion lives on- and here’s what it requires. We need Duke to win out against UNC and Wake Forest, and have two of SMU/Georgia Tech/Virginia take a loss. Then we need an (admittedly crappy) Duke team to win the ACC title. It’s unlikely, but it shouldn’t be 100/1.
Rooting Guide
Missouri @ Oklahoma (-5.5):
If Oklahoma wins out, we’ll win 11 units. Unfortunately for us, this line has dropped significantly this week with the news that Missouri QB Beau Pribula is returning to action (only three weeks after being carted off the field in an air cast!).
Jacksonville State @ FIU (-1.5):
We’re down to 3 contenders in CUSA- Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky. We win 11, 3.4 and 0 units respectively if each of those teams wins the league. Jax State can clinch a spot in the title game with a win and a Kennesaw State loss.
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech (-2.5):
We’re long Duke, Virginia, Miami and SMU. Georgia Tech is in the way of all of those teams- a Yellow Jackets loss helps all of our ACC positions.
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (-8.5):
We’ll make 17 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff. That requires two more wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, and maybe a little bit of help too. This line has been dropping given Kentucky’s improved recent form.
Duke (-7) @ North Carolina:
My Duke to win the ACC bet at 100/1 is already marking quite well. It does require them to win these last two games, but that’s not trivial against an improving UNC team.
North Texas (-17.5) @ Rice:
Our single biggest exposure is on North Texas. We have a unit on the Mean Green to make the playoff at 30/1. They’re 3 wins away from the playoff- and while this is a big spread, Rice runs a strange offense and it’s a road game.
California (-3.5) @ Stanford
This is it for our Stanford bet. We have the Cardinal over 3.5 wins at +140- they have one game against this, but it’s against Notre Dame. This is their last realistic shot at a fourth win for us to cash our ticket.
Tulane (-9.5) @ Temple:
Even if North Texas doesn’t win the American, we’re still in a decent spot because we’re also long the next most likely team (Tulane). This is a very losable game for the Green Wave though, and a loss here eliminates them from the playoff.
BYU (-2.5) @ Cincinnati:
We want Cincinnati to win here- it will help us for two reasons. First, it lowers the chance of 2 Big 12 teams in the playoff (we have Big 12 under 1.5 playoff teams). It also helps Utah’s chances at the conference title, and we win 20 units if they win the league.
Washington State @ James Madison (-14):
We might have closed our James Madison to miss the playoff position, but we have other positions (SMU, East Carolina) that would benefit from a JMU loss.
Minnesota @ Northwestern (-3.5):
We need Minnesota to pick up one win in their final two games to cash our over 6.5 wins ticket on the Gophers.
Washington (-10.5) @ UCLA:
We have UCLA under 3.5 wins, and they have 3 wins to date. This is their best chance for a fourth win, as they play USC next weekend.
Other big favorites we’re rooting for include Utah (-17.5), Michigan (-14), Boise State (-17.5) and San Diego State (-12.5)
College Football Picks- Week 13 2025
It was another solid week for my futures as I marked in another 12 units last week. My Texas shorts from the preseason have finally come in- I cashed my Texas under 9.5 wins ticket and am very close to cashing my Texas to miss the playoff ticket. I also won on Oklahoma, Texas Tech, BYU and North Texas. The only thing big that went against me was South Florida losing.
My weekly picks lost a unit last week- LSU failed to cover -5.5 when they purposefully didn’t score a touchdown up 1. Oh well.
Futures*: +50.51 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Week 6: +3.83 units
Week 7: +2.04 units
Week 8: +8.16 units
Week 9: +0.84 units
Week 10: 0 units
Week 11: -4 units
Week 12: -1.13 units
Season Total: +58.64 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
Utah State @ Fresno State (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)
It’s pretty rare that we make it this far into a season with a line that I just truly don’t understand. This is one of them. Fresno State is a solid G5 team- they went on the road and killed Boise State. Utah State is not- they’re yet to beat a bowl team. Fresno State also has a much more talented roster. I think Utah State is getting credit for losing in 2OT to a UNLV team that is themselves overrated. I like the Bulldogs here.
Fresno State -2.5 -112 (2 units)
Hawai’i @ UNLV (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)
Remember when I said UNLV was overrated? I’m betting against them here. The Runnin’ Rebels are the most fraudulent 8-2 team in the country, with a bevy of close wins over bad teams. Hawai’i, meanwhile, has an exciting QB in Micah Alejado and a defined scheme under HC Timmy Chang. Give me the ‘Bows.
Hawai’i +3.5 -110 (1 unit)
Illinois @ Wisconsin (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
The fact that Illinois was in the AP top 10 back in September is a complete farce. The Illini has crazy close game luck last year, and rode that to a bunch of unnecessary preseason hype this year. They’re 7-3 but haven’t done anything of note other than beating USC. Wisconsin, meanwhile has turned a corner in the last few weeks. I was worried they had quit on HC Luke Fickell, but that wasn’t the case in an inspired win against Washington. Wisconsin’s roster is more talented top to bottom and that makes them appetizing as a decent home underdog here.
Wisconsin +9.5 -105 (1 unit)
College Football Futures Bets- Week 12 2025
I have to apologize in advance for being slow in writing up my futures bets this week. I bet all of these on Sunday morning and a lot of the lines have moved pretty aggressively in my favor since then. I’ll try to be more timely with the writeups going forward.
I also apologize for not posting a rooting guide this week. I’m in New Orleans for my bachelor party (and headed to Baton Rouge tomorrow for Arkansas/LSU). I just haven’t had the time to write up the full rooting guide. Teams we want to win this week, in rough order of importance:
Georgia, Jacksonville State, North Texas, South Florida, Oklahoma, TCU, Arizona, Texas Tech, Utah
James Madison to miss the Playoff -230 (4 units)
I think the James Madison hype has gone a little far over its skis. Let’s break down what they need to have happen to make the playoff:
-They need to win out, including the conference title game. They’re favorites in every remaining game but have to go to Coastal Carolina and likely play Southern Miss in the conference title game. Call it a 50% chance.
-They need either Duke (or perhaps SMU) to win the ACC to jump them. Or, they could have some chaos in the American- ECU winning the league would certainly do the trick, Tulane winning might. There’s around a 20% chance Duke wins the ACC, a 13% chance SMU does, and a 10% or so chance they get a favorable outcome in the American.
Add it all up, and I think -230 is the absolute best odds I could see being reasonable here. I think it should be -330 or so.
Vanderbilt to make the Playoff +380 (3 units)
As I detailed in my playoff preview post this week, Vanderbilt is in very good shape to make the playoff if they win out. They host Kentucky and go @ Tennessee. They’ll be underdogs in Knoxville, but only by a field goal or so. They’ll be a heavy favorite at home against Kentucky. I like this line quite a bit- Vanderbilt has a decent shot at their first playoff bid.
SMU to make the Playoff +1200 (1 unit)
This one has moved a ton in my favor (it’s +490 now) and I do apologize for not posting these earlier in the week, but I’ve been busy with work. SMU does not control their own destiny in the ACC, but if they win out, they’ll be in pretty good shape to make the conference title game. This line priced a strong chance that SMU would get left out of the field if they win the ACC in favor of James Madison, but I pretty strongly disagree with that.
College Football Picks- Week 12 2025
Last week was my first losing week since September. My alt line on Coastal Carolina came close, but didn’t hit. I also marked out a few units on my futures- mainly on North Carolina beating Stanford. It’s not a big deal- I’m still up a lot on the season and the winning streak was bound to come to an end sometime.
Futures*: +38.18 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Week 6: +3.83 units
Week 7: +2.04 units
Week 8: +8.16 units
Week 9: +0.84 units
Week 10: 0 units
Week 11: -4 units
Season Total: +49.44 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
Arkansas @ LSU (Saturday, 11:45 AM Central)
I will be in attendance in Baton Rouge for this game- my first ever trip to Death Valley. I think people have gotten too low on LSU. This is still a very talented roster, and they don’t have the quit risk that other teams with fired coaches do- interim HC Frank Wilson is a long-time member of the staff. Arkansas has the worst roster in the SEC and LSU should roll here.
LSU -5.5 -110 (1 unit)
Marshall @ Georgia State (Saturday, 2 PM Central)
I’m continuing to bet against Georgia State. They are really bad- they’re now a bottom 5 team in FBS in my model. HC Dell McGee stepped into a weird situation for the Panthers and it has gone from bad to worse this year. Marshall is a solid Sun Belt team and should roll here.
Marshall -6.5 -115 (1 unit)
Virginia Tech @ Florida State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
I think that Florida State might be quitting on Mike Norvell. The Seminoles committed some ghastly turnovers in their loss to Clemson last week, and are now in danger of missing a bowl game yet again. Virginia Tech has been improved since firing Brent Pry, and FSU simply might not care anymore.
Virginia Tech ML +420 (1 unit)
College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 11 2025
I made 10 more units on my futures last week. My North Texas to make the playoff ticket at 30/1 continues to look quite good, as does South Florida to win the American. I also made a bit on my longs on Oklahoma and Duke last week.
New Bets
Miami to make the Playoff +330 (3 units)
I made this bet on Sunday, so I have to post about it- but it has aged poorly. I bet 4 units on Miami to miss the playoff at +230 a few weeks ago, and that looks great- my idea was to lock in some profit here on a line that I thought was a bit +EV. Unfortunately, the committee put Miami 18th in their initial rankings, and they now look unlikely to make the playoff even if they win out. I’ve locked in a profit, but I could’ve gotten a better price.
Rooting Guide
Stanford @ North Carolina (-7.5)
I’ve had this game circled on my calendar for my months. We win 5.6 units if Stanford wins 4 or more games- and they currently have 3 wins. We also win 8 units if North Carolina wins 3 or fewer games- and they also currently have 3 wins. Both teams have a tough remaining schedule and this could determine the outcome of both bets.
Oregon (-6.5) @ Iowa
We make 8.8 units if Oregon misses the playoff and 28 units if Iowa makes it. If Iowa pulls the upset here, it’ll put Oregon in serious playoff danger and put the Hawkeyes into the top 15 or so.
Tulane @ Memphis (-3.5)
This game is ongoing as I write. We win 11 units if Tulane wins the American and makes the playoff, and only 3 units if Memphis does. Perhaps more importantly, a Tulane win helps out South Florida and North Texas a lot from a tiebreaker perspective.
BYU @ Texas Tech (-11.5)
This line has grown over the course of the week, which is good news for us. We got very long Texas Tech a month ago and they’ll cement their position as Big 12 favorites with a win.
Jacksonville State @ UTEP (-1.5)
We win 11 units if Jacksonville State wins CUSA. They’re undefeated in conference play and move closer to making the conference title game with a win here.
SMU (-10.5) @ Boston College
We have SMU under 8.5 wins, and that will cash if they lose this game. It also would eliminate them from the ACC race, which would help our longs on Virginia, Duke and Louisville.
UNLV (-4.5) @ Colorado State
We have UNLV under 8.5 wins. They kept stringing together lucky wins to start the season, but are finally coming down to earth. A late season collapse would be great for us.
Southern Miss (-4.5) @ Arkansas State
I bet Arkansas State ML this week both because I think it’s good, and also to hedge our exposure here- Southern Miss essentially locks up the Sun Belt West with a win here. We’re flat exposure here.
Miami (OH) @ Ohio (-2.5)
This game was on Tuesday night, but we’re long Ohio and they’re now the MAC favorites after beating Miami (OH).
San Diego State (-6.5) @ Hawai’i
We got long San Diego State at the right time- they’re 4-0 since we bet on them to make the MWC title game. That will essentially be a lock if they win this game.
LSU @ Alabama (-10.5)
Our bet on Alabama to win the SEC requires them to keep winning. We also have LSU to miss the playoff- and that will fully be dead if they lose this game
Texas A&M (-7) @ Missouri
Our bet on Texas A&M to win the SEC will be on track with a win here.
Auburn @ Vanderbilt (-6.5):
We make 6 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff- they need a win here.
Georgia (-9.5) @ Mississippi State
We have 3 units on Georgia to miss the playoff at +198 from the preseason. We could use an upset here.
Other teams who are large favorites or underdogs we are rooting for, in rough order of importance:
Indiana (-14.5) @ Penn State, Ohio State (-29.5) @ Purdue, California @ Louisville (-18.5)
College Football Picks- Week 11 2025
I broke even on my weekly bets last week- I hit on SMU ML +400, but lost 3 units on Washington State. The Washington State bet was a weird one- Oregon State couldn’t get anything done on offense all game, but scored a late touchdown and won with under 200 yards of offense. On to the next week.
I won 10 units on my futures- my North Texas to make the playoff at 30/1 continues to look quite good.
Futures*: +41.4 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Week 6: +3.83 units
Week 7: +2.04 units
Week 8: +8.16 units
Week 9: +0.84 units
Week 10: 0 units
Season Total: +54.66 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’m placing this bet on Arkansas State for two reasons. First, I like it- I think these teams are reasonably evenly matched. Second, it hedges my existing exposure- I have two units on Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West at +475. That’s pretty much a lock if they win this game, and a little worse than a coin flip if they lose. Arkansas State is a decent team that has miraculously held onto QB Jaylen Raynor for three years- he is a great athlete and could play at some P4 programs.
Arkansas State ML +160 (2 units)
Wake Forest @ Virginia (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Virginia has been piling up wins by the skin of their teeth. Even last week’s double digit win over Cal was a bit of a fraud- it required a late pick six. However, I think the Cavaliers can roll here. They’re much more talented than Wake Forest, who might have the cheapest roster in the P4. Wake Forest got off to a good start, but they have no depth and that’s hurt them recently as the season wears along. I like Virginia to cruise here.
Virginia -6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Georgia State has been a disaster since Dell McGee took over as HC a few years ago. He started in a weird spot- former HC Shawn Elliot stepped down at an awkward time, costing McGee a full recruiting cycle. However, it’s gone from bad to worse- Georgia State probably won’t win an FCS game all year. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, has been much improved in recent weeks. I think they should really destroy an awful Georgia State team and I like the alt line here.
Coastal Carolina -21.5 +392 (1 unit)
College Football Futures Bets- Week 10 2025
I made a few units on my future last week. SMU losing as a favorite to Wake Forest was quite helpful. The Vandy win over Mizzou was a double win for us. We also made more on San Diego State, Southern Miss and Texas A&M.
New Bets
Cincinnati to miss the Playoff -425 (4 units)
There’s a straight arbitrage available here- Cincinnati is -425 to miss the playoff on DraftKings and +550 to make it on FanDuel. This is the much better leg of the trade. Cincinnati is having a solid season and has made it into my model’s top 25. The Bearcats need to win the Big 12 to have a shot at the playoff, and are touchdown underdogs at Utah this weekend and are roughly a coin flip against BYU and TCU. This is a decent team, but they are going to have to win two of those three games just to get to the Big 12 title game- where they’ll likely be a decent underdog to Texas Tech. The math isn’t mathing on this one.
Kennesaw State to win CUSA +170 (2 units)
Kennesaw State is one of the biggest surprises in the sport. I was skeptical for a while, but I have to admit that the Owls are legit- they exploded for nearly 9 yards per play last week. An added benefit for them- Conference USA’s tiebreakers are largely based on computer ratings, and they’re the highest rated CUSA team in most computers- this gives them a very good chance of making the conference title game.
Utah to win the Big 12 20/1 (1 unit)
This is a Big 12 team I’m more interested in betting on. Utah is physical on the lines and utterly dominated Colorado last week (they had a 380 to -10 yard edge at halftime!). They do already have two losses to fellow contenders BYU and Texas Tech- but they stand a decent chance at making the Big 12 title game if they go 4-0 down the stretch. It helps that this is a consensus top 15 team in the computers- I give them a 60% chance of winning out.
Iowa to make the Playoff 28/1 (1 unit)
Iowa’s offense has improved under former South Dakota State QB Mark Gronowski. It’s not good, but it has at least improved. That complements their consistently excellent defense and special teams.
If you look at Iowa’s resume, are we sure this isn’t like, the 12th best team in the country? They gave Indiana their closest game of the season (by far) and lost a close game to Iowa State on the road. They also obliterated Minnesota and Wisconsin. Iowa has a tough remaining schedule with Oregon and USC- but that’s why this bet is 28/1. I think that they will be competitive in both games.
Rooting Guide
Navy @ North Texas (-6.5)
This is the most important game of the week for us. We will win 30 units if North Texas makes the playoff (which they likely will if they win the conference). We’re also implicitly short Navy by being long other teams in the American (North Texas, Tulane and South Florida).
Vanderbilt @ Texas (-1.5)
We make 6 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff and make 16 units if Texas doesn’t. Texas has looked awful in the last two weeks and we can finally put their playoff hopes to bed with a loss here.
North Carolina @ Syracuse (-2)
We will win 8 units if North Carolina wins 0 or 1 more games this season. They are playing a lot better since their bye week and this game looks like a coin flip to me.
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky (-8.5)
This is a pretty important one for us- we’re long NMSU and short WKU. We’re also implicitly short WKU from being long the other CUSA contenders (Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Louisiana Tech)
Texas Tech (-7.5) @ Kansas State
We’re quite long Texas Tech- their Big 12 hopes get quite murky with a loss here. I quite like Kansas State, and it could be worth a hedge on KSU ML if you are so inclined.
Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida
We have some shorts on UGA from preseason that would have a chance if they lose here.
Tulane (-3.5) @ UTSA
Tulane is now the betting favorite to make the playoff out of the G5. We will win 11 units if they do- a bit less then the 30 and 20 units we win if North Texas or South Florida makes the playoff, but a respectable sum nonetheless.
Miami (-11.5) @ SMU
Our exposure here is complicated- we’re short both teams, and also have SMU ML, and also have some small longs on Miami. Net net- we prefer an SMU win here.
Cincinnati @ Utah (-8.5)
We’re long Utah and short Cincinnati. It would be great if Utah takes care of business here.
Oklahoma @ Tennessee (-3)
We’re long Oklahoma and short Tennessee. A Sooners win here puts Tennessee’s playoff hopes to bed.
New Mexico @ UNLV (-4.5)
Our UNLV shorts have some life, and a UNLV loss here has the added bonus of helping San Diego State.
Wyoming @ San Diego State (-10.5)
San Diego State has been a wagon since we got long them, we want that to continue.
UTEP @ Kennesaw State (-9.5)
Kennesaw State takes another step to winning the conference with a win here.
Louisville (-10.5) @ Virginia Tech
We make 6 units if Louisville makes the playoff, and they take a decent step to it with a win here.
Jacksonville State (-6.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
Jacksonville State needs to win this to keep realistic hopes at winning the league alive.
Virginia (-3.5) @ California
We make 8 units if Virginia make the playoff, and this is one of their trickiest games left.
East Carolina (-4.5) @ Temple
Our position in the American is complicated, but would be helped a bit by a Temple win.
Other teams who are large favorites or underdogs we are rooting for, in rough order of importance:
Indiana (-21.5) @ Maryland, Ohio State (-20.5) vs. Penn State, Stanford (+14.5) vs. Pittsburgh, Rice (+14) vs. Memphis