2025 College Football Preseason Picks (Part 4)
Intro
This is the last post in my preseason bets series for now. I’ve covered 7 FBS conferences so far, and today I’ll finish it off with the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the MAC.
No sportsbook has listed odds to make/miss the playoff yet. Once these lines are listed, I’ll likely be back with another post with some picks on those lines.
Sun Belt
Troy over 5.5 wins -115 (2 units)
Troy to win the Sun Belt +1500 (1 unit)
First time HC Gerad Parker took over the Troy job last year, and the Trojans slipped from 11-3 to 4-8. While this looks like a pretty big disappointment on the surface, there were reasons for optimism. Troy got unlucky, going 0-3 in close games. Almost no one returned from the 2023 squad, and they were figuring things out at the beginning of the season. They got a lot better as the season went along, going 3-1 down the stretch with two wins over bowl teams.
Troy is a great bounce back candidate this year because (i) last year was not as bad as it looked, (ii) they have some stability and decent returning production numbers and (iii) they recruit better than most teams in the Sun Belt. They have a much stronger winning tradition than other teams in the league, and this shows in their roster which I rank fourth in the Sun Belt in talent. Parker should get them back to a bowl this year.
James Madison to win the Sun Belt +400 (2 units)
James Madison was the best team in the Sun Belt last year but only went 4-4 in conference play. Many of their losses were in ridiculous fashion- they dominated ULM but lost thanks to awful red zone luck, they lost to Marshall in 2OT, and so on. I was in attendance when they hung 70 on UNC in Chapel Hill, and that was more emblematic of their season- at their best, they looked like the best G5 team not named Boise State.
HC Bob Chesney is in his second year in Harrisonburg after previous HC Curt Cignetti left for Indiana. Cignetti took a lot of his guys with him to Bloomington, and Chesney did a great job navigating that. Chesney came from Holy Cross, and is reunited with his former Holy Cross QB in Matt Sluka (who you may recall from his opt out at UNLV last year). I really like the idea of a QB and coach reunited- that has been a winning formula in the G5 in recent years.
James Madison has the most talented roster in the Sun Belt and perhaps the best QB as well. They are the clear favorites to win the Sun Belt and should be better than +400 to win the league. I might add a fraction of a unit on them to make the playoff at 40/1 or so when those lines get listed later this summer- I really like their upside.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky under 7.5 wins -125 (3 units)
This bet pains me as a self-avowed WKU fan. However, all signs point down for the Hilltoppers in 2025. Last year’s team was OK, going 8-6 and losing the CUSA championship game. They were a bit worse than their record indicated, suffering a few blowout losses, most notably in the CUSA title game to Jacksonville State. The big problem is that absolutely no one is back from that team. WKU got destroyed in the portal, and is in the bottom five in FBS in returning production. Former WKU OC Zach Kittley got the FAU job and took QB Caden Veltkamp with him, along with several other key players.
HC Tyson Helton clearly saw the writing on the wall for this year’s squad as his name was linked to a million jobs last offseason. However, he wasn’t able to land any of them, and that means he’ll have to attend to this mess. His strategy has been to bring in portal QBs, and while he’s had success with this in the past, I don’t like any of his options this year. This team is going to be super inexperienced in an improving CUSA.
New Mexico State over 4.5 wins -150 (2 units)
You may recall in my previous post that I’m betting on New Mexico under 3.5 wins this year. On the other side of the state, I like their rivals in Las Cruces this year.
I called New Mexico one of the most woebegone programs in FBS in that article. The same thing certainly applies to New Mexico State. The difference here is that NMSU has two things UNM does not- some roster stability and a quarterback. NMSU brought in Montana QB Logan Fife, who was a good FCS QB on a playoff team.
Most importantly, New Mexico State plays a pillow-soft schedule this year. Half their schedule is against teams that are either FCS or in the bottom 10 of FBS. There might be some Texas high school teams that could go over 4.5 wins against this schedule.
MAC
Ohio to win the MAC +250 (1 unit)
The MAC has really fallen into irrelevance since COVID. There hasn’t been a MAC team challenging for the top of the G5 since PJ Fleck’s Western Michigan team nearly a decade ago.
Throughout the irrelevance, there are two teams in the MAC that have built rosters better than the rest of the league- Toledo and Ohio. Ohio finally broke through after years of near-misses and won the MAC last year. While they did lose HC Tim Albin to Charlotte, they were able to keep a decent amount of their roster together. All of the second tier teams in the MAC (Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Miami (OH)) were absolutely eviscerated in the portal. This leaves Ohio and Toledo as the serious contenders for the league title, and I like Ohio a bit better.
2025 College Football Preseason Picks (Part 3)
Intro
So far in this series I have taken a look at the Power Two conferences and also the ACC and Big 12. Today I’ll take a look at my favorite preseason bets in the Mountain West and American.
Mountain West
Boise State to win the Mountain West -125 (5 units)
Boise State is the only team in the country that is minus money to win their conference. This still understates their dominance over the rest of the league. They are once again the clear best team in the G5- I give them about a 40% chance of making a return trip to the playoff.
The big news in Boise is the departure of Ashton Jeanty. The good news is that almost everyone else of note is back. They were able to hold on to QB Maddux Madsen despite heavy interest from other teams in the portal. Whoever replaces Jeanty will be running behind the best offensive line in the G5.
There is no team in the Mountain West who is remotely close to challenging the Broncos. UNLV was good last year, but lost HC Barry Odom to Purdue, and returns very little of their roster. Fresno State and Utah State were the third and fourth best teams in the league, and they both return little and are expected to take steps back.
Boise State travels to Notre Dame in early October. They will be significant favorites in every other game this year and their most likely outcome is another 11-1 season and another playoff bid.
New Mexico under 3.5 wins +110 (5 units)
There are around a dozen jobs in FBS where sustained success is impossible. This is one of them. Last year, former UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall made his return to coaching at New Mexico and led the Lobos to a 5-7 season. They were upset by Hawai’i to end the season, and would’ve made their first bowl in eight years if they had won that game. It looked like a promising start to the Mendenhall era.
Bad news for Lobos fans- Mendenhall left for Utah State after one year. QB Devon Dampier left for Utah (a signing that I really love- he was one of my favorite QBs in the portal). It’s not just Dampier- this roster was picked over clean in the portal. This year’s New Mexico squad ranks in the bottom five in the country in both my returning production and roster talent metrics.
I like the hire of former Idaho HC Jason Eck in the long term, but this is as complete a rebuild as you will ever see. The cupboard is completely bare and he has to build from scratch at one of the most woebegone programs in FBS. Such is life at New Mexico.
UNLV under 8.5 wins -125 (5 units)
The thesis behind this bet is pretty similar to the New Mexico bet. UNLV is a program that is historically awful but had a great season last year. They are also replacing their head coach (Barry Odom went to Purdue) and their QB, who graduated.
Odom came to UNLV two years ago and put together the two best years in program history. He went 20-8 in two years at a school that had never won more than eight games in a season and took them within a game of the playoff last year.
UNLV is going to be a lot better than New Mexico- hence why this win total is 8.5 and not 3.5. They have an exciting QB room with Alex Orji and Anthony Colandrea. They have a proven coach in Dan Mullen. But the rest of this team raises serious alarm bells for me. The recruiting classes that make up the core of this roster rank outside the top 100. Their lines are going to be abysmal.
Even in the NIL era, it takes several years to build a full roster. UNLV is not there yet, and I expect them to take a significant step back this year.
American
South Florida to win the American +1000 (1 unit)
South Florida has a winning tradition stretching back to their first days in FBS in the early 2000s. They finished ranked in 2016 and 2017. In 2018 they started 7-0 and were ranked in the AP Poll. From there, they went an amazing 8-43 in the next four and a half seasons.
Alex Golesh inherited this mess two years ago and has done a remarkable job of steadying the ship with back to back 7-6 seasons. I think this is the year they could truly break out. QB Byrum Brown was electric in 2023, but was injured for most of 2024 and clearly not 100% when he did take the field. He threw for 7.7 yards/attempt and ran for 800 yards in 2023 and now looks fully healthy. I expect him to be the best QB in the G5.
According to my measures, South Florida is near the top of the conference in overall roster talent, behind only Tulane and Memphis. When you add in an electric QB, I think that there’s great value at this price.
2025 College Football Preseason Picks (Part 2)
Intro
In my first post, I covered my preseason picks for the SEC and Big Ten. In this post, I’ll cover the ACC and Big 12. Stay tuned for part 3 where I’ll go through my preseason picks in the G5.
ACC Preseason Picks
Clemson over 9.5 wins -105 (3 units)
Clemson to win the ACC +170 (1 unit)
Clemson to win the National Championship +1600 (1 unit)
Clemson is getting a lot of buzz this preseason, and for good reason. Unfortunately I am a bit late to the party here- I saw them at 22/1 to win the national title earlier in the spring. But there’s a few good reasons why everyone and their mother loves the Tigers this year.
Most importantly, everyone is back. Clemson had only three players drafted in April. This speaks more to the fact that they have a ton of returning talent than last year’s team being bad. The consensus big board projects them to have five first round picks in the 2026 draft, including two in the top ten.
Second, Cade Klubnik took a huge step forward last year. In his second full year as the starting QB, he jumped from 6.3 yards/attempt to 7.5 yards/attempt.
Third, Dabo has finally started to get with the times. Clemson is not signing huge portal classes, but they did bring in a few guys this year. I think that the optimal way to construct a roster these days is to focus on high school recruiting, and plug a few holes each year in the portal. Clemson is moving in that direction.
This is the best team in the ACC and it is not close. I expect this Clemson team to look more like the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence era teams than the recent disappointments.
SMU under 8.5 wins +100 (4 units)
The argument for SMU is simple. They were in the playoff last year, and could have won a game in the playoff if QB Kevin Jennings didn’t put together an atrocious performance against Penn State. Jennings is back, so they should improve this year.
I am not buying it. Jennings is a very solid QB, but the rest of this roster does not impress me. This is still only their second year in the ACC, and thus the bones of their roster are formed from recruiting classes in the American days. They’ve brought in a ton of players in the portal since joining the ACC, but my model is generally not kind on teams with weaker high school recruiting and heavy portal additions. There is not a surefire NFL player on this entire roster.
SMU also has a much tougher schedule this year. The Mustangs play 5 top 30 opponents, including Baylor and TCU in non-conference play. When you add it all together, they seem like a clear regression candidate in 2025.
Big 12 Preseason Picks
Oklahoma State under 4.5 wins +140 (3 units)
I made a lot of money betting against Oklahoma State last year. The Cowboys started the season as co-favorites to win the Big 12 and wound up 3-9 overall and winless in conference play. I believe I went 4-0 ATS betting against them over the course of the year.
Mike Gundy is back for his 21st year in Stillwater after a tumultuous offseason where he was nearly forced out, but eventually agreed to a pay cut. However, I don’t see much room for optimism this year. Oklahoma State’s recruiting has slipped into the bottom half of the Big 12, and they have one of the worst QB rooms in the power conferences. RB Ollie Gordon, who has been their best player for two years, is also gone to the NFL. This looks like one of the worst teams in the power conferences to me. 4.5 is a low total, but the Big 12 doesn’t have many bad teams, and I expect the Pokes to be underdogs in 10 games.
Arizona State to win the Big 12 +600 (1 unit)
You have to love the Big 12- no team has better than +500 odds to win the conference. Last year, Arizona State was picked dead last in the preseason media poll and won the league. This is truly the one power conference where anything can happen.
Of course, that’s why I’m betting on Arizona State to repeat as conference champions this year. Yes, star RB Cam Skattebo is gone, but nearly every other player of note is back. The Sun Devils rank near the top of FBS in returning production. QB Sam Leavitt is flying up NFL draft boards. The Sun Devils also played their best football at the end of the year, and those games were without future first round WR Jordyn Tyson who will be healthy for 2025.
No other team in the Big 12 has the combination of experience and high-end talent that Arizona State does, and that makes them good value at this price.
2025 College Football Preseason Picks (Part 1)
Intro
2024 was a banner year for my college football picks. I wagered around 250 units for the year and finished +43.04 units on the year. I had two main takeaways from my strong performance in 2024:
First off, there is more opportunity in betting futures than there is in betting on individual games. I went +40 units betting on futures and +3 units betting on individual games. I think there is a simple explanation here. Betting on individual games is well understood and relatively easy to model. Betting on longer-term outcomes (such as odds to make the playoff) is harder to model. Since last year was the first year of the 12 team playoff, I think that the sportsbooks had trouble pricing things at times and I was able to take advantage. My best bet of the year was Indiana to make the playoff 30/1 in mid-September. I made a lot of these longshot bets throughout the year, because I felt that there were some big mispricings there. Most of them didn’t hit, but I bought several cheap lottery tickets, and this one hit.
Secondly, my instincts were right and I should have bet earlier. I generated an enormous amount of closing line value last year, both on my individual game bets and on my futures bets. I had tons of things move in my favor after betting them and very little move against me. There were a handful of times where I hemmed and hawed about a bet and ended up regretting it because the line moved in my direction afterwards.
I have spent a lot of time in the offseason building up the infrastructure of my model to better calculate things such as odds to make the playoff or odds to win a conference title. I was estimating a lot of these probabilities last year but now have a more robust way to calculate them that should save me a lot of work.
Today I’ll go through some of my preseason bets- I want to get these picks out there before the lines move too much. Later in the spring I will post my preseason projections for all 136 FBS teams.
Betting History
2018: -5.88 units
2019: +30.71 units
2020: +34.36 units
2021: -34.75 units
2022: +9.31 units
2023: -2.52 units
2024: +43.04 units
Total: +74.27 units
As you can see, 2024 was the best year in the history of my model- only 2019 and 2020 can compare. I don’t think I’ll be able to put up a 2024 type performance every year, but I feel pretty confident I can turn in another positive year in 2025.
SEC Preseason Picks
Texas under 9.5 wins +160 (4 units)
Suppose I told you the following facts about a team:
-They were the fourth best team in the country last year
-They lose 12 NFL draft picks, including 6 in the first 2 rounds
-They face arguably the toughest schedule in the country, including 4 top 15 teams away from home
I think it would be reasonable to expect this team to take a pretty decent step back this year. I certainly would not have this team as a top tier national title contender.
I understand that this argument doesn’t mention the 10,000 pound gorilla in the room, Arch. I do expect 2025 Arch Manning to be a better QB than 2024 Quinn Ewers was, perhaps a much better one. But Texas was only “very good” last year- they were not elite. And they lose so much outside of Arch that I still think they will regress this year. Texas has all the money in the world to bring in talent to replace those guys, but my model only sees them as the third most talented SEC roster, behind Alabama and Georgia. Texas will be a good team this year but not quite to the level of last year.
I will likely throw in another unit on Texas to miss the playoff when that line gets listed. I expect to get that at +125 or so.
Oklahoma over 6.5 wins -130 (3 units)
Oklahoma to win SEC +4500 (0.25 units)
On the other side of the Red River, I am bullish on Oklahoma this year. The Sooners went 6-7 last year and HC Brent Venables knows his job is on the line this year. Venables completely overhauled the offense. The Sooners signed the top portal class in the country on the offensive side of the ball, according to my rankings. The highlights are former Washington State QB John Mateer (with his OC, Ben Arbuckle also now in Norman) and former Cal RB Jaydn Ott. The Sooners are the most experienced team in the SEC, and grade out as the fifth most talented according to my numbers. I like their chances to make a playoff run this year, and I will likely throw an extra unit on them to make the playoff when those lines are listed.
Alabama to win the SEC +500 (1 unit)
Alabama is normally +500 to win the national title in the preseason. I can get them at +500 to win the SEC? Sign me up!
I know that 2024 was a disappointment to Alabama fans, as they went 9-3 and finished 8th in my ratings. But they lost comparatively little to the draft (by Alabama standards, at least) and have the best tackle, second best receiver and second best edge rusher in the sport. I honestly think that they have the best roster from 1 to 85 of any team in the country. The big question is QB. It sounds like Ty Simpson will win the job. Whoever is under center will have the luxury of having Ryan Williams to throw to.
Alabama’s floor is certainly lower than it has been in over a decade now that Saban is gone. But I think their ceiling is still that of the best team in the sport and I like the value here.
Big Ten Preseason Picks
Minnesota over 6.5 wins -150 (3 units)
One of the staples of the college football preseason is the annual debate of “which Big Ten West team is going to be good this year?”. The normal answer is Wisconsin or Iowa. This year, I am going a bit out of the box and suggesting Minnesota.
You probably forgot how good Minnesota was last year. I certainly did, because they did it in the most boring way possible- going 8-5, running the ball and playing defense. They finished the year 26th in my ratings. They return pretty much all the key contributors from last year’s defense and will have a top 10 unit in the sport on that side of the ball this year. I expect them to be a boring 8-4 team once again this year.
Way-Too-Early 2025 College Football Top 25
With the national championship game now firmly in the rear view mirror, it’s time to turn our attention towards the 2025 college football season. A way too early top 25 is always an exercise in guesswork, as we still have the spring portal window and probably a coaching change or two before rosters get finalized. Still, I got a decent amount of stuff correct in last year's version of this list. I had SMU higher than pretty much any other list. I also had Florida State and Ole Miss lower than anyone else. While there were some misses (I’m still perplexed as to how Arizona regressed so much in 2024), I would say I overall did well. Hopefully we can look back at this list in a year’s time as fondly.
Top 25
1. Ohio State
Most teams at the top of this list will be breaking in new quarterbacks, but only one of them has Jeremiah Smith. Smith is such a game-breaking weapon that he alone makes me want to rank Ohio State #1. Ohio State will also have the best defensive player in the sport in Caleb Downs. I think that 5 star Julian Sayin will win the job here and he will have the most talented roster in the sport at his disposal.
2. Texas
Of all the quarterbacks at the top of this list, Arch Manning figures to be the best. Texas loses a lot to the draft, but Sark has stacked up enough top classes that they have plenty of replacements waiting in the wings. That statement also holds for the next few teams on this list, but they don’t have Arch. Texas opens the season at Ohio State on August 30th and I think that should be a #1 vs. #2 matchup.
3. Oregon
Oregon has the recruiting and NIL apparatus to have a top five roster in the sport every year. Evan Stewart is probably the best receiver in the sport not named Jeremiah Smith, and the Ducks should have the best front seven in the country. I’m pretty excited for Dante Moore to take the reins at QB, we saw flashes of his immense talent at UCLA in 2023 and he had all of 2024 to learn from Dillon Gabriel and develop.
4. Penn State
I have seen Penn State higher than this on most other lists, but I don’t believe in Drew Allar enough to put them in the top 3. They’ll have the best running game in the sport with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton both returning, but I expect them to be pretty one dimensional offensively. As usual, that will be enough to get them to 10-2 and a playoff bid before they have to face the best of the best.
5. Georgia
Georgia was quite far from their usual standard in 2024. It says a lot about what Kirby Smart has done that an SEC title and playoff quarterfinal is “far from the usual standard”, but this was unquestionably the weakest Georgia team since 2020. I liked what I saw from Gunner Stockton at the end of the season and think Georgia’s throwing game will be significantly improved next year. I believe in Kirby and the recruiting enough that I can’t put the ‘Dawgs outside the top 5.
6. Notre Dame
I think that 5 star CJ Carr will probably win the QB job here, and he can do a bit more with his arm than Riley Leonard could. He may not need to, though. Jeremiyah Love might be the best returning RB in the country and the Irish are better in the trenches than every team they’ll play in the regular season. Notre Dame’s talent level is not quite at the tier of those above them on this list, but they are closing that gap.
7. Clemson
I’m an avowed Clemson hater, but even I have to admit that the Tigers should be pretty good next year. Cade Klubnik might be the best returning QB starter in the country, and Dabo has finally started bringing a few players in via the portal. Their talent acquisition is still a bit behind the teams above them on this list, but they are still the ACC favorites.
8. Alabama
Alabama has too much talent on their roster to fall lower than this. People have forgotten how awesome Ryan Williams is because Alabama faltered down the stretch, but he will be a monstrous weapon for whoever wins the QB job in Tuscaloosa. I think there’s a clear drop from the Crimson Tide to the rest of the list.
9. Kansas State
After the top 8 teams, I’m happy to take a flyer on some other teams. Kansas State is a perfect pick- they were much better than their 9-4 record in 2024 and return an excellent QB in Avery Johnson and an excellent RB in Dylan Edwards. Roster data is still fluid, but as of now it looks like they’ll have the most talented roster in the Big 12 supporting those two. They’re my pick to win the conference.
10. Louisville
2024 was the second year in a row that no one really noticed how good Louisville was. They only went 9-4 (partially thanks to a mind-bendingly stupid loss to Stanford) but looked excellent at times. I think they’re upgrading significantly at QB- USC was stupid to run Miller Moss out of town, and Louisville was very fortunate to grab him in the portal. I’ll slot the Cardinals in for an at-large berth in the playoff.
11. Florida
There’s one reason to be bullish on the Gators in 2025: DJ Lagway. He is a dynamite playmaker and only figures to get better with a handful of college starts under his belt. The schedule is brutal once again, but Florida played like a top 10 team in the country down the stretch and I think that form can continue into 2025.
12. South Carolina
LaNorris Sellers is a top 5 returning starter at QB in the country. The Gamecocks lost a lot around him (Kyle Kennard, Rocket Sanders etc.) but did well to hold onto their players who had eligibility remaining. Sellers alone should be enough to keep South Carolina in the playoff mix once again in 2025.
13. LSU
QB Garrett Nussmeier is the second favorite for the Heisman behind Arch Manning, but I’m a bit concerned about the rest of the offense. LSU has to replace two phenomenal tackles including a projected top 10 pick in Will Campbell. They also have a brutally difficult schedule, starting off the season with a road trip to Clemson before a full SEC slate. I will go against the consensus and pick them to miss the playoff.
14. SMU
Kevin Jennings may have been awful against Penn State, but he was excellent before that and he returns at QB. The rest of the roster is still not really up to the level of the teams above them on this list, but the Mustangs should have top 10 QB play in the country and that is enough to put them squarely in the ACC conversation.
15. Baylor
We’ve entered the part of the list where this becomes a bit of a dart throwing exercise. If I’m going to throw a dart on a team, I’d like it to be a team with a QB I like. Sawyer Robertson took over after Dequann Finn was benched and Baylor looked like a new team with him under center. The Bears start the season with two good teams in Auburn and SMU- if they win those, they’ll be the team to beat in Big 12 play.
16. Tennessee
Tennessee is the rare team on this list who I expect to get worse in 2025 despite returning their QB. Nico Iamaleava is back, but everything else that made this team great is not. The offensive line will undergo significant turnover and every wide receiver of note is gone. It would be a significant achievement for Josh Heupel to get his team back in the playoff.
17. Indiana
Out goes one transfer QB, in comes another. As a Cal fan, I saw a lot of Fernando Mendoza last year and I am quite bullish on him. He headlines another stellar portal class in Bloomington and he will have a fantastic receiver to throw to in Elijah Sarratt. The schedule (at Oregon, at Penn State) is not as kind as it was in 2024 but a return trip to the playoff is a distinct possibility.
18. Oklahoma
Oklahoma has not fired a coach in my lifetime. If they do not show significant improvement in 2025, that will change as patience is wearing thin for Brent Venbales. I like their chances to get back in the top 25- I am a big believer in new QB John Mateer and the Sooners still have a much higher talent level than most teams in this section of the rankings. However, it’s do or die this year.
19. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech is extremely lucky to have QB Haynes King coming back to school for another year. His physical style was a great fit for this Georgia Tech team that finished the year in the top 25 of my ratings for the first time in nearly a decade. They’ll be underdogs against Clemson and Georgia, but I think they’re better than the other 10 teams on their schedule.
20. Auburn
Good news, Auburn fans- Payton Thorne is gone. As a Michigan State fan I was amazed to see how much he regressed over the course of his career. Jackson Arnold will be the starter here after transferring in from Oklahoma. Improved QB play and improved close game luck (Auburn was legendarily bad in this department in 2024) should see Auburn in a bowl in 2025.
21. Texas A&M
This is about as low as I can reasonably put a team with top 15 talent and a returning QB. However, Texas A&M’s front seven is going to go from being a significant asset to a significant detriment with 3 early round NFL draft picks departing. Their offense is going to be great (WR KC Concepcion was a great portal addition) but the defense is going to be a sieve.
22. Arizona State
Arizona State was excellent at the end of the year but took a bit of time to get going. They’re going to have to be more of a passing team next year with Cam Skattebo departing, but they should be able to do that with Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson back. I don’t have them as my top Big 12 contender (their roster is not as strong as Kansas State and Baylor), but they are in the conversation to repeat as conference champs.
23. Ole Miss
This is by far the biggest drop of any team on the list. Ole Miss loses an obscene amount of talent- they figure to have six or seven players drafted in the first 3 rounds of the draft. Unlike the Ohio States and Georgias of the world, they don’t have several years of top 5 classes waiting in the wings to replace them. They should still be a bowl team in 2025, but I think they missed their window for a deep run in 2024.
24. Kansas
Somehow, Jalon Daniels has another year of eligibility. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in college football. The Jayhawks played like a top 15 team in the second half of the season once he got back to full speed. They should be a contender in a crowded Big 12.
25. Michigan
Michigan loses a ton to the draft with every main contributor to their 2023 national title team out the door. Michigan will be young and talented- both at QB (where I expect Bryce Underwood to start as a true freshman) but also elsewhere on the roster. 2025 figures to be a year to build towards being a prime contender again in 2026.
Also Considered: Duke, Miami, Missouri, BYU, Illinois, USC, Arizona, TCU, Utah, Virginia Tech, UNLV, Arkansas, Boise State
Projected Playoff
1 Ohio State
2 Texas
3 Clemson
4 Kansas State
5 Oregon vs. 12 UNLV
6 Penn State vs. 11 Florida
7 Georgia vs. 10 Louisville
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 Alabama
The general structure of this playoff looks pretty familiar- 4 SEC teams, 3 Big 10 teams, 2 ACC teams, Notre Dame, 1 Big 12 team and 1 Group of Five team. The only team here that I didn’t cover above is UNLV- there’s not a clear front runner for the top G5 team in 2025, but I’ll throw my hat in the ring for the Rebels. While they do bring in a new coaching staff, Dan Mullen is one of the most talented offensive minds in the sport and I am incredibly excited to see what transfer QB Alex Orji can do in his offense.
College Football Postseason Picks- Part 2
These will likely be my last picks of the season. Don’t forget that in addition to the one pick below, I also have a lot of exposure to Notre Dame- I bet on the Irish to win the national title at 40/1 odds back in October.
I’ll be back with more college football content in a few weeks- around the time of the national championship game, I’ll post an early look at my 2025 preseason top 25.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Week 12: +0.73 units
Week 13: -0.2 units
Week 14: +8.1 units
Week 15: -2 units
Postseason Pt. 1: -2.63 units
Preseason and In-Season Futures: +36.84 units
Total: +38.55 units
Arizona State vs. Texas (Peach Bowl: January 1st, 12:00 PM Central)
When the playoff bracket was revealed, Arizona State was the underdog whose chances I was most excited about. Not only did they finish the year on a six game winning streak, but they covered all six games and vaulted from 50th to 16th in my ratings. They also have much better skill talent than you’d expect from a playoff underdog- QB Sam Leavitt has the talent and recruiting pedigree of an SEC quarterback. I’ve also been a seller of Texas all year, which sets this game up for a nice play on ASU.
Arizona State +14 -112 (2 units)
College Football Bowl Game Picks 2024
These will likely be my last picks of the college football season. I’m extremely pleased with how this season has gone- my futures bets were excellent this season, highlighted by my 30/1 Indiana to make the playoff bet. This is going to go down as my most profitable season ever, surpassing 2020. I learned this year that I have a lot more edge betting futures than individual games- there are fewer people betting futures, so it’s just a less efficient marketplace. I also had a great season against the spread- I finished the regular season first out of 27 computer models against the spread in all games.
My focus will turn to college basketball for the next few months, although I’ll have a little bit more college football content this season. I’ll aim to publish a preseason top 25 for 2025 around the time of the national title game.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Week 12: +0.73 units
Week 13: -0.2 units
Week 14: +8.1 units
Week 15: -2 units
Preseason and In-Season Futures: +36.84 units
Total: +41.18 units
SMU @ Penn State (December 21st, 11 AM Central)
My model has been high on SMU all season and continues to be now- I have them 7th in my ratings headed into the playoff. They suffered from some boneheaded mistakes against Clemson but were definitely the better team on a down to down basis. Penn State has been a clear step behind the elite teams all year and is yet to beat a team as talented as SMU. This seems like the most likely first round playoff upset to me.
SMU +9 (2 units)
SMU ML +260 (1 unit)
Tennessee @ Ohio State (December 21st, 7 PM Central)
Ohio State was the top team in my model by a large margin headed into the Michigan game. I still don’t fully understand how they looked so bad against Michigan- missing multiple short field goals certainly doesn’t help- but I think they have the highest upside of any team in the country. Tennessee is the worst P5 team in the playoff and is less talented than Ohio State at every position. I think the Buckeyes should roll here.
Ohio State -7 -110 (2 units)
Rutgers vs. Kansas State (Rate Bowl: December 26th, 4:30 PM Central)
Kansas State was just a few bounces away from a really special season- my model liked them a lot in the second half of the year and I’ll likely be picking them to win the Big 12 in 2025. Rutgers, on the other hand, is much worse than their record. Their win over Washington was the most fluky result of the season, and they piled up wins against the dregs of the Big Ten. Kansas State is the vastly better team here.
Kansas State -6.5 -110 (2 units)
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green (68 Ventures Bowl: December 26th, 8 PM Central)
I bet a good bit on Arkansas State over 5.5 wins in the preseason, and I was very lucky to hit that bet. QB Jaylen Raynor regressed significantly in his sophomore season and the Red Wolves needed a very generous call to beat FCS Central Arkansas. Bowling Green, on the other hand, was the best team in the MAC this year. They lost a close game to Miami (OH) that cost them a chance to play for the MAC title. Before that game, they won 5 consecutive conference games, all by double digits. I think the Falcons keep rolling here.
Bowling Green -6.5 -110 (2 units)
Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt (Birmingham Bowl: December 27th, 2:30 PM Central)
Georgia Tech finished the regular season 24th in my model, around 10 or 15 spots higher than where most other people have them. Both of Georgia Tech’s QBs (Haynes King and Aaron Philo) have announced they’re returning for 2025, and I expect to see the Yellow Jackets in the preseason top 25 for the first time in nearly a decade. Vanderbilt had a special season but their lack of depth showed when they faded down the stretch.
Georgia Tech -2.5 -110 (2 units)
Michigan vs. Alabama (ReliaQuest Bowl: December 31st, 11 AM Central)
The last few weeks of the season were massive for Michigan- they landed Bryce Underwood and beat Ohio State. They even jumped into the top 25 of my ratings after the Ohio State win. Alabama, on the other hand, could be checked out here after failing to make the playoff. Jalen Milroe has announced he’ll play in this game, but I’d be surprised if Alabama brings out the whole playbook here.
Michigan +11.5 -110 (2 units)
Memphis vs. West Virginia (Frisco Bowl: December 17th, 8 PM Central)
I like betting against teams going through coaching changes in bowl season. West Virginia is in a total state of flux- Rich Rodridguez is coming back to Morgantown and looking to implement a very different offensive system than what Neal Brown ran. Memphis, on the other hand, should be amped up for this game- they’re capping off a great season and sending off graduating QB Seth Henigan, who holds every passing record in school history.
Memphis -1 -110 (2 units)
Western Kentucky vs. James Madison (Boca Raton Bowl: December 18th, 4:30 PM Central)
James Madison had a weird year. I saw them in person when they thrashed North Carolina back in September- they looked like the best team in the G5 in that game. They followed that up by laying an egg against ULM a few weeks later. I still think they’re incredibly talented, and they should handily beat a WKU team that has a lot of guys in the portal.
James Madison -6.5 (1 unit)
Notre Dame over 1.5 playoff wins +160 (2 units)
I’ve been high on Notre Dame for a while- loyal readers will remember I bet on the Irish to win the national title at 40/1 odds back in October. They should beat Indiana comfortably, and then have to face Georgia. Notre Dame is actually favored in that game (the lookahead line is Notre Dame -2 right now) and my model would favor them by a bit more than that if Carson Beck is hurt. I think that the Irish have a good shot at their first national title in my lifetime.
Final 2024 College Football Bracketology
We enter Selection Sunday with significant uncertainty over the last at-large spot. I’m somewhat confident that SMU will get the last spot in the Playoff over Alabama, but not certain. One interesting note- immediately after the ACC title game ended, Alabama was +650 to make the playoff and SMU was -1000 to make the playoff. Within minutes, the line had moved all the way to Alabama +260 and SMU -360. I think the new line is about fair- it implies a 75% chance of SMU in the playoff.
Without further ado, here’s my final playoff projection.
1 Oregon vs. (8 Ohio State/9 Tennessee)- Rose Bowl
2 Georgia vs. (7 Notre Dame/10 Indiana)- Sugar Bowl
3 Boise State vs. (6 Penn State/11 SMU)- Fiesta Bowl
4 Arizona State vs. (5 Texas/12 Clemson)- Peach Bowl
Oregon and Georgia are locked into the 1 and 2 seeds. Here is how I see the probability of the other seeds:
Final at-large: SMU 75%, Alabama 25%
3 Seed: Boise State 80%, Arizona State 18%, Clemson 2%
First Round Bye: Boise State 95%, Arizona State 85%, Clemson 20%
5 Seed: Texas 65%, Notre Dame 20%, Penn State 15%
6 Seed: Penn State 42%, Notre Dame 30%, Texas 28%
7 Seed: Notre Dame 50%, Penn State 35%, Ohio State 10%, Texas 5%
8 Seed: Ohio State 90%, Penn State 8%, Texas 2%
9 Seed: Tennessee 100%
10 Seed: Indiana 95%, SMU 5%
11 Seed: SMU 45%, Clemson 35%, Alabama 15%, Indiana 5%
12 Seed: Clemson 65%, SMU 25%, Alabama 10%
Enjoy the Selection Show! I’ll be back with picks for bowl games later in the week.
College Football Picks Week 15 2024
I had an excellent week 14, going 6-1 on my ATS picks, including winning all of my multi-unit bets. My biggest plays mostly won easily, Virginia Tech dominated Virginia and Georgia Tech nearly won outright as a 19.5 point underdog.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Week 12: +0.73 units
Week 13: -0.2 units
Week 14: +8.1 units
Preseason and In-Season Futures: +24.29 units
Total: +30.63 units
Tulane @ Army (Friday, 7 PM Central)
Tulane was dominating everyone in the AAC prior to last week’s slip up against Memphis. That was unfortunate- it killed my Tulane playoff ticket at +650- and it also led to Army gaining the right to host the AAC title game. I think last week was a blip and Tulane is still a very good team- their talent level is vastly superior to Army’s. Tulane also knows how to handle Army’s triple option attack- Tulane completely shut down Navy 35-0 a few weeks ago. I think the Green Wave should roll here.
Tulane -4 -108 (2 units)
College Football Bracketology- Week 14 2024
While Ohio State may have lost at home to Michigan, the team that saw their playoff odds fall the most this week was Miami. Miami entered the week in good shape, with around a 70% chance to make the playoff. Not only did the Hurricanes lose to Syracuse, but other teams around them in the rankings (Tennessee, Georgia, Notre Dame, SMU) all won. I’ll get into it in more detail below, but I think that the ‘Canes playoff hopes are now hanging on by a thread.
Normally I structure this post by going team by team and breaking down each team’s at-large chances. With ⅔ of the field already locked up, today I’ll instead talk about the biggest questions facing the committee in the next week.
Final At-Large Spot
First, let’s establish the teams that are locked into the field. I’m counting the following eight teams as locks:
That leaves 4 spots left in the field. Here’s how I see the odds for other teams to capture those 4 spots:
The winner of the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West title games will all get into the field. That leaves one spot remaining- let’s go through the contenders for that final spot in detail.
SMU- The Mustangs play Clemson for the ACC title. If they win, they’re in, very likely as the 3 seed. If they lose, they go into the at-large pool. SMU’s best result is a road win at Louisville and they also boast five other wins against bowl teams. I think that SMU is around a coin flip to get into the field with a loss.
Alabama- The Crimson Tide have a big win over Georgia, and perhaps more importantly, a win over fellow bubble team South Carolina. The case against Alabama is clear though- the committee has historically punished bad losses, and a 24-3 blowout to a 6-6 Oklahoma team, as well as the Vanderbilt loss, might both count. However, their name brand has helped them get into the playoff before and it might again.
South Carolina- The biggest argument in South Carolina’s favor is their recent form. The committee has shown some willingness to reward teams on a hot streak, and the Gamecocks finished on a 6 game win streak including wins over Clemson, Missouri and Texas A&M. Their loss to Alabama might doom them, but it was on the road and only by two points.
Miami- I think Miami is pretty toast, but the committee has liked them more than me all season. Their wins are pretty similar to SMU’s (a road win at Louisville, and a smattering of wins against other ACC bowl teams) but their losses (at Georgia Tech, at Syracuse) are worse.
Ole Miss- I think Ole Miss is nearly dead. They’d have to jump Alabama, which would make no sense given that Alabama had a more impressive win than them this weekend.
Boise State- I haven’t seen anyone else discussing this possibility, but I think it’s at least worth mentioning the possibility that the Broncos could get an at-large bid if they lose to UNLV. I certainly don’t think it will happen, but the committee has been kind to conference championship game losers in the past, and there’s a tiny chance they could stay ahead of the 3 loss SEC teams.
I think that if SMU loses, the odds of the final at-large spot are roughly:
SMU 50%
Alabama 25%
South Carolina 22%
Miami 3%
And if SMU wins, the odds of the final at-large spot are roughly:
Alabama 50%
South Carolina 35%
Miami 12%
Ole Miss 2%
Boise State 1%
Regardless, we will have a lot more clarity after the committee’s reveal this Tuesday. We’ll know for sure what happens if SMU wins and have a good guess of what will happen if they lose.
Who Gets a Home Game?
Recall that the first round (and only the first round) of the playoff is played on campus sites. That means that teams seeded 5-8 will get a home game. Notre Dame is certain to be in this group, as well as the Oregon/Penn State loser. That leaves 3 candidates left for the remaining 2 spots: Ohio State, Tennessee and the Georgia/Texas loser.
If Georgia beats Texas, Texas will clearly host. If Texas beats Georgia, I think Georgia will still get to host, but I’m not 100% certain. It thus seems like the last spot will come down to Ohio State and Tennessee.
The AP Poll has Tennessee over Ohio State but I am guessing that the committee will disagree and keep the Buckeyes higher. Ohio State’s wins (at Penn State, Indiana) are better than Tennessee’s (Alabama, Florida) and their losses are comparable. That likely sets up a Tennessee at Ohio State 8/9 game in the first round.
Who gets a Bye?
The top 2 seeds will clearly be the Big Ten and SEC champions. The last two byes are pretty fluid though, and I think there’s an interesting scenario on the table that no one is discussing.
First, let’s consider the case where SMU beats Clemson. SMU is clearly the 3 seed, and the last bye comes down to the Mountain West and Big 12. I feel pretty confident Boise State will stay ahead of the Big 12 champion if they win, but if UNLV upsets Boise State then the Big 12 champion should get the last bye.
Now, let’s suppose SMU loses. I think that the hierarchy for a bye goes: Boise State, Big 12 Champion, Clemson, UNLV. That is, if Clemson beats SMU and Boise State beats UNLV, I think that Clemson will be the 12 seed and have to go on the road in the first round of the playoff. No one seems to be talking about this, but it’s what Clemson would deserve after backing into the field.
Who Gets the 5 Seed
With the way the bracket sets up, the 5 seed is uniquely valuable this year. The 5 seed’s most likely path to the semifinals is a home game against the Big 12 champion and then a neutral site game against Boise State. On the other hand, the 6 seed’s most likely path is a home game against Alabama and then a neutral site game against SMU. I estimate that it’s about twice as easy to make the semifinals as the 5 seed than the 6 seed, so it’s a huge advantage.
The 5 seed will be the highest ranked team without a conference title. If Oregon loses to Penn State, they are the clear pick for the 5 seed. If Oregon wins, we have the following list of contenders:
11-2 Penn State
11-1 Notre Dame
11-2 Texas (if they lose to Georgia)
If Texas beats Georgia, I think that Notre Dame would get the nod. If Georgia beats Texas, it’s probably Texas.
Most Likely Playoff Bracket
Conference championship weekend normally features a few games with clear favorites (think Ohio State or Michigan against some hapless Big Ten West team) but with the death of divisions, all nine conference title games are expected to be reasonably close. That makes picking a “most likely” bracket still a bit of a guessing game at this time, but for argument’s sake I’ll suppose that all the relevant favorites (Oregon, Texas, SMU, Arizona State and Boise State) win.
1 Oregon vs. (8 Ohio State/9 Tennessee)
2 Texas vs. (7 Georgia/10 Indiana)
3 SMU vs. (6 Penn State/11 Alabama)
4 Boise State vs. (5 Notre Dame/12 Arizona State)
I think this bracket has some clear winners (Notre Dame, Alabama) and some clear losers (Tennessee, Oregon). One general rule of thumb for the bracket reveal- you probably don’t want to see Ohio State, Georgia or Alabama in your section of the draw.
College Football Picks Week 14 2024
My bet on San Jose State was a real stinker last week- SJSU QB Walker Eget was 4/22 in a loss to UNLV. You won’t see many quarterback stat lines as bad as that.
The good news is that most other things last week went my way. The biggest positive was Ole Miss losing to Florida- this cashed my Ole Miss under 9.5 wins ticket and makes my Ole Miss to miss Playoff ticket look very likely.
Loyal readers will remember that in addition to the picks below, I also have bets on Florida +11.5 and Iowa State PK that I got in the preseason. Iowa State is only a 2 point favorite, but the Florida line looks great as the Gators are two touchdown favorites at Florida State.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Week 12: +0.73 units
Week 13: -0.2 units
Preseason Bets: +21.06 units
Total: +19.3 units
Virginia @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
Virginia Tech has once again had a strange season where their record is much worse than their performance. They had a controversial loss to Miami, a confounding OT loss to Syracuse, and a turnover-laden loss to Rutgers. All of their wins have been by double digits- they’ve played more like an 8-3 team than a 5-6 team. Virginia, on the other hand, was completely uncompetitive against SMU last week. This is a huge rivalry game, and Blacksburg will be rocking for what should be a dominating Virginia Tech win.
Virginia Tech -7 -110 (3 units)
Georgia Tech @ Georgia (Friday, 6:30 PM Central)
I’ve been high on Georgia Tech all season- they’ve been in the 20s and 30s in my ratings when they’ve been in the 40s and 50s elsewhere. HC Brent Key has really raised the talent level on their roster- it’s now firmly in the top half of the ACC. Georgia has shown some vulnerability this season, and looked awful against UMass last week. I think Georgia Tech can keep this from being a blowout.
Georgia Tech +19.5 -110 (2 units)
Connecticut @ UMass (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Longtime readers of my blog will know that these two teams are both near and dear to my heart. I’ve bet on both of them many times over the years, so it would be a shame to let a UMass/UConn game go by without placing a bet. I like UMass here- I was a little surprised to see them fire HC Don Brown as he’s done a decent job at the hardest gig in FBS. The talent level between these teams is comparable and while UConn has a much better record, that’s largely due to their luck in close games.
UMass +10 -110 (2 units)
Pittsburgh @ Boston College (Saturday, 2 PM Central)
Pitt started the season 7-0 and has since lost four straight to fall to 7-4. I think they’re likely to lose another here to a strong Boston College team. People asked some questions after Boston College brought in veteran HC Bill O’Brien in the offseason, but he’s done an excellent job in year one to get the Eagles to a bowl game. Boston College is firmly a top 50 team in my model, putting them in the top half of the ACC.
Boston College -3 -110 (2 units)
Duke @ Wake Forest (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Duke is the quietest 8-3 team in the country. They’ve lost to only good teams (SMU, at Miami and at Georgia Tech) and knocked off a few bowl teams in North Carolina, Virginia Tech and NC State. It’s no surprise that a great coach like Manny Diaz could put together a winning squad, but even I didn’t expect these results in year one. On the other side, it’s a testament to how weak the ACC is that Wake Forest is 4-7. The Demon Deacons are one of the worst teams in the Power Four and should be a bigger home underdog here.
Duke -4.5 -110 (1 unit)
Auburn @ Alabama (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Auburn has been hanging out in my model’s top 25 all season despite having a losing record. They’ve managed to find every possible way to lose a football game, most notably Payton Thorne’s backbreaking pick six against Oklahoma. The Tigers are clearly better than their record and have a top ten roster in the sport, as we saw last weekend against Texas A&M. Alabama has question marks on both sides of the ball and I don’t think they’ll run away with the Iron Bowl.
Auburn +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
New Mexico @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 10 PM Central)
Hawai’i has been great to me all season and I’m going to keep picking them here. HC Timmy Chang inherited the worst situation in FBS when he took over, and has turned the team from a doormat to a respectable Mountain West squad. Mainland teams often struggle travelling out to the islands, and New Mexico probably has a less talented roster than Hawai’i.
Hawai’i +2.5 -110 (1 unit)
UNLV to miss Playoff -300 (6 units)
UNLV needs to win the Mountain West to make the Playoff, and also needs to stay in front of the winner of the American. To win the conference, UNLV must beat Nevada this week, and then win a conference title game at Boise State where they’re likely going to be a double digit underdog. There are also a few scenarios on the board where the AAC champion remains in front of UNLV, taking their spot in the playoff. I liked this bet a lot more before Tulane lost to Memphis, but I still think UNLV has a long hill to climb to make the Playoff.
Miami to make Playoff -200 (3 units)
Miami was the biggest beneficiary of last week’s chaos in the SEC. The Hurricanes have one easy path to the playoff- if they beat Syracuse, they’re in the ACC title game, and if they win that, they’ll be the 3 seed. More importantly, I think they stand a good chance of making the playoff with a loss- especially if it’s in the ACC title game. I give the Hurricanes around a three in four chance at making the field.
Clemson to make Playoff +200 (3 units)
I was a Clemson hater for much of the season, but I have to admit that their chances of making the field are looking up. They’ve risen all the way to 12th in the committee’s rankings, and if they beat South Carolina, I think they’re more likely than not to make the field. I think that this is a reasonable price to buy back my short exposure to Clemson.
Alabama to win National Championship 40/1 (0.5 units)
Ole Miss to win National Championship 150/1 (0.5 units)
In 2017, Alabama lost the Iron Bowl to Auburn, and their season looked to be over. The Crimson Tide were 12/1 to win the National Championship, despite every computer ranking still thinking they were the best team in the country. You know how the story went from there- Wisconsin beat Ohio State to vault Alabama into the four team playoff, and Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa knocked off Georgia in the title game.
I think a similar sentiment applies here. Alabama and Ole Miss are both unlikely to make the playoff, but if they do, they’re going to be one of the favorites to win it all. Both teams are hanging around the top 5 in most computer metrics and are among the most talented teams in the country. The history of college basketball is filled with talented teams that have poor regular seasons and then go on a tournament run, and the 12 team playoff means that teams like Alabama and Ole Miss can do the same.
Baylor to win Big 12 90/1 (0.1 units)
Baylor fans were ready to run HC Dave Aranda out of town before the season. However, the Bears have been on an immense hot streak since elevating Sawyer Robertson to the starting QB role. In the event that the Big 12 comes down to a monstrous tiebreaker of teams with 6-3 conference records, Baylor is very likely to end up in the conference title game thanks to their superior conference strength of schedule. I think this is a fun longshot bet.
College Football Bracketology- Week 13 2024
Week 13 brought chaos to the playoff picture with Indiana, Ole Miss, Alabama and Texas A&M all losing. The biggest beneficiaries of this were the ACC teams- Miami, SMU and Clemson all won and saw their playoff odds take big leaps forward.
With only two weeks left before Selection Sunday, it’s a bit easier to get into all of the various scenarios. In the sections below, I’ve tried analyzing a few possible scenarios (e.g. Miami loses the ACC title game) and given my thoughts on the probability that various teams could get into the playoff in those scenarios.
Tier 1: Locks and Near Locks
There are four locks in this tier- Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas. I don’t see any of these teams getting left out even if they lose every remaining game.
In my mind, Georgia just needs one more win (either Georgia Tech or the SEC title game) to get in. Notre Dame is in (and likely hosting a first round game) with a win over USC, and I think they have about a 75% chance of getting in even with a loss.
Indiana is the most controversial inclusion in this list. However, after looking through some scenarios, I am quite confident in their chances to make the field if they beat Purdue. They’d need two of the following things to happen to miss the field:
Texas A&M winning the SEC
Clemson beating South Carolina and jumping them
The loser of the ACC title game staying above them
This would have to be on top of all the other favorites (Tennessee, Notre Dame, Miami, SMU) winning. All in all, there’s about a one in eight chance that this happens.
Tier 2: Probably In
Tennessee has the simplest playoff scenario of any team. If they beat Vanderbilt, they’re a lock, and likely hosting a first round game at Neyland Stadium. If they lose, they’re pretty much out of the discussion.
Miami and SMU both control their own destiny. They’ll likely face off in the ACC title game- I think that an 11-2 loser of the ACC title game would stand a decent chance to get into the field. I give Miami a 70% chance at the playoff if they beat Syracuse but lose to SMU, and give SMU a 55% chance at the playoff if they beat Cal but lose to Miami.
Tier 3: Contenders
Clemson has been flying up this list in recent weeks, both because of chaos in the SEC and also because the committee has consistently ranked them higher than I expected. Clemson needs a Miami loss to make the ACC title game, but even without that I think they stand around a 60% chance at an at-large bid if they can beat South Carolina.
Speaking of the Gamecocks, they have appeared in the longshots section for a few weeks now but this is their first time listed as a contender. If they beat Clemson this weekend, I think that the last playoff spot will likely come down to them, the ACC title game loser and Alabama.
Two weeks ago, I gave Arizona State a 3% chance at making the playoff. After two ranked wins against Kansas State and BYU, as well as helpful results elsewhere, they nearly control their own destiny for the Big 12 title.
Tier 4: Longshots
Texas A&M has a difficult, but simple path to the playoff- they need to beat both Georgia and Texas. Ole Miss needs to win the Egg Bowl and then get a tremendous amount of help elsewhere. Colorado and Baylor both have outside shots at the Big 12 but need lots of teams above them to lose.
Group of Five
I am still holding out hope for two Group of Five teams in the playoff. If we assume for a second that Boise State wins the Mountain West, I think that a 10-2 Tulane would make the playoff over a 9-3 or 8-4 Big 12 champion. There is about a 1 in 6 chance that the Big 12 produces a champion with at least 3 losses, so I think there’s a reasonable chance that we get two G5 teams in the field.
College Football Bracketology- Week 12 2024
Week 12 teased some chaos but never delivered it. We did see some playoff contenders lose, but outside of Tennessee (who lost to fellow contender Georgia), it was all teams on the edge of playoff contention who fell. We wish farewell to LSU, Kansas State, Missouri, Washington State and West Virginia who are out of contention after losses this weekend.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
The biggest change in this tier from last week is the addition of Georgia. After beating Tennessee, Georgia is a stone cold lock to make the playoff with two more wins, and hosts UMass and Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech is squirrelly, but Georgia should still be a 17 point favorite or so in that game.
Ohio State, Texas and Penn State all saw their odds tick up a bit with routine wins this week. I’m also a bit more bullish about Indiana’s playoff chances than the betting market- I think an 11-1 Indiana is still very likely to make the field.
Tier 2: Probably In
All of these teams control their own destiny, but have at least one decent hurdle left to clear. Notre Dame is a 16 point favorite against Army this week but will likely only be a 6 point favorite or so at USC on Thanksgiving weekend. I have no clue what happens to a 10-2 Notre Dame team that loses to USC- I think it’s a coin flip whether they get into the field in that scenario.
Ole Miss travels to Florida this week as a 10 point favorite, and then hosts an awful Mississippi State team to close out the year. A 2-0 finish should lock up a bid.
Alabama is in an interesting scenario- they have two moderate tests (at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn) left. If they win both of those, they’re very likely to be in the SEC title game. If they lose the SEC title game to say, Texas, it’ll be interesting to see how the committee ranks a 10-3 Alabama team relative to say, 10-2 Tennessee. Based on historical precedent, my hunch is that they wouldn’t fall very far for losing the SEC title game.
Tier 3: Coin Flips
Tennessee falls into this tier after their loss to Georgia. If we end up in the scenario with a logjam of 10-2 teams that I outlined last week, I think that Tennessee would be the odd team out. However, that scenario is still unlikely as there are plenty of possible upsets over the next two weeks. The Volunteers do still need to take care of business, most notably in their Rivalry Week game at Vanderbilt.
You might notice that Colorado’s odds to make the playoff are actually slightly lower than their odds to win the Big 12. I’m pricing in some small possibility (perhaps 1 in 10) that the Big 12 champion gets left out of the playoff. Suppose, for example that Colorado loses to Kansas this week, but still makes the Big 12 championship game and wins it (this scenario is not that unlikely- all it would require is 1 loss each from Iowa State and Arizona State).
In this scenario, we could be looking at 2 playoff spots for 10-3 Colorado, 12-1 Boise State and 12-1 Army. Recall that the top 5 conference champions get autobids to the playoff- there is no guarantee that all the P4 conferences get a team in if their champion is not one of the 5 highest ranked conference champions. I’m not certain that a 3 loss Big 12 champion makes the field in that scenario.
Tier 4: Longshots
The clear winner here this week was Arizona State, while the clear loser was BYU. Arizona State’s win and BYU’s loss combined to vault Arizona State from a 3% chance to win the Big 12 to a 22% chance. The two teams face off this weekend and the winner will just need one more win to make the conference title game.
Clemson’s playoff odds ticked up a bit after their win at Pittsburgh. I think there’s an outside shot Clemson gets an at-large bid if they knock off South Carolina and finish 10-2, but they’d need chaos elsewhere. Speaking of South Carolina, I added the Gamecocks to the longshots list this week- if chaos erupts in the next two weeks, a 9-3 South Carolina team with wins over Texas A&M, Clemson and Missouri could merit playoff consideration.
Group of Five
You’ll notice that for the first time, these numbers sum to greater than 100%. That’s due to the aforementioned scenario where two G5 teams get in in lieu of the Big 12 champion. Tulane is the biggest riser in this section- they are up to the top 20 in my ratings after demolishing Navy and secured their spot in the AAC title game. Tulane will be at least a touchdown favorite at home against Army and is likely one Boise State slip up away from the playoff.
College Football Picks Week 13 2024
I went 2-2 in my picks last week, but more importantly I cashed a few big tickets from the preseason. Florida over 4.5 wins and Arkansas State over 5.5 wins were two of my biggest bets of the preseason and both cashed this week. I’ve been fortunate with Arkansas State- they’ve been quite bad this season and are very lucky to have six wins. Florida, on the other hand, has improved drastically over the course of the season and should make a bowl game.
In addition to the picks below, loyal readers will remember that I bet Iowa State +9 against Utah in my preseason bets. That bet looks quite nice, as the line is now Iowa State -6.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Week 12: +0.73 units
Preseason Bets: +14.63 units
Total: +13.07 units
UNLV @ San Jose State (Friday, 9 PM Central)
By this point in the season, I normally have a good handle on every team and I’m very rarely surprised by a line. This is a rare exception- these are two good teams, and I was quite surprised to see San Jose State getting a touchdown at home. San Jose State has been a revelation under new HC Ken Niumatalolo and is the clear third best team in the Mountain West. UNLV is a good team as well but this line implies a bigger gap between these teams than is justified.
San Jose State +7.5 -100 (2 units)
San Jose State ML +230 (1 unit)
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan (Tuesday, 6:30 PM Central)
Non-Michiganders likely do not appreciate how big of a rivalry this is. Western and Central are very similar sorts of schools and are competing against each other for recruits- there is a lot of bad blood between these schools. WMU got off to a hot start, but it was a bit fraudulent. CMU is a bad team, but they’re better than their record indicates thanks to some bad close game luck. You can toss out the records whenever these two old foes meet, and I think Western is a bit overrated so I like Central to cover.
Central Michigan +8 -110 (1 unit)
Baylor @ Houston (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Baylor HC Dave Aranda was thought to be a dead man walking earlier in the season, but after four straight wins it looks he has saved his job. Baylor’s offense has caught fire since switching to new QB Sawyer Robertson and they would control their own destiny for a playoff spot if they hadn’t allowed a shambolic Hail Mary against Colorado in September. Houston has been up and down all season but Baylor is just a plain old good team now.
Baylor -7.5 +100 (1 unit)
San Diego State @ Utah State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Utah State has had a lost season after HC Blake Anderson was let go in the offseason. However, San Diego State has been even worse than Utah State. The fast-paced Aztecs offense has been a disaster this season, as a bad fast-paced offense is a great recipe for a tired defense. I like Utah State to win this battle of two bad teams.
Utah State -4.5 -112 (1 unit)
Tulane to make Playoff +650 (2 units)
Tulane went on the road and destroyed Navy 35-0 this week. The Green Wave have rocketed into the top 20 of my ratings after winning their last three games by a combined score of 121-9. They’ve now clinched a berth in the AAC title game, where they’ll play Army.
They have two ways to make the playoff. They can either win the AAC and have Boise State slip up in the Mountain West title game, or they can win the AAC and hope for supreme chaos in the Big 12, where they could jump a 3 loss Big 12 champion for the last autobid. The first one is most likely- they’ll be serious favorites over Army and Boise State is looking mortal recently.
Toledo to win MAC +450 (1 unit)
This is another case of using the conference tiebreakers to my advantage. Even though Toledo has 2 losses in MAC play and there are three teams ahead of them with 1 loss (Bowling Green, Miami (OH) and Ohio), they nearly control their own destiny for the conference title. Miami (OH) and Bowling Green still have to play and Toledo plays Ohio this week. This means that if Toledo wins out, there will be at most a single 1 loss team in the conference. In a big tiebreaker jumble for 2 loss conference teams, Toledo is very likely to come out ahead due to having the superior conference strength of schedule.
College Football Bracketology- Week 11 2024
We’re going to begin this week’s bracketology with a very big picture view of the playoff field. After recent upsets in the ACC and Big 12 (Miami, Iowa State, Kansas State and Clemson all losing in the past two weeks), it looks increasingly likely that both leagues will have only one playoff bid. After we take out the Group of Five’s playoff spot, that likely leaves nine spots for the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame. This scenario is not a certainty- for example, a 12-1 BYU team that loses the Big 12 title game would almost certainly get an at-large- but it is the most likely outcome.
Right now, there are 4 Big Ten teams and 7 SEC teams with 2 or fewer losses, not to mention Notre Dame. If every remaining game this season is won by the favorite, this would knock out Missouri (who is a 13 point underdog at South Carolina this week) and Texas A&M (who will be a decent underdog against Texas). This would still leave 10 teams for 9 spots- and if the favorites prevail everywhere, that means a 10-2 Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss or Alabama team is left on the chopping block.
It’s unlikely that this exact scenario materializes, as there will probably be an upset somewhere- suppose Ole Miss loses at Florida, or Tennessee loses at Vanderbilt, or Notre Dame loses to USC, or something like that. However, it does lead us to two general rules for playoff selection this year:
Any Big Ten or SEC team with 2 or fewer losses should be in the field, unless we get a completely chalk finish to the season. Indiana is probably the one exception to this rule. This rule may or may not apply to Notre Dame- I’m incredibly unsure as to what will happen with a 10-2 Notre Dame.
Any ACC or Big 12 team with 0 or 1 losses will be in the field. The only possible team that could fit this criteria and not also be a conference champion is a 12-1 BYU that loses the Big 12 title game.
Most likely, after we fill out teams that fit in category (1) and (2), the field will be full. It’s possible we’ll have a spot or two left, at which point teams like 11-2 Miami, 10-2 Kansas State, 10-2 Clemson or 9-3 Georgia would enter consideration, just to name a few.
Now that we’ve set the table for the playoff picture, it’s time for some team by team analysis.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
Georgia and Miami fall out of the top tier this week, and are replaced by Penn State and Indiana. The Big Ten conference office must be salivating at the way the schedule worked this year- assuming chalk holds the rest of the way, the Big Ten will finish the regular season with Oregon at 12-0 and Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana at 11-1. They’d be nearly a lock to get 4 bids in the playoff, and there would be no controversy about the conference title game as Ohio State would have wins over both Penn State and Indiana.
Tier 2: Probably In
There are 5 teams in this tier and 5 teams in the top tier. As I outlined at the top of the post, it is impossible for all 10 of these teams to make the playoff- meaning that at least one team is set up for a disappointing finish to the season.
Ole Miss, Notre Dame and Alabama have relatively simple paths. I really struggle to see any of those three teams missing the field if they win out, and they all have relatively light schedules. The only games where I could see any of those teams as less than double digit favorites are Ole Miss @ Florida and Notre Dame @ USC.
The winner of this week’s Georgia/Tennessee game is going to be in excellent shape and will likely move to tier 1 next week. The loser is in some trouble. For Georgia, it would be their third loss- if any team is going to make the field with 3 losses, it would be a Georgia squad who owns a road win at Texas. For Tennessee, it would be their second loss, and they have the least impressive resume of any potential 2 loss SEC team- the win over Alabama is their only win over a likely bowl team. Tennessee also still has a tough trip to Vanderbilt where they’ll only be a touchdown favorite or so.
Tier 3: Coin Flips
Interestingly, this tier contains two Big 12 teams and two ACC teams. We’re reasonably likely to see Miami play SMU for the ACC title and BYU play Colorado for the Big 12 title. The most likely scenario is that the winner of each game will be in the field and the loser will be out. If any team from this group is going to get an at-large bid, I’m most bullish on BYU’s chances. The Cougars have the best wins of the group (SMU, Kansas State) and should get into the field as a 12-1 conference title game loser.
I also would not rule out the possibility that either the ACC or the Big 12 fails to get a team in the playoff. For example, suppose that Colorado loses to Kansas but goes on to win the Big 12 at 10-3, and both Boise State and Army win out. I’m nearly certain that a 12-1 Boise State and 13-0 Army team would get into the playoff over a 10-3 Colorado.
Tier 4: Longshots
Washington State is getting a bit more respect from the playoff committee than I would’ve guessed- they are all the way up to 18th in the most recent rankings. I don’t think their playoff hopes are completely dead- if chaos strikes the SEC in the next few weeks, they only have to climb six or seven more spots in the rankings to get an at-large bid.
Everyone else in this section is still here on a technicality. LSU still has an outside shot at the SEC title, Missouri sucks but technically still has only 2 losses, and the Big 12 teams on the list all have outside paths to the conference championship.
Group of Five
Boise State’s playoff odds have steadily ticked up for many weeks in a row. I think that the Broncos control their own destiny for the playoff- even in the unlikely event that Army remains undefeated (Army is a 15.5 point underdog against Notre Dame), I think that a 12-1 Boise State team still gets into the field as an at-large.
Tulane travels to Navy this week. If Tulane wins, it guarantees a Tulane/Army AAC title game. If Navy wins, it keeps some wildcard scenarios open for the G5 berth. The craziest possible scenario I can imagine involves Navy winning the AAC (+800 or so), Colorado State winning the Mountain West (+650 or so) and Louisiana failing to win the Sun Belt (-130 or so).
College Football Picks Week 12 2024
I went 3-1 in my picks last week, Minnesota looked awful against Rutgers but my other three bets covered rather easily. I had yet another underdog I picked win straight up last week as Georgia Tech beat Miami as a 13.5 point dog.
I cashed some winners in my preseason futures this week as well- I was getting worried about Virginia over 4.5 wins but they upset Pitt for their fifth win. Fresno State’s disaster season continued with a loss to 2-7 Air Force, so I cashed my Fresno State under 8 wins ticket.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Week 11: +2.55 units
Preseason Bets: +9.17 units
Total: +6.88 units
Texas @ Arkansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
About a month ago, I bet 4 units on Arkansas as a 14 point underdog at home against Tennessee. This game feels similar to me- Arkansas is an inconsistent team, but their ceiling is quite high and on their day they can play with anyone. Texas, meanwhile, looks shakier the longer you look at them- they only have one win over a team with a winning record. My model thinks Texas is more like a top 7 team than a top 3 team, so they could be in some trouble on the road against the plucky Razorbacks.
Arkansas +17 -110 (2 units)
Ball State @ Buffalo (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
First year Buffalo coach Pete Lembo was the head coach at Ball State many moons ago, and now faces his former team. Ball State has shown some signs of life this year, knocking off Northern Illinois and playing Vanderbilt close in recent weeks. Buffalo is a bottom half MAC team and should not be nearly a touchdown favorite at home.
Ball State +5 -110 (1 unit)
Syracuse @ California (Saturday, 2 PM Central)
Cal is a few plays away from a very special season. All of their losses are by five points or less and all of their wins are by double digits. The Golden Bears are an above average ACC team, and the same cannot be said of Syracuse. Syracuse has been the beneficiary of insane close game luck and is clearly the worse team despite their better record. As an added bonus, I plan to be in attendance at this game rooting for Cal.
California -7 -110 (1 unit)
Wake Forest @ North Carolina (Saturday, 7 PM Central)
It is a testament to how weak the ACC is that Wake Forest is sniffing a bowl. The Demon Deacons are in the 80s in my power ratings and might have the worst roster in the power conferences. North Carolina has pulled themselves out of their mid-season tailspin and has better players at nearly every position.
North Carolina -10 -110 (1 unit)
Alabama to win SEC +650 (2 units)
LSU to win SEC +3500 (0.5 units)
I spent a long time digging through the SEC’s tiebreaker procedures today, and I really like both of these bets. To explain why, let me briefly explain how the SEC’s tiebreakers work. Right now, there are three teams with 1 loss in SEC play (Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee) and then several teams with 2 losses (Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Missouri).
Texas plays Texas A&M in a few weeks, so it’s possible that Tennessee wins out and then plays the Texas/Texas A&M winner in the SEC title game. However, Tennessee is quite unlikely to win out as they have to travel to both Georgia and Vanderbilt (the Vols are a 10 point underdog to Georgia this week).
If Tennessee (or the Texas/Texas A&M winner) trip up, then 2 loss teams come into play. This is what will probably happen- we’ll get a ginormous group of 2 loss teams and have to pick one (or maybe two) title game participants out of the group. In a huge group tiebreaker, conference strength of schedule will rule the day.
Alabama has played the toughest SEC schedule of all the contenders and is thus likely to come out on top in the tiebreaker. The other team that’s played a similarly tough schedule is LSU. In a massive tiebreaker jumble, it’s very likely one of these teams will come out on top.
One added note- because conference SOS is likely to be the deciding factor, games you might think are irrelevant could determine the conference race. For example, LSU has played Arkansas and Alabama has played Missouri, and the winner of the November 30th Arkansas/Missouri game could determine who makes the SEC title game.
SMU to win ACC +190 (2 units)
Once again, the tiebreaker math is in our favor with this bet. SMU is overwhelmingly likely to make the ACC title game, as they’d have to go 1-2 or worse down the stretch to miss the title game. My model would make SMU a very small underdog (2 points or so) against Clemson or Miami, so I think there’s some decent value here.
Clemson to miss Playoff -270 (4 units)
I will admit that this line is no longer available- I pounced on -270 when I saw it today, and it has moved to -350 in the few hours it took me to write this post. Clemson has two routes to the playoff- they can either win the ACC or get an at-large bid. To win the ACC, they’d have to (i) beat Pitt, (ii) hope Miami loses to an awful Wake Forest team or a mediocre Syracuse team and then (iii) beat SMU in the ACC title game. That is a pretty unlikely series of events. Their at-large odds are looking pretty slim: the giant group of 2 loss SEC teams will all be ahead of Clemson, and Clemson still has a very tricky game against South Carolina to tangle with.
Colorado to miss Playoff -130 (3 units)
I love this Colorado team as much as anyone else, but this line is a bit ridiculous. Colorado needs to win the Big 12 to make the playoff- if they lose again, they’ll have 3 losses and there’s simply no chance a 3 loss Big 12 team makes the playoff. Colorado has two games left that will be relative tossups- a trip to Kansas and the potential Big 12 title game. They also need to navigate a home game against rival Utah. They’re going to be favored in every remaining game, but only very slight favorites in two of them, and this line is just not quite right.
College Football Bracketology- Week 10 2024
After a few weeks of chalk, week 9 gave us some decent upsets that shook up the playoff race a little. Texas A&M, Clemson, Iowa State and Kansas State were teams 9, 12, 14 and 15 in my playoff odds a week ago, and all of them lost this week. That opened up the door quite a bit for teams like BYU, SMU and Indiana who saw their odds rise significantly.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
It’s no surprise that these were the top five teams in the committee’s first in-season rankings. Any team in this group (except Oregon, who is a stone cold lock) would be able to handle one more loss with no trouble but would be in some serious danger with two more losses. If I had to pick one team in this tier to be worried about, it might be Georgia, who has to navigate games against Ole Miss and Tennessee in back to back weeks.
Tier 2: Probably In
Penn State drops from the top tier to the second tier after their loss to Ohio State. Their trickiest remaining game is a trip to Minnesota- I reckon they’ll be around 8 point favorites there- but overall their schedule is manageable. I think a 10-2 Penn State would get in, but I’m not totally certain.
Notre Dame was hurt by the committee’s first rankings, I expected them to be around 8th and they came in at 10th. They’ll be fine if they win out, but I think a 10-2 Notre Dame is a coin toss to get in.
Alabama’s season will come down to this weekend’s game against LSU. Their last few games are quite easy, so if they win this one they’ll likely finish 10-2 and easily make it into the field. If they lose, they’ll be praying for chaos elsewhere- I don’t think we’ll see any 3 loss teams in the playoff this year.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
BYU and Colorado were both huge winners this week despite being on bye, as fellow Big 12 contenders Iowa State and Kansas State lost. Both teams face tricky road tests this week- BYU is a 4 point favorite at Utah and Colorado is a 3 point favorite at Texas Tech.
Much like Alabama, Ole Miss’ season likely comes down to this weekend’s game. If they beat Georgia, they’ll be very likely to go 10-2 and should get into the field. If they lose, they pick up a third loss and are pretty much sunk. Elsewhere in the SEC, LSU also must win this week to stay in contention.
SMU was the biggest winner of week 9. Not only did they beat Pitt in convincing fashion, but Clemson also lost to Louisville. SMU holds the tiebreaker over Clemson, so they’d have to go 1-2 in their remaining regular season games to miss the ACC title game. It seems safe to say SMU will be playing for a spot in the playoff on conference championship weekend.
Tier 4: Longshots
Clemson falls into the longshot tier after their blowout loss to Louisville. The Tigers do not hold the tiebreaker over Miami or SMU and thus need a ton of help to make the ACC title game. Even if they win out, I am not optimistic on the playoff odds of a 10-2 Clemson team that doesn’t yet have a good win on their schedule.
Last week’s Big 12 chaos means that there are several teams on the fringe of the conference race who I added here. Texas Tech has the cleanest path to the playoff of any team outside the initial committee top 25- if they win out and both Kansas State and Iowa State lose once, they’re in the conference title game.
Group of Five
This remains Boise State’s race to lose. The Broncos were a bit higher than I expected in the initial committee rankings- they clocked in at 12th when I expected to see them around 15th. A 12-1 Boise State team should thus avoid the 12 seed, and if some upsets happen in the ACC or Big 12, might even be able to get the 4 seed and a bye to the second round of the playoff.
If Army and Boise State both win out, I suspect we will see them both in the playoff. However, that would require Army to upset Notre Dame as a 14 point underdog, so we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
College Football Picks Week 11 2024
Last week was a mess, led by Virginia Tech. The Hokies surprisingly were without QB Kyron Drones and star RB Bhayshul Tuten due to injury. They still jumped out to a 21-3 lead only to completely disintegrate late against Syracuse.
The overall story of the season is a bit better than the numbers you see below- I have a lot of futures bets (Indiana to make Playoff, BYU to make playoff, SMU to make ACC title game etc.) that are looking quite good. I haven’t included them in the “preseason bets” tally because they’re not settled yet, but I reckon I have about an extra 20-25 units in expected profit in these sorts of bets.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Week 10: -7.27 units
Preseason Bets: +4.57 units
Total: -0.27 units
UNLV @ Hawai’i (Saturday, 8 PM Central)
Hawai’i is a vastly improved team this year. HC Timmy Chang took over a complete dumpster fire from previous HC Todd Graham and it has taken him some time to right the ship. However, he finally has a roster full of his recruits now and it is paying dividends in back to back upset wins over Nevada and Fresno State. UNLV is a solid top 50 team but travel to the islands is always tough for mainland teams and the market has not caught up to how improved Hawai’i is.
Hawai’i +13 -110 (2 units)
Minnesota @ Rutgers (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Rutgers had a solid season going in September but the bottom has completely fallen out for them. They lost at home to a bad UCLA team and were shellacked by Wisconsin and USC. Minnesota might just be the best team in college football that no one is talking about- they’re up to 33rd in my ratings- and has been hugely improved on offense in the last few weeks.
Minnesota -4.5 -110 (2 units)
Miami @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Miami has survived their fair share of close calls this year, to say the least. Their offense is the best in the sport but their defense is now outside my top 40- no serious national title contender should be getting torn up by the Duke offense. Georgia Tech fell off the national radar after they lost to Syracuse, but their schedule has been brutal and I think they are unlucky to only be 5-4. Georgia Tech is optimistic that QB Haynes King will return from injury in time for this game and I think the Yellow Jackets have a chance at the upset.
Georgia Tech +13 -110 (2 units)
Rice @ Memphis (Friday, 8 PM Central)
Rice fired HC Mike Bloomgren before last week’s game and immediately put up their best performance of the season in a dominating win over Navy. I’ve heard rumblings that Bloomgren had lost the locker room so I’m not shocked to see a sudden improvement. Memphis is falling apart a bit- they’ve underperformed by double digits in each of their last three games- and I think they’re a bit overrated.
Rice +12.5 -110 (1 unit)
Indiana to make the Playoff -150 (2 units)
Indiana has three games left on their schedule- home games against Michigan and Purdue and a road game at Ohio State. The Hoosiers are 13.5 point favorites against Michigan this weekend, and Purdue might be the worst power conference team in the country. Even if Indiana gets killed by Ohio State (which is probable- my model has Ohio State as the best team in the country by a decent margin), I still think an 11-1 Indiana is a reasonably safe bet to make the playoff.
College Football Bracketology- Week 9 2024
After a chaotic start to October, chalk has ruled the day in the last two weeks. LSU was the only playoff contender to lose last weekend, and they lost to fellow playoff contender Texas A&M.
As a result, the bar to make the playoff keeps going up. Earlier in the month, it looked like a guarantee that any 10-2 power conference team would make it, and I was even talking about 9-3 SEC teams sneaking into the field.
I now project there to be 14.3 power conference teams with 2 or fewer losses. Since there’s 11 bids for power conference teams, this means that there will be a few 10-2 teams that miss the field. This is bad news for teams that could have weaker 2 loss resumes (Indiana, SMU, Kansas State, Clemson) as well as longshot hopefuls like Washington State.
Tier 1: Definitely In
The one change from last week is that I’ve added Miami to this tier. The Hurricanes demolished Florida State over the weekend and will be double digit favorites in every remaining game. A 12-0 Miami team will make the playoff even with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game- but an 11-1 Miami team that loses the ACC title game would be in a lot of danger. However, as Miami continues to clear obstacles one at a time, it looks unlikely they’ll have to worry about that scenario.
For everyone else in this tier, the path to an at-large bid remains simple. 10-2 will almost certainly get the job done, 9-3 almost certainly won’t. There are some rare exceptions (I could see a path for 9-3 Georgia to get in, and I could see a path for 10-2 Penn State to not get in) but it should generally hold true.
Tier 2: Probably In
Texas A&M and Indiana are the week’s biggest winners in this group- both saw their playoff odds rise by about 10% after solid wins. I was a little surprised to not see Texas A&M’s odds a bit higher. However, they have deceptively tricky road trips against South Carolina and Auburn, as well as a rivalry showdown against Texas. I give them only a 60% shot of making through that stretch 2-1 or better.
Alabama is the only team in this tier with multiple losses. I feel increasingly certain that a 9-3 Alabama team is not going to make the field, so their season will likely come down to a road trip to Baton Rouge.
Tier 3: Other Contenders
I think most people will be surprised to see Clemson in this tier. I certainly disagree with the consensus on this one- I bet Clemson to miss the playoff at +155 this week- but I think the math is solid. Suppose Clemson wins the rest of their regular season games and then loses to Miami in the ACC title game- they’d be 11-2 with only 1 or 2 ranked wins. They’d certainly be behind teams like 10-2 Alabama, 10-2 Texas A&M and 10-2 Penn State. Of course, they might just win the ACC and make this a moot point, but I think their at-large odds are growing slim.
This tier includes a trio of Big 12 teams in BYU, Iowa State and Kansas State. I think the best chance to get multiple Big 12 teams into the field is for either BYU or Iowa State to make it to the Big 12 title game undefeated and then lose. I’m hard pressed to imagine a 1 loss Big 12 team missing the field- especially BYU who has an excellent non-conference win at SMU- but the path for a 2 loss Big 12 team to get in is quickly narrowing.
Tier 4: Longshots
This tier is shrinking rapidly. The main reason why is that the Big 12 race has narrowed considerably- earlier in October I still had 8 Big 12 teams on my radar screen, now I only have 5 (and TCU’s path is quite narrow).
In the ACC, Pitt took a nice step forward with their win over Syracuse last week. I still have the Panthers as projected underdogs in three more games, starting with this weekend’s trip to SMU. If they win that game, they’ll move up a tier.
Perhaps I could have included Virginia Tech in this tier- if they win out (they still have to play Clemson, among others), they’re a coin flip to be in the ACC title game.
Group of Five
The big news in the G5 this week was Boise State’s win over UNLV. Boise State is a stone cold lock for the Mountain West title game, and if they win it, they’re in the playoff (so long as Army loses once, which is very likely).
Speaking of Army, I recently added a bet on them to make the playoff at 15/1 odds. If Boise State slips up in the Mountain West title game (which is quite possible- they’ll likely have to travel to UNLV again), the American champion will be next in line for the G5 playoff berth. Army is already 6-0 in American play and is the favorite to win the American at +130.
College Football Picks Week 10 2024
Last week was pretty much a wash for me. I was celebrating when UTSA was up 35-7 on Tulsa at halftime, only for the Roadrunners to execute the collapse of the century to lose 46-45. Outside of that game, Vanderbilt, Bowling Green and Troy all covered, and none of them were ever really in doubt.
Week 1: -0.36 units
Week 2: -0.33 units
Week 3: -5.18 units
Week 4: -4.27 units
Week 5: +5.28 units
Week 6: +8.10 units
Week 7: -3.00 units
Week 8: +1.55 units
Week 9: +0.64 units
Preseason Bets: +4.57 units
Total: +7.00 units
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
Syracuse has been worse than their record all season, and the rent finally came due last week in a blowout loss to Pitt. It wasn’t just Kyle McCord’s five interceptions- Syracuse is still one of the least talented rosters in the P4. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, was a preseason sleeper pick for a reason- the bones of an ACC contender are there. Their season went sideways with some early losses in September but they’ve been excellent in recent weeks and they should roll here.
Virginia Tech -2.5 -110 (4 units)
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
I am 3-0 picking against Appalachian State this season and am going to do so again here. App State is a proud program with a decades long winning tradition, but their roster has fallen into disarray. Old Dominion now looks like the team to beat in the Sun Belt East- they demolished Georgia Southern last week and are headed for the best year in their program history.
Old Dominion +1.5 -110 (3 units)
New Mexico State @ FIU (Tuesday, 6 PM Central)
Conference USA has one group of decent teams and one group of bad teams. These are two of the latter- FIU has already lost to FCS Monmouth this year and New Mexico State is a bottom 10 team in FBS. I don’t think there’s a ton of daylight between these two teams as FIU has already lost to some of the dregs of the league, such as UTEP. New Mexico State should be able to keep this close.
New Mexico State +10 -110 (2 units)
Arizona State @ Oklahoma State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
I’ve been a seller of Oklahoma State all season. I wish I had bet against them more- they’ve gone from the top 15 of the AP Poll to 0-5 in Big 12 play in the span of a month. Arizona State has been one of the surprises of the season- they were the consensus pick for last in the Big 12 but are already 2-2 in the league. Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt is doubtful for this game- if he does play, expect this line to move further towards ASU.
Arizona State +1.5 -110 (2 units)
Hawaii @ Fresno State (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Hawaii had the worst roster in the sport when Todd Graham left the program in a smoldering crater. They dominated Nevada in a 34-13 win last week and are comfortably out of the bottom 10 in my ratings for the first time in years. Fresno State has been overrated all year as QB Mikey Keene has regressed significantly.
Hawaii +13 -110 (1 unit)
Ole Miss @ Arkansas (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’ve been betting against Ole Miss all year, and I regret not picking Oklahoma +20.5 last week. This is a really tricky test for them- Arkansas has likely saved HC Sam Pittman’s job with an impressive 5-3 season. They’re a solid mid-tier SEC team and should not be nearly double digit home underdogs against an underwhelming Ole Miss squad.
Arkansas +8 -110 (1 unit)
Clemson to miss the Playoff +155 (2 units)
As I described in last week’s bracketology, the Playoff bubble is looking much stronger than expected. That’s bad news for Clemson- the Tigers will obviously make the playoff if they win the ACC, but I am growing increasingly skeptical of their at-large chances. They’re yet to beat a single team with a winning record and they’d be at the back of the line among 2 loss teams given their weak schedule. I think Clemson is around a coin flip to make the playoff so this presents some good value.
Army to make the Playoff +1500 (1 unit)
Army is currently undefeated and they essentially have two paths to make the playoff. The first path is to win out- this would require beating Notre Dame (they’ll be about 14 point underdogs) as well as winning every other game, including the AAC title game. Overall, I think this has about a 5% chance of happening.
The second path is to lose to Notre Dame, but win every other game. This would put them at 11-1, and they’d need some help. Namely, they’d need Boise State to lose the Mountain West. A 12-1 Boise State would get the G5 bid over an 11-1 Army, but an 11-1 Army would get the G5 bid over any other possible challenger. I give this scenario perhaps a 10% chance of happening.
This line seems pretty mispriced to me- I think it might be +1500 because people do not realize that the Army/Navy game will not be considered in the playoff selection process, as it happens the week after the playoff bracket is revealed. The Navy game will be a tough one, so Army’s chances of going undefeated are a good bit higher if you don’t include that matchup.
SMU over 2.5 wins in November -150 (6 units)
I cannot believe this line. SMU has 4 games in October, and we need them to go 3-1 to cash this bet.
They’re 7.5 point favorites against Pitt this week, and I think they should be closer to 10 point favorites.
They’ll be around 10.5 point favorites against Boston College and Virginia, and I think they should be around 14 point favorites in each game.
They finish the season with Cal, where they’ll be around 9 point favorites.
This line is not consistent with their remaining schedule, and I’m bullish on SMU anyways. I love this line.
Kansas State over 2.5 wins in November -175 (3 units)
Like SMU, Kansas State has 4 games in November and we need them to go 3-1 to cash this. They’ll be a pick’em against Iowa State but will be double digit favorites in all of their other games. Kansas State is now my highest rated team in the Big 12 and this is another clear bet.