College Football Picks- Week 11 2025
I broke even on my weekly bets last week- I hit on SMU ML +400, but lost 3 units on Washington State. The Washington State bet was a weird one- Oregon State couldn’t get anything done on offense all game, but scored a late touchdown and won with under 200 yards of offense. On to the next week.
I won 10 units on my futures- my North Texas to make the playoff at 30/1 continues to look quite good.
Futures*: +41.4 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Week 6: +3.83 units
Week 7: +2.04 units
Week 8: +8.16 units
Week 9: +0.84 units
Week 10: 0 units
Season Total: +54.66 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I’m placing this bet on Arkansas State for two reasons. First, I like it- I think these teams are reasonably evenly matched. Second, it hedges my existing exposure- I have two units on Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West at +475. That’s pretty much a lock if they win this game, and a little worse than a coin flip if they lose. Arkansas State is a decent team that has miraculously held onto QB Jaylen Raynor for three years- he is a great athlete and could play at some P4 programs.
Arkansas State ML +160 (2 units)
Wake Forest @ Virginia (Saturday, 6 PM Central)
Virginia has been piling up wins by the skin of their teeth. Even last week’s double digit win over Cal was a bit of a fraud- it required a late pick six. However, I think the Cavaliers can roll here. They’re much more talented than Wake Forest, who might have the cheapest roster in the P4. Wake Forest got off to a good start, but they have no depth and that’s hurt them recently as the season wears along. I like Virginia to cruise here.
Virginia -6.5 -110 (1 unit)
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3 PM Central)
Georgia State has been a disaster since Dell McGee took over as HC a few years ago. He started in a weird spot- former HC Shawn Elliot stepped down at an awkward time, costing McGee a full recruiting cycle. However, it’s gone from bad to worse- Georgia State probably won’t win an FCS game all year. Coastal Carolina, on the other hand, has been much improved in recent weeks. I think they should really destroy an awful Georgia State team and I like the alt line here.
Coastal Carolina -21.5 +392 (1 unit)