Men’s Bracketology 3/15/2026 PM (FINAL)
Welcome to Selection Sunday! There’s nothing quite like the thrill of watching the bracket get revealed after a full season of putting these projections together.
I'm disagreeing with the consensus by having Auburn in the field as opposed to Texas. As I discussed yesterday, the committee has talked a lot about becoming more data-driven over the years, and the metrics say to include Auburn. I think the "16 loss" precedent that everyone is talking about is not that important- it's not an official selection criteria.
Best of luck to my fellow bracketologists, and I'll be back later in the week with my annual bracket picking guide.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: Houston, Connecticut, Iowa State, Michigan State
3: Illinois, Purdue, Gonzaga, Nebraska
4: Alabama, Virginia, Kansas, Vanderbilt
5: Texas Tech, St. John’s, Arkansas, Tennessee
6: Wisconsin, BYU, North Carolina, Louisville
7: Kentucky, Miami (FL), Clemson, UCLA
8: St. Mary’s, Ohio State, Utah State, Georgia
9: Villanova, TCU, Iowa, Saint Louis
10: NC State, Santa Clara, Texas A&M, UCF
11: VCU, (Missouri/SMU), (Miami (OH)/Auburn), South Florida/Wichita State winner
12: Akron, McNeese, High Point, Northern Iowa
13: Cal Baptist, Hawai’i, Hofstra, North Dakota State
14: Troy, Wright State, Pennsylvania, Kennesaw State
15: Tennessee State, UMBC, Furman, Idaho
16: Queens, Siena, (LIU/Howard), (Lehigh/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Texas, Oklahoma, San Diego State, New Mexico
Next Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Stanford
Moving In: Pennsylvania
Moving Out: Yale
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 10
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Mid-American: 2
Women’s Bracketology 3/15/2026 (FINAL)
Welcome to Selection Sunday! There’s been relatively few games of importance the last few days- mainly just Princeton winning the Ivy League tournament. They would’ve gotten an at-large with a loss, so that kept an extra spot for a bubble team.
The biggest item of note recently has been the committee revealing the 16 teams that will be hosting on the first weekend. I was a little surprised to see North Carolina hosting- I expected to see Maryland in their spot instead. It’s not crazy though- I had Maryland 16th on my seed list and had North Carolina 17th.
I’ve slotted Charleston and Murray State into the bracket for now- the CAA and MVC title games are still ongoing and I’m about to get on a flight. In the event that we have an upset, I’d make the following adjustments:
Hofstra beats Charleston: Hofstra out —> 16, High Point 16 —> 15, UTSA 15 —> 14, Charleston 14 —> out
Evansville beats Murray State: Evansville out —> 16, High Point 16 —> 15, UTSA 15 —> 14, Charleston 14 —> 13, Colorado State 13 —> 12, Murray State 12 —> out
First Four Out: Arizona State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Richmond
Next Four Out: Stanford, BYU, Florida, North Dakota State
Bids by Conference:
Big 10: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/15/2026 AM
I just have a quick update this morning as I’m travelling back to the US today. Happy Selection Sunday to all- and I’ll be back in the afternoon with my final update.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: Houston, Connecticut, Iowa State, Michigan State
3: Illinois, Purdue, Gonzaga, Nebraska
4: Alabama, Virginia, Kansas, Vanderbilt
5: Texas Tech, St. John’s, Arkansas, Tennessee
6: Wisconsin, BYU, North Carolina, Louisville
7: Kentucky, Miami (FL), Clemson, UCLA
8: St. Mary’s, Ohio State, Utah State, Georgia
9: Villanova, TCU, Iowa, Saint Louis
10: NC State, Santa Clara, Texas A&M, UCF
11: VCU, (Missouri/SMU), (Miami (OH)/Auburn), South Florida
12: Akron, Yale, McNeese, High Point
13: Northern Iowa, Cal Baptist, Hawai’i, Hofstra
14: North Dakota State, Wright State, Troy, Kennesaw State
15: Tennessee State, UMBC, Furman, Queens
16: Idaho, Siena, (LIU/Howard), (Lehigh/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Texas, Oklahoma, San Diego State, New Mexico
Next Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Stanford
Moving In: Hawai’i, Cal Baptist
Moving Out: UC Irvine, Utah Valley
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 10
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Mid-American: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/14/2026
I have definitely taken a different approach than most bracketologists by having Auburn in the field instead of Texas. I’m pretty at peace with this. The consistent message we have gotten from the committee from the last few years is that they increasingly care more and more about the six metrics on the team sheet. This was my biggest takeaway from the 2025 bracketology season- use those numbers as my guide and make small adjustments from there.
Auburn has a 44 resume average and a 35.3 predictive average. Texas has a 52.3 resume average and a 40.7 predictive average. I understand people are hung up on the “16 losses” thing with Auburn, but the committee has never explicitly said this is a criteria. Their schedule is certainly a lot better than 15 loss teams that have gotten in in the past.
We have a fun slate of games today including some potential bid thieves still on the board. I’ll have two updates tomorrow- an AM update and a final PM update after the last games wrap. Enjoy!
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: Connecticut, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State
3: Illinois, Purdue, Gonzaga, Nebraska
4: Alabama, Virginia, Kansas, Vanderbilt
5: Texas Tech, Arkansas, St. John’s, Tennessee
6: Wisconsin, BYU, North Carolina, Louisville
7: Kentucky, Miami (FL), Clemson, UCLA
8: St. Mary’s, Ohio State, Utah State, Georgia
9: Villanova, Saint Louis, TCU, Iowa
10: NC State, Santa Clara, Texas A&M, UCF
11: Missouri, (VCU/SMU), (Miami (OH)/Auburn), South Florida
12: Akron, Yale, McNeese, High Point
13: Northern Iowa, Utah Valley, Hofstra, North Dakota State
14: UC Irvine, Troy, Wright State, Tennessee State
15: UMBC, Kennesaw State, Furman, Queens
16: Idaho, Siena, (LIU/Howard), (Lehigh/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: Texas, San Diego State, Oklahoma, New Mexico
Next Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Stanford
Moving In: Kennesaw State
Moving Out: Sam Houston State
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 10
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Mid-American: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/13/2026
The bubble has officially shrunk by a spot as Miami (OH)’s loss to UMass opens the door for a 2 bid MAC. Texas is the casualty of that for now. The committee has talked a big game about being more metric-focused, and I don’t think a team with a resume average of 52 is going to get the benefit of the doubt if they’re on the cut line.
I still expect another bid stealer, perhaps two. The Mountain West is quite likely to produce a bid thief (I’m counting New Mexico and San Diego State as bid thieves), and the A-10 and Big East both have decent shots as well. Even Ole Miss lurks in the SEC.
The bubble is mostly done playing. VCU and Oklahoma are the main notable exceptions. An Oklahoma win today would make things very interesting for the Sooners, but I want to avoid falling for the same trap I fell for with Texas A&M in 2022 where a team goes on a late run in the conference tournament out of nowhere, just to be a surprise exclusion from the field.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: Connecticut, Houston, Michigan State, Iowa State
3: Illinois, Purdue, Alabama, Nebraska
4: Gonzaga, Kansas, Virginia, Texas Tech
5: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, St. John’s, Tennessee
6: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Louisville, BYU
7: St. Mary’s, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Clemson
8: UCLA, Utah State, Georgia, Ohio State
9: Villanova, TCU, Iowa, UCF
10: Texas A&M, Saint Louis, NC State, Santa Clara
11: Missouri, (VCU/SMU), (Miami (OH)/Auburn), South Florida
12: Akron, Yale, McNeese, High Point
13: Northern Iowa, Utah Valley, Hofstra, Sam Houston State
14: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Troy, Wright State
15: Tennessee State, UMBC, Furman, Queens
16: Idaho, Siena, (LIU/Howard), (Lehigh/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Indiana, San Diego State, Stanford, Seton Hall, California, Oklahoma State
Moving In: Akron
Moving Out: Texas
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 10
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Mid-American: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/12/2026
It was an awful day on the bubble as my last two teams in (SMU, Texas) and my first two teams out (Indiana, Cincinnati) all lost. Auburn and Oklahoma were the only bubble teams who won yesterday.
There are really not many teams who can play their way into the field at this point. Of the teams that are outside my field who are still alive in their conference tournaments, only Oklahoma can really play their way in. Seton Hall is too far back and probably needs wins over both St. John’s and UConn (at which point they’d have the auto-bid anyways). Similarly, New Mexico and San Diego State are both reasonably far back and probably need to beat the other one and win again after that (at which point they’d also have the auto-bid anyways). There’s some chance that New Mexico could get in with a win over SDSU and a loss in the Mountain West title game but I wouldn’t bank on it.
That means that the biggest factor we have left in determining the bubble is the number of bid stealers we get. The A-10, MAC and Mountain West are all more likely than not to produce a bid thief. We also have an outside chance of getting one in the Big East or ACC. My best guess is that we get 2, which for now would knock out SMU and Texas.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: Connecticut, Houston, Michigan State, Illinois
3: Iowa State, Purdue, Alabama, Nebraska
4: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Kansas, Virginia
5: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, St. John’s, Tennessee
6: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Louisville, BYU
7: St. Mary’s, Miami (FL), Kentucky, UCLA
8: Georgia, Villanova, Utah State, Clemson
9: Ohio State, TCU, Texas A&M, Iowa
10: UCF, Saint Louis, NC State, Santa Clara
11: Miami (OH), Missouri, (VCU/Auburn), (SMU/Texas)
12: South Florida, Yale, McNeese, High Point
13: Northern Iowa, Utah Valley, Hofstra, Sam Houston State
14: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Troy, Wright State
15: Tennessee State, UMBC, Furman, Queens
16: Idaho, Siena, (LIU/Howard), (Lehigh/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Indiana, San Diego State, Stanford, Seton Hall, California, Oklahoma State
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/11/2026
I’m not going to go so far as to call Virginia Tech and Stanford “dead”, but I would be quite surprised to see either team in the final bracket after their losses in the opening round of the ACC tournament. Santa Clara is the converse of that- I won’t call them a “lock” given the weird stuff we’ve seen the committee do with mid-majors in recent years, but I would be shocked if they don’t end up making the tournament.
Bubble action really gets going today with the 5 teams closest to the cut line (Auburn, SMU, Texas, Indiana, Cincinnati) all in action. With the way this year’s bubble has gone, they’ll probably end up going 0-5 today.
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Moving In: Montana, Siena
Moving Out: Portland State, Merrimack
Men’s Bracketology 3/10/2026
Congrats to Santa Clara, who got a massive Q1 win over St. Mary’s in the WCC semis last night. I’m not willing to use the word “lock” right now to describe the Broncos since the committee has done some weird stuff with mid-majors in recent years, but I would be shocked if their name is not called on Selection Sunday.
Power conference bubble action gets started today in the ACC with Stanford, SMU and Virginia Tech all in action. SMU will likely drop out of my field with a loss to Syracuse.
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Moving In: Furman
Moving Out: East Tennessee State
Women’s Bracketology 3/10/2026
There were no huge surprises in the major conference tournaments. In the SEC, Texas dominated South Carolina to pass them on the 1 line, and Vanderbilt’s loss to Ole Miss cost them any chance at a 1 seed. In the Big Ten, Minnesota likely sowed up hosting the first weekend, and Maryland probably did too.
On the bubble, it was a poor week. I really had to hold my nose when picking my last two teams- I ultimately went with Mississippi State and Utah. I’ve seen others pick Arizona State and Richmond, which I could certainly see, but I went with the teams with multiple Q1 wins.
I’ll be back with a final update on Sunday after all the conference tournaments wrap.
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 2
Moving In: Mississippi State
Moving Out: Texas A&M
Men’s Bracketology 3/9/2026
I just have a seed list today, I’ll be back with a full bracket tomorrow (I’ve been busy- I got married this weekend!)
It was a poor weekend for bubble teams. That keeps teams like Indiana and Virginia Tech, who I thought would be drawing dead with a loss, in the hunt. It also puts Stanford back into contention, who I had pretty much entirely written off.
I am willing to call the first 35 teams on my seed list (Texas A&M on up) as locks. The next six teams (Iowa through Missouri) I’d all give a >90% chance of making the field. The real bubble starts at Santa Clara and ends at Stanford.
It’s worth noting that the bubble is very likely to contract from bid stealers. I think the most likely outcome is that we get two bid stealers this year.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: Connecticut, Houston, Michigan State, Illinois
3: Iowa State, Purdue, Alabama, Nebraska
4: Texas Tech, Kansas, Gonzaga, Virginia
5: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, St. John’s, Tennessee
6: North Carolina, Wisconsin, St. Mary’s, Louisville
7: BYU, Kentucky, UCLA, Miami (FL)
8: Georgia, Villanova, Utah State, Clemson
9: Ohio State, TCU, Texas A&M, Iowa
10: Saint Louis, NC State, UCF, Miami (OH)
11: Missouri, Santa Clara, (VCU/Auburn), (Texas/SMU)
12: South Florida, Yale, McNeese, High Point
13: Northern Iowa, Liberty, Utah Valley, Hofstra
14: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Troy, East Tennessee State
15: Wright State, Merrimack, Portland State, Tennessee State
16: UMBC, Queens, LIU, Bethune Cookman, Howard, Boston University
First Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cincinnati
Next Four Out: San Diego State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Seton Hall
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Moving In: Boston University, Northern Iowa, Hofstra
Moving Out: Navy, Belmont, UNC Wilmington
Men’s Bracketology 3/6/2026
Thursday was a pretty quiet night, as it often has been this season. Iowa missed the chance to 100% lock up a bid with a close loss to Michigan. The Hawkeyes are still quite likely to get in even if they don’t win another game this season, but I’m hesitant to call them a lock, in case we have a lot of bid stealers this year.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut
2: Florida, Houston, Illinois, Michigan State
3: Purdue, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Nebraska
4: Kansas, Alabama, Gonzaga, Virginia
5: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, North Carolina, St. John’s
6: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Louisville, St. Mary’s
7: Kentucky, Miami (FL), BYU, Clemson
8: Saint Louis, Villanova, Georgia, NC State
9: UCLA, Iowa, Utah State, UCF
10: TCU, Texas, Miami (OH), Missouri
11: Texas A&M, Ohio State, (Santa Clara/SMU), (Auburn/VCU)
12: South Florida, Belmont, Yale, McNeese
13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist
14: Hawai’i, North Dakota State, Navy, Austin Peay
15: Troy, East Tennessee State, Merrimack, Wright State
16: Portland State, UMBC, (LIU/Bethune Cookman), (Tennessee State/Howard)
First Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Cincinnati
Also Considered: California, Seton Hall, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, USC
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/5/2026
It was a poor night for bubble teams with SMU, New Mexico and USC all losing. New Mexico was pretty non-competitive against Colorado State and now falls out of the bracket with both their resume average and predictive average on the wrong side of 50.
SMU is becoming interesting in a hurry. The Mustangs have been pretty safely in the field all year. If I was seeding the field straight by WAB, they’d be my last team in right now. A road trip to Florida State completes their regular season- a loss there and they’ll likely be on the wrong side of the bubble headed into the ACC tournament.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut
2: Florida, Houston, Illinois, Michigan State
3: Purdue, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Nebraska
4: Kansas, Alabama, Gonzaga, Virginia
5: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, North Carolina, St. John’s
6: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Louisville, St. Mary’s
7: Kentucky, Miami (FL), BYU, Clemson
8: Saint Louis, Villanova, Georgia, Iowa
9: NC State, UCLA, Utah State, UCF
10: TCU, Texas, Miami (OH), Missouri
11: Texas A&M, Ohio State, (Santa Clara/SMU), (Auburn/VCU)
12: South Florida, Belmont, Yale, McNeese
13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist
14: Hawai’i, North Dakota State, Navy, Austin Peay
15: Troy, East Tennessee State, Merrimack, Wright State
16: Portland State, UMBC, (LIU/Bethune Cookman), (Tennessee State/Howard)
First Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Cincinnati
Also Considered: California, Seton Hall, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, USC
Moving In: VCU
Moving Out: New Mexico
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/4/2026
Tuesday was a pretty strong night for the bubble. UCLA and TCU both look very safe (>95% chance of a bid) after Q1-A wins over Nebraska and Texas Tech. Texas A&M picked up a nice win over Kentucky. Auburn avoided disaster against LSU. Cincinnati moved closer to contention with a win over BYU.
The quagmire on the 2-4 lines also eased up a bit since my last update with Texas Tech, Iowa State, Nebraska, Kansas and Alabama all losing. That allowed Michigan State to move up to a 2 seed.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut
2: Florida, Houston, Illinois, Michigan State
3: Purdue, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Nebraska
4: Kansas, Alabama, Gonzaga, Virginia
5: Vanderbilt, North Carolina, St. John’s, Arkansas
6: Tennessee, Wisconsin, Louisville, St. Mary’s
7: Kentucky, Miami (FL), BYU, Clemson
8: Saint Louis, Georgia, Villanova, Utah State
9: Iowa, NC State, UCLA, UCF
10: TCU, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri
11: Miami (OH), SMU, (Santa Clara/Ohio State), (New Mexico/Auburn)
12: South Florida, Belmont, Yale, McNeese
13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist
14: Hawai’i, North Dakota State, Navy, Austin Peay
15: Troy, East Tennessee State, Merrimack, Wright State
16: Portland State, UMBC, (LIU/Bethune Cookman), (Tennessee State/Howard)
First Four Out: Indiana, VCU, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati
Also Considered: California, USC, Seton Hall, San Diego State, Oklahoma State
Women’s Bracketology 3/3/2026
The committee’s top 16 reveal over the weekend went largely as expected, they moved Texas back up to the 1 line to match what I had. The one major change I’ve made since the reveal is to drop Michigan State from a protected seed after their blowout loss to Ohio State. Instead, North Carolina takes the last hosting spot.
On the bubble, our big mover of the week is Texas A&M. The Aggies closed the season with their second Q1 win of the season, a road win at Ole Miss. They weren’t even on my radar screen three weeks ago but a 5-0 finish puts them in a play-in game for now.
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/2/26
It was a crazy weekend near the top of the bracket- I have no idea what to do between 8th and 14th on my seed list. I went with the perhaps controversial choice of giving the last 2 seed to Texas Tech, because I think the committee will really love their quartet of high Q1-A wins (at Arizona, at Iowa State, vs. Duke, vs. Houston). But I could see any number of teams in that spot.
Bubble teams overall had a poor weekend with UCLA, Auburn, Indiana, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Cal, USC and Seton Hall all losing. The biggest winner was clearly Ohio State, who picked up their first Q1 win of the season over Purdue and moves in for now.
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/28/2026
I had a really tough time figuring out the 2 through 4 lines in this update. The 5th place team in WAB (Michigan State) and the 11th place team (Florida) are separated by 0.3 WAB, which is practically nothing. With resumes so similar around there, I moved Florida all the way up from 9 overall to 5 overall thanks to their dominant predictive metrics.
On the bubble, Cal moves in after their win over SMU, while Ohio State falls out. The bubble picture should be a good bit clearer after this weekend.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut
2: Florida, Iowa State, Purdue, Houston
3: Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan State
4: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Virginia, Alabama
5: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, North Carolina
6: St. John’s, BYU, Louisville, Iowa
7: Villanova, Utah State, NC State, Wisconsin
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, Saint Louis, UCF
9: SMU, Miami (FL), Clemson, Texas A&M
10: Georgia, UCLA, Missouri, Miami (OH)
11: Auburn, Santa Clara, (Texas/TCU), (Indiana/California)
12: Belmont, Yale, South Florida, McNeese
13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist
14: Austin Peay, North Dakota State, Hawai’i, East Tennessee State
15: Merrimack, Navy, Troy, Portland State
16: Wright State, UMBC, (UT Martin/Bethune-Cookman), (LIU/Howard)
First Four Out: New Mexico, Ohio State, VCU, San Diego State
Next Six Out: USC, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Nevada, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Moving In; California
Moving Out: Ohio State
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Men’s Bracketology 2/25/2026
The biggest bubble loser of the night was Indiana. The Hoosiers had a pretty clean profile with no losses outside of Q1. After a home loss to Northwestern (their 6th straight to the Wildcats!), they’ve picked up a Q3 loss. Add it on to their 2-10 Q1 record and resume average of 52, and it’s getting dicey.
The fact that I still have them in the tournament is more a statement of “the computers like them, so they’ll probably do just enough down the stretch to get in” than “they’re in the field of the season ended right now”. Plus, my other options were USC (outside the top 50 in resume and predictive metrics) and New Mexico (similar resume metrics to Indiana, worse predictives).
Bubble winners included TCU and UCLA. UCF and Miami are also locks after their wins last night.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut
2: Purdue, Iowa State, Illinois, Houston
3: Florida, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Kansas
4: Texas Tech, Virginia, Michigan State, Alabama
5: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, St. John’s, Tennessee
6: North Carolina, BYU, Wisconsin, Louisville
7: Villanova, Utah State, Iowa, Kentucky
8: NC State, UCF, Miami (FL), St. Mary’s
9: SMU, Saint Louis, Georgia, Texas A&M
10: Clemson, Missouri, Miami (OH), UCLA
11: Texas, Santa Clara, (Auburn/Ohio State), (TCU/Indiana)
12: Belmont, Yale, South Florida, McNeese
13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist
14: Austin Peay, North Dakota State, Hawai’i, East Tennessee State
15: Merrimack, Navy, Troy, Portland State
16: Wright State, UMBC, (UT Martin/Bethune-Cookman), (LIU/Howard)
First Four Out: New Mexico, USC, VCU, California
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Nevada, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Moving In; TCU
Moving Out: New Mexico
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big Ten: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology Bets 2/23/2026
Indiana to miss the tournament +425 (1 unit)
Indiana is in the field for now, but after an 0-2 week, they’re getting close to the cut line. Their predictive average is strong at 33.7, but their resume average of 46.3 indicates they should be right on the cut line. They close with two easy games at home against Northwestern and Minnesota, and two tough games (home against Michigan State, at Ohio State). A 2-2 finish is a net negative for them and would put them right on the cutline, a 3-1 finish puts them in great shape and a 1-3 finish puts them is very bad shape. I think this should be +280 or so and there’s some value at +425.
Women’s Bracketology 2/23/2026
Relatively little has changed since my women’s bracket last week. I have the same 1 seeds and the same 16 teams hosting. Iowa climbed up to a 2 seed after a dominating win over Michigan, while Tennessee fell after a shocking loss to Texas A&M.
On the bubble, Virginia moved in after a shocking road win at Louisville. They took Utah’s spot, who fell to non-tournament BYU.
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/23/2026
A lot of people have said this is a weak bubble. I disagree- the word I would use to describe this bubble is “shallow”. There are only 3 teams outside my current field who I give a 25% chance or more of making the tournament (TCU, USC, Cal) and only 4 more I give a 10-25% chance (VCU, San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall).
On the flip side, we have a whole host of teams in “safe for now, but could screw it up” territory. My 11 seeds all have a 50-70% chance at the field, and my 10 seeds are in the 70-85% range. It feels like there are more teams that can play their way out of the tournament than teams that can play their way in.
This is my first bracket of the year to not feature USC. The Trojans took a Q3 home loss to Oregon which featured some truly awful iso ball on the last few USC possessions. USC needs to go 2-2 to close the season.
Moving In: New Mexico
Moving Out: USC
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big Ten: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2