Women’s Bracketology 3/3/2026
The committee’s top 16 reveal over the weekend went largely as expected, they moved Texas back up to the 1 line to match what I had. The one major change I’ve made since the reveal is to drop Michigan State from a protected seed after their blowout loss to Ohio State. Instead, North Carolina takes the last hosting spot.
On the bubble, our big mover of the week is Texas A&M. The Aggies closed the season with their second Q1 win of the season, a road win at Ole Miss. They weren’t even on my radar screen three weeks ago but a 5-0 finish puts them in a play-in game for now.
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 2
Men’s Bracketology 3/2/26
It was a crazy weekend near the top of the bracket- I have no idea what to do between 8th and 14th on my seed list. I went with the perhaps controversial choice of giving the last 2 seed to Texas Tech, because I think the committee will really love their quartet of high Q1-A wins (at Arizona, at Iowa State, vs. Duke, vs. Houston). But I could see any number of teams in that spot.
Bubble teams overall had a poor weekend with UCLA, Auburn, Indiana, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Cal, USC and Seton Hall all losing. The biggest winner was clearly Ohio State, who picked up their first Q1 win of the season over Purdue and moves in for now.
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/28/2026
I had a really tough time figuring out the 2 through 4 lines in this update. The 5th place team in WAB (Michigan State) and the 11th place team (Florida) are separated by 0.3 WAB, which is practically nothing. With resumes so similar around there, I moved Florida all the way up from 9 overall to 5 overall thanks to their dominant predictive metrics.
On the bubble, Cal moves in after their win over SMU, while Ohio State falls out. The bubble picture should be a good bit clearer after this weekend.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut
2: Florida, Iowa State, Purdue, Houston
3: Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan State
4: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Virginia, Alabama
5: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, North Carolina
6: St. John’s, BYU, Louisville, Iowa
7: Villanova, Utah State, NC State, Wisconsin
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, Saint Louis, UCF
9: SMU, Miami (FL), Clemson, Texas A&M
10: Georgia, UCLA, Missouri, Miami (OH)
11: Auburn, Santa Clara, (Texas/TCU), (Indiana/California)
12: Belmont, Yale, South Florida, McNeese
13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist
14: Austin Peay, North Dakota State, Hawai’i, East Tennessee State
15: Merrimack, Navy, Troy, Portland State
16: Wright State, UMBC, (UT Martin/Bethune-Cookman), (LIU/Howard)
First Four Out: New Mexico, Ohio State, VCU, San Diego State
Next Six Out: USC, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Nevada, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Moving In; California
Moving Out: Ohio State
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big Ten: 9
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Men’s Bracketology 2/25/2026
The biggest bubble loser of the night was Indiana. The Hoosiers had a pretty clean profile with no losses outside of Q1. After a home loss to Northwestern (their 6th straight to the Wildcats!), they’ve picked up a Q3 loss. Add it on to their 2-10 Q1 record and resume average of 52, and it’s getting dicey.
The fact that I still have them in the tournament is more a statement of “the computers like them, so they’ll probably do just enough down the stretch to get in” than “they’re in the field of the season ended right now”. Plus, my other options were USC (outside the top 50 in resume and predictive metrics) and New Mexico (similar resume metrics to Indiana, worse predictives).
Bubble winners included TCU and UCLA. UCF and Miami are also locks after their wins last night.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut
2: Purdue, Iowa State, Illinois, Houston
3: Florida, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Kansas
4: Texas Tech, Virginia, Michigan State, Alabama
5: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, St. John’s, Tennessee
6: North Carolina, BYU, Wisconsin, Louisville
7: Villanova, Utah State, Iowa, Kentucky
8: NC State, UCF, Miami (FL), St. Mary’s
9: SMU, Saint Louis, Georgia, Texas A&M
10: Clemson, Missouri, Miami (OH), UCLA
11: Texas, Santa Clara, (Auburn/Ohio State), (TCU/Indiana)
12: Belmont, Yale, South Florida, McNeese
13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist
14: Austin Peay, North Dakota State, Hawai’i, East Tennessee State
15: Merrimack, Navy, Troy, Portland State
16: Wright State, UMBC, (UT Martin/Bethune-Cookman), (LIU/Howard)
First Four Out: New Mexico, USC, VCU, California
Next Four Out: San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Nevada, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Moving In; TCU
Moving Out: New Mexico
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big Ten: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology Bets 2/23/2026
Indiana to miss the tournament +425 (1 unit)
Indiana is in the field for now, but after an 0-2 week, they’re getting close to the cut line. Their predictive average is strong at 33.7, but their resume average of 46.3 indicates they should be right on the cut line. They close with two easy games at home against Northwestern and Minnesota, and two tough games (home against Michigan State, at Ohio State). A 2-2 finish is a net negative for them and would put them right on the cutline, a 3-1 finish puts them in great shape and a 1-3 finish puts them is very bad shape. I think this should be +280 or so and there’s some value at +425.
Women’s Bracketology 2/23/2026
Relatively little has changed since my women’s bracket last week. I have the same 1 seeds and the same 16 teams hosting. Iowa climbed up to a 2 seed after a dominating win over Michigan, while Tennessee fell after a shocking loss to Texas A&M.
On the bubble, Virginia moved in after a shocking road win at Louisville. They took Utah’s spot, who fell to non-tournament BYU.
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 8
Big East: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/23/2026
A lot of people have said this is a weak bubble. I disagree- the word I would use to describe this bubble is “shallow”. There are only 3 teams outside my current field who I give a 25% chance or more of making the tournament (TCU, USC, Cal) and only 4 more I give a 10-25% chance (VCU, San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall).
On the flip side, we have a whole host of teams in “safe for now, but could screw it up” territory. My 11 seeds all have a 50-70% chance at the field, and my 10 seeds are in the 70-85% range. It feels like there are more teams that can play their way out of the tournament than teams that can play their way in.
This is my first bracket of the year to not feature USC. The Trojans took a Q3 home loss to Oregon which featured some truly awful iso ball on the last few USC possessions. USC needs to go 2-2 to close the season.
Moving In: New Mexico
Moving Out: USC
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 11
Big Ten: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/21/2026
The selection committee reveals their top 16 teams this afternoon. I’m most interested to see what they choose to do with Texas Tech. If Texas Tech was healthy, I’d have them 14 or 15 overall. However, based on the precedent the committee has set re: injuries, JT Toppin’s ACL tear should drop them considerably.
It’s a massive day of hoops, starting at the top of the bracket with Michigan/Duke and Arizona/Houston. The seed list will be all shaken up for my Monday morning update. Enjoy!
Moving In: Missouri
Moving Out: New Mexico
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 11
SEC: 11
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Bracketology Bets 2/19/2026
It’s been another good few days for my bracketology bets. I bet a bunch on Ohio State to make the tournament at +310, they won a coin flip game against Wisconsin and moved to -150. That shows how stupid a price +310 was.
San Diego State to miss the tournament +135 (1 unit)
San Diego State took a brutal home loss to Grand Canyon on Tuesday and is now pretty clearly out of the field. They’re the first or second team out in most projections you look at right now. I think if they go 4-1 down the stretch they’re looking pretty decent for a bid, and if they go 3-2 they’re looking very shaky for a bid. Of course, they could also go out and win the Mountain West tournament, which has maybe a 20% chance. The committee is not going to give a Mountain West team the benefit of the doubt if it’s close on Selection Sunday and I think they’re a bit worse than a coin flip to get in right now.
Men’s Bracketology 2/18/2026
It was a busy Tuesday night on the bubble. Georgia was the biggest winner- the Bulldogs have been in freefall the last few weeks, but went to Rupp Arena and knocked off Kentucky for their biggest win of the year. The biggest loser was San Diego State, who fell at home to Grand Canyon and falls out of the field. UCLA also was non-competitive in a loss to Michigan State, they’re now my second to last team in.
1: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Connecticut
2: Houston, Iowa State, Purdue, Illinois
3: Nebraska, Kansas, Florida, Gonzaga
4: Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Texas Tech
5: Alabama, Arkansas, St. John’s, Tennessee
6: Louisville, Villanova, BYU, Utah State
7: North Carolina, Saint Louis, NC State, Kentucky
8: Clemson, Wisconsin, Iowa, Miami (FL)
9: St. Mary’s, SMU, Auburn, Indiana
10: UCF, Texas, Texas A&M, USC
11: Georgia, Miami (OH), (Ohio State/Santa Clara), (UCLA/New Mexico)
12: Belmont, McNeese, South Florida, Liberty
13: Yale, High Point, UNC Wilmington, Cal Baptist
14: Hawai’i, St. Thomas, Austin Peay, Portland State
15: Troy, East Tennessee State, Oakland, Navy
16: Merrimack, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)
First Four Out: San Diego State, VCU, Missouri, TCU
Next Four Out: West Virginia, Seton Hall, California, Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Baylor, Stanford
Moving In: New Mexico
Moving Out: San Diego State
Bids by Conference:
Big 10: 11
SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Women’s Bracketology 2/16/2026
I'm back with my inaugural women’s bracketology of the season. Connecticut and UCLA are the obvious top 2 seeds, but there’s some intrigue behind them. Texas grabs the third 1 seed thanks to wins over UCLA and South Carolina, while the Gamecocks grab the last 1 seed thanks to their road win at LSU yesterday.
If you think men’s basketball is light on mid-majors, just look at the women’s side. I don’t have a single mid-major team projected for an at-large bid here (although Princeton and Rhode Island could probably get them if they needed them).
Bids by Conference:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
Big 12: 9
ACC: 8
Big East: 2
Bracketology Bets 2/16/2026
Ohio State to make the tournament +310 (3 units)
I really couldn’t believe this line. Ohio State is my last team in the field right now- a resume average of 52 and a predictive average of 39 is typically right around the cutline. The Buckeyes are probably in with a 3-3 finish and probably out with a 2-4 finish. Kenpom projects them for 2.6 remaining wins. I think this is an overreaction to a close lose to Virginia- they moved from -115 to +310 after that game.
California to miss the tournament -250 (3 units)
This pains me as a Cal fan, but this line is simply too high. Cal is going to be left out if there’s any room for doubt given their awful predictive metrics and awful NCSOS. They have an easy remaining schedule, but I don’t think they’re a slam dunk lock even with a 5-0 finish. A 4-1 finish would give them a small chance, but their most likely outcomes are 3-2 and 2-3.
Santa Clara to make the tournament +130 (1 unit)
Santa Clara was -300 before their game against Gonzaga and moved all the way to +130 after the loss. That loss hurts, don’t get me wrong, but it’s an overreaction. Santa Clara plays St. Mary’s twice more (once in the regular season, and very likely once in the conference tournament). They just need to win one of those games, and avoid bad losses, and they’ll likely be in the field. That’s a bit better than a 50% chance.
Men’s Bracketology 2/16/2026
It’s a month to Selection Sunday! A reminder that the bracket is generally pretty set in stone a month out- if historical precedent is a guide, 38 of the top 40 teams in this bracket will make the tournament, and only 3 or 4 teams outside the tournament will make it in.
The weekend’s biggest bubble losers were Georgia, who dropped their fifth game out of their last six, and UCF, who dropped their third straight. Both teams have huge bubble clashes coming up this week, against Texas and TCU respectively.
Bids by Conference:
Big 10: 11
SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/13/2026
A strong week for the bubble continued on Wednesday night with Missouri winning at Texas A&M and Virginia Tech winning at Clemson.
It’s a bit of an interesting bubble dynamic where there’s lots of teams in the field on shaky ground, but a relatively small roster of teams outside the field with a realistic chance. I think everyone from Auburn on down to the cut line is somewhere between 50%-85% to make the field, but past my First Four Out, the odds fall off a cliff dramatically. Teams like Seton Hall and Oklahoma State are probably somewhere in the 10-20% range to make it.
1: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Connecticut
2: Houston, Purdue, Illinois, Kansas
3: Iowa State, Nebraska, Florida, Michigan State
4: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Virginia
5: Texas Tech, Arkansas, Louisville, St. John’s
6: North Carolina, BYU, Tennessee, Saint Louis
7: Utah State, Kentucky, Iowa, Clemson
8: Villanova, NC State, Wisconsin, UCF
9: St. Mary’s, Indiana, Auburn, SMU
10: USC, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Santa Clara
11: Georgia, (UCLA/Ohio State), (San Diego State/Texas), Miami (OH)
12: Tulsa, Belmont, Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, Hawai’i, High Point, UNC Wilmington
14: Cal Baptist, St. Thomas, East Tennessee State, Troy
15: Portland State, Wright State, Austin Peay, Navy
16: Merrimack, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)
First Four Out: Missouri, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, TCU
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, VCU, Oklahoma State, Baylor
Also Considered: Nevada, California, West Virginia, Boise State, LSU, George Mason, Stanford
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big 10: 11
SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/11/2026
Tuesday night gave us two huge bubble winners: Wisconsin and TCU. Wisconsin went on the road to Illinois and picked up their second massive road win of the season (the first was at Michigan a month ago). Wisconsin was looking solid even without this win, but they’re now looking very good for a bid.
TCU knocked off Iowa State at home and moves from “also considered” to my 3rd team out. This is the first big win for a team on the wrong side of the bubble in weeks- teams like Seton Hall, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and Baylor have been routinely striking out in these marquee opportunities. TCU was the first team to take one.
1: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Connecticut
2: Houston, Purdue, Illinois, Kansas
3: Iowa State, Nebraska, Michigan State, Florida
4: Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Virginia
5: Arkansas, Texas Tech, Louisville, St. John’s
6: North Carolina, BYU, Tennessee, Iowa
7: Clemson, Saint Louis, Utah State, Kentucky
8: Villanova, NC State, Texas A&M, Wisconsin
9: St. Mary’s, UCF, Indiana, USC
10: Auburn, Georgia, SMU, Miami (FL)
11: Santa Clara, (UCLA/San Diego State), (Ohio State/Texas), Miami (OH)
12: Tulsa, Belmont, Liberty, McNeese
13: Yale, Utah Valley, Hawai’i, High Point
14: UNC Wilmington, St. Thomas, East Tennessee State, Troy
15: Portland State, Wright State, Austin Peay, Navy
16: Merrimack, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)
First Four Out: New Mexico, Missouri, TCU, VCU
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, California, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State
Also Considered: Baylor, Nevada, Washington, West Virginia, Boise State, LSU, George Mason, Stanford
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big 10: 11
SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Bracketology Bets 2/11/2026
USC to make the tournament -106 (2 units)
This line confuses me. Sure, the predictive metrics don’t love USC- their predictive average is 47.7- but that’s average for a bubble team, not disqualifying. Their resume average of 34 indicates that they’d be safely in the field if it was selected today. I think USC definitely gets in with a 3-4 finish and probably gets in with a 2-3 finish.
Bracketology Bets 2/9/2026
Stanford to miss tournament -900 (3 units)
Stanford was a fun story to start the season and has a legitimate NBA player in Ebuka Okorie. Unfortunately, they’re 1-4 since their second best player (Chisom Okpara) was ruled out for the season. They’re nowhere near the field right now, and if they end up close to the bubble, they won’t get the benefit of the doubt thanks to their bad predictive metrics. This should be -2000 or -2500.
Missouri to make tournament +230 (2 unit)
I bet Missouri to miss the tournament last week at -205. Since then, the only thing that’s happened is they won on the road by 19 points. And their odds to make the tournament have… gotten worse? I don’t get it. The Tigers should get in with a 4-4 finish.
Virginia Tech to miss tournament -350 (2 units)
Like Stanford, Virginia Tech is not close to the tournament right now, and has a lot of work to do. They do have chances remaining- road trips to Clemson, Miami, North Carolina and Virginia await. I think they probably need to win two of those, and win all three remaining home games. It’s a very tough ask for a team that only has two road wins this season and predictive metrics in the 60s.
Men’s Bracketology 2/9/2026
The weekend’s big winners include:
North Carolina, who is knocking on the door of a protected seed after beating Duke
Michigan State, who got their first Q1-A win of the season against Illinois
VCU, who continues to stack wins together and moves into my First Four Out
Other than New Mexico’s home loss to Boise State, not much happened on the bubble- we mostly saw teams like Texas and USC take care of business.
Moving In: San Diego State
Moving Out: New Mexico
Bids by Conference:
Big 10: 11
SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/7/2026
The biggest change in this update is Illinois moving up to a 1 seed after UConn lost to St. John’s. It’s a bit weird to make that swap- UConn does have the head to head win- but Illinois’ elite road wins at Nebraska and at Purdue are hard to ignore. And regardless, the Illinois/Connecticut debate should shake itself out today- if Illinois wins at Michigan State, they clearly belong on the 1 line, and if they lose, UConn will reclaim their spot.
1: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Illinois
2: Connecticut, Nebraska, Iowa State, Houston
3: Purdue, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Kansas
4: Florida, Gonzaga, Virginia, Texas Tech
5: Alabama, BYU, Tennessee, St. John’s
6: Iowa, Arkansas, North Carolina, Clemson
7: Louisville, Utah State, Saint Louis, Villanova
8: Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M, NC State
9: UCF, St. Mary’s, Wisconsin, USC
10: SMU, Indiana, Georgia, Santa Clara
11: UCLA, (Miami (FL)/Ohio State), (New Mexico/Texas), Miami (OH)
12: Belmont, Tulsa, Liberty, Yale
13: McNeese, High Point. Hawai’i, Utah Valley
14: UNC Wilmington, East Tennessee State, North Dakota State, Wright State
15: Troy, Portland State, Austin Peay, Siena
16: Navy, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)
First Four Out: San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall, California
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Missouri, Baylor, VCU
Also Considered: Washington, LSU, George Mason, Nevada, West Virginia, TCU
Moving In: Wright State
Moving Out: Oakland
Bids by Conference:
Big 10: 11
SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2
Men’s Bracketology 2/4/2026
USC was the biggest bubble winner of the night, as the Trojans are now reasonably comfortably in the field after their win over Indiana. Meanwhile, teams like SMU and Georgia that I thought were comfortably in the field have picked up a few losses in a row and have slid into Last Four Byes territory.
1: Arizona, Michigan, Duke, Connecticut
2: Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa State, Houston
3: Purdue, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Vanderbilt
4: Kansas, BYU, Florida, Virginia
5: Texas Tech, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas
6: North Carolina, St. John’s, Iowa, Clemson
7: Saint Louis, Louisville, UCF, Texas A&M
8: Auburn, Villanova, Kentucky, NC State
9: Utah State, St. Mary’s, Wisconsin, USC
10: New Mexico, SMU, Indiana, Georgia
11: UCLA, (Miami (FL)/Santa Clara), (Ohio State/Texas), Miami (OH)
12: Belmont, Tulsa, Liberty, Yale
13: McNeese, High Point. Hawai’i, Utah Valley
14: UNC Wilmington, Oakland, East Tennessee State, North Dakota State
15: Troy, Portland State, Austin Peay, Siena
16: Navy, UT-Martin, (LIU/Bethune-Cookman), (Vermont/Howard)
First Four Out: San Diego State, Seton Hall, George Mason, California
Next Four Out: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Missouri, VCU
Also Considered: Washington, LSU, Baylor, Nevada, TCU, Akron, Grand Canyon, West Virginia, Stanford, Butler
Moving In: None
Moving Out: None
Bids by Conference:
Big 10: 11
SEC: 10
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Mountain West: 2