College Football Playoff Picture- Week 7 2025
The SEC race was looking very cloudy a few weeks ago, but is starting to look a bit clearer now. Here’s a few things to know as we head into mid-October:
(1) All SEC teams with 2 losses or fewer should make the playoff. This was not a guarantee a few weeks ago- but there’s been enough chaos elsewhere (Penn State, Clemson and Florida State losing, the Big 12 eating itself etc.) that no 10-2 SEC team will get left out.
(2) Chances are rising for a 9-3 SEC team to make the playoff. I have a 9-3 SEC team getting a bid in approximately 60% of simulations right now. Texas, Texas A&M and Alabama are the teams with the best shot of getting a bid at 9-3.
(3) This week’s games will be telling. The winner of LSU/Vanderbilt will rise to about 40% to make the playoff while the loser will fall below 10%. The winner of Georgia/Ole Miss will rise to about 90% to make the playoff while the loser will fall to 50 or 60%.
(4) The most likely scenarios are that we get 4 or 5 SEC teams in the playoff.
The Big Ten is in a much weaker position than last year. Things worked out great for the Big Ten last year- they had 4 teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Indiana) make the playoff relatively comfortably, and no one else come close.
This year, the conference doesn’t look so lucky. Ohio State and Indiana both look like total locks. Oregon is looking good, but has three tough games against Iowa, USC and Washington and must win two of them.
After that, we have a handful of teams that could play their win into contention, but are far outside the field right now. I think USC is the best team of the bunch, but the Trojans have a tough road trip to Notre Dame this week. Washington and Michigan play what is functionally an elimination game this weekend.
It would take an epic collapse for Miami to miss the playoff. They did do it last year- I had them at 90% to make the playoff before their losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse- but I feel better about this year’s team.
Notre Dame presents an interesting case for the committee. The computers (mine included) love the Irish. They have two tough games remaining (home to USC, at Pitt) and then a bunch of easy ones. I feel increasingly good that the Irish’s combination of name brand and good computer ratings will be enough to get them into the playoff at 10-2.
Georgia Tech and Virginia’s most likely path to the playoff is to follow SMU’s path from last year- go 11-1 in the regular season and then lose the ACC title game. Last year, an 11-2 SMU team that lost the ACC title game got in over a 9-3 Alabama team. The question is- would an 11-2 Georgia Tech or Virginia get in over a 9-3 SEC team this year?
Last year’s Big 12 was chaotic. Arizona State was 75/1 to make the playoff in late October before going on a crazy hot streak to win the leauge.
This year’s Big 12 looks much simpler. Texas Tech is the best team in the league and is about 10 points better than anyone else on a neutral field. The only possible at-large cases I see for a non-Texas Tech team is (a) BYU going 12-0 in the regular season or (b) someone picking off the Red Raiders in the regular season and then losing to them in the conference title game.
The league’s best bet for multiple bids is for someone to upset Texas Tech in the conference title game.
Utah, BYU and Cincinnati are all undefeated in conference- all three teams still have to play each other (starting with Utah at BYU this weekend). That will determine who faces Texas Tech in the conference title game.
The winner of the American is quite likely to make the playoff. I am giving Boise State and James Madison some chance in the event of chaos in the American. I think that an 11-2 Boise State team could get the playoff bid over say, an 11-2 East Carolina team that pulls an upset to win the American.
Within the American, I think it’s largely a two horse race between South Florida and Memphis. Those teams square off next weekend- the winner has a clear path to the conference title game and the loser has a decent chance as well. I was higher on Tulane earlier in the year, but they are well behind the Bulls and Tigers in my ratings now.
You might be surprised to not see undefeated UNLV here. My model is quite low on them (they are a 10 point underdog to Boise State this weekend) and they need to go undefeated to have any shot at the playoff.