Ravi Betzig 11/10/25 Ravi Betzig 11/10/25

College Football Playoff Picture- Week 11 2025

Week 11 brought some more clarity to the playoff picture. Several teams who were projected to make the field won tough games (Texas Tech, Georgia, Oregon). On the other hand, several teams who were hoping to play their way in fell out of at-large contention (Louisville, Virginia, Washington). That leaves us a smaller group of bubble teams.

Some Playoff Math

I’d like to start today’s post by doing a bit of math about how many spots are available in the playoff field. We have 12 playoff berths- 3 are allocated to the ACC, Big 12 and G5 conference champions (technically, we might get 2 G5 teams in this year instead of an ACC team, but that’s immaterial to this exercise). Thus, the most number of combined bids that the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame could get is 9.

Here are the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams with 2 or fewer losses. The conventional wisdom is that these teams all control their own destiny to make the playoff.

Big Ten: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, USC

SEC: Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Texas

Notre Dame

That’s 13 teams for 9 spots! Oh no! I thought all these teams controlled their own destiny? (I saw a tweet to this regard today- what will happen if Oklahoma, Texas and Vanderbilt all win out!)

Not so fast. Michigan, USC, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas all have at least one game left they’ll be underdogs in. Notre Dame and Oregon have significant tests remaining as well.

Using my model, here is the probability that each number of teams finishes at 10-2 or better from the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame:

>= 12: <1%

11: 3%

10: 12%

9: 29%

8: 34%

7: 18%

6: 4%

<= 5: <1%

Recall that if we get 9 such teams, that perfectly fills fill a playoff, along with the Big 12, ACC and G5 champs.

This means that we have about a 15% chance of “overfilling” the playoff (e.g. having more than 12 qualified teams), a 29% chance of “perfectly filling” the playoff and a 56% chance of “underfilling” the playoff.

I think that the discussion should thus mostly stem around what happens if we “underfill” the playoff. For example, suppose that Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame all hold serve, but the other teams lose somewhere. That would leave us with 1 spot to fill.

In an “underfill” case, we are going to have a big debate over who deserves the last bid(s). Some candidates, in rough order of strength of resume:

11-2 Georgia Tech that beats Georgia but loses the ACC title game

11-2 Texas Tech that loses the Big 12 title game

9-3 Texas or Oklahoma

10-2 Utah

11-2 BYU that loses the Big 12 title game

9-3 Georgia or Oklahoma (if they collapse down the stretch)

10-2 Miami

I’m not confident how the committee will rank those teams relative to each other. All I know is that it will be a fierce debate.

SEC

This is pretty simple. Texas A&M is a lock. Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama all need to lose twice to be in trouble. Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas all need to win out to be safe- and all have a game they’ll be an underdog in.

Oklahoma and Texas have a shot of getting in at 9-3, I would guess about 35% for Texas and 25% for Oklahoma.

Big Ten

Oregon should be fine with one more loss, unless we end up in the “overfilled” scenario from the top of the article. USC and Michigan will be looking very good if they win out, but still have to play Oregon and Ohio State, respectively.

ACC + Notre Dame

Notre Dame is in great shape if they win out- but if they lose to Pitt this weekend, it frees up another bid for someone random (Texas? Utah?).

I didn’t discuss it at length at the top of the article, but we have a real chance of a 0 bid ACC. Duke is 5-4, and has a 19% chance of winning

Big 12

Texas Tech is nearly a lock for the Big 12 title game- they have two easy games against UCF and West Virginia left.

The second spot in the Big 12 title game is more confusing. BYU and Cincinnati both control their own destiny, but have to play each other in two weeks. They have tough games elsewhere, and if they both trip up, Utah could take advantage. I also think a 10-2 Utah has a real chance at an at-large bid.

G5

These numbers sum to a bit higher than 100% to make up for the possibility of a 0 bid ACC. South Florida and North Texas both control their own destiny in the American- even if Tulane and East Carolina also finish with 1 loss. That’s because the American uses computer ratings for its tiebreakers (although only 3 of the 4 computers they use are currently publishing results…)

If USF or North Texas falter in the Ameriacn, Tulane, East Carolina and Memphis are next in line.

Ravi Betzig 11/8/25 Ravi Betzig 11/8/25

College Football Playoff Picture- Week 10 2025

The playoff committee’s rankings on Tuesday were telling. My three biggest takeaways were, in order of importance:

(1) They love Utah. I did not expect to see the Utes all the way up at 13th. If they win out, they have a good shot at an at-large bid at 10-2.

(2) They hate the ACC. Miami was a few spots lower than I expected, as was Georgia Tech. It will be hard for two ACC teams to get in- unless Georgia Tech beats Georgia.

(3) I was a bit surprised to see no G5 teams ranked.

Texas A&M (at Missouri): 100% with win, 93% with loss

Ole Miss (vs. The Citadel): 100% with win, 25% with loss

Alabama (vs. LSU): 94% with win, 62% with loss

Georgia (at Mississippi State): 94% with win, 60% with loss

Oklahoma (Bye)

Texas (Bye)

Vanderbilt (vs. Auburn): 33% with win, 2% with loss

Missouri (vs. Texas A&M): 12% with win, 0% with loss

Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia look good- although Alabama and Georgia would be in real trouble with losses this week. Both teams face games they could lose.

One of Oklahoma, Texas and Vanderbilt will probably play their way into the field. They still have to play Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, respectively.

Indiana (at Penn State): 100% with win, 99% with loss

Ohio State (at Purdue): 100% with win, 97% with loss

Oregon (at Iowa): 87% with win, 47% with loss

Washington (at Wisconsin): 19% with win, 0% with loss

Michigan (Bye)

USC (vs. Northwestern): 15% win win, 0% with loss

Iowa (vs. Oregon): 15% with win, 0% with loss.

Oregon losing to Iowa would cause a lot of chaos. However, the potential playoff team that no one is talking about is Washington. The Huskies should be double digit favorites in their next 3 games before a season-ending home game against Oregon.

Notre Dame (vs. Navy): 67% with win, 3% with loss

Georgia Tech (Bye)

Louisville (vs. California): 27% with win, 3% with loss

Duke (at Connecticut): 24% with win, 7% with loss

Miami (vs. Syracuse): 19% with win, 0% with loss

Virginia (vs. Wake Forest): 22% with win, 3% with loss

SMU (at Boston College): 11% with win, 0% with loss

Pittsburgh (Bye)

This is a quiet week in the ACC before we have some contenders play each other in the weeks to come- Virginia still has to play Duke, Pitt still has to play Georgia Tech, and SMU still has to play Louisville.

Duke is in an interesting situation- they have 2 out of conference losses and could reasonably pick up a third with a road trip against a tough UConn team. Duke is not a lock to make the playoff if they win the ACC, especially if they lose to UConn. Remember that the top 5 conference champions get autobids, so if 2 G5 champions are ahead of ACC champion Duke, the Blue Devils would get left out.

Texas Tech (vs. BYU): 80% with win, 17% with loss

BYU (at Texas Tech): 69% with win, 30% with loss

Utah (Bye)

Cincinnati (Bye)

TCU (vs. Iowa State): 5% with win, 0% with loss

The best chance for a 2-bid Big 12 is for Texas Tech to beat BYU, and then have BYU win out. That won’t be an easy task for BYU- they still have to play Cincinnati and TCU.

Texas Tech more or less clinches a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win this weekend.

These numbers are all from prior to the weeknight games- so South Florida’s odds are a bit better after their win over UTSA.

I’m still more bearish than the market on James Madison’s odds of making the playoff. I think they’d need some serious chaos in the American (say, South Florida picking up a third loss but still winning the league) to get in over the American champion.

Ravi Betzig 11/3/25 Ravi Betzig 11/3/25

First CFP Rankings Release- What to Watch For?

Tomorrow night is the first weekly rankings release from the college football playoff committee. Here are the things I’ll be on the lookout for that will inform my playoff model.

Ranking of G5 Teams

This is important for two reasons:

(1) Signaling of James Madison vs. American teams

The biggest unanswered question to me is how a committee would handle a 12-1 James Madison team compared to the American champ. My working theory is that a 1 loss American champ, or 2 loss Tulane, would get in over a 1 loss JMU. Right now the AP Poll has Memphis 22nd, JMU 27th, North Texas 30th and South Florida 31st. If JMU is ranked in the top 25, their playoff odds go up a good bit.

(2) Ranking of American teams relative to each other

If there’s a tie to determine who goes to the American title game (which is likely), the first tiebreaker is CFP rankings.

Considering how the committee values top-line wins, I wouldn’t be surprised if they diverge with the AP and put South Florida ahead of Memphis.

ACC- Where are Miami, Georgia Tech and Louisville Ranked?

Last year we saw mixed results as to whether a 2 loss ACC team would get into the playoff. 10-2 Miami did not make it, but 11-2 SMU (who picked up their second loss in the conference title game) did make it- the committee didn’t want to over-penalize them for losing the conference title game.

My guess is that this precedent holds in 2025. In my eyes, 10-2 Miami is a little worse than a coin flip to make it, and an 11-2 Louisville or Georgia Tech team that loses the ACC title game is probably in. A 10-2 Georgia Tech team that say, loses to Pitt but beats Georgia, could be in as well.

Let’s see where these teams stand relative to schools like Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Missouri. If they’re behind Texas/Oklahoma but ahead of Vanderbilt/Missouri, I view that as a neutral result. Anything outside of that would be materially positive or negative.

I view Virginia as having a pretty slim at-large chance at this point so I’m less interested in their ranking.

Big 12- Where are BYU and Utah Ranked?

I think that a 2 bid Big 12 is still unlikely- mostly because I think Texas Tech will kill BYU, and BYU will probably lose one more game somewhere down the stretch.

There is some chance a 10-2 BYU or Utah team could get a bid (a more likely outcome is that an 11-2 BYU team with 2 losses to Texas Tech gets in). If either team is ranked higher than their AP poll rank (8th and 17th, respectively), I would view that as a win.

Ravi Betzig 10/25/25 Ravi Betzig 10/25/25

College Football Playoff Picture- Week 8 2025

Big Picture Overview

Before we get into the probabilities for each team to make the playoff, I’d like to start today’s post with a high-level overview of the playoff race as we enter late October.

Right now, my simulations expect the following number of 10-2 teams or better from the P2 (and Notre Dame):

Big Ten: 3.4

SEC: 4.4

Notre Dame: 0.8

Let’s assume for now that all Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams at 10-2 or better get into the playoff- that’s 8.6 bids, leaving 3.4 for everyone else.

The ACC, Big 12 and G5 will get 1 team each. The ACC is about a coin flip to get a second team in (say, 11-2 Georgia Tech that loses the ACC title game, or 10-2 Miami) and the Big 12 and G5 are quite unlikely to get a second team in. So call that 3.5 bids for ACC/Big 12/G5.

That adds up to 12.1 bids. Perfect- we’ve filled out the playoff.

That’s just the expectation though, and if we get a lot more (or less) chaos than expected, things can change.

Suppose we have a lot of chalk, and we end up with the following teams at 10-2 or better:

SEC: Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt

Big Ten: Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon look very good- suppose Michigan upsets Ohio State at home (not impossible, they’d be around a touchdown underdog) and wins their other games

Let’s throw in 10-2 Notre Dame for good measure- they’re double digit favorites in every remaining game.

If we add in a 2 bid ACC (say Georgia Tech wins the conference, and Miami goes 11-1 but misses the ACC title game due to weird tiebreakers), things get weird fast. That’s 4 Big Ten teams, 5 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams, 1 Big 12 team, 1 G5 team and Notre Dame- 14 teams for 12 spots. Who gets left out in this scenario? My guess is Notre Dame and… Ole Miss? I really don’t know.

The reverse scenario is true. All it takes is some chaos here and there (a plucky Pitt team upsetting Notre Dame, Florida beating Ole Miss again, USC beating Oregon) and we’ll be letting 9-3 SEC teams into the playoff.

The point of this all exercise is to illustrate that the base case is that 10-2 Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams will get in, and 9-3 ones will not. However, neither of those rules is a guarantee, and if we get more or less chaos than expected, it can change things a lot.

SEC

Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia are in really good shape. They can all afford an upset somewhere down the stretch and still be in fine shape to make the playoff.

This week will determine who else stays in the SEC playoff hunt. Ole Miss plays Oklahoma and Vanderbilt plays Mizzou. Neither game is an eliminator, per se, but these games have among the biggest playoff leverage of any we’ll see all season. The winners will be >50% to make the playoff and the losers will be <50%.

Texas’ odds got worse despite the win over Kentucky- both because they looked awful and they fell in my ratings, and also because it hurt the chances of 9-3 Texas getting a bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State and Indiana are locks. Oregon has one loss and should be fine even with one more- unless the SEC produces five or six 10-2 teams.

After those three, the Big Ten has a bunch of two loss teams that all have a shot if the win out. USC and Michigan would be in very good shape at 10-2, as they would own wins over Oregon and Ohio State, respectively. I think the other Big Ten teams (Illinois, Nebraska etc.) would have a much tougher time getting a bid at 10-2.

ACC + Notre Dame

The ACC is the least clear of the major conferences. If you include Notre Dame, it is possible that it will have 1 team in the playoff, and it’s possible it will have 3- that has huge knock-on effects to the Big Ten and SEC.

I feel increasingly good about Notre Dame getting in at 10-2- I think the Irish’s stellar computer numbers will help. Their biggest problem is a potential head-to-head comparison with a Miami team that beat them.

Miami and Georgia Tech are both locks if they win out. Georgia Tech can afford one more loss, I don’t know if Miami can.

Big 12

Texas Tech is still the clubhouse leader despite their loss to Arizona State. The Red Raiders have two things going for them. First, they’re the best team in the conference and will be touchdown favorites against anyone else. Second, they’re in a pretty good situation when it comes to tiebreakers for the Big 12 title game.

I’d be very surprised if the Big 12 gets two bids. Those chances go up a bit if BYU is able to knock off Iowa State as an underdog today.

Group of Five

It is increasingly likely that the winner of the American gets the G5 playoff bid. I am entertaining some possibility that the American produces a weaker champion (say, 11-2 Tulane or 10-2 Navy) and a 12-1 James Madison, whose only loss would be to Louisville, gets in. Other than that, I think the winner of the American is getting in.

South Florida is in good shape. Like Texas Tech, they’re both (a) good and (b) are likely to hold the relevant tiebreakers to make the conference title game. They’ll probably play Tulane or North Texas for the conference title.

Ravi Betzig 10/21/25 Ravi Betzig 10/21/25

College Football Ratings Top 25- Week 8 2025

Some notes on this week’s top 25 from my model:

-The gap between Ohio State and the rest of the field is starting to grow a bit.

-Texas Tech is still far above the rest of the Big 12- Utah is the only other team in the top 25.

-Miami has fallen a good bit recently, they were dropping even before the loss to Louisville.

-LSU and USC remain pretty high despite having two losses and poor playoff cases.

-Ole Miss has fallen from 7th to 17th in two weeks, but is still in decent playoff position because they’re 6-1

-Auburn is continuing their annual tradition of being in the top 25 in the computers and losing every close game

Ravi Betzig 10/16/25 Ravi Betzig 10/16/25

College Football Playoff Picture- Week 7 2025

The SEC race was looking very cloudy a few weeks ago, but is starting to look a bit clearer now. Here’s a few things to know as we head into mid-October:

(1) All SEC teams with 2 losses or fewer should make the playoff. This was not a guarantee a few weeks ago- but there’s been enough chaos elsewhere (Penn State, Clemson and Florida State losing, the Big 12 eating itself etc.) that no 10-2 SEC team will get left out.

(2) Chances are rising for a 9-3 SEC team to make the playoff. I have a 9-3 SEC team getting a bid in approximately 60% of simulations right now. Texas, Texas A&M and Alabama are the teams with the best shot of getting a bid at 9-3.

(3) This week’s games will be telling. The winner of LSU/Vanderbilt will rise to about 40% to make the playoff while the loser will fall below 10%. The winner of Georgia/Ole Miss will rise to about 90% to make the playoff while the loser will fall to 50 or 60%.

(4) The most likely scenarios are that we get 4 or 5 SEC teams in the playoff.

The Big Ten is in a much weaker position than last year. Things worked out great for the Big Ten last year- they had 4 teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Indiana) make the playoff relatively comfortably, and no one else come close.

This year, the conference doesn’t look so lucky. Ohio State and Indiana both look like total locks. Oregon is looking good, but has three tough games against Iowa, USC and Washington and must win two of them.

After that, we have a handful of teams that could play their win into contention, but are far outside the field right now. I think USC is the best team of the bunch, but the Trojans have a tough road trip to Notre Dame this week. Washington and Michigan play what is functionally an elimination game this weekend.

It would take an epic collapse for Miami to miss the playoff. They did do it last year- I had them at 90% to make the playoff before their losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse- but I feel better about this year’s team.

Notre Dame presents an interesting case for the committee. The computers (mine included) love the Irish. They have two tough games remaining (home to USC, at Pitt) and then a bunch of easy ones. I feel increasingly good that the Irish’s combination of name brand and good computer ratings will be enough to get them into the playoff at 10-2.

Georgia Tech and Virginia’s most likely path to the playoff is to follow SMU’s path from last year- go 11-1 in the regular season and then lose the ACC title game. Last year, an 11-2 SMU team that lost the ACC title game got in over a 9-3 Alabama team. The question is- would an 11-2 Georgia Tech or Virginia get in over a 9-3 SEC team this year?

Last year’s Big 12 was chaotic. Arizona State was 75/1 to make the playoff in late October before going on a crazy hot streak to win the leauge.

This year’s Big 12 looks much simpler. Texas Tech is the best team in the league and is about 10 points better than anyone else on a neutral field. The only possible at-large cases I see for a non-Texas Tech team is (a) BYU going 12-0 in the regular season or (b) someone picking off the Red Raiders in the regular season and then losing to them in the conference title game.

The league’s best bet for multiple bids is for someone to upset Texas Tech in the conference title game.

Utah, BYU and Cincinnati are all undefeated in conference- all three teams still have to play each other (starting with Utah at BYU this weekend). That will determine who faces Texas Tech in the conference title game.

The winner of the American is quite likely to make the playoff. I am giving Boise State and James Madison some chance in the event of chaos in the American. I think that an 11-2 Boise State team could get the playoff bid over say, an 11-2 East Carolina team that pulls an upset to win the American.

Within the American, I think it’s largely a two horse race between South Florida and Memphis. Those teams square off next weekend- the winner has a clear path to the conference title game and the loser has a decent chance as well. I was higher on Tulane earlier in the year, but they are well behind the Bulls and Tigers in my ratings now.

You might be surprised to not see undefeated UNLV here. My model is quite low on them (they are a 10 point underdog to Boise State this weekend) and they need to go undefeated to have any shot at the playoff.

Ravi Betzig 10/16/25 Ravi Betzig 10/16/25

College Football Ratings Top 25- Week 7 2025

It’s not just my computer model that loves Notre Dame- I’m seeing the Irish pop up in the top 5 of many models. They essentially have a 2 game season remaining- home to USC this week and at Pitt in a few weeks. They’ll be three touchdown favorites in every other game.

Ravi Betzig 10/1/25 Ravi Betzig 10/1/25

College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 5 2025

A busy week in college football leads to lots of changes in this week’s updates. Oregon and Ole Miss took big steps towards a playoff bid while LSU and Penn State’s chances fell.

I’m dividing this post into two sections- first, we’ll give my model’s current odds for each of the main contenders to make the playoff. Second, we’ll go through and discuss what sorts of resumes will and won’t make the playoff

Current Odds

Some teams that I thought were worth highlighting this week:

Miami: I had Miami at 80% to make the playoff last year at one point and they collapsed down the stretch to miss the field. I’m long Miami, so let’s hope for better this year.

Notre Dame: My model loves the Irish and makes them a >14 point favorite in every remaining game except USC. I do think it’s more likely than not that a 10-2 Notre Dame team with 2 close losses to good teams makes the field.

Texas: I already have a good bit of exposure on Texas to miss the playoff, but wouldn’t mind putting on more. The loss to Ohio State puts them behind the 8 ball- I don’t think they’re getting in at 9-3.

Memphis: The G5 playoff race is extremely bunched up with Memphis, USF, James Madison and Boise State all between 14 and 18%, but the Tigers are my favorite for now.

Resume Review

I’ve received a lot of questions along the lines of “will a 10-2 Michigan team make the playoff”? or “how many SEC teams will finish at 10-2?”. Every week I simulate the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Here are some results from my simulator that might help answer these questions.

Note that all records in these simulations are prior to conference title games. I.e. suppose Georgia Tech goes 11-1 in the regular season and then loses the ACC title game to fall to 11-2- they are counted as a 1 loss team here, not a 2 loss team.

We’re pretty likely to see the following teams in the playoff:

4 SEC teams- SEC champion, SEC championship game loser, 2 other 10-2 teams

3 Big Ten teams- Big Ten champion, Big Ten championship game loser, 1 other 11-1/10-2 team

ACC champion, Big 12 champion, best G5 champion

That leaves us with 2 spots left for the following sorts of teams, ranked roughly in order from best resume to worst resume:

(1) Another 10-2 SEC team, should one exist

(2) A team that goes 11-1 and then loses the ACC or Big 12 title game (e.g. 2024 SMU)

(3) 10-2 Notre Dame

(4) Another 10-2 Big Ten team, should one exist

(5) A 9-3 SEC team with a particularly strong resume (e.g. Oklahoma, Alabama)

(6) 10-2 ACC and Big 12 teams

The short version of the story is as follows:

For SEC teams, 10 wins will be enough. There are select teams with particularly hard schedules who will have a chance with 9 wins, but I wouldn’t count on it.

For Big Ten teams, 11 wins will be enough. 10 wins will probably be enough, but for weaker resumes (Indiana, maybe Penn State and Michigan), it could be shaky.

For ACC teams: 11 wins will be enough if you have a marquee win (e.g. Florida State over Alabama). It might be enough even if you don’t.

For Big 12 teams: 11 wins is probably enough, but I’m not sure.

For Notre Dame: 10 wins might be enough. It’ll probably be really close.

Ravi Betzig 10/1/25 Ravi Betzig 10/1/25

College Football Ratings- Week 5 2025

Some teams worth noting this week:

Notre Dame- My model loves them after they demolished Arkansas on the road. Their two losses were both close and could’ve gone either way.

Miami- I’m definitely higher on the Hurricanes than most other computers who have them around 10th. Their talent score is very high in my model.

Georgia- I just don’t think they’re that good. The back seven of their defense was exposed against Alabama.

Auburn- Hugh Freeze is once again doing the thing where he has a good team and loses every close game.

Ravi Betzig 9/21/25 Ravi Betzig 9/21/25

College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 4

This list looks quite a bit different at the top than it did a few weeks ago. A few teams I’d like to highlight:

Ole Miss has looked great with backup QB Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels have a tough few weeks (LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma) and then a November where they’ll be double digit favorites in every game.

Texas Tech shares a lot of similarities with Ole Miss- both looked great with backup QBs, and both have hard Octobers followed by manageable Novembers. The Red Raiders have enough talent in the trenches to simply bully most of the teams on their schedule.

Indiana shot up my ratings after their win over Illinois. Their early win over Old Dominion also looks quite good now. The Hoosiers have two road trips to Oregon and Penn State that will define their season.

Michigan’s playoff odds looked dead two weeks ago. An impressive win against Nebraska (that was not as close as the score indicated) and Oklahoma’s continued success have both been great for the Wolverines. Their two game stretch against USC and Washington will define the season.

A lot of Group of Five teams are represented here. The race for the G5 playoff spot remains wide open with no team above 20% to make it. The winner of the American will likely make the playoff, but the league race is so wide-open there it’s hard to pick a favorite.

Ravi Betzig 9/18/25 Ravi Betzig 9/18/25

College Football Ratings- Week 3 2025

Some teams worth noting here:

Alabama- I’m far from the only computer system that still has the Tide #1 in the SEC. They have demolished two bad teams since their opening loss and their talent level is so high. We’ll learn more after they play Georgia in Week 5.

Notre Dame- Two very close losses to two very good teams. The Irish have about a 40% chance of winning out and entering the playoff conversation at 10-2.

Auburn- I am higher on them than everyone else. Most computers have them in the teens, I have them 12th.

Vanderbilt- This is their highest ranking in my model since I debuted my model back in 2011.

The top of the SEC remains extremely clumped together. It’s going to be a mess of 6-2 and 5-3 teams in the conference standings at the end of the year. The middle of the pack is good enough to pick off several of the top teams as well. Get ready for some chaos.

It’s an interesting week in the Big Ten. We’ll learn a lot about the second tier of the conference when Michigan travels to Nebraska and Illinois travels to Indiana. The winners of those games will join USC in the second tier of the conference, far behind the top tier of Ohio State/Penn State/Oregon.

It’s clearly Miami’s conference to lose. (That probably means they’ll find a way to lose it, considering the last 25 years of their program). Don’t sleep on NC State- I don’t hear anyone discussing them, but the Wolfpack have a good QB in CJ Bailey and a smattering of talent elsewhere.

We get Texas Tech @ Utah and Arizona State @ Baylor this week, and we get TCU @ Arizona State next week. Those three games will tell us a ton about the Big 12 race. My model does not treat Iowa State as a serious contender despite being ranked in the top 25 of the AP Poll.

At the bottom of the league, Oklahoma State is far below everyone else. Kansas State has fallen into the bottom three after a disastrous start to the season.

Ravi Betzig 9/18/25 Ravi Betzig 9/18/25

College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 3

There’s some pretty big disagreements from the market here. I’m lower than the consensus on Oregon, LSU and Texas. I’m higher than the consensus on Texas Tech, TCU and Nebraska.

My model thinks Notre Dame is very likely to make the playoff if they go 10-2 and gives them some chance of making the playoff at 9-3. I personally disagree. This is my first season of my 12-team playoff model and there are a few kinks I want to work out on the back end.

There are likely multiple playoff teams still in this group. If I had to personally pick two teams from this group to make the playoff, I would go with Florida State (their upside is so high given their raw talent) and Old Dominion as a G5 wildcard.

Ravi Betzig 9/7/25 Ravi Betzig 9/7/25

College Football Rankings- Week 2

Yes, Alabama is third. I can hear the complaints already. There are two reasons for this. First, they absolutely eviscerated ULM over the weekend. Other teams are also taking big jumps after killing bad teams (Oregon, Arkansas, USC). I think the general public underrates how much signal can be taken from a result like that. Second, teams 2-15 are bunched pretty close together. The Tide would be only a touchdown favorite against 15th ranked Tennessee on a neutral field.

I have no idea what is going to happen in the SEC. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. The conference has a strange mix of no truly elite teams (although someone will likely separate themselves from the pack at some point) and many good ones. This is going to a be a rock fight.

Unlike the SEC, the top few teams are far ahead of everyone else here. The big risers this week are USC, who has killed two bad teams, and Illinois, who knocked off Duke on the road. On the other hand, Michigan nearly dropped out of the top 25 and UCLA looks awful.

There’s a 1/3 chance Clemson wins the ACC, a 1/3 chance Miami does, and a 1/3 chance someone else does. I’m still a bit more bullish on Florida State than my model and would probably put them third.

My model has not caught up to how bad Stanford is. They should be at the bottom of the conference.

I am all aboard the TCU bandwagon. Everyone is talking about how bad UNC looked in week 1 and no one is talking about how good TCU looked. Texas Tech and Utah are popular picks to win the league right now as well, there’s no surprise in the 2 and 3 spots.

Oklahoma State is my only power conference team outside the top 100. They should probably be outside the top 1000.

The importance of the Notre Dame/Texas A&M game cannot be understated. If the Irish win, they’re going to be on a pretty good course to the playoff. If they lose, they have to win out at a minimum.

South Florida is now the clear favorite to win the conference. Their schedule is manageable- they avoid Tulane in conference play. After the Miami game this week, they don’t play a team in my top 90 until October 25th.

Nearly every team in the Mountain West has been a disappointment. Perhaps the one exception is Fresno State, who is off to a strong 2-0 start. Boise State is still a bit ahead of the pack.

The East division will come down to James Madison and Old Dominion. The West division could go any number of ways- I bet on Troy in the preseason and will be hoping they can pull it out.

My model does not properly understand the Marshall/Southern Miss situation and is too high on the former and too low on the latter.

Ohio and Toledo both impressed in week 2 and are the clear class of the league. It’s a shame both teams lost close games in week 1, as they’d have outside playoff chances otherwise.

Liberty lost to Jax State last week which sent the league race into turmoil. My model is still crazy low on Western Kentucky, but otherwise this roughly makes sense.

Ravi Betzig 9/7/25 Ravi Betzig 9/7/25

College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 2

The top-ranked SEC teams (LSU, Georgia, Texas) are all a good bit lower here than you’d expect. The middle class of the SEC is incredibly strong, and my model thinks that there’s no true standout team at the top. That means a huge clump of teams are projected in the 7-9 win range. Inevitably some SEC teams will emerge to go 10-2 or better, but identifying who they are right now is tough.

Teams that I am higher on that consensus include TCU, South Florida and Georgia Tech. I already have a significant number of bets on all of these teams.

There are enough teams with a chance at the playoff that I figured I should also show the teams that are 26-50 in playoff odds. This is an interesting mix of teams that have taken early losses (Baylor, Arizona State, Michigan) as well as some random power conference teams. It’s likely that at least one, probably two, of these teams will end up making the playoff.

Ravi Betzig 8/27/25 Ravi Betzig 8/27/25

2025 Preseason 1-136 Rankings

Throughout my season preview content, I’ve given my model’s thoughts on each of the 136 FBS teams. However, in the process of creating my model, I often come to different conclusions about teams than the numbers do. For example, there are some things I think the model is way too low on (Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, Iowa etc.) and others it is way too high on (Maryland, Cincinnati, UCF etc.).

I think it is a valuable exercise to go through and rank all teams from 1-136 in the preseason based on my gut intuition. At the end of the season, I will compare this with my model’s preseason 1-136 and see who won.

Unfortunately, I ran out of time before the season started and don’t have time to write a bit about each of the 136 FBS teams. I wrote a blurb for each of the P4 teams that you can find in the preseason conference previews. Regardless, without further ado, here is my personal 1-136, just based off of my personal read of each team.

Ravi Betzig 8/27/25 Ravi Betzig 8/27/25

2025 G5 Conference Previews

I ran out of time before the season started to write up conference previews for the non-P4 leagues. However, I still want to document my model’s preseason thoughts on each team. Below you can find my preseason forecasts for all teams outside the P4 leagues.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 Big 12 Preview

I intended to write longer conference previews this season but ran out of time before the season started. Instead, I’ll just be sharing some key numbers from my model, as well as a note or two about each team.

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Talent Score- My model’s estimate of the total talent on the roster. 0 is FBS average. Note that this weighs high school recruiting higher and portal talent lower than you might expect, but I have found this to be most predictive in the long run.

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Arizona State- My clear conference favorite. The Sam Leavitt/Jordyn Tyson duo is one of the best QB/WR tandems in the sport. Dillingham has done an excellent job and his use of the portal has been way ahead of the curve.

Texas Tech- They portaled in enough, especially on the lines, to really raise the floor. I’m still not convinced about the ceiling, especially with Behren Morton back at QB. The schedule fell favorably and I think a conference title is possible.

Baylor- Sawyer Robertson is a stud. The rushing game will be good as well. I trust Dave Aranda to figure it out on defense with some subpar pieces. That all adds up to a Big 12 contender. Early games against Auburn and SMU are huge.

Kansas State- I still believe in Avery Johnson. Dylan Edwards is one of the best running backs in the country. They were unlucky last year and deserved to be in the conference title game.

TCU- There were plenty of bidders for Josh Hoover. The fact that TCU held on to them shows what weight class they’re in, money-wise. I think the ceiling is pretty high here given the quality of athlete in the WR and DB rooms.

Colorado- They’re clearly going to regress without Shedeur and Travis. Deion’s prep recruiting has been good enough that it won’t be as big a dropoff as you’d expect. Kaidon Salter is really exciting.

Cincinnati- I am more bearish than my model. This will be the best team of Satterfield’s tenure, but that’s not saying much. Somehow the Luke Fickell/Cincinnati divorce has been a disaster for both parties.

Utah- I am more bullish than my model, it does not properly account for how injured Utah was last year. Devon Dampier is as dynamic a playmaker as you’ll find. Rumor is it’s Kyle Whittingham’s last year- can he go out with a bang?

BYU- Even without Retzlaff’s departure, it was going to be a step back this year from a win/loss perspective. The newfound NIL money raises the floor, but last year’s record was deceiving. I think Bachmeier will develop into a good QB, but it will take a bit.

Kansas- Jalon Daniels’ health is the million dollar question. This was a borderline top 10 team in the country down the strech. The Border War returns this year and will set the tone for the season.

Iowa State- Not sure what all the excitement is about- they were worse than their record last year. Rocco Becht is overrated as well. I’d rather bet on the Big 12 teams with explosive athletes at QB.

UCF- I’m more bearish than my model. Malzahn’s recruiting fell off a cliff at the end and the roster is not up to snuff in the Big 12. Cam Fancher winning the QB battle is a red flag- we know he’s mid, so it means their options must suck.

Houston- Got better as the year went along last year. I love the addition of Connor Weigman in the portal. There are few coaches I have more faith in than Willie Fritz- he will make them a contender in 2026.

Arizona- I cannot believe how poorly last year went. The 2023 version of Noah Fifita has got to be in there somewhere- can they find him? The talent level elsewhere does not inspire confidence- Tetairoa McMillan isn’t walking through that door.

West Virginia- Rich Rod turned water into wine at Jax State. He’ll get it rolling again here at some point, but it probably won’t be this year. The roster was totally revamped in the portal and it might take them a bit to gel.
Oklahoma State- The mishandling of the Ollie Gordon situation should be a federal crime. Gundy was publicly flogged in the offseason and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him walk out at the end of the year.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 ACC Preview

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Clemson- A legitimate national title contender for the first time since 2020. Klubnik is one of the best QBs in the sport. Their D-line is the best in the sport and it’s not close. Dabo is finally using the portal, at least a little bit.

Miami- I’m a lot more bearish than my model. The recruiting stars are clearly there, but I don’t trust either Cristobal or Beck. It’s hard to imagine them getting better after losing Cam Ward.

Louisville- I’m more bullish than my model. I love the skill position talent here, Isaac Brown and Caullin Lacy are stars. They’ve lost a ton of close games in recent years and that is bound to turn around eventually. Early schedule is light.

Georgia Tech- Best I’ve felt about the Yellow Jackets since Paul Johnson was in charge. Brent Key is an offensive lineman at heart and you can tell from his team. If Haynes King can stay healthy, this is a dark horse playoff contender.

Virginia Tech- They’ve lost a million close games. That should turn around at some point- but if it doesn’t, Brent Pry is out of a job. It’s been a decade since Beamer and VT is in danger of permanent irrelevance.

NC State- A better team than you’d expect, that won’t challenge for the ACC because they’ll lose a stupid game or two somewhere. Losing KC Concepcion shows they don’t have the money to compete with the big boys.

SMU- My model hates them because there is no track record of teams with so much bad recent history sustaining success. They better hope they get the Kevin Jennings we saw most of the season, and not the one we saw against Penn State.

Boston College- They continue to be the most anonymous team in the P4. Not good enough to contend for anything, but they won’t embarrass you either.

Duke- I’m more bullish than my model, because I don’t think it understands how good Mensah is. Last year’s record was smoke and mirrors, but I am extremely bullish on the long term forecast here under Manny Diaz.

North Carolina- Belichick will certainly have some talent at his disposal. It’s a weird combination of pieces, a lot of them through the portal. Neither 3 wins nor 9 wins would shock me.

Florida State- It’s hard to argue last year was a blip given how bad 2017-2021 was. I am shocked they couldn’t do better at QB than Castellanos in the portal, he’s got some talent but is a turnover machine.

Pittsburgh- I’m more bullish than my model thanks to what looks like a vintage Narduzzi defense. This is going to be an Iowa-style team that bludgeons you to death.

Stanford- My model loves Stanford this year, many others have them near the bottom of the P4. The talent is not that bad with a peppering of four stars throughout the roster. Frank Reich is a good coach and will get the most out of them.

Syracuse- A clear step back from last year, but the long term outlook is very strong. They face an absolutely brutal schedule, one of the toughest in the country. I think Steve Angeli was a great QB pickup in the portal.

California- Completely picked apart in the portal. The QB situation is intriguing though- two guys with a lot of recruiting stars are competing for the job. Looks like the last year for Wilcox before Ron Rivera installs his guy.

Virginia- One of the least talented rosters in the P4. The good news is the schedule couldn’t be easier. I like Chandler Morris as a bridge QB. If they don’t bowl this year, it’s probably curtains for Tony Elliott.
Wake Forest- I like the Jake Dickert hire, but year 1 will be tough. Bringing some players from Wazzu will smooth the transition. It’s comical that Robby Ashford is the starting QB for a P4 program.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 Big Ten Preview

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Ohio State- There is so much high end talent on this roster that I have to keep them number one. Jeremiah Smith is the best offensive player in the country and Caleb Downs is the best defensive player.

Penn State- Highest floor team in the country. Would be shocked if they are not top 8 or so. The best RB room in the country and some of the best lines as well. Still waiting for them to beat one of the bluebloods, or prove that Drew Allar has an extra gear.

Oregon- Dante Moore sucked at UCLA, but he was playing behind an awful offensive line. My model is not a fan of them, due to inexperience at QB and a relatively portal-heavy strategy compared to the other big boys.

Michigan- If Underwood is everything he’s cracked up to be, this is a playoff team. He is still a true freshman though and I expect early growing pains in the Oklahoma game. This defense with Wink at the helm should stymie even the best offenses.

Indiana- They won’t win 11 games again, but they’re not crashing down to earth either. I saw a lot of Mendoza last year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a first round pick in April. The fact that Indiana could afford him shows they’re willing to splash the cash.

Minnesota- The classic Big Ten West team that will play physical and run the ball well. The ceiling is capped but the floor is high as well. No one remembers how good they were last year because they lost close games.

Illinois- It’s a complete farce that they’re 12th in the AP Poll. This was a mediocre team last year that lucked their way into 10 wins. Will probably be betting against them early and often.

Nebraska- Raiola should take a step forward in year 2. They’re not where they want to be, but Matt Rhule has taken them out of the depths they had fallen to. Schedule is light- will be significant favorites in all games except Michigan until Halloween.

USC- I disagree with my model here- I’m more bullish. Skill position talent is top 10 in the country. The big question- is Maiava the QB because Lincoln Riley developed him, or because USC was too broke to afford anyone else?

Rutgers- No one does it quite like Schiano. They are a physical team with a great O-line, and no one wants to play them. The QB situation is bleak, but they’ll still find 6 wins.

Iowa- Maybe the biggest disagreement between my gut and my model in the whole country. A mobile QB who lit it up at the FCS level behind an Iowa offensive line? Sign me up.

Wisconsin- Hardest schedule in the country and it’s not close. They strayed far from their roots and paid the price. Now they don’t have the Wisconsin-style roster you’d expect.

Michigan State- A pretty high variance team- it will depend a lot on Aidan Chiles. He’s as boom-or-bust as it gets. They have good pieces here and there but the overall talent level is underwhelming. It’s a coin toss as to whether they get to a bowl.

Washington- Demond Williams is an exciting young QB, but they lose a lot elsewhere. Nearly all the contributors from the 2023 squad are gone and the recent recruiting has been a lot worse than you’d expect.

UCLA- The lack of talent outside Nico is embarrassing. They are in Los Angeles and are near the bottom of the conference in recent recruiting. Feels like Lynn is a bridge coach until they can make a proper Big Ten hire.

Maryland- This is going to be pretty rough- I’m even more bearish than my model. Not really sure what the plan is here long-term, this program has been floating in the ether since moving to the conference.

Northwestern- Still trying to figure out what they are in the post-Pat Fitzgerald world. I’m excited about Preston Stone at QB but he doesn’t have much to work with.

Purdue- They were apocalyptically bad last year. One of the worst power conference teams of the decade. They’ll be better this year, but it would be testing the laws of physics to be worse.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 SEC Preview

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Alabama- My preseason SEC favorite, even if others disagree. Still one of the most talented teams in the sport thanks to pulling in top 5 classes for many years in a row. My model is excited about Ty Simpson, but more excited about Ryan Williams.

Texas A&M- One of my big surprise teams for the year. Mike Elko is a fantastic coach and has a top ten roster in the country. Marcel Reed is in year two and behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Georgia- I expect them to be closer to 2024 Georgia than 2021-2023 Georgia. Somewhat amazed a team with as many resources as UGA has ended up with such a poor QB situation- I expect Gunner Stockton to be a bottom half of the SEC QB.

Oklahoma- Along with A&M, my other big surprise team in the SEC. This is going to be a vintage Brent Venables defense and I love the addition of John Mateer at QB. Schedule is brutal- they could be a top 10 team by quality and go 8-4.

Texas- My hottest preseason take is hating Texas. The Longhorns lose so much outside of the QB position, a dozen draft picks are gone. Arch will be very good, but he’s not the surefire lock for “best QB in the sport” that everyone thinks.

Auburn- They went 5-7 despite finishing 14th in my model last year. Surely they can’t lose every close game again. One of the best WR corps in the nation. A darkhorse playoff pick.

LSU- I like them, but not at the top 5 or top 8 level that some other people seem to. A lot of variance here- if Nussmeier is what he’s cracked up to be, they’re a playoff team. The September schedule is brutal- a slow start could see the team quit on Brian Kelly.

Florida- They’re a very good team but the schedule is brutal. DJ Lagway is a clear top 5 QB in the country, and both lines will be excellent. With the right breaks, they could be in the playoff.

Tennessee- Not a fan this year. It’s not just that they lost Nico, this team was not particularly good last year and was lucky to go 10-2. One of the easiest schedules in the SEC will keep them higher in the standings than they should be.

South Carolina- I love LaNorris Sellers. The schedule is absolutely brutal though- you can tell from the fact I have them 18th but projected for only 6.9 wins. They will be about as good as last year and finish with fewer wins.

Ole Miss- Ole Miss to miss the playoff at -175 felt like highway robbery. Kiffin was a year ahead of his peers on the portal, but that advantage is now gone. With Jaxson Dart gone, this team will regress. They missed their window.

Arkansas- Scheduling Memphis and Notre Dame when you already play 8 SEC games makes no sense to me. It’s almost like they want to give Pittman no chance. They’ll beat someone they shouldn’t and still go 6-6.

Missouri- Everyone knows they were worse than their record last year. Still, 21 years in two wins is extremely impressive given their resources relative to the rest of the league. Not a fan of the QB situation.

Kentucky- Calzada intrigues me at QB. But it does seem things are turning for the worse at Kentucky- it hasn’t been the same since Stoops’ dalliance with the Texas A&M job.

Mississippi State- Pretty brutal that they lost Van Buren (just to be a backup at LSU) after he showed promise down the stretch last year. This was the clear worst team in the conference last year, and they’ll get better but still likely finish last.