Final 2025 College Football Bracketology
We’re an hour away from the Selection Show, as I type this. Last year, I nailed the exact 12 team bracket- not just what teams made the field, but also all the exact seeds, matchups and locations. Hopefully I can keep the hot streak going this year.
Without further ado, here is my projection for the 12 team bracket:
1 Indiana vs. (9 Notre Dame @ 8 Oklahoma)- Rose Bowl
2 Georgia vs. (10 Alabama @ 7 Notre Dame)- Sugar Bowl
3 Ohio State vs. (11 Tulane @ 6 Ole Miss) - Orange Bowl
4 Texas Tech vs. (12 James Madison @ 5 Oregon)- Cotton Bowl
Here’s how I see the breakdown of probabilities for various things:
Making the playoff (at-large): Notre Dame 90%, Alabama 80%, Miami 30%
Making the playoff (auto-bid): James Madison 95%, Duke 5%
1 seed: Indiana 100%
2 seed: Georgia 90%, Ohio State 10%
3 seed: Ohio State 80%, Georgia 10%, Texas Tech 10%
4 seed: Texas Tech 90%, Ohio State 10%
5 seed: Oregon 100%
6 seed: Ole Miss 85%, Texas A&M 15%
7 seed: Texas A&M 85%, Ole Miss 15%
8 seed: Oklahoma 95%, Notre Dame 5%
9 seed: Notre Dame 65%, Miami 25%, Oklahoma 5%, Alabama 5%
10 seed: Alabama 75%, Notre Dame 20%, Miami 5%
11 seed: Tulane 100%
12 seed: James Madison 95%, Duke 5%
College Football Playoff Picture- Week 13 2025
Intro
Once again, the chalk held last week. That leaves us in a pretty interesting situation headed into Rivalry Week. If all the favorites win, the playoff will be very simple- the current top 10 of the playoff rankings get in, plus the ACC and American champions.
If we have at least one upset, things change. Suppose Michigan beats Ohio State- who gets the last spot between them and Notre Dame? Suppose all the favorites win, except Auburn beats Alabama. Who gets the last spot in the field- Vanderbilt? Miami? Utah? My guess is Vanderbilt, but we’ll see.
Here’s my expected ranking of potential at-large playoff resumes, along with my expected chance that that resume makes it into the field, if it happens. To be clear- not all of these things will happen. For example, this should be read as “if a 10-2 Vanderbilt team ends up happening, they’d have a 40% chance of getting in the playoff, and they’d be below these other teams in the pecking order”
Indiana, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Georgia: 100%
10-2 Alabama: 100%
11-1 Ole Miss: 100%
11-1 Oregon: 100%
10-2 Oklahoma: 100%
10-2 Michigan: 90%
10-2 Notre Dame: 87%
10-2 Ole Miss: 80%
11-2 Texas Tech (Big 12 title game loser): 70%
10-2 Oregon: 60%
10-2 Vanderbilt: 40%
10-2 Miami: 20%
10-2 Utah: 10%
10-2 Texas Tech (loses to West Virginia): 9%
11-2 BYU (Big 12 title game loser): 8%
9-3 Texas: 7%
9-3 Alabama: 5%
9-3 Oklahoma: 3%
There’s some uncertainty in these rankings for me- particularly around 10-2 Ole Miss, 11-2 Texas Tech and 10-2 Oregon. But other than that, I feel pretty decent about this stack rank.
SEC
Georgia and Texas A&M are in no matter what.
Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Alabama are all in with a win.
As I detail above, I think Ole Miss is going to be OK even with a loss, but I’m not certain- the market doesn’t agree with me, Ole Miss’ odds to make the playoff have tumbled -2000 to -400 without playing a game. That line implies that Ole Miss is probably out if they lose to Mississippi State- which I’d be pretty surprised by.
Oklahoma and Alabama are almost certainly out with a loss. If a lot of chaos happens, they could find their way in.
Vanderbilt is maybe the most interesting team left on the board to me. They obviously need to beat Tennessee- but I am very unsure of whether that would be enough for them. They should be rooting for LSU, Auburn and Ohio State.
Texas has a chance if they beat Texas A&M and get a lot of help elsewhere.
Big Ten
Indiana and Ohio State are fine no matter what.
Oregon is in with a win, and will be in the conversation for a bye. I think Oregon is OK with a loss- but I only give them a 60% shot at a bid. They’re certainly rooting for Ohio State.
Enough chalk has held that I don’t think Michigan is a stone cold lock even if they beat Ohio State. I think they’re probably fine- but one upset somewhere else would help them feel better.
ACC + Notre Dame
The worst case scenario for Notre Dame is that Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon and Michigan all win. I think Notre Dame is on the outside looking in in that scenario- but I’m not certain.
SMU or Virginia will probably win the ACC- but Miami, Pitt and Georgia Tech have a chance. Duke also has a chance, but isn’t seen here, because in the 4% or so chance they win the ACC, they wouldn’t get in to the playoff (James Madison would in their place).
Miami is an interesting at-large case. It was good for the ‘Canes that they jumped Utah this week. The most likely outcome is that they beat Pitt but don’t make the ACC title game. If that happens, they’re going to need help from somewhere (Auburn? LSU?) and maybe two pieces of help.
Big 12
Last week was really bad for Utah. Their chance to win the Big 12 mostly evaporated when BYU beat Cincinnati. Their at-large chance mostly evaporated when they got jumped by Miami. They still have a faint at-large chance, but they need a lot of things to go right.
I remain bearish on Texas Tech’s at-large chances if they pick up a loss, at least relative to the market. Texas Tech to miss playoff is +2200 now, which I quite like- I think that in the logjam scenario where Oklahoma/Alabama/Ole Miss/Oregon all win, an 11-2 Texas Tech is conceivably left out.
BYU’s at-large chance are nil but they control their own destiny in the Big 12. Arizona State is on here because they control their own destiny in the Big 12, but they need quite a lot of help.
Group of Five
North Texas and Tulane will square off for the American title game if they both win this weekend. If either lose, that opens up the door for Navy (not pictured here, since they’d have to win two games they’d be a significant underdog in, and get help), or South Florida, in the American.
James Madison has two routes in. In either route, they have to win out, but they’ll probably do that. First, they can have both North Texas and Tulane slip up. Second, they can have Duke win the ACC. Both are unlikely, but not impossible.
Race for the Byes
Most of the discussion of the playoff has focused on who’s getting in. It’s also worth discussing who is going to get byes, and who is going to host.
I think that if Indiana and Ohio State win this weekend, they are locks for byes no matter what happens in the Big Ten title game. That would leave 2 spots- one for the SEC winner, and the other is up for grabs. Some contenders include:
-The SEC title game loser, especially if that team is a previously undefeated Texas A&M
-Texas A&M, who lost to Texas and missed the SEC title game
-Georgia, if they beat Georgia Tech but fail to make the SEC title game.
-Texas Tech, if they win out
-Oregon, if they beat Washington
I’d put my money on Georgia, if I had to pick. But I’m really not certain.
Race to Host
Four teams will get byes, and the next four teams in the rankings will host playoff games. This is tougher to prognosticate, because teams can slip out of this range both by moving into the hosting group, and also by moving into the 9-12 group where they’d have to go on the road.
If I had to pick the team most likely to finish in the 5-8 range that would lead to hosting a playoff game, it would be Ole Miss (assuming they win this weekend). Oregon and Georgia will be in the conversation here as well. If chalk holds, the last hosting spot will be between Alabama, Oklahoma and Notre Dame- I think it would go to Oklahoma.
Most Likely Playoff
If we add it all together, I think that the most likely playoff bracket. This assumes that the projected favorite wins every single game over the rest of the season.
1 Ohio State vs. 8 Oklahoma/9 Notre Dame- Rose Bowl
2 Texas A&M vs. 7 Ole Miss/10 Alabama- Sugar Bowl
3 Indiana vs. 6 Oregon/11 SMU- Cotton Bowl
4 Georgia vs. 5 Texas Tech/12 North Texas- Orange Bowl
I don’t love some of these matchups. I’d rather not see an Alabama/Ole Miss conference matchup in the first round. But it might be unavoidable.
College Football Playoff Picture- Week 12 2025
Last week continued the trend of chalk in the playoff race. Lots of teams who could have lost (Notre Dame, Virginia, Ole Miss etc.) won. However, it was the week before Thanksgiving last year when chaos was unleashed (Ole Miss lost to Florida, Alabama lost to Oklahoma), so there is still time for shakeups in the race.
If you read my column last week, you might recall I talked about the probability of “overfilling” the playoff (more quality resumes than spots) vs. “underfilling” the playoff (fewer quality resumes than spots). The “overfilling” risk definitely went up a good bit this past week, but let’s put some hard numbers on it.
I define a “quality resume” as a Big Ten/Notre Dame/SEC team with 2 or fewer regular season losses, and an ACC/Big 12 team with 1 or fewer regular season losses.
As a reminder, we reserve 5 spots for conference champions which leave us with 7 at-large bids. If we assume that Ohio State and Texas A&M win the Big Ten and SEC, respectively, that leaves us with the following potential teams as “quality resumes”.
Big Ten: Indiana, Oregon, USC, Michigan
SEC: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
Other: Notre Dame
Big 12: Texas Tech (if they lose conference title game)
ACC: Georgia Tech (if they beat UGA and lose conference title game)
(Note that I don’t include 10-2 Utah or 10-2 Miami as a “quality resume”).
Here’s the distribution of the number of potential quality resumes needing at-large bids (recall that we have 7 at-large bids to allocate):
>=10: 0.3%
9: 4.9%
8: 20.9%
7 (perfectly filled): 37.6%
6: 27.7%
5: 7.9%
4: 0.7%
<=3%: 0%
There’s about a 40% chance that we have a pretty low drama Selection Sunday, a 25% chance someone “deserving” gets left out, and about a 35% chance someone “undeserving” gets put in.
We thus have two main questions to answer:
(a) Within the “deserving” teams, who has the worst resume? These teams are at risk of missing out in an “overfill” situation. My guesses are 10-2 Vanderbilt and 10-2 Oregon, but I’m not sure.
(b) Within the “undeserving” teams, who has the best resume? These teams can get in in an “underfill” situation. My guess is 10-2 Utah.
With that math out of the way, let’s get to this week’s playoff odds.
Georgia and Texas A&M are in. Ole Miss is nearly certain to join them even if they lose to Mississippi State.
Alabama and Oklahoma’s paths are clear. Both will be in if they win out, but they have some tricky games. I think a 3 loss Oklahoma also has a faint shot if there’s a lot of chaos elsewhere.
I do worry a bit about a 10-2 Vanderbilt team getting in, but I think they probably well. Texas has a faint shot if they win out, but they’ll need a lot of help elsewhere.
Indiana and Ohio State are stone cold locks.
Oregon is in if they win out- if they take a loss, I think they’re a little better than a coin flip to make it in. They’d probably rather lose to Washington than USC- because it would be hard to rank them over fellow 2-loss USC. USC is in a good spot if they win out.
Michigan will make it if they win out, but they’ll be nearly a two touchdown underdog to Ohio State next weekend.
Notre Dame is in barring something truly shocking down the stretch.
The ACC has two at-large hopes:
(1) Georgia Tech beats UGA and loses the ACC title game- I still doubt they make it, but it’s definitely possible
(2) Miami wins out and gets in at 10-2. I think they’d have around a 15% chance to get in.
Barring those happening, the ACC is a 1 bid league. Georgia Tech controls their own destiny in the league, and Virginia very nearly does. SMU and Pitt need some help, and Miami needs a lot of help.
People seem pretty confident that Texas Tech is getting in if they lose the Big 12 title game. I am less sure, if we end up in a massive overfill scenario, they’re not going to leave out 10-2 USC or 10-2 Ole Miss for 11-2 Texas Tech.
I don’t think BYU has much of an at-large case if they lose the Big 12 title game. Utah has some at-large case at 10-2, and they also have a path to the conference title game- especailly if BYU slips up against Cincinnati.
The surprise of the week was Tulane getting ranked by the CFP committee while James Madison was not. That changed things a lot- I figured JMU would get in over Tulane if they both won their conferences.
James Madison is very likely to win the Sun Belt and should get in over any American team not named North Texas or Tulane. North Texas and Tulane just need to hold serve these last two weeks to make the conference title game.
College Football Playoff Picture- Week 11 2025
Week 11 brought some more clarity to the playoff picture. Several teams who were projected to make the field won tough games (Texas Tech, Georgia, Oregon). On the other hand, several teams who were hoping to play their way in fell out of at-large contention (Louisville, Virginia, Washington). That leaves us a smaller group of bubble teams.
Some Playoff Math
I’d like to start today’s post by doing a bit of math about how many spots are available in the playoff field. We have 12 playoff berths- 3 are allocated to the ACC, Big 12 and G5 conference champions (technically, we might get 2 G5 teams in this year instead of an ACC team, but that’s immaterial to this exercise). Thus, the most number of combined bids that the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame could get is 9.
Here are the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams with 2 or fewer losses. The conventional wisdom is that these teams all control their own destiny to make the playoff.
Big Ten: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, USC
SEC: Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Texas
Notre Dame
That’s 13 teams for 9 spots! Oh no! I thought all these teams controlled their own destiny? (I saw a tweet to this regard today- what will happen if Oklahoma, Texas and Vanderbilt all win out!)
Not so fast. Michigan, USC, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas all have at least one game left they’ll be underdogs in. Notre Dame and Oregon have significant tests remaining as well.
Using my model, here is the probability that each number of teams finishes at 10-2 or better from the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame:
>= 12: <1%
11: 3%
10: 12%
9: 29%
8: 34%
7: 18%
6: 4%
<= 5: <1%
Recall that if we get 9 such teams, that perfectly fills fill a playoff, along with the Big 12, ACC and G5 champs.
This means that we have about a 15% chance of “overfilling” the playoff (e.g. having more than 12 qualified teams), a 29% chance of “perfectly filling” the playoff and a 56% chance of “underfilling” the playoff.
I think that the discussion should thus mostly stem around what happens if we “underfill” the playoff. For example, suppose that Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame all hold serve, but the other teams lose somewhere. That would leave us with 1 spot to fill.
In an “underfill” case, we are going to have a big debate over who deserves the last bid(s). Some candidates, in rough order of strength of resume:
11-2 Georgia Tech that beats Georgia but loses the ACC title game
11-2 Texas Tech that loses the Big 12 title game
9-3 Texas or Oklahoma
10-2 Utah
11-2 BYU that loses the Big 12 title game
9-3 Georgia or Oklahoma (if they collapse down the stretch)
10-2 Miami
I’m not confident how the committee will rank those teams relative to each other. All I know is that it will be a fierce debate.
SEC
This is pretty simple. Texas A&M is a lock. Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama all need to lose twice to be in trouble. Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas all need to win out to be safe- and all have a game they’ll be an underdog in.
Oklahoma and Texas have a shot of getting in at 9-3, I would guess about 35% for Texas and 25% for Oklahoma.
Big Ten
Oregon should be fine with one more loss, unless we end up in the “overfilled” scenario from the top of the article. USC and Michigan will be looking very good if they win out, but still have to play Oregon and Ohio State, respectively.
ACC + Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in great shape if they win out- but if they lose to Pitt this weekend, it frees up another bid for someone random (Texas? Utah?).
I didn’t discuss it at length at the top of the article, but we have a real chance of a 0 bid ACC. Duke is 5-4, and has a 19% chance of winning
Big 12
Texas Tech is nearly a lock for the Big 12 title game- they have two easy games against UCF and West Virginia left.
The second spot in the Big 12 title game is more confusing. BYU and Cincinnati both control their own destiny, but have to play each other in two weeks. They have tough games elsewhere, and if they both trip up, Utah could take advantage. I also think a 10-2 Utah has a real chance at an at-large bid.
G5
These numbers sum to a bit higher than 100% to make up for the possibility of a 0 bid ACC. South Florida and North Texas both control their own destiny in the American- even if Tulane and East Carolina also finish with 1 loss. That’s because the American uses computer ratings for its tiebreakers (although only 3 of the 4 computers they use are currently publishing results…)
If USF or North Texas falter in the Ameriacn, Tulane, East Carolina and Memphis are next in line.
College Football Playoff Picture- Week 10 2025
The playoff committee’s rankings on Tuesday were telling. My three biggest takeaways were, in order of importance:
(1) They love Utah. I did not expect to see the Utes all the way up at 13th. If they win out, they have a good shot at an at-large bid at 10-2.
(2) They hate the ACC. Miami was a few spots lower than I expected, as was Georgia Tech. It will be hard for two ACC teams to get in- unless Georgia Tech beats Georgia.
(3) I was a bit surprised to see no G5 teams ranked.
Texas A&M (at Missouri): 100% with win, 93% with loss
Ole Miss (vs. The Citadel): 100% with win, 25% with loss
Alabama (vs. LSU): 94% with win, 62% with loss
Georgia (at Mississippi State): 94% with win, 60% with loss
Oklahoma (Bye)
Texas (Bye)
Vanderbilt (vs. Auburn): 33% with win, 2% with loss
Missouri (vs. Texas A&M): 12% with win, 0% with loss
Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Alabama and Georgia look good- although Alabama and Georgia would be in real trouble with losses this week. Both teams face games they could lose.
One of Oklahoma, Texas and Vanderbilt will probably play their way into the field. They still have to play Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, respectively.
Indiana (at Penn State): 100% with win, 99% with loss
Ohio State (at Purdue): 100% with win, 97% with loss
Oregon (at Iowa): 87% with win, 47% with loss
Washington (at Wisconsin): 19% with win, 0% with loss
Michigan (Bye)
USC (vs. Northwestern): 15% win win, 0% with loss
Iowa (vs. Oregon): 15% with win, 0% with loss.
Oregon losing to Iowa would cause a lot of chaos. However, the potential playoff team that no one is talking about is Washington. The Huskies should be double digit favorites in their next 3 games before a season-ending home game against Oregon.
Notre Dame (vs. Navy): 67% with win, 3% with loss
Georgia Tech (Bye)
Louisville (vs. California): 27% with win, 3% with loss
Duke (at Connecticut): 24% with win, 7% with loss
Miami (vs. Syracuse): 19% with win, 0% with loss
Virginia (vs. Wake Forest): 22% with win, 3% with loss
SMU (at Boston College): 11% with win, 0% with loss
Pittsburgh (Bye)
This is a quiet week in the ACC before we have some contenders play each other in the weeks to come- Virginia still has to play Duke, Pitt still has to play Georgia Tech, and SMU still has to play Louisville.
Duke is in an interesting situation- they have 2 out of conference losses and could reasonably pick up a third with a road trip against a tough UConn team. Duke is not a lock to make the playoff if they win the ACC, especially if they lose to UConn. Remember that the top 5 conference champions get autobids, so if 2 G5 champions are ahead of ACC champion Duke, the Blue Devils would get left out.
Texas Tech (vs. BYU): 80% with win, 17% with loss
BYU (at Texas Tech): 69% with win, 30% with loss
Utah (Bye)
Cincinnati (Bye)
TCU (vs. Iowa State): 5% with win, 0% with loss
The best chance for a 2-bid Big 12 is for Texas Tech to beat BYU, and then have BYU win out. That won’t be an easy task for BYU- they still have to play Cincinnati and TCU.
Texas Tech more or less clinches a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win this weekend.
These numbers are all from prior to the weeknight games- so South Florida’s odds are a bit better after their win over UTSA.
I’m still more bearish than the market on James Madison’s odds of making the playoff. I think they’d need some serious chaos in the American (say, South Florida picking up a third loss but still winning the league) to get in over the American champion.
First CFP Rankings Release- What to Watch For?
Tomorrow night is the first weekly rankings release from the college football playoff committee. Here are the things I’ll be on the lookout for that will inform my playoff model.
Ranking of G5 Teams
This is important for two reasons:
(1) Signaling of James Madison vs. American teams
The biggest unanswered question to me is how a committee would handle a 12-1 James Madison team compared to the American champ. My working theory is that a 1 loss American champ, or 2 loss Tulane, would get in over a 1 loss JMU. Right now the AP Poll has Memphis 22nd, JMU 27th, North Texas 30th and South Florida 31st. If JMU is ranked in the top 25, their playoff odds go up a good bit.
(2) Ranking of American teams relative to each other
If there’s a tie to determine who goes to the American title game (which is likely), the first tiebreaker is CFP rankings.
Considering how the committee values top-line wins, I wouldn’t be surprised if they diverge with the AP and put South Florida ahead of Memphis.
ACC- Where are Miami, Georgia Tech and Louisville Ranked?
Last year we saw mixed results as to whether a 2 loss ACC team would get into the playoff. 10-2 Miami did not make it, but 11-2 SMU (who picked up their second loss in the conference title game) did make it- the committee didn’t want to over-penalize them for losing the conference title game.
My guess is that this precedent holds in 2025. In my eyes, 10-2 Miami is a little worse than a coin flip to make it, and an 11-2 Louisville or Georgia Tech team that loses the ACC title game is probably in. A 10-2 Georgia Tech team that say, loses to Pitt but beats Georgia, could be in as well.
Let’s see where these teams stand relative to schools like Texas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Missouri. If they’re behind Texas/Oklahoma but ahead of Vanderbilt/Missouri, I view that as a neutral result. Anything outside of that would be materially positive or negative.
I view Virginia as having a pretty slim at-large chance at this point so I’m less interested in their ranking.
Big 12- Where are BYU and Utah Ranked?
I think that a 2 bid Big 12 is still unlikely- mostly because I think Texas Tech will kill BYU, and BYU will probably lose one more game somewhere down the stretch.
There is some chance a 10-2 BYU or Utah team could get a bid (a more likely outcome is that an 11-2 BYU team with 2 losses to Texas Tech gets in). If either team is ranked higher than their AP poll rank (8th and 17th, respectively), I would view that as a win.
College Football Playoff Picture- Week 8 2025
Big Picture Overview
Before we get into the probabilities for each team to make the playoff, I’d like to start today’s post with a high-level overview of the playoff race as we enter late October.
Right now, my simulations expect the following number of 10-2 teams or better from the P2 (and Notre Dame):
Big Ten: 3.4
SEC: 4.4
Notre Dame: 0.8
Let’s assume for now that all Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams at 10-2 or better get into the playoff- that’s 8.6 bids, leaving 3.4 for everyone else.
The ACC, Big 12 and G5 will get 1 team each. The ACC is about a coin flip to get a second team in (say, 11-2 Georgia Tech that loses the ACC title game, or 10-2 Miami) and the Big 12 and G5 are quite unlikely to get a second team in. So call that 3.5 bids for ACC/Big 12/G5.
That adds up to 12.1 bids. Perfect- we’ve filled out the playoff.
That’s just the expectation though, and if we get a lot more (or less) chaos than expected, things can change.
Suppose we have a lot of chalk, and we end up with the following teams at 10-2 or better:
SEC: Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt
Big Ten: Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon look very good- suppose Michigan upsets Ohio State at home (not impossible, they’d be around a touchdown underdog) and wins their other games
Let’s throw in 10-2 Notre Dame for good measure- they’re double digit favorites in every remaining game.
If we add in a 2 bid ACC (say Georgia Tech wins the conference, and Miami goes 11-1 but misses the ACC title game due to weird tiebreakers), things get weird fast. That’s 4 Big Ten teams, 5 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams, 1 Big 12 team, 1 G5 team and Notre Dame- 14 teams for 12 spots. Who gets left out in this scenario? My guess is Notre Dame and… Ole Miss? I really don’t know.
The reverse scenario is true. All it takes is some chaos here and there (a plucky Pitt team upsetting Notre Dame, Florida beating Ole Miss again, USC beating Oregon) and we’ll be letting 9-3 SEC teams into the playoff.
The point of this all exercise is to illustrate that the base case is that 10-2 Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams will get in, and 9-3 ones will not. However, neither of those rules is a guarantee, and if we get more or less chaos than expected, it can change things a lot.
SEC
Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia are in really good shape. They can all afford an upset somewhere down the stretch and still be in fine shape to make the playoff.
This week will determine who else stays in the SEC playoff hunt. Ole Miss plays Oklahoma and Vanderbilt plays Mizzou. Neither game is an eliminator, per se, but these games have among the biggest playoff leverage of any we’ll see all season. The winners will be >50% to make the playoff and the losers will be <50%.
Texas’ odds got worse despite the win over Kentucky- both because they looked awful and they fell in my ratings, and also because it hurt the chances of 9-3 Texas getting a bid.
Big Ten
Ohio State and Indiana are locks. Oregon has one loss and should be fine even with one more- unless the SEC produces five or six 10-2 teams.
After those three, the Big Ten has a bunch of two loss teams that all have a shot if the win out. USC and Michigan would be in very good shape at 10-2, as they would own wins over Oregon and Ohio State, respectively. I think the other Big Ten teams (Illinois, Nebraska etc.) would have a much tougher time getting a bid at 10-2.
ACC + Notre Dame
The ACC is the least clear of the major conferences. If you include Notre Dame, it is possible that it will have 1 team in the playoff, and it’s possible it will have 3- that has huge knock-on effects to the Big Ten and SEC.
I feel increasingly good about Notre Dame getting in at 10-2- I think the Irish’s stellar computer numbers will help. Their biggest problem is a potential head-to-head comparison with a Miami team that beat them.
Miami and Georgia Tech are both locks if they win out. Georgia Tech can afford one more loss, I don’t know if Miami can.
Big 12
Texas Tech is still the clubhouse leader despite their loss to Arizona State. The Red Raiders have two things going for them. First, they’re the best team in the conference and will be touchdown favorites against anyone else. Second, they’re in a pretty good situation when it comes to tiebreakers for the Big 12 title game.
I’d be very surprised if the Big 12 gets two bids. Those chances go up a bit if BYU is able to knock off Iowa State as an underdog today.
Group of Five
It is increasingly likely that the winner of the American gets the G5 playoff bid. I am entertaining some possibility that the American produces a weaker champion (say, 11-2 Tulane or 10-2 Navy) and a 12-1 James Madison, whose only loss would be to Louisville, gets in. Other than that, I think the winner of the American is getting in.
South Florida is in good shape. Like Texas Tech, they’re both (a) good and (b) are likely to hold the relevant tiebreakers to make the conference title game. They’ll probably play Tulane or North Texas for the conference title.
College Football Ratings Top 25- Week 8 2025
Some notes on this week’s top 25 from my model:
-The gap between Ohio State and the rest of the field is starting to grow a bit.
-Texas Tech is still far above the rest of the Big 12- Utah is the only other team in the top 25.
-Miami has fallen a good bit recently, they were dropping even before the loss to Louisville.
-LSU and USC remain pretty high despite having two losses and poor playoff cases.
-Ole Miss has fallen from 7th to 17th in two weeks, but is still in decent playoff position because they’re 6-1
-Auburn is continuing their annual tradition of being in the top 25 in the computers and losing every close game
College Football Playoff Picture- Week 7 2025
The SEC race was looking very cloudy a few weeks ago, but is starting to look a bit clearer now. Here’s a few things to know as we head into mid-October:
(1) All SEC teams with 2 losses or fewer should make the playoff. This was not a guarantee a few weeks ago- but there’s been enough chaos elsewhere (Penn State, Clemson and Florida State losing, the Big 12 eating itself etc.) that no 10-2 SEC team will get left out.
(2) Chances are rising for a 9-3 SEC team to make the playoff. I have a 9-3 SEC team getting a bid in approximately 60% of simulations right now. Texas, Texas A&M and Alabama are the teams with the best shot of getting a bid at 9-3.
(3) This week’s games will be telling. The winner of LSU/Vanderbilt will rise to about 40% to make the playoff while the loser will fall below 10%. The winner of Georgia/Ole Miss will rise to about 90% to make the playoff while the loser will fall to 50 or 60%.
(4) The most likely scenarios are that we get 4 or 5 SEC teams in the playoff.
The Big Ten is in a much weaker position than last year. Things worked out great for the Big Ten last year- they had 4 teams (Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Indiana) make the playoff relatively comfortably, and no one else come close.
This year, the conference doesn’t look so lucky. Ohio State and Indiana both look like total locks. Oregon is looking good, but has three tough games against Iowa, USC and Washington and must win two of them.
After that, we have a handful of teams that could play their win into contention, but are far outside the field right now. I think USC is the best team of the bunch, but the Trojans have a tough road trip to Notre Dame this week. Washington and Michigan play what is functionally an elimination game this weekend.
It would take an epic collapse for Miami to miss the playoff. They did do it last year- I had them at 90% to make the playoff before their losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse- but I feel better about this year’s team.
Notre Dame presents an interesting case for the committee. The computers (mine included) love the Irish. They have two tough games remaining (home to USC, at Pitt) and then a bunch of easy ones. I feel increasingly good that the Irish’s combination of name brand and good computer ratings will be enough to get them into the playoff at 10-2.
Georgia Tech and Virginia’s most likely path to the playoff is to follow SMU’s path from last year- go 11-1 in the regular season and then lose the ACC title game. Last year, an 11-2 SMU team that lost the ACC title game got in over a 9-3 Alabama team. The question is- would an 11-2 Georgia Tech or Virginia get in over a 9-3 SEC team this year?
Last year’s Big 12 was chaotic. Arizona State was 75/1 to make the playoff in late October before going on a crazy hot streak to win the leauge.
This year’s Big 12 looks much simpler. Texas Tech is the best team in the league and is about 10 points better than anyone else on a neutral field. The only possible at-large cases I see for a non-Texas Tech team is (a) BYU going 12-0 in the regular season or (b) someone picking off the Red Raiders in the regular season and then losing to them in the conference title game.
The league’s best bet for multiple bids is for someone to upset Texas Tech in the conference title game.
Utah, BYU and Cincinnati are all undefeated in conference- all three teams still have to play each other (starting with Utah at BYU this weekend). That will determine who faces Texas Tech in the conference title game.
The winner of the American is quite likely to make the playoff. I am giving Boise State and James Madison some chance in the event of chaos in the American. I think that an 11-2 Boise State team could get the playoff bid over say, an 11-2 East Carolina team that pulls an upset to win the American.
Within the American, I think it’s largely a two horse race between South Florida and Memphis. Those teams square off next weekend- the winner has a clear path to the conference title game and the loser has a decent chance as well. I was higher on Tulane earlier in the year, but they are well behind the Bulls and Tigers in my ratings now.
You might be surprised to not see undefeated UNLV here. My model is quite low on them (they are a 10 point underdog to Boise State this weekend) and they need to go undefeated to have any shot at the playoff.
College Football Ratings Top 25- Week 7 2025
It’s not just my computer model that loves Notre Dame- I’m seeing the Irish pop up in the top 5 of many models. They essentially have a 2 game season remaining- home to USC this week and at Pitt in a few weeks. They’ll be three touchdown favorites in every other game.
College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 5 2025
A busy week in college football leads to lots of changes in this week’s updates. Oregon and Ole Miss took big steps towards a playoff bid while LSU and Penn State’s chances fell.
I’m dividing this post into two sections- first, we’ll give my model’s current odds for each of the main contenders to make the playoff. Second, we’ll go through and discuss what sorts of resumes will and won’t make the playoff
Current Odds
Some teams that I thought were worth highlighting this week:
Miami: I had Miami at 80% to make the playoff last year at one point and they collapsed down the stretch to miss the field. I’m long Miami, so let’s hope for better this year.
Notre Dame: My model loves the Irish and makes them a >14 point favorite in every remaining game except USC. I do think it’s more likely than not that a 10-2 Notre Dame team with 2 close losses to good teams makes the field.
Texas: I already have a good bit of exposure on Texas to miss the playoff, but wouldn’t mind putting on more. The loss to Ohio State puts them behind the 8 ball- I don’t think they’re getting in at 9-3.
Memphis: The G5 playoff race is extremely bunched up with Memphis, USF, James Madison and Boise State all between 14 and 18%, but the Tigers are my favorite for now.
Resume Review
I’ve received a lot of questions along the lines of “will a 10-2 Michigan team make the playoff”? or “how many SEC teams will finish at 10-2?”. Every week I simulate the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Here are some results from my simulator that might help answer these questions.
Note that all records in these simulations are prior to conference title games. I.e. suppose Georgia Tech goes 11-1 in the regular season and then loses the ACC title game to fall to 11-2- they are counted as a 1 loss team here, not a 2 loss team.
We’re pretty likely to see the following teams in the playoff:
4 SEC teams- SEC champion, SEC championship game loser, 2 other 10-2 teams
3 Big Ten teams- Big Ten champion, Big Ten championship game loser, 1 other 11-1/10-2 team
ACC champion, Big 12 champion, best G5 champion
That leaves us with 2 spots left for the following sorts of teams, ranked roughly in order from best resume to worst resume:
(1) Another 10-2 SEC team, should one exist
(2) A team that goes 11-1 and then loses the ACC or Big 12 title game (e.g. 2024 SMU)
(3) 10-2 Notre Dame
(4) Another 10-2 Big Ten team, should one exist
(5) A 9-3 SEC team with a particularly strong resume (e.g. Oklahoma, Alabama)
(6) 10-2 ACC and Big 12 teams
The short version of the story is as follows:
For SEC teams, 10 wins will be enough. There are select teams with particularly hard schedules who will have a chance with 9 wins, but I wouldn’t count on it.
For Big Ten teams, 11 wins will be enough. 10 wins will probably be enough, but for weaker resumes (Indiana, maybe Penn State and Michigan), it could be shaky.
For ACC teams: 11 wins will be enough if you have a marquee win (e.g. Florida State over Alabama). It might be enough even if you don’t.
For Big 12 teams: 11 wins is probably enough, but I’m not sure.
For Notre Dame: 10 wins might be enough. It’ll probably be really close.
College Football Ratings- Week 5 2025
Some teams worth noting this week:
Notre Dame- My model loves them after they demolished Arkansas on the road. Their two losses were both close and could’ve gone either way.
Miami- I’m definitely higher on the Hurricanes than most other computers who have them around 10th. Their talent score is very high in my model.
Georgia- I just don’t think they’re that good. The back seven of their defense was exposed against Alabama.
Auburn- Hugh Freeze is once again doing the thing where he has a good team and loses every close game.
College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 4
This list looks quite a bit different at the top than it did a few weeks ago. A few teams I’d like to highlight:
Ole Miss has looked great with backup QB Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels have a tough few weeks (LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma) and then a November where they’ll be double digit favorites in every game.
Texas Tech shares a lot of similarities with Ole Miss- both looked great with backup QBs, and both have hard Octobers followed by manageable Novembers. The Red Raiders have enough talent in the trenches to simply bully most of the teams on their schedule.
Indiana shot up my ratings after their win over Illinois. Their early win over Old Dominion also looks quite good now. The Hoosiers have two road trips to Oregon and Penn State that will define their season.
Michigan’s playoff odds looked dead two weeks ago. An impressive win against Nebraska (that was not as close as the score indicated) and Oklahoma’s continued success have both been great for the Wolverines. Their two game stretch against USC and Washington will define the season.
A lot of Group of Five teams are represented here. The race for the G5 playoff spot remains wide open with no team above 20% to make it. The winner of the American will likely make the playoff, but the league race is so wide-open there it’s hard to pick a favorite.
College Football Ratings- Week 3 2025
Some teams worth noting here:
Alabama- I’m far from the only computer system that still has the Tide #1 in the SEC. They have demolished two bad teams since their opening loss and their talent level is so high. We’ll learn more after they play Georgia in Week 5.
Notre Dame- Two very close losses to two very good teams. The Irish have about a 40% chance of winning out and entering the playoff conversation at 10-2.
Auburn- I am higher on them than everyone else. Most computers have them in the teens, I have them 12th.
Vanderbilt- This is their highest ranking in my model since I debuted my model back in 2011.
The top of the SEC remains extremely clumped together. It’s going to be a mess of 6-2 and 5-3 teams in the conference standings at the end of the year. The middle of the pack is good enough to pick off several of the top teams as well. Get ready for some chaos.
It’s an interesting week in the Big Ten. We’ll learn a lot about the second tier of the conference when Michigan travels to Nebraska and Illinois travels to Indiana. The winners of those games will join USC in the second tier of the conference, far behind the top tier of Ohio State/Penn State/Oregon.
It’s clearly Miami’s conference to lose. (That probably means they’ll find a way to lose it, considering the last 25 years of their program). Don’t sleep on NC State- I don’t hear anyone discussing them, but the Wolfpack have a good QB in CJ Bailey and a smattering of talent elsewhere.
We get Texas Tech @ Utah and Arizona State @ Baylor this week, and we get TCU @ Arizona State next week. Those three games will tell us a ton about the Big 12 race. My model does not treat Iowa State as a serious contender despite being ranked in the top 25 of the AP Poll.
At the bottom of the league, Oklahoma State is far below everyone else. Kansas State has fallen into the bottom three after a disastrous start to the season.
College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 3
There’s some pretty big disagreements from the market here. I’m lower than the consensus on Oregon, LSU and Texas. I’m higher than the consensus on Texas Tech, TCU and Nebraska.
My model thinks Notre Dame is very likely to make the playoff if they go 10-2 and gives them some chance of making the playoff at 9-3. I personally disagree. This is my first season of my 12-team playoff model and there are a few kinks I want to work out on the back end.
There are likely multiple playoff teams still in this group. If I had to personally pick two teams from this group to make the playoff, I would go with Florida State (their upside is so high given their raw talent) and Old Dominion as a G5 wildcard.
College Football Rankings- Week 2
Yes, Alabama is third. I can hear the complaints already. There are two reasons for this. First, they absolutely eviscerated ULM over the weekend. Other teams are also taking big jumps after killing bad teams (Oregon, Arkansas, USC). I think the general public underrates how much signal can be taken from a result like that. Second, teams 2-15 are bunched pretty close together. The Tide would be only a touchdown favorite against 15th ranked Tennessee on a neutral field.
I have no idea what is going to happen in the SEC. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. The conference has a strange mix of no truly elite teams (although someone will likely separate themselves from the pack at some point) and many good ones. This is going to a be a rock fight.
Unlike the SEC, the top few teams are far ahead of everyone else here. The big risers this week are USC, who has killed two bad teams, and Illinois, who knocked off Duke on the road. On the other hand, Michigan nearly dropped out of the top 25 and UCLA looks awful.
There’s a 1/3 chance Clemson wins the ACC, a 1/3 chance Miami does, and a 1/3 chance someone else does. I’m still a bit more bullish on Florida State than my model and would probably put them third.
My model has not caught up to how bad Stanford is. They should be at the bottom of the conference.
I am all aboard the TCU bandwagon. Everyone is talking about how bad UNC looked in week 1 and no one is talking about how good TCU looked. Texas Tech and Utah are popular picks to win the league right now as well, there’s no surprise in the 2 and 3 spots.
Oklahoma State is my only power conference team outside the top 100. They should probably be outside the top 1000.
The importance of the Notre Dame/Texas A&M game cannot be understated. If the Irish win, they’re going to be on a pretty good course to the playoff. If they lose, they have to win out at a minimum.
South Florida is now the clear favorite to win the conference. Their schedule is manageable- they avoid Tulane in conference play. After the Miami game this week, they don’t play a team in my top 90 until October 25th.
Nearly every team in the Mountain West has been a disappointment. Perhaps the one exception is Fresno State, who is off to a strong 2-0 start. Boise State is still a bit ahead of the pack.
The East division will come down to James Madison and Old Dominion. The West division could go any number of ways- I bet on Troy in the preseason and will be hoping they can pull it out.
My model does not properly understand the Marshall/Southern Miss situation and is too high on the former and too low on the latter.
Ohio and Toledo both impressed in week 2 and are the clear class of the league. It’s a shame both teams lost close games in week 1, as they’d have outside playoff chances otherwise.
Liberty lost to Jax State last week which sent the league race into turmoil. My model is still crazy low on Western Kentucky, but otherwise this roughly makes sense.
College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 2
The top-ranked SEC teams (LSU, Georgia, Texas) are all a good bit lower here than you’d expect. The middle class of the SEC is incredibly strong, and my model thinks that there’s no true standout team at the top. That means a huge clump of teams are projected in the 7-9 win range. Inevitably some SEC teams will emerge to go 10-2 or better, but identifying who they are right now is tough.
Teams that I am higher on that consensus include TCU, South Florida and Georgia Tech. I already have a significant number of bets on all of these teams.
There are enough teams with a chance at the playoff that I figured I should also show the teams that are 26-50 in playoff odds. This is an interesting mix of teams that have taken early losses (Baylor, Arizona State, Michigan) as well as some random power conference teams. It’s likely that at least one, probably two, of these teams will end up making the playoff.
2025 Preseason 1-136 Rankings
Throughout my season preview content, I’ve given my model’s thoughts on each of the 136 FBS teams. However, in the process of creating my model, I often come to different conclusions about teams than the numbers do. For example, there are some things I think the model is way too low on (Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, Iowa etc.) and others it is way too high on (Maryland, Cincinnati, UCF etc.).
I think it is a valuable exercise to go through and rank all teams from 1-136 in the preseason based on my gut intuition. At the end of the season, I will compare this with my model’s preseason 1-136 and see who won.
Unfortunately, I ran out of time before the season started and don’t have time to write a bit about each of the 136 FBS teams. I wrote a blurb for each of the P4 teams that you can find in the preseason conference previews. Regardless, without further ado, here is my personal 1-136, just based off of my personal read of each team.
2025 G5 Conference Previews
I ran out of time before the season started to write up conference previews for the non-P4 leagues. However, I still want to document my model’s preseason thoughts on each team. Below you can find my preseason forecasts for all teams outside the P4 leagues.
2025 Big 12 Preview
I intended to write longer conference previews this season but ran out of time before the season started. Instead, I’ll just be sharing some key numbers from my model, as well as a note or two about each team.
Some definitions of the columns below:
2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model
2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model
Talent Score- My model’s estimate of the total talent on the roster. 0 is FBS average. Note that this weighs high school recruiting higher and portal talent lower than you might expect, but I have found this to be most predictive in the long run.
Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025
Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025
Arizona State- My clear conference favorite. The Sam Leavitt/Jordyn Tyson duo is one of the best QB/WR tandems in the sport. Dillingham has done an excellent job and his use of the portal has been way ahead of the curve.
Texas Tech- They portaled in enough, especially on the lines, to really raise the floor. I’m still not convinced about the ceiling, especially with Behren Morton back at QB. The schedule fell favorably and I think a conference title is possible.
Baylor- Sawyer Robertson is a stud. The rushing game will be good as well. I trust Dave Aranda to figure it out on defense with some subpar pieces. That all adds up to a Big 12 contender. Early games against Auburn and SMU are huge.
Kansas State- I still believe in Avery Johnson. Dylan Edwards is one of the best running backs in the country. They were unlucky last year and deserved to be in the conference title game.
TCU- There were plenty of bidders for Josh Hoover. The fact that TCU held on to them shows what weight class they’re in, money-wise. I think the ceiling is pretty high here given the quality of athlete in the WR and DB rooms.
Colorado- They’re clearly going to regress without Shedeur and Travis. Deion’s prep recruiting has been good enough that it won’t be as big a dropoff as you’d expect. Kaidon Salter is really exciting.
Cincinnati- I am more bearish than my model. This will be the best team of Satterfield’s tenure, but that’s not saying much. Somehow the Luke Fickell/Cincinnati divorce has been a disaster for both parties.
Utah- I am more bullish than my model, it does not properly account for how injured Utah was last year. Devon Dampier is as dynamic a playmaker as you’ll find. Rumor is it’s Kyle Whittingham’s last year- can he go out with a bang?
BYU- Even without Retzlaff’s departure, it was going to be a step back this year from a win/loss perspective. The newfound NIL money raises the floor, but last year’s record was deceiving. I think Bachmeier will develop into a good QB, but it will take a bit.
Kansas- Jalon Daniels’ health is the million dollar question. This was a borderline top 10 team in the country down the strech. The Border War returns this year and will set the tone for the season.
Iowa State- Not sure what all the excitement is about- they were worse than their record last year. Rocco Becht is overrated as well. I’d rather bet on the Big 12 teams with explosive athletes at QB.
UCF- I’m more bearish than my model. Malzahn’s recruiting fell off a cliff at the end and the roster is not up to snuff in the Big 12. Cam Fancher winning the QB battle is a red flag- we know he’s mid, so it means their options must suck.
Houston- Got better as the year went along last year. I love the addition of Connor Weigman in the portal. There are few coaches I have more faith in than Willie Fritz- he will make them a contender in 2026.
Arizona- I cannot believe how poorly last year went. The 2023 version of Noah Fifita has got to be in there somewhere- can they find him? The talent level elsewhere does not inspire confidence- Tetairoa McMillan isn’t walking through that door.
West Virginia- Rich Rod turned water into wine at Jax State. He’ll get it rolling again here at some point, but it probably won’t be this year. The roster was totally revamped in the portal and it might take them a bit to gel.
Oklahoma State- The mishandling of the Ollie Gordon situation should be a federal crime. Gundy was publicly flogged in the offseason and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him walk out at the end of the year.