Ravi Betzig 9/21/25 Ravi Betzig 9/21/25

College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 4

This list looks quite a bit different at the top than it did a few weeks ago. A few teams I’d like to highlight:

Ole Miss has looked great with backup QB Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels have a tough few weeks (LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma) and then a November where they’ll be double digit favorites in every game.

Texas Tech shares a lot of similarities with Ole Miss- both looked great with backup QBs, and both have hard Octobers followed by manageable Novembers. The Red Raiders have enough talent in the trenches to simply bully most of the teams on their schedule.

Indiana shot up my ratings after their win over Illinois. Their early win over Old Dominion also looks quite good now. The Hoosiers have two road trips to Oregon and Penn State that will define their season.

Michigan’s playoff odds looked dead two weeks ago. An impressive win against Nebraska (that was not as close as the score indicated) and Oklahoma’s continued success have both been great for the Wolverines. Their two game stretch against USC and Washington will define the season.

A lot of Group of Five teams are represented here. The race for the G5 playoff spot remains wide open with no team above 20% to make it. The winner of the American will likely make the playoff, but the league race is so wide-open there it’s hard to pick a favorite.

Ravi Betzig 9/18/25 Ravi Betzig 9/18/25

College Football Ratings- Week 3 2025

Some teams worth noting here:

Alabama- I’m far from the only computer system that still has the Tide #1 in the SEC. They have demolished two bad teams since their opening loss and their talent level is so high. We’ll learn more after they play Georgia in Week 5.

Notre Dame- Two very close losses to two very good teams. The Irish have about a 40% chance of winning out and entering the playoff conversation at 10-2.

Auburn- I am higher on them than everyone else. Most computers have them in the teens, I have them 12th.

Vanderbilt- This is their highest ranking in my model since I debuted my model back in 2011.

The top of the SEC remains extremely clumped together. It’s going to be a mess of 6-2 and 5-3 teams in the conference standings at the end of the year. The middle of the pack is good enough to pick off several of the top teams as well. Get ready for some chaos.

It’s an interesting week in the Big Ten. We’ll learn a lot about the second tier of the conference when Michigan travels to Nebraska and Illinois travels to Indiana. The winners of those games will join USC in the second tier of the conference, far behind the top tier of Ohio State/Penn State/Oregon.

It’s clearly Miami’s conference to lose. (That probably means they’ll find a way to lose it, considering the last 25 years of their program). Don’t sleep on NC State- I don’t hear anyone discussing them, but the Wolfpack have a good QB in CJ Bailey and a smattering of talent elsewhere.

We get Texas Tech @ Utah and Arizona State @ Baylor this week, and we get TCU @ Arizona State next week. Those three games will tell us a ton about the Big 12 race. My model does not treat Iowa State as a serious contender despite being ranked in the top 25 of the AP Poll.

At the bottom of the league, Oklahoma State is far below everyone else. Kansas State has fallen into the bottom three after a disastrous start to the season.

Ravi Betzig 9/18/25 Ravi Betzig 9/18/25

College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 3

There’s some pretty big disagreements from the market here. I’m lower than the consensus on Oregon, LSU and Texas. I’m higher than the consensus on Texas Tech, TCU and Nebraska.

My model thinks Notre Dame is very likely to make the playoff if they go 10-2 and gives them some chance of making the playoff at 9-3. I personally disagree. This is my first season of my 12-team playoff model and there are a few kinks I want to work out on the back end.

There are likely multiple playoff teams still in this group. If I had to personally pick two teams from this group to make the playoff, I would go with Florida State (their upside is so high given their raw talent) and Old Dominion as a G5 wildcard.

Ravi Betzig 9/7/25 Ravi Betzig 9/7/25

College Football Rankings- Week 2

Yes, Alabama is third. I can hear the complaints already. There are two reasons for this. First, they absolutely eviscerated ULM over the weekend. Other teams are also taking big jumps after killing bad teams (Oregon, Arkansas, USC). I think the general public underrates how much signal can be taken from a result like that. Second, teams 2-15 are bunched pretty close together. The Tide would be only a touchdown favorite against 15th ranked Tennessee on a neutral field.

I have no idea what is going to happen in the SEC. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying. The conference has a strange mix of no truly elite teams (although someone will likely separate themselves from the pack at some point) and many good ones. This is going to a be a rock fight.

Unlike the SEC, the top few teams are far ahead of everyone else here. The big risers this week are USC, who has killed two bad teams, and Illinois, who knocked off Duke on the road. On the other hand, Michigan nearly dropped out of the top 25 and UCLA looks awful.

There’s a 1/3 chance Clemson wins the ACC, a 1/3 chance Miami does, and a 1/3 chance someone else does. I’m still a bit more bullish on Florida State than my model and would probably put them third.

My model has not caught up to how bad Stanford is. They should be at the bottom of the conference.

I am all aboard the TCU bandwagon. Everyone is talking about how bad UNC looked in week 1 and no one is talking about how good TCU looked. Texas Tech and Utah are popular picks to win the league right now as well, there’s no surprise in the 2 and 3 spots.

Oklahoma State is my only power conference team outside the top 100. They should probably be outside the top 1000.

The importance of the Notre Dame/Texas A&M game cannot be understated. If the Irish win, they’re going to be on a pretty good course to the playoff. If they lose, they have to win out at a minimum.

South Florida is now the clear favorite to win the conference. Their schedule is manageable- they avoid Tulane in conference play. After the Miami game this week, they don’t play a team in my top 90 until October 25th.

Nearly every team in the Mountain West has been a disappointment. Perhaps the one exception is Fresno State, who is off to a strong 2-0 start. Boise State is still a bit ahead of the pack.

The East division will come down to James Madison and Old Dominion. The West division could go any number of ways- I bet on Troy in the preseason and will be hoping they can pull it out.

My model does not properly understand the Marshall/Southern Miss situation and is too high on the former and too low on the latter.

Ohio and Toledo both impressed in week 2 and are the clear class of the league. It’s a shame both teams lost close games in week 1, as they’d have outside playoff chances otherwise.

Liberty lost to Jax State last week which sent the league race into turmoil. My model is still crazy low on Western Kentucky, but otherwise this roughly makes sense.

Ravi Betzig 9/7/25 Ravi Betzig 9/7/25

College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 2

The top-ranked SEC teams (LSU, Georgia, Texas) are all a good bit lower here than you’d expect. The middle class of the SEC is incredibly strong, and my model thinks that there’s no true standout team at the top. That means a huge clump of teams are projected in the 7-9 win range. Inevitably some SEC teams will emerge to go 10-2 or better, but identifying who they are right now is tough.

Teams that I am higher on that consensus include TCU, South Florida and Georgia Tech. I already have a significant number of bets on all of these teams.

There are enough teams with a chance at the playoff that I figured I should also show the teams that are 26-50 in playoff odds. This is an interesting mix of teams that have taken early losses (Baylor, Arizona State, Michigan) as well as some random power conference teams. It’s likely that at least one, probably two, of these teams will end up making the playoff.

Ravi Betzig 8/27/25 Ravi Betzig 8/27/25

2025 Preseason 1-136 Rankings

Throughout my season preview content, I’ve given my model’s thoughts on each of the 136 FBS teams. However, in the process of creating my model, I often come to different conclusions about teams than the numbers do. For example, there are some things I think the model is way too low on (Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, Iowa etc.) and others it is way too high on (Maryland, Cincinnati, UCF etc.).

I think it is a valuable exercise to go through and rank all teams from 1-136 in the preseason based on my gut intuition. At the end of the season, I will compare this with my model’s preseason 1-136 and see who won.

Unfortunately, I ran out of time before the season started and don’t have time to write a bit about each of the 136 FBS teams. I wrote a blurb for each of the P4 teams that you can find in the preseason conference previews. Regardless, without further ado, here is my personal 1-136, just based off of my personal read of each team.

Ravi Betzig 8/27/25 Ravi Betzig 8/27/25

2025 G5 Conference Previews

I ran out of time before the season started to write up conference previews for the non-P4 leagues. However, I still want to document my model’s preseason thoughts on each team. Below you can find my preseason forecasts for all teams outside the P4 leagues.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 Big 12 Preview

I intended to write longer conference previews this season but ran out of time before the season started. Instead, I’ll just be sharing some key numbers from my model, as well as a note or two about each team.

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Talent Score- My model’s estimate of the total talent on the roster. 0 is FBS average. Note that this weighs high school recruiting higher and portal talent lower than you might expect, but I have found this to be most predictive in the long run.

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Arizona State- My clear conference favorite. The Sam Leavitt/Jordyn Tyson duo is one of the best QB/WR tandems in the sport. Dillingham has done an excellent job and his use of the portal has been way ahead of the curve.

Texas Tech- They portaled in enough, especially on the lines, to really raise the floor. I’m still not convinced about the ceiling, especially with Behren Morton back at QB. The schedule fell favorably and I think a conference title is possible.

Baylor- Sawyer Robertson is a stud. The rushing game will be good as well. I trust Dave Aranda to figure it out on defense with some subpar pieces. That all adds up to a Big 12 contender. Early games against Auburn and SMU are huge.

Kansas State- I still believe in Avery Johnson. Dylan Edwards is one of the best running backs in the country. They were unlucky last year and deserved to be in the conference title game.

TCU- There were plenty of bidders for Josh Hoover. The fact that TCU held on to them shows what weight class they’re in, money-wise. I think the ceiling is pretty high here given the quality of athlete in the WR and DB rooms.

Colorado- They’re clearly going to regress without Shedeur and Travis. Deion’s prep recruiting has been good enough that it won’t be as big a dropoff as you’d expect. Kaidon Salter is really exciting.

Cincinnati- I am more bearish than my model. This will be the best team of Satterfield’s tenure, but that’s not saying much. Somehow the Luke Fickell/Cincinnati divorce has been a disaster for both parties.

Utah- I am more bullish than my model, it does not properly account for how injured Utah was last year. Devon Dampier is as dynamic a playmaker as you’ll find. Rumor is it’s Kyle Whittingham’s last year- can he go out with a bang?

BYU- Even without Retzlaff’s departure, it was going to be a step back this year from a win/loss perspective. The newfound NIL money raises the floor, but last year’s record was deceiving. I think Bachmeier will develop into a good QB, but it will take a bit.

Kansas- Jalon Daniels’ health is the million dollar question. This was a borderline top 10 team in the country down the strech. The Border War returns this year and will set the tone for the season.

Iowa State- Not sure what all the excitement is about- they were worse than their record last year. Rocco Becht is overrated as well. I’d rather bet on the Big 12 teams with explosive athletes at QB.

UCF- I’m more bearish than my model. Malzahn’s recruiting fell off a cliff at the end and the roster is not up to snuff in the Big 12. Cam Fancher winning the QB battle is a red flag- we know he’s mid, so it means their options must suck.

Houston- Got better as the year went along last year. I love the addition of Connor Weigman in the portal. There are few coaches I have more faith in than Willie Fritz- he will make them a contender in 2026.

Arizona- I cannot believe how poorly last year went. The 2023 version of Noah Fifita has got to be in there somewhere- can they find him? The talent level elsewhere does not inspire confidence- Tetairoa McMillan isn’t walking through that door.

West Virginia- Rich Rod turned water into wine at Jax State. He’ll get it rolling again here at some point, but it probably won’t be this year. The roster was totally revamped in the portal and it might take them a bit to gel.
Oklahoma State- The mishandling of the Ollie Gordon situation should be a federal crime. Gundy was publicly flogged in the offseason and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him walk out at the end of the year.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 ACC Preview

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Clemson- A legitimate national title contender for the first time since 2020. Klubnik is one of the best QBs in the sport. Their D-line is the best in the sport and it’s not close. Dabo is finally using the portal, at least a little bit.

Miami- I’m a lot more bearish than my model. The recruiting stars are clearly there, but I don’t trust either Cristobal or Beck. It’s hard to imagine them getting better after losing Cam Ward.

Louisville- I’m more bullish than my model. I love the skill position talent here, Isaac Brown and Caullin Lacy are stars. They’ve lost a ton of close games in recent years and that is bound to turn around eventually. Early schedule is light.

Georgia Tech- Best I’ve felt about the Yellow Jackets since Paul Johnson was in charge. Brent Key is an offensive lineman at heart and you can tell from his team. If Haynes King can stay healthy, this is a dark horse playoff contender.

Virginia Tech- They’ve lost a million close games. That should turn around at some point- but if it doesn’t, Brent Pry is out of a job. It’s been a decade since Beamer and VT is in danger of permanent irrelevance.

NC State- A better team than you’d expect, that won’t challenge for the ACC because they’ll lose a stupid game or two somewhere. Losing KC Concepcion shows they don’t have the money to compete with the big boys.

SMU- My model hates them because there is no track record of teams with so much bad recent history sustaining success. They better hope they get the Kevin Jennings we saw most of the season, and not the one we saw against Penn State.

Boston College- They continue to be the most anonymous team in the P4. Not good enough to contend for anything, but they won’t embarrass you either.

Duke- I’m more bullish than my model, because I don’t think it understands how good Mensah is. Last year’s record was smoke and mirrors, but I am extremely bullish on the long term forecast here under Manny Diaz.

North Carolina- Belichick will certainly have some talent at his disposal. It’s a weird combination of pieces, a lot of them through the portal. Neither 3 wins nor 9 wins would shock me.

Florida State- It’s hard to argue last year was a blip given how bad 2017-2021 was. I am shocked they couldn’t do better at QB than Castellanos in the portal, he’s got some talent but is a turnover machine.

Pittsburgh- I’m more bullish than my model thanks to what looks like a vintage Narduzzi defense. This is going to be an Iowa-style team that bludgeons you to death.

Stanford- My model loves Stanford this year, many others have them near the bottom of the P4. The talent is not that bad with a peppering of four stars throughout the roster. Frank Reich is a good coach and will get the most out of them.

Syracuse- A clear step back from last year, but the long term outlook is very strong. They face an absolutely brutal schedule, one of the toughest in the country. I think Steve Angeli was a great QB pickup in the portal.

California- Completely picked apart in the portal. The QB situation is intriguing though- two guys with a lot of recruiting stars are competing for the job. Looks like the last year for Wilcox before Ron Rivera installs his guy.

Virginia- One of the least talented rosters in the P4. The good news is the schedule couldn’t be easier. I like Chandler Morris as a bridge QB. If they don’t bowl this year, it’s probably curtains for Tony Elliott.
Wake Forest- I like the Jake Dickert hire, but year 1 will be tough. Bringing some players from Wazzu will smooth the transition. It’s comical that Robby Ashford is the starting QB for a P4 program.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 Big Ten Preview

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Ohio State- There is so much high end talent on this roster that I have to keep them number one. Jeremiah Smith is the best offensive player in the country and Caleb Downs is the best defensive player.

Penn State- Highest floor team in the country. Would be shocked if they are not top 8 or so. The best RB room in the country and some of the best lines as well. Still waiting for them to beat one of the bluebloods, or prove that Drew Allar has an extra gear.

Oregon- Dante Moore sucked at UCLA, but he was playing behind an awful offensive line. My model is not a fan of them, due to inexperience at QB and a relatively portal-heavy strategy compared to the other big boys.

Michigan- If Underwood is everything he’s cracked up to be, this is a playoff team. He is still a true freshman though and I expect early growing pains in the Oklahoma game. This defense with Wink at the helm should stymie even the best offenses.

Indiana- They won’t win 11 games again, but they’re not crashing down to earth either. I saw a lot of Mendoza last year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a first round pick in April. The fact that Indiana could afford him shows they’re willing to splash the cash.

Minnesota- The classic Big Ten West team that will play physical and run the ball well. The ceiling is capped but the floor is high as well. No one remembers how good they were last year because they lost close games.

Illinois- It’s a complete farce that they’re 12th in the AP Poll. This was a mediocre team last year that lucked their way into 10 wins. Will probably be betting against them early and often.

Nebraska- Raiola should take a step forward in year 2. They’re not where they want to be, but Matt Rhule has taken them out of the depths they had fallen to. Schedule is light- will be significant favorites in all games except Michigan until Halloween.

USC- I disagree with my model here- I’m more bullish. Skill position talent is top 10 in the country. The big question- is Maiava the QB because Lincoln Riley developed him, or because USC was too broke to afford anyone else?

Rutgers- No one does it quite like Schiano. They are a physical team with a great O-line, and no one wants to play them. The QB situation is bleak, but they’ll still find 6 wins.

Iowa- Maybe the biggest disagreement between my gut and my model in the whole country. A mobile QB who lit it up at the FCS level behind an Iowa offensive line? Sign me up.

Wisconsin- Hardest schedule in the country and it’s not close. They strayed far from their roots and paid the price. Now they don’t have the Wisconsin-style roster you’d expect.

Michigan State- A pretty high variance team- it will depend a lot on Aidan Chiles. He’s as boom-or-bust as it gets. They have good pieces here and there but the overall talent level is underwhelming. It’s a coin toss as to whether they get to a bowl.

Washington- Demond Williams is an exciting young QB, but they lose a lot elsewhere. Nearly all the contributors from the 2023 squad are gone and the recent recruiting has been a lot worse than you’d expect.

UCLA- The lack of talent outside Nico is embarrassing. They are in Los Angeles and are near the bottom of the conference in recent recruiting. Feels like Lynn is a bridge coach until they can make a proper Big Ten hire.

Maryland- This is going to be pretty rough- I’m even more bearish than my model. Not really sure what the plan is here long-term, this program has been floating in the ether since moving to the conference.

Northwestern- Still trying to figure out what they are in the post-Pat Fitzgerald world. I’m excited about Preston Stone at QB but he doesn’t have much to work with.

Purdue- They were apocalyptically bad last year. One of the worst power conference teams of the decade. They’ll be better this year, but it would be testing the laws of physics to be worse.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 SEC Preview

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Alabama- My preseason SEC favorite, even if others disagree. Still one of the most talented teams in the sport thanks to pulling in top 5 classes for many years in a row. My model is excited about Ty Simpson, but more excited about Ryan Williams.

Texas A&M- One of my big surprise teams for the year. Mike Elko is a fantastic coach and has a top ten roster in the country. Marcel Reed is in year two and behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Georgia- I expect them to be closer to 2024 Georgia than 2021-2023 Georgia. Somewhat amazed a team with as many resources as UGA has ended up with such a poor QB situation- I expect Gunner Stockton to be a bottom half of the SEC QB.

Oklahoma- Along with A&M, my other big surprise team in the SEC. This is going to be a vintage Brent Venables defense and I love the addition of John Mateer at QB. Schedule is brutal- they could be a top 10 team by quality and go 8-4.

Texas- My hottest preseason take is hating Texas. The Longhorns lose so much outside of the QB position, a dozen draft picks are gone. Arch will be very good, but he’s not the surefire lock for “best QB in the sport” that everyone thinks.

Auburn- They went 5-7 despite finishing 14th in my model last year. Surely they can’t lose every close game again. One of the best WR corps in the nation. A darkhorse playoff pick.

LSU- I like them, but not at the top 5 or top 8 level that some other people seem to. A lot of variance here- if Nussmeier is what he’s cracked up to be, they’re a playoff team. The September schedule is brutal- a slow start could see the team quit on Brian Kelly.

Florida- They’re a very good team but the schedule is brutal. DJ Lagway is a clear top 5 QB in the country, and both lines will be excellent. With the right breaks, they could be in the playoff.

Tennessee- Not a fan this year. It’s not just that they lost Nico, this team was not particularly good last year and was lucky to go 10-2. One of the easiest schedules in the SEC will keep them higher in the standings than they should be.

South Carolina- I love LaNorris Sellers. The schedule is absolutely brutal though- you can tell from the fact I have them 18th but projected for only 6.9 wins. They will be about as good as last year and finish with fewer wins.

Ole Miss- Ole Miss to miss the playoff at -175 felt like highway robbery. Kiffin was a year ahead of his peers on the portal, but that advantage is now gone. With Jaxson Dart gone, this team will regress. They missed their window.

Arkansas- Scheduling Memphis and Notre Dame when you already play 8 SEC games makes no sense to me. It’s almost like they want to give Pittman no chance. They’ll beat someone they shouldn’t and still go 6-6.

Missouri- Everyone knows they were worse than their record last year. Still, 21 years in two wins is extremely impressive given their resources relative to the rest of the league. Not a fan of the QB situation.

Kentucky- Calzada intrigues me at QB. But it does seem things are turning for the worse at Kentucky- it hasn’t been the same since Stoops’ dalliance with the Texas A&M job.

Mississippi State- Pretty brutal that they lost Van Buren (just to be a backup at LSU) after he showed promise down the stretch last year. This was the clear worst team in the conference last year, and they’ll get better but still likely finish last.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 CFB Playoff Predictions

Week Zero starts tomorrow, and that means it’s time for some more preseason CFB content. Today I’ll take a look at some teams’ chances to make the playoff. I spent a lot of time in the offseason building a robust model to predict the playoff, and I feel pretty good about where I ended up. All of the below probabilities are calculated by simulating the season 10,000 times using my preseason ratings.

There’s a clear top tier here- Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Clemson and Alabama. Unsurprisingly, these are also the top five teams in my preseason ratings. The big difference between my model and the AP poll here is Alabama. The Crimson Tide are my favorites to win the SEC, but are all the way down at 8th in the AP poll. I got Alabama at +500 to win the SEC back in May, that line is more like +350 or +400 now depending on where you look.

The second row of teams is an interesting bunch. I’m much lower on Oregon than the consensus (I have Oregon to miss the playoff +220) as well as Georgia (I have them to miss the playoff +198). Miami, on the other hand, is the rare team that I personally disagree with my model on- the Hurricanes have a lot of talet up and down the roster, but I am pretty bearish on Carson Beck at QB.

In the third row, I have to talk about Texas. The Longhorns are preseason number 1 in the AP poll, but my model gives them only a 28% chance at the playoff. I’ll admit this is too low, but I’m still quite bearish on Texas. If you’ve been following my offseason picks, you know I’ve been betting against the Longhorns at every opportunity. They come in 9th in my preseason ratings, but the killer schedule drops them down to 14th in terms of playoff odds.

The bottom two rows are a mix of teams who are in the back end of the AP poll (Tennessee, Kansas State, Indiana) and unranked teams that I am bullish on (Auburn, Louisville, Georgia Tech).

I think that the gap between Boise State and the rest of the G5 is quite large. I bet Boise State to make the playoff +285 back in May and the rest of the market clearly agrees- it’s about +185 now. The Broncos will face one of their toughest tests of the season in Week 1 when they travel to USF- the Bulls are my 6th rated G5 team.

It’s worth pointing out that there’s still a pretty big chance of someone surprising coming out of the G5 to make the playoff this year. There’s a 40% chance that someone either than Boise State or Tulane makes it in from the G5 this year, and a 10% chance that some team outside this graphic makes it in.

Ravi Betzig 6/11/25 Ravi Betzig 6/11/25

2025 CFB Playoff Preview

Methodology

Longtime readers of my blog will know that my favorite picks I make all year are my preseason college football bets. Over the last month, I have posted lots of bets on win totals, odds to win the conference, etc.

Last week the major sportsbooks posted odds to make the CFP for the first time this offseason. I was super excited for this, as these were my most profitable bets last year. If you were following my picks last year I’m sure you remember when I picked Indiana to make the playoff at 30/1 odds in September. The 12-team CFP is so new that I think a lot of people struggle to properly model it, leaving some nice opportunities.

To prepare for this, I spent some time this offseason developing some logic to simulate the playoff selection process. It’s hard to exactly replicate the logic that a human committee does, but I made my best guess. I won’t bore everyone with the details of how it works here, but if you’re interested in learning some details, feel free to shoot me a DM on Twitter. I’d be interested to discuss this with other people who have tried their hand at this problem.

Later this week I’ll post the bets I like for odds to make/miss the CFP. Today I’ll go through some big picture thoughts on how the playoff will shape up this year.

An Example Simulation

To start, I simulate the regular season 10,000 times. At the end of these simulations, I then guess who I think the committee would pick in that scenario. Here’s an example simulation to give you an idea of how it works.

In this simulation, the auto-bids go to major conference champions Clemson, Texas, Penn State and Kansas State as well as James Madison, who is the best G5 team. The first few at-large spots are quite clear: South Carolina and Michigan went 12-0 in the regular season before losing their conference title game, and Texas A&M went 11-1 but missed the SEC title game.

For the last at-large spots, the model selected the teams that lost the Big 12 and ACC title games (Arizona State and Georgia Tech, respectively) who were each 11-1 prior to that loss. It went with 10-2 Auburn and Tennessee for the last spots, leaving out 10-2 Illinois, SMU, Miami and Louisville. This was on the basis of strength of schedule- when comparing power conference teams with the same record, it goes with the one that played the hardest schedule.

Keep in mind that this is just one simulation, and in different simulations, different teams outperform and underperform expectations. In this particular simulation, South Carolina was one of the best teams in the country (not an impossible scenario given LaNorris Sellers’ upside) and Georgia stumbled to 8-4. In the simulation after this one, Georgia steamrolled everyone and went 13-0. This is why I simulate the season 10,000 times- to capture a wide array of possible outcomes.

Note that I built this logic before auto-byes for conference champions were scrapped. Since I’m just trying to predict selection in the playoff and not seeding, this is fine for now, but I’ll fix it later.

Expected Playoff Bids by Conference

There’s been a lot of discussion as to how many teams each conference can expect in the playoff. Last year’s breakdown was as follows:

Big Ten: 4 (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana)

SEC: 3 (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee)

ACC: 2 (SMU, Clemson)

Big 12: 1 (Arizona State)

Mountain West: 1 (Boise State)

Independent: 1 (Notre Dame)

My gut feeling last year was that the Big Ten was not going to get 4 teams in most years, and they got lucky there was such a gap between the top four teams in the league and everyone else. Similarly, I think the SEC will probably get more than three teams in a lot of the time.

Based on 10,000 simulations of the playoff, here is the expected number of bids for each conference this year:

SEC: 3.45

Big Ten: 2.98

ACC: 2.01

Big 12: 1.84

Independent (inc. Notre Dame): 0.70

G5 Conferences: 1.02

I think most people would expect the Big 12 and ACC to be lower and the Big Ten and SEC to be higher. We’ll see how it plays out in the future, but I think last year’s ACC and Big 12 had an unusual amount of parity.

Expected Playoff Bids by Record

Alabama nearly got into the playoff with a 9-3 record last year. Do we expect 9-3 SEC teams to make the playoff in the future? Could we ever see an 8-4 team in the playoff?

We can answer these sorts of questions with my 10,000 simulations of the playoff. I have divided teams into different “categories” of resume. Not all teams within a category are created equal (10-2 Ohio State is a shoo-in for the playoff since they play Texas, 10-2 Indiana is unlikely to make it with a weak non-conference schedule), but it serves as a general guide.

After looking at a lot of individual simulations, here are a few general rules I believe in:

Any power conference team with 0 or 1 losses will make the field. Last year’s 11-1 Indiana is about as weak a 1 loss team as you’ll ever see, and they ended up making it in with some room to spare.
11-2 teams in the at-large pool (i.e. teams that go 11-1 in the regular season and lose their conference title game) are a good bet. SMU is an example of such a team from last year. The absolute weakest 11-2 teams might miss the field. For example, a hypothetical 11-2 BYU team that lost the Big 12 title game last year might have been left out.
In most simulations, the last spot is a battle between 10-2 power conference teams. 10-2 teams with stronger schedules (e.g. most SEC teams, a Clemson team that plays LSU and South Carolina out of conference, etc.) are in good shape. 10-2 teams with weaker schedules (e.g. Illinois, NC State) are in bad shape.
About half the simulations feature a 9-3 team in the playoff. Only 9-3 teams that play one of the absolute toughest schedules in the country have any real shot.
8-4 teams have no shot at the playoff.

In the median simulation, we have 14 power conference teams with double digit wins at the end of the regular season. In both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, we had 14 power conference teams with double digit wins at the end of the regular season. This was one of the key metrics that I looked at to tune the simulation and I think is a good sign that it matches reality pretty well.

Simulating the playoff selection process is an interesting problem. I used the results above to inform my bets on teams to make/miss the playoff and I’ll be back later in the week with some of my favorite bets.