College Football Playoff Predictions- Week 5 2025
A busy week in college football leads to lots of changes in this week’s updates. Oregon and Ole Miss took big steps towards a playoff bid while LSU and Penn State’s chances fell.
I’m dividing this post into two sections- first, we’ll give my model’s current odds for each of the main contenders to make the playoff. Second, we’ll go through and discuss what sorts of resumes will and won’t make the playoff
Current Odds
Some teams that I thought were worth highlighting this week:
Miami: I had Miami at 80% to make the playoff last year at one point and they collapsed down the stretch to miss the field. I’m long Miami, so let’s hope for better this year.
Notre Dame: My model loves the Irish and makes them a >14 point favorite in every remaining game except USC. I do think it’s more likely than not that a 10-2 Notre Dame team with 2 close losses to good teams makes the field.
Texas: I already have a good bit of exposure on Texas to miss the playoff, but wouldn’t mind putting on more. The loss to Ohio State puts them behind the 8 ball- I don’t think they’re getting in at 9-3.
Memphis: The G5 playoff race is extremely bunched up with Memphis, USF, James Madison and Boise State all between 14 and 18%, but the Tigers are my favorite for now.
Resume Review
I’ve received a lot of questions along the lines of “will a 10-2 Michigan team make the playoff”? or “how many SEC teams will finish at 10-2?”. Every week I simulate the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Here are some results from my simulator that might help answer these questions.
Note that all records in these simulations are prior to conference title games. I.e. suppose Georgia Tech goes 11-1 in the regular season and then loses the ACC title game to fall to 11-2- they are counted as a 1 loss team here, not a 2 loss team.
We’re pretty likely to see the following teams in the playoff:
4 SEC teams- SEC champion, SEC championship game loser, 2 other 10-2 teams
3 Big Ten teams- Big Ten champion, Big Ten championship game loser, 1 other 11-1/10-2 team
ACC champion, Big 12 champion, best G5 champion
That leaves us with 2 spots left for the following sorts of teams, ranked roughly in order from best resume to worst resume:
(1) Another 10-2 SEC team, should one exist
(2) A team that goes 11-1 and then loses the ACC or Big 12 title game (e.g. 2024 SMU)
(3) 10-2 Notre Dame
(4) Another 10-2 Big Ten team, should one exist
(5) A 9-3 SEC team with a particularly strong resume (e.g. Oklahoma, Alabama)
(6) 10-2 ACC and Big 12 teams
The short version of the story is as follows:
For SEC teams, 10 wins will be enough. There are select teams with particularly hard schedules who will have a chance with 9 wins, but I wouldn’t count on it.
For Big Ten teams, 11 wins will be enough. 10 wins will probably be enough, but for weaker resumes (Indiana, maybe Penn State and Michigan), it could be shaky.
For ACC teams: 11 wins will be enough if you have a marquee win (e.g. Florida State over Alabama). It might be enough even if you don’t.
For Big 12 teams: 11 wins is probably enough, but I’m not sure.
For Notre Dame: 10 wins might be enough. It’ll probably be really close.