2024 Bracket Picking Guide

General Bracket Theory

There are a lot of articles out there to help you pick your bracket. Most of them will give you some statistics about past champions and a rule about not picking freshman point guards. I’m aiming to do something a little different and provide a more mathematically sound basis to bracket picking.

It may sound a bit silly, but the first thing you need to figure out when filling in your bracket is what exactly you are trying to accomplish. If you just want to maximize your expected score, the optimal strategy is quite easy- pick only favorites. You’re quite likely to end up above the median bracket with this strategy but quite unlikely to make it to the very top of the leaderboard.

More likely you want to win a pool ranging in size from 5 to 5,000 people. It’s important to note the size of the pool you’re trying to win- the bigger the pool, the more aggressive you need to be. A general rule of thumb I like to follow is that if you’re trying to win a bracket pool of n people, you want to maximize your chances of finishing in the top 1/n brackets. In plain English, if you want to win a 10 person pool, you want to maximize your odds of finishing in the top 1/10 of brackets. Similarly, if you want to win a 5,000 person pool, you want to maximize your odds of finishing in the top 1/5,000 of brackets. Thus, the bigger the pool, the more aggressive you need to be.

The key is to identify which teams are underpicked relative to their true likelihood of winning the tournament and pick them. Just how underpicked of a team you want to go for depends on how aggressive you need to be. If you’re trying to win a 5,000 person pool, you may need to really shoot for the stars, and pick a 1/500 longshot that only 1/5,000 people are picking in their brackets. If you’re trying to win a 5 person pool, you can be a bit more by the book. I generally like to go for an unconventional national champion and then relatively consensus Final Four picks elsewhere. This was my strategy last year and it worked brilliantly as I won my 80 person pool, picking UConn to win it all.

Without further ado, here’s some data on how frequently various teams are being picked (data courtesy of Yahoo!’s bracket challenge) as well as various metrics of how likely each team is to advance to each round.

2024 Data- Overall

Some brief column definitions:

Computer Avg.: The team’s probability of winning the tournament, averaged over the three computer systems shown.

Vig Adjusted Market: The team’s probability of winning the tournament, based on Vegas betting odds (odds courtesy of Circa).

Picked: What % of users are picking the team to win their bracket.

Diff: “Vig Adjusted Market” - “Picked”

Ratio: “Vig Adjusted Market” / “Picked”

The first thing that stands out here is that Connecticut is picked by nearly 1/3 of users, but by most metrics has around a 1/6 chance of winning the tournament. Despite being the most likely to win according to Vegas, there’s no value in the Huskies.

Depending on how big of a pool you’re trying to win, there’s varying degrees of aggression you can take. For a typical pool size of 5-25 brackets, Purdue, Arizona and Tennessee are all reasonable picks. Houston is beloved by the computers but strangely not by the betting markets (this was also the case in 2022). In a 50-100 person pool, Auburn is probably your best bet.

Once your pool size gets into the triple digits, you need to start looking further afield for a champion. BYU and St. Mary’s are decent options, and if you want a real wildcard, maybe take a shot on a New Mexico squad that is a top 30 outfit at most computers and has a favorable first and second round draw.

2024 Data- East Region

Connecticut is picked to make the Final Four by almost 2/3 of users but has only about a 40% chance of making it there. If you’re going to go with an unconventional Final Four pick somewhere, this could be the region to do it. Any of the next three teams- Iowa State, Illinois and Auburn all are underpicked.

2024 Data- South Region

The thing you don’t want to do here is pick Kentucky who is picked in over 20% of brackets but is outside the top 15 in every computer. Going chalk with Houston is a reasonable pick. I am pretty shocked that more people are not picking Duke given their brand, they’re surprisingly underpicked.

2024 Data- Midwest Region

This is probably the least clear region. Creighton could be worth a punt. Gonzaga would be a better pick if they hadn’t drawn an awful first round matchup with McNeese. Purdue and Tennessee are both being picked right in line with their fairs.

2024 Data- West Region

North Carolina is the weakest 1 seed by far, and traditionally picking the worst 1 seed to go down early is a nice strategy. Oddly enough- more people are picking the Tar Heels to make the Final Four than are picking Purdue or Houston. That’s the power of name recognition, I guess.

This is the most wide open region and I couldn’t fault you with picking any of the 2 through 5 seeds to advance, I kind of like a flyer on Alabama who has an easy first round matchup and a talented roster.

All in all, bracket picking is part art and part science. Hopefully after reading this you have a bit of a better idea as to what sorts of risks are worth taking this year and what sorts of risks are not. Best of luck!

Final 2024 Women’s Bracketology

The women’s selection committee tends to be a bit more unpredictable than the men’s, so I’m a lot less confident in these predictions than I am in my men’s predictions. Here are my final predictions for the 2024 women’s field- I’d be pretty happy if I got 66 or more of these teams correct.

1: South Carolina, Iowa, Stanford, UCLA

2: USC, Texas, Ohio State, Connecticut

3: LSU, Notre Dame, NC State, Oregon State

4: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Colorado, Gonzaga

5: Creighton, Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma

6: Baylor, UNLV, Nebraska, West Virginia

7: Louisville, Syracuse, Duke, Princeton

8: Ole Miss, Michigan State, Marquette, North Carolina

9: Alabama, Maryland, Florida State, Tennessee

10: Iowa State, Kansas, Penn State, Michigan

11: (Washington State/Miami (FL)), Richmond, (Villanova/Vanderbilt), Middle Tennessee

12: Green Bay, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota State, Fairfield

13: Drake, Eastern Washington, Marshall, Rice

14: Jackson State, Portland, Kent State, Chattanooga

15: Norfolk State, Cal Baptist, UC Irvine, Texas A&M Corpus Christi

16: Drexel, Maine, (Sacred Heart/UT-Martin), (Holy Cross/Presbyterian)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Columbia, Arizona, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Auburn, California, Washington

Final 2024 Men’s Bracketology

Selection Sunday is finally upon us. It’s been a tough Sunday for me so far as my Brown Bears dropped the Ivy League final in heartbreaking fashion. I hope things go better for my Michigan State Spartans later tonight- I think MSU is headed to the First Four, but I’d be lying if I said I felt 100% comfortable right now.

My seed list is unchanged from this morning, but my bracket is a bit different as I realized that I put Marquette and UConn in the same region. Alas, these are the perils of putting together a bracket on Saturday after midnight after a full day of watching hoops.

I’m not that confident about the bubble this year- no team outside my top 32 is totally safe and I could reasonably see any of my first 5 teams out in the tournament. I’m in the minority having Mississippi State out of the field but I think they have the worst losses of any of the high major teams on the bubble, most notably the Q4 home loss to Southern.

Best of luck to my fellow bracketologists this year, and once again a hearty thanks to the Bracket Matrix for compiling all of our predictions once again.

(Note- I have marked this bracket final even though the American championship game is still going. In the unlikely event that Temple mounts a massive comeback, I will edit this submission).

1: Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina

2: Iowa State, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette

3: Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky

4: Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Alabama

5: BYU, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Florida

6: South Carolina, Utah State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State

7: Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State, Dayton

8: Clemson, Nebraska, Boise State, Texas

9: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Colorado State, Colorado

10: Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, (TCU/St. John’s), (Michigan State/Texas A&M)

11: Drake, Oregon, NC State, James Madison

12: Grand Canyon, McNeese State, Samford, Duquesne

13: UAB, Vermont, Charleston, Yale

14: Akron, Morehead State, Oakland, Colgate

15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, Stetson

16: Longwood, St. Peter’s, (Grambling State/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Next Four Out: Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bids by Conference:

Big 12: 9

SEC: 7

Big Ten: 6

Mountain West: 6

ACC: 4

Big East: 4

Pac-12: 4

American: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

West Coast: 2

Men’s Bracketology 3/17/2024 AM

The last few days have been the craziest lead-up to Selection Sunday I can remember in my 14 year bracketology career. Oregon, NC State and Temple all stole bids yesterday, bringing us up to a record 4 bid thieves this year (maybe 5, depending on how you categorise New Mexico).

This led to pandemonium on the bubble- I feel a lot less sure about the bubble this year than I do most years. I moved Virginia, Seton Hall and Mississippi State out of my bracket to make room for the 3 bid thieves- I have a feeling that I will be in the minority with Mississippi State not in my final field, but they don’t compare favorably to other 12, 13 and 14 loss major conference teams on the bubble.

I will have my final update this afternoon after the American and Big 10 championship games. Enjoy the last day of conference tournaments!

1: Connecticut, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina

2: Iowa State, Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette

3: Creighton, Baylor, Illinois, Kentucky

4: Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Alabama

5: BYU, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Florida

6: South Carolina, Utah State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State

7: Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington State, Dayton

8: Clemson, Nebraska, Boise State, Texas

9: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Colorado State, Colorado

10: Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, (TCU/St. John’s), (Michigan State/Texas A&M)

11: Drake, Oregon, NC State, James Madison

12: Grand Canyon, McNeese State, Samford, Duquesne

13: UAB, Vermont, Charleston, Yale

14: Akron, Morehead State, Oakland, Colgate

15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Long Beach State, Stetson

16: Longwood, St. Peter’s, (Grambling State/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)

First Four Out: Mississippi State, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Next Four Out: Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest, Ohio State

Moving In: UAB, Oregon, NC State, St. Peter’s, Long Beach State, Yale

Moving Out: Virginia, Seton Hall, Mississippi State, Fairfield, UC Davis, Princeton

Bracketology 3/16/2024

This is the strongest bubble in recent memory. Bubble teams are winning left and right- the SEC had the biggest winners yesterday as Texas A&M and Mississippi State knocked off Kentucky and Tennessee. When you add in our likely bid thieves- the A-10 already has one and the ACC, Pac-12 and American threaten to have more- it leads to the strongest bubble in my bracketology career.

I’m going to go through the whole seed list with a fine-toothed comb tonight for my final update(s) tomorrow, so expect to see a little movement here or there. 13 more bids will be punched today- buckle up!

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Iowa State

3: Baylor, Creighton, Illinois, Kentucky

4: Kansas, Duke, Auburn, Alabama

5: BYU, Texas Tech, Utah State, Wisconsin

6: St. Mary’s, South Carolina, Gonzaga, San Diego State

7: Florida, Nevada, Dayton, Clemson

8: Washington State, Nebraska, Florida Atlantic, Northwestern

9: Boise State, Texas, Oklahoma, St. John’s

10: Michigan State, Colorado State, Mississippi State, Colorado

11: TCU, (Seton Hall/Texas A&M), Drake, (New Mexico/Virginia)

12: James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon, McNeese State

13: Samford, Vermont, Duquesne, Charleston

14: Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland, Akron

15: South Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Fairfield, UC Davis

16: Stetson, Grambling State, (Longwood/Montana State), (Howard/Wagner)

First Four Out: Pittsburgh, Indiana State, Providence, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Ohio State, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State

Also Considered: Princeton, South Florida

Moving In: Texas A&M, Fairfield, Western Kentucky, Howard, UC Davis

Moving Out: Pittsburgh, Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Norfolk State, UC Irvine

Bracketology 3/15/2024

It was another strong day for bubble teams with Virginia, Colorado, Pitt, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Texas A&M, Providence and Ohio State all winning. This is bad news both for teams that lost yesterday and have no games left (Wake Forest, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State) as well as Indiana State who got passed by New Mexico. Further complicating matters is the chaos in the A-10 where all four top seeds lost, opening up the league as a bid stealer. I have slotted Duquesne in as my second A-10 team and for now they are on the 13 line.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kentucky, Illinois

4: Kansas, Duke, Alabama, Auburn

5: Utah State, Texas Tech, BYU, South Carolina

6: St. Mary’s, Wisconsin Gonzaga, Washington State

7: Nevada, San Diego State, Northwestern, Dayton

8: Florida, Clemson, Florida Atlantic, Boise State

9: Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, St. John’s

10: Colorado State, Michigan State, TCU, Seton Hall

11: Virginia, Drake, (Colorado/Pittsburgh), (Mississippi State/New Mexico)

12: James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon, McNeese State

13: Samford, Vermont, Duquesne, Charleston

14: UC Irvine, Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland

15: Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Akron, South Dakota State

16: Stetson, Norfolk State, (Grambling State/Longwood), (Montana State/Wagner)

First Four Out: Indiana State, Texas A&M, Providence, Ohio State

Next Four Out: Wake Forest, Iowa, Villanova, Kansas State

Also Considered: Princeton, South Florida

Moving In: Duquesne, New Mexico

Moving Out: Wake Forest, Indiana State

Bracketology 3/14/2024

Pretty much every bubble team in action yesterday won. The most notable results were in the Big 12 where Kansas State and Cincinnati both started the day on the fringe of the conversation and picked up nice wins over teams in the field. Both still have work to do, but Kansas State in particular will be close to the field with a win over Iowa State today.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kentucky, Duke

4: Illinois, Kansas, Alabama, BYU

5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech

6: Nevada, St. Mary’s, Dayton, Gonzaga

7: Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Clemson

8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Florida Atlantic

9: Nebraska, Texas, TCU, Seton Hall

10: Oklahoma, Michigan State, Colorado State, Virginia

11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)

12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Charleston

14: UC Irvine, Morehead State, Colgate, Oakland

15: Quinnipiac, Sam Houston State, Akron, Norfolk State

16: Stetson, South Dakota State, (Grambling State/Longwood), (Montana State/Wagner)

First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Kansas State

Next Four Out: Villanova, Providence, Ohio State, Princeton

Also Considered: Cincinnati, Memphis, Utah, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida

Moving In: Sam Houston State, Montana State

Moving Out: Louisiana Tech, Montana

Bracketology 3/13/2024

The first major conference bubble teams begin their conference tournaments today, with TCU, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Villanova, Providence and Kansas State all in action. With the exception of TCU, who is still probably avoiding Dayton with a win, all of those other teams face must-wins. Wake Forest would move out of my field with a loss to Notre Dame and every other team on that list is currently outside of my field.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky

4: Duke, Illinois, Alabama, BYU

5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech

6: Nevada, St. Mary’s, Dayton, Clemson

7: Gonzaga, Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern

8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Texas

9: Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Seton Hall

10: Michigan State, Colorado State, TCU, Virginia

11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)

12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, Charleston

14: UC Irvine, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Colgate

15: Oakland, Quinnipiac, Akron, Montana

16: Norfolk State, Stetson, (South Dakota State/Grambling State), (Longwood/Wagner)

First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Villanova

Next Four Out: Providence, Ohio State, Princeton, Kansas State

Also Considered: Memphis, Utah, Syracuse, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida, Butler, Oregon

Moving In: Wagner

Moving Out: Merrimack

Bracketology 3/12/2024

The biggest news of Monday was James Madison locking up their bid by winning the Sun Belt tournament. Despite a 31-3 record, I think James Madison would’ve been on the outside looking in with a loss to Arkansas State, but I’ll happy to see the Dukes in the tournament.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina

2: Tennessee, Arizona, Marquette, Baylor

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky

4: Duke, Illinois, Alabama, BYU

5: Auburn, Utah State, South Carolina, Texas Tech

6: Gonzaga, Nevada, Dayton, Clemson

7: Washington State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, St. Mary’s

8: Florida, Boise State, San Diego State, Texas

9: Florida Atlantic, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Seton Hall

10: Michigan State, Colorado State, TCU, Virginia

11: St. John’s, Drake, Colorado, (Mississippi State/Pittsburgh)

12: (Indiana State/Wake Forest), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Morehead State, Colgate

15: Oakland, Quinnipiac, Akron, Montana

16: Norfolk State, Merrimack, (Stetson/South Dakota State), (Grambling State/Longwood)

First Four Out: Iowa, Texas A&M, New Mexico, Villanova

Next Four Out: Providence, Ohio State, Princeton, Kansas State

Also Considered: Memphis, Utah, Syracuse, UNLV, Richmond, South Florida, Butler, Oregon

Bracketology 3/11/2024

Nearly every team on the seed list played over the weekend and changes abound up and down the bracket. At the top, North Carolina won on the road at Duke and Tennessee lost to Kentucky, leading to the Heels taking over as the last 1 seed. On the bubble, New Mexico, Villanova, Iowa, Mississippi State and Providence all lost, opening the door for some other teams. I have very reluctantly moved Wake Forest and Pittsburgh in as my last two teams in, but I don’t feel great about it. They are likely to match up in the ACC quarterfinals and that looks like a must-win game for both.

Bracketology 3/9/2024

Today is the biggest bubble day of the year- nearly every team along the cut line will play today. Maybe the biggest opportunity is for Villanova, who hosts Creighton- the Wildcats have an opportunity for a huge Q1-A win, but would be staring down a 15-loss at-large case with a loss- something the committee heavily frowns on.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette

3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke

4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky

5: Auburn, BYU, Dayton, Wisconsin

6: San Diego State, South Carolina, Florida, Washington State

7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Boise State

8: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska

9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas

10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia

11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State

12: (New Mexico/Drake), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, High Point, Akron, Louisiana Tech

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)

First Four Out: Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Florida

Next Four Out: Utah, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, UNLV

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bracketology 3/8/2024

Utah lost on the road to Oregon State last night which might be it for their at-large chances. The Utes looked to be on a path to a protected seed at New Year’s but have done nothing of note since then. Elsewhere in the Pac-12, Colorado won an important game at Oregon and looks more likely than not to make the field now.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette

3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke

4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky

5: San Diego State, Auburn, BYU, Dayton

6: Wisconsin, South Carolina, Florida, Washington State

7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech

8: Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Boise State

9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas

10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia

11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State

12: (New Mexico/Drake), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, High Point, Akron, Louisiana Tech

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)

First Four Out: Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh, South Florida

Next Four Out: Utah, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, UNLV

Moving In: Drake

Moving Out: Utah

Bracketology 3/7/2024

Iowa State continues to build an impressive resume, and got another Q1-A win last night by beating BYU at home. The Cyclones look increasingly firm on the 2 line. As you might remember, the last time they got a 2 seed was in 2001, when they lost to 15 seed Hampton in one of the greatest tournament games of all time.

On the bubble, Michigan State and Seton Hall look increasingly safe after home wins over Northwestern and Villanova. Utah is the only bubble team in action tonight, most bubble teams just have one regular season game remaining on Saturday.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Iowa State, Marquette

3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke

4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky

5: San Diego State, Auburn, BYU, Washington State

6: Dayton, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Florida

7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech

8: Oklahoma, Gonzaga, Nebraska, Boise State

9: Northwestern, TCU, Colorado State, Texas

10: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Mississippi State, Virginia

11: Seton Hall, St. John’s, (Villanova/Colorado), Indiana State

12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, High Point, Akron

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)

First Four Out: Drake, Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh

Next Four Out: South Florida, Memphis, Wake Forest, Texas A&M

Also Considered: Richmond, Princeton, Kansas State, Grand Canyon, Oregon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bracketology 3/6/2024

Wake Forest looked to be on their way to the tournament after they knocked off Duke at home but they’re 0-3 since and lost at home to Georgia Tech last night. They have a lot of work to do to make the field now, starting with a home game against Clemson this weekend.

We had a lot of movement on the 4 line with Illinois, Alabama and San Diego State all losing last night. I’ve bumped Kentucky back up to the final protected seed this morning.

1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State

3: Kansas, Baylor, Creighton, Duke

4: Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Kentucky

5: San Diego State, BYU, Auburn, Washington State

6: South Carolina, Dayton, Wisconsin, Florida

7: Nevada, Utah State, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech

8: Oklahoma, Northwestern, Gonzaga, Nebraska

9: Boise State, Colorado State, TCU, Texas

10: Mississippi State, Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State

11: Villanova, Seton Hall, (St. John’s/Colorado), Indiana State

12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, High Point, Akron

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Stetson)

First Four Out: Drake, Providence, Iowa, Pittsburgh

Next Four Out: South Florida, Memphis, Wake Forest, Richmond

Also Considered: Princeton, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Grand Canyon, Oregon, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, Syracuse

Moving In: Stetson

Moving Out: Eastern Kentucky

Women’s Bracketology 3/4/2024

I was very surprised when the committee put Virginia Tech as their last 1 seed in the top 16 reveal on Thursday. Don’t get me wrong- the Hokies have had a good season. I would’ve thought that UCLA or Texas would’ve gotten that spot. It doesn’t matter now because Virginia Tech is 0-2 since the reveal and falls all the way to a 3 seed in this update.

1: South Carolina, Stanford, Ohio State, UCLA

2: Iowa, Texas, USC, LSU

3: Virginia Tech, Connecticut, NC State, Indiana

4: Notre Dame, Oregon State, Colorado, Gonzaga

5: Oklahoma, Utah, Creighton, Kansas State

6: Baylor, Syracuse, Louisville, UNLV

7: West Virginia, Michigan State, Nebraska, Duke

8: Alabama, Marquette, Princeton, Ole Miss

9: North Carolina, Iowa State, Tennessee, Washington State

10: Kansas, Florida State, Penn State, Mississippi State

11: Maryland, (Vanderbilt/Columbia), Richmond, (Villanova/Michigan)

12: Middle Tennessee, Green Bay, Florida Gulf Coast, South Dakota State

13: Fairfield, Drake, Toledo, Stony Brook

14: Eastern Washington, Marshall, North Texas, Jackson State

15: Chattanooga, Norfolk State, California Baptist, Lamar

16: Maine, Hawai’i, (Sacred Heart/Boston University), (High Point/UT-Martin)

First Four Out: Miami (FL), Texas A&M, Auburn, Middle Tennessee

Next Four Out: Arizona, Green Bay, California, Washington

Men’s Bracketology 3/4/2024

Memphis was left for dead a few weeks ago but is making a charge back towards the field. They need to win at FAU on Sunday to have a chance, but if they can pull that off they’ll go into the AAC tournament right on the bubble.

1: Purdue, Houston, Connecticut, Tennessee

2: Arizona, North Carolina, Marquette, Iowa State

3: Kansas, Creighton, Baylor, Duke

4: Illinois, Alabama, San Diego State, Clemson

5: Kentucky, BYU, Auburn, Washington State

6: South Carolina, Dayton, Wisconsin, Utah State

7: St. Mary’s, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas Tech

8: Northwestern, Florida, Boise State, Gonzaga

9: Nebraska, Texas, Colorado State, TCU

10: Mississippi State, Virginia, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State

11: Villanova, Seton Hall, Indiana State, (St. John’s/Colorado)

12: (New Mexico/Utah), James Madison, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Louisiana Tech, Akron, High Point

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, South Dakota State, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Grambling State/Eastern Kentucky)

First Four Out: Drake, Wake Forest, Providence, Iowa

Next Four Out: Pittsburgh, South Florida, Memphis, Richmond

Also Considered: Princeton, Ole Miss, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Grand Canyon, Oregon, McNeese State

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None

Bracketology 3/3/2024

The bubble got a bit murkier yesterday with some of my last few teams in the field (Wake Forest, Providence, New Mexico) losing. I’ve moved the Demon Deacons and the Friars out of the field, and St. John’s and Colorado replace them.

At the top of the bracket, Tennessee is a 1 seed for the first time all year after their win at Alabama. I think the last 1 seed is the Vols’ to lose now, but Arizona and North Carolina are both very much in play for it.

Bracketology 3/2/2024

I feel quite good about the first 66 teams in my bracket. Unfortunately I have no clue what to do with the last 2 spots. For now, I have given them to Villanova (despite a 2-3 record in Q3) and Utah (despite an 8-10 record in Q1 and Q2 and playing horrible basketball since Christmas). The first 10 teams out of the field all have their chances to climb into the bracket in the next two weeks and those final spots are very much up for grabs.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona

2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Marquette, Kansas

3: Iowa State, Creighton, Baylor, Duke

4: Alabama, San Diego State, Kentucky, Auburn

5: Clemson, Illinois, South Carolina, BYU

6: Wisconsin, Florida, St. Mary’s, Washington State

7: Utah State, Dayton, Nevada, Boise State

8: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic, TCU

9: Colorado State, Texas, Michigan State, Northwestern

10: Nebraska, Mississippi State, Virginia, Gonzaga

11: Seton Hall, Providence, James Madison, (New Mexico/Wake Forest)

12: (Villanova/Utah), Indiana State, Princeton, Grand Canyon

13: McNeese State, Samford, Vermont, UC Irvine

14: Charleston, Akron, High Point, Louisiana Tech

15: Morehead State, Eastern Washington, Colgate, Oakland

16: Quinnipiac, Norfolk State, (Merrimack/Eastern Kentucky), (Grambling State/North Dakota)

First Four Out: St. John’s, Colorado, Texas A&M, Indiana State

Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Princeton, Iowa, Grand Canyon

Also Considered: South Florida, Syracuse, Ohio State, Butler, McNeese State, Drake, Oregon, Pittsburgh

Moving In: Utah

Moving Out: Texas A&M

Bracketology 2/26/2024

After some strong performances in recent weeks, it was a disastrous weekend on the bubble as 8 of my first 10 teams out of the field lost on Saturday. This led to Villanova actually climbing into the field despite a loss, as they took Ole Miss’ spot after the Rebels lost at home to South Carolina.

There were some beneficiaries to the bubble chaos over the weekend- James Madison’s at-large chances looked dead after their third loss in conference play but I have them as an 11 seed after their 8th win in a row. Colorado is also much closer to the field than they have been after a big win over Utah.

Bracketology 2/24/2024

Washington State is the big winner of the last two days as they picked up one of the best wins of the season on the road at Arizona. The Cougars have vaulted all the way up to a 5 seed and are a lock for their first tournament appearance since 2008.

1: Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, Arizona

2: North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Marquette

3: Alabama, Iowa State, Duke, Creighton

4: Baylor, Auburn, San Diego State, Wisconsin

5: Clemson, Illinois, Washington State, Texas Tech

6: BYU, Dayton, South Carolina, Florida

7: Utah State, Florida Atlantic, Kentucky, Colorado State

8: St. Mary’s, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Boise State

9: TCU, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico

10: Texas, Nebraska, Northwestern, Providence

11: Mississippi State, Ole Miss, (Gonzaga/Texas A&M), (Seton Hall/Wake Forest)

12: Grand Canyon, James Madison, Indiana State, Princeton

13: McNeese State, Samford, UC Irvine, Vermont

14: Akron, Louisiana Tech, Quinnipiac, High Point

15: Charleston, Colgate, Eastern Washington, Morehead State

16: Oakland, Southern, (Norfolk State/Merrimack), (Eastern Kentucky/North Dakota)

First Four Out: Villanova, Butler, Utah, Indiana State

Next Four Out: Princeton, Drake, McNeese State, Colorado

Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Iowa, Cincinnati, Oregon, St. John’s, Syracuse, South Florida, Rutgers

Moving In: None

Moving Out: None