Men’s Bracketology 3/12/2026

It was an awful day on the bubble as my last two teams in (SMU, Texas) and my first two teams out (Indiana, Cincinnati) all lost. Auburn and Oklahoma were the only bubble teams who won yesterday.

There are really not many teams who can play their way into the field at this point. Of the teams that are outside my field who are still alive in their conference tournaments, only Oklahoma can really play their way in. Seton Hall is too far back and probably needs wins over both St. John’s and UConn (at which point they’d have the auto-bid anyways). Similarly, New Mexico and San Diego State are both reasonably far back and probably need to beat the other one and win again after that (at which point they’d also have the auto-bid anyways). There’s some chance that New Mexico could get in with a win over SDSU and a loss in the Mountain West title game but I wouldn’t bank on it.

That means that the biggest factor we have left in determining the bubble is the number of bid stealers we get. The A-10, MAC and Mountain West are all more likely than not to produce a bid thief. We also have an outside chance of getting one in the Big East or ACC. My best guess is that we get 2, which for now would knock out SMU and Texas.

1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida

2: Connecticut, Houston, Michigan State, Illinois

3: Iowa State, Purdue, Alabama, Nebraska

4: Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Kansas, Virginia

5: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, St. John’s, Tennessee

6: North Carolina, Wisconsin, Louisville, BYU

7: St. Mary’s, Miami (FL), Kentucky, UCLA

8: Georgia, Villanova, Utah State, Clemson

9: Ohio State, TCU, Texas A&M, Iowa

10: UCF, Saint Louis, NC State, Santa Clara

11: Miami (OH), Missouri, (VCU/Auburn), (SMU/Texas)

12: South Florida, Yale, McNeese, High Point

13: Northern Iowa, Utah Valley, Hofstra, Sam Houston State

14: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Troy, Wright State

15: Tennessee State, UMBC, Furman, Queens

16: Idaho, Siena, (LIU/Howard), (Lehigh/Prairie View A&M)

First Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech

Also Considered: Indiana, San Diego State, Stanford, Seton Hall, California, Oklahoma State

Bids by Conference:

SEC: 11

Big 10: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 8

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3

Atlantic 10: 2