Men’s Bracketology 3/13/2026
The bubble has officially shrunk by a spot as Miami (OH)’s loss to UMass opens the door for a 2 bid MAC. Texas is the casualty of that for now. The committee has talked a big game about being more metric-focused, and I don’t think a team with a resume average of 52 is going to get the benefit of the doubt if they’re on the cut line.
I still expect another bid stealer, perhaps two. The Mountain West is quite likely to produce a bid thief (I’m counting New Mexico and San Diego State as bid thieves), and the A-10 and Big East both have decent shots as well. Even Ole Miss lurks in the SEC.
The bubble is mostly done playing. VCU and Oklahoma are the main notable exceptions. An Oklahoma win today would make things very interesting for the Sooners, but I want to avoid falling for the same trap I fell for with Texas A&M in 2022 where a team goes on a late run in the conference tournament out of nowhere, just to be a surprise exclusion from the field.
1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida
2: Connecticut, Houston, Michigan State, Iowa State
3: Illinois, Purdue, Alabama, Nebraska
4: Gonzaga, Kansas, Virginia, Texas Tech
5: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, St. John’s, Tennessee
6: Wisconsin, North Carolina, Louisville, BYU
7: St. Mary’s, Miami (FL), Kentucky, Clemson
8: UCLA, Utah State, Georgia, Ohio State
9: Villanova, TCU, Iowa, UCF
10: Texas A&M, Saint Louis, NC State, Santa Clara
11: Missouri, (VCU/SMU), (Miami (OH)/Auburn), South Florida
12: Akron, Yale, McNeese, High Point
13: Northern Iowa, Utah Valley, Hofstra, Sam Houston State
14: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Troy, Wright State
15: Tennessee State, UMBC, Furman, Queens
16: Idaho, Siena, (LIU/Howard), (Lehigh/Prairie View A&M)
First Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech
Also Considered: Indiana, San Diego State, Stanford, Seton Hall, California, Oklahoma State
Moving In: Akron
Moving Out: Texas
Bids by Conference:
SEC: 10
Big 10: 9
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 3
West Coast: 3
Atlantic 10: 2
Mid-American: 2