Bracketology Bets 2/23/2026

Indiana to miss the tournament +425 (1 unit)

Indiana is in the field for now, but after an 0-2 week, they’re getting close to the cut line. Their predictive average is strong at 33.7, but their resume average of 46.3 indicates they should be right on the cut line. They close with two easy games at home against Northwestern and Minnesota, and two tough games (home against Michigan State, at Ohio State). A 2-2 finish is a net negative for them and would put them right on the cutline, a 3-1 finish puts them in great shape and a 1-3 finish puts them is very bad shape. I think this should be +280 or so and there’s some value at +425.