Men’s Bracketology 2/25/2026

The biggest bubble loser of the night was Indiana. The Hoosiers had a pretty clean profile with no losses outside of Q1. After a home loss to Northwestern (their 6th straight to the Wildcats!), they’ve picked up a Q3 loss. Add it on to their 2-10 Q1 record and resume average of 52, and it’s getting dicey.

The fact that I still have them in the tournament is more a statement of “the computers like them, so they’ll probably do just enough down the stretch to get in” than “they’re in the field of the season ended right now”. Plus, my other options were USC (outside the top 50 in resume and predictive metrics) and New Mexico (similar resume metrics to Indiana, worse predictives).

Bubble winners included TCU and UCLA. UCF and Miami are also locks after their wins last night.

1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut

2: Purdue, Iowa State, Illinois, Houston

3: Florida, Nebraska, Gonzaga, Kansas

4: Texas Tech, Virginia, Michigan State, Alabama

5: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, St. John’s, Tennessee

6: North Carolina, BYU, Wisconsin, Louisville

7: Villanova, Utah State, Iowa, Kentucky

8: NC State, UCF, Miami (FL), St. Mary’s

9: SMU, Saint Louis, Georgia, Texas A&M

10: Clemson, Missouri, Miami (OH), UCLA

11: Texas, Santa Clara, (Auburn/Ohio State), (TCU/Indiana)

12: Belmont, Yale, South Florida, McNeese

13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist

14: Austin Peay, North Dakota State, Hawai’i, East Tennessee State

15: Merrimack, Navy, Troy, Portland State

16: Wright State, UMBC, (UT Martin/Bethune-Cookman), (LIU/Howard)

First Four Out: New Mexico, USC, VCU, California

Next Four Out: San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Nevada, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

Moving In; TCU

Moving Out: New Mexico

Bids by Conference:

SEC: 11

Big Ten: 10

ACC: 8

Big 12: 8

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3