Men’s Bracketology 2/28/2026

I had a really tough time figuring out the 2 through 4 lines in this update. The 5th place team in WAB (Michigan State) and the 11th place team (Florida) are separated by 0.3 WAB, which is practically nothing. With resumes so similar around there, I moved Florida all the way up from 9 overall to 5 overall thanks to their dominant predictive metrics.

On the bubble, Cal moves in after their win over SMU, while Ohio State falls out. The bubble picture should be a good bit clearer after this weekend.

1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Connecticut

2: Florida, Iowa State, Purdue, Houston

3: Illinois, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan State

4: Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Virginia, Alabama

5: Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, North Carolina

6: St. John’s, BYU, Louisville, Iowa

7: Villanova, Utah State, NC State, Wisconsin

8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, Saint Louis, UCF

9: SMU, Miami (FL), Clemson, Texas A&M

10: Georgia, UCLA, Missouri, Miami (OH)

11: Auburn, Santa Clara, (Texas/TCU), (Indiana/California)

12: Belmont, Yale, South Florida, McNeese

13: Liberty, UNC Wilmington, High Point, Cal Baptist

14: Austin Peay, North Dakota State, Hawai’i, East Tennessee State

15: Merrimack, Navy, Troy, Portland State

16: Wright State, UMBC, (UT Martin/Bethune-Cookman), (LIU/Howard)

First Four Out: New Mexico, Ohio State, VCU, San Diego State

Next Six Out: USC, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, Nevada, Oklahoma State, West Virginia

Moving In; California

Moving Out: Ohio State

Bids by Conference:

SEC: 11

Big Ten: 9

ACC: 9

Big 12: 8

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3