Men’s Bracketology 3/9/2026

I just have a seed list today, I’ll be back with a full bracket tomorrow (I’ve been busy- I got married this weekend!)

It was a poor weekend for bubble teams. That keeps teams like Indiana and Virginia Tech, who I thought would be drawing dead with a loss, in the hunt. It also puts Stanford back into contention, who I had pretty much entirely written off.

I am willing to call the first 35 teams on my seed list (Texas A&M on up) as locks. The next six teams (Iowa through Missouri) I’d all give a >90% chance of making the field. The real bubble starts at Santa Clara and ends at Stanford.

It’s worth noting that the bubble is very likely to contract from bid stealers. I think the most likely outcome is that we get two bid stealers this year.

1: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Florida

2: Connecticut, Houston, Michigan State, Illinois

3: Iowa State, Purdue, Alabama, Nebraska

4: Texas Tech, Kansas, Gonzaga, Virginia

5: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, St. John’s, Tennessee

6: North Carolina, Wisconsin, St. Mary’s, Louisville

7: BYU, Kentucky, UCLA, Miami (FL)

8: Georgia, Villanova, Utah State, Clemson

9: Ohio State, TCU, Texas A&M, Iowa

10: Saint Louis, NC State, UCF, Miami (OH)

11: Missouri, Santa Clara, (VCU/Auburn), (Texas/SMU)

12: South Florida, Yale, McNeese, High Point

13: Northern Iowa, Liberty, Utah Valley, Hofstra

14: North Dakota State, UC Irvine, Troy, East Tennessee State

15: Wright State, Merrimack, Portland State, Tennessee State

16: UMBC, Queens, LIU, Bethune Cookman, Howard, Boston University

First Four Out: Indiana, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: San Diego State, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Seton Hall

Bids by Conference:

SEC: 11

Big 10: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 8

Big East: 3

West Coast: 3

Atlantic 10: 2

Moving In: Boston University, Northern Iowa, Hofstra

Moving Out: Navy, Belmont, UNC Wilmington