College Football Playoff Picture- Week 13 2025

Intro

Once again, the chalk held last week. That leaves us in a pretty interesting situation headed into Rivalry Week. If all the favorites win, the playoff will be very simple- the current top 10 of the playoff rankings get in, plus the ACC and American champions.

If we have at least one upset, things change. Suppose Michigan beats Ohio State- who gets the last spot between them and Notre Dame? Suppose all the favorites win, except Auburn beats Alabama. Who gets the last spot in the field- Vanderbilt? Miami? Utah? My guess is Vanderbilt, but we’ll see.

Here’s my expected ranking of potential at-large playoff resumes, along with my expected chance that that resume makes it into the field, if it happens. To be clear- not all of these things will happen. For example, this should be read as “if a 10-2 Vanderbilt team ends up happening, they’d have a 40% chance of getting in the playoff, and they’d be below these other teams in the pecking order”

Indiana, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Georgia: 100%

10-2 Alabama: 100%

11-1 Ole Miss: 100%

11-1 Oregon: 100%

10-2 Oklahoma: 100%

10-2 Michigan: 90%

10-2 Notre Dame: 87%

10-2 Ole Miss: 80%

11-2 Texas Tech (Big 12 title game loser): 70%

10-2 Oregon: 60%

10-2 Vanderbilt: 40%

10-2 Miami: 20%

10-2 Utah: 10%

10-2 Texas Tech (loses to West Virginia): 9%

11-2 BYU (Big 12 title game loser): 8%

9-3 Texas: 7%

9-3 Alabama: 5%

9-3 Oklahoma: 3%

There’s some uncertainty in these rankings for me- particularly around 10-2 Ole Miss, 11-2 Texas Tech and 10-2 Oregon. But other than that, I feel pretty decent about this stack rank.

SEC

Georgia and Texas A&M are in no matter what.

Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Alabama are all in with a win.

As I detail above, I think Ole Miss is going to be OK even with a loss, but I’m not certain- the market doesn’t agree with me, Ole Miss’ odds to make the playoff have tumbled -2000 to -400 without playing a game. That line implies that Ole Miss is probably out if they lose to Mississippi State- which I’d be pretty surprised by.

Oklahoma and Alabama are almost certainly out with a loss. If a lot of chaos happens, they could find their way in.

Vanderbilt is maybe the most interesting team left on the board to me. They obviously need to beat Tennessee- but I am very unsure of whether that would be enough for them. They should be rooting for LSU, Auburn and Ohio State.

Texas has a chance if they beat Texas A&M and get a lot of help elsewhere.

Big Ten

Indiana and Ohio State are fine no matter what.

Oregon is in with a win, and will be in the conversation for a bye. I think Oregon is OK with a loss- but I only give them a 60% shot at a bid. They’re certainly rooting for Ohio State.

Enough chalk has held that I don’t think Michigan is a stone cold lock even if they beat Ohio State. I think they’re probably fine- but one upset somewhere else would help them feel better.

ACC + Notre Dame

The worst case scenario for Notre Dame is that Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon and Michigan all win. I think Notre Dame is on the outside looking in in that scenario- but I’m not certain.

SMU or Virginia will probably win the ACC- but Miami, Pitt and Georgia Tech have a chance. Duke also has a chance, but isn’t seen here, because in the 4% or so chance they win the ACC, they wouldn’t get in to the playoff (James Madison would in their place).

Miami is an interesting at-large case. It was good for the ‘Canes that they jumped Utah this week. The most likely outcome is that they beat Pitt but don’t make the ACC title game. If that happens, they’re going to need help from somewhere (Auburn? LSU?) and maybe two pieces of help.

Big 12

Last week was really bad for Utah. Their chance to win the Big 12 mostly evaporated when BYU beat Cincinnati. Their at-large chance mostly evaporated when they got jumped by Miami. They still have a faint at-large chance, but they need a lot of things to go right.

I remain bearish on Texas Tech’s at-large chances if they pick up a loss, at least relative to the market. Texas Tech to miss playoff is +2200 now, which I quite like- I think that in the logjam scenario where Oklahoma/Alabama/Ole Miss/Oregon all win, an 11-2 Texas Tech is conceivably left out.

BYU’s at-large chance are nil but they control their own destiny in the Big 12. Arizona State is on here because they control their own destiny in the Big 12, but they need quite a lot of help.

Group of Five

North Texas and Tulane will square off for the American title game if they both win this weekend. If either lose, that opens up the door for Navy (not pictured here, since they’d have to win two games they’d be a significant underdog in, and get help), or South Florida, in the American.

James Madison has two routes in. In either route, they have to win out, but they’ll probably do that. First, they can have both North Texas and Tulane slip up. Second, they can have Duke win the ACC. Both are unlikely, but not impossible.

Race for the Byes

Most of the discussion of the playoff has focused on who’s getting in. It’s also worth discussing who is going to get byes, and who is going to host.

I think that if Indiana and Ohio State win this weekend, they are locks for byes no matter what happens in the Big Ten title game. That would leave 2 spots- one for the SEC winner, and the other is up for grabs. Some contenders include:

-The SEC title game loser, especially if that team is a previously undefeated Texas A&M

-Texas A&M, who lost to Texas and missed the SEC title game

-Georgia, if they beat Georgia Tech but fail to make the SEC title game.

-Texas Tech, if they win out

-Oregon, if they beat Washington

I’d put my money on Georgia, if I had to pick. But I’m really not certain.

Race to Host

Four teams will get byes, and the next four teams in the rankings will host playoff games. This is tougher to prognosticate, because teams can slip out of this range both by moving into the hosting group, and also by moving into the 9-12 group where they’d have to go on the road.

If I had to pick the team most likely to finish in the 5-8 range that would lead to hosting a playoff game, it would be Ole Miss (assuming they win this weekend). Oregon and Georgia will be in the conversation here as well. If chalk holds, the last hosting spot will be between Alabama, Oklahoma and Notre Dame- I think it would go to Oklahoma.

Most Likely Playoff

If we add it all together, I think that the most likely playoff bracket. This assumes that the projected favorite wins every single game over the rest of the season.

1 Ohio State vs. 8 Oklahoma/9 Notre Dame- Rose Bowl

2 Texas A&M vs. 7 Ole Miss/10 Alabama- Sugar Bowl

3 Indiana vs. 6 Oregon/11 SMU- Cotton Bowl

4 Georgia vs. 5 Texas Tech/12 North Texas- Orange Bowl

I don’t love some of these matchups. I’d rather not see an Alabama/Ole Miss conference matchup in the first round. But it might be unavoidable.