Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 ACC Preview

I intended to write longer conference previews this season but ran out of time before the season started. Instead, I’ll just be sharing some key numbers from my model, as well as a note or two about each team.

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Talent Score- My model’s estimate of the total talent on the roster. 0 is FBS average. Note that this weighs high school recruiting higher and portal talent lower than you might expect, but I have found this to be most predictive in the long run.

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Clemson- A legitimate national title contender for the first time since 2020. Klubnik is one of the best QBs in the sport. Their D-line is the best in the sport and it’s not close. Dabo is finally using the portal, at least a little bit.

Miami- I’m a lot more bearish than my model. The recruiting stars are clearly there, but I don’t trust either Cristobal or Beck. It’s hard to imagine them getting better after losing Cam Ward.

Louisville- I’m more bullish than my model. I love the skill position talent here, Isaac Brown and Caullin Lacy are stars. They’ve lost a ton of close games in recent years and that is bound to turn around eventually. Early schedule is light.

Georgia Tech- Best I’ve felt about the Yellow Jackets since Paul Johnson was in charge. Brent Key is an offensive lineman at heart and you can tell from his team. If Haynes King can stay healthy, this is a dark horse playoff contender.

Virginia Tech- They’ve lost a million close games. That should turn around at some point- but if it doesn’t, Brent Pry is out of a job. It’s been a decade since Beamer and VT is in danger of permanent irrelevance.

NC State- A better team than you’d expect, that won’t challenge for the ACC because they’ll lose a stupid game or two somewhere. Losing KC Concepcion shows they don’t have the money to compete with the big boys.

SMU- My model hates them because there is no track record of teams with so much bad recent history sustaining success. They better hope they get the Kevin Jennings we saw most of the season, and not the one we saw against Penn State.

Boston College- They continue to be the most anonymous team in the P4. Not good enough to contend for anything, but they won’t embarrass you either.

Duke- I’m more bullish than my model, because I don’t think it understands how good Mensah is. Last year’s record was smoke and mirrors, but I am extremely bullish on the long term forecast here under Manny Diaz.

North Carolina- Belichick will certainly have some talent at his disposal. It’s a weird combination of pieces, a lot of them through the portal. Neither 3 wins nor 9 wins would shock me.

Florida State- It’s hard to argue last year was a blip given how bad 2017-2021 was. I am shocked they couldn’t do better at QB than Castellanos in the portal, he’s got some talent but is a turnover machine.

Pittsburgh- I’m more bullish than my model thanks to what looks like a vintage Narduzzi defense. This is going to be an Iowa-style team that bludgeons you to death.

Stanford- My model loves Stanford this year, many others have them near the bottom of the P4. The talent is not that bad with a peppering of four stars throughout the roster. Frank Reich is a good coach and will get the most out of them.

Syracuse- A clear step back from last year, but the long term outlook is very strong. They face an absolutely brutal schedule, one of the toughest in the country. I think Steve Angeli was a great QB pickup in the portal.

California- Completely picked apart in the portal. The QB situation is intriguing though- two guys with a lot of recruiting stars are competing for the job. Looks like the last year for Wilcox before Ron Rivera installs his guy.

Virginia- One of the least talented rosters in the P4. The good news is the schedule couldn’t be easier. I like Chandler Morris as a bridge QB. If they don’t bowl this year, it’s probably curtains for Tony Elliott.
Wake Forest- I like the Jake Dickert hire, but year 1 will be tough. Bringing some players from Wazzu will smooth the transition. It’s comical that Robby Ashford is the starting QB for a P4 program.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 Big Ten Preview

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Ohio State- There is so much high end talent on this roster that I have to keep them number one. Jeremiah Smith is the best offensive player in the country and Caleb Downs is the best defensive player.

Penn State- Highest floor team in the country. Would be shocked if they are not top 8 or so. The best RB room in the country and some of the best lines as well. Still waiting for them to beat one of the bluebloods, or prove that Drew Allar has an extra gear.

Oregon- Dante Moore sucked at UCLA, but he was playing behind an awful offensive line. My model is not a fan of them, due to inexperience at QB and a relatively portal-heavy strategy compared to the other big boys.

Michigan- If Underwood is everything he’s cracked up to be, this is a playoff team. He is still a true freshman though and I expect early growing pains in the Oklahoma game. This defense with Wink at the helm should stymie even the best offenses.

Indiana- They won’t win 11 games again, but they’re not crashing down to earth either. I saw a lot of Mendoza last year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a first round pick in April. The fact that Indiana could afford him shows they’re willing to splash the cash.

Minnesota- The classic Big Ten West team that will play physical and run the ball well. The ceiling is capped but the floor is high as well. No one remembers how good they were last year because they lost close games.

Illinois- It’s a complete farce that they’re 12th in the AP Poll. This was a mediocre team last year that lucked their way into 10 wins. Will probably be betting against them early and often.

Nebraska- Raiola should take a step forward in year 2. They’re not where they want to be, but Matt Rhule has taken them out of the depths they had fallen to. Schedule is light- will be significant favorites in all games except Michigan until Halloween.

USC- I disagree with my model here- I’m more bullish. Skill position talent is top 10 in the country. The big question- is Maiava the QB because Lincoln Riley developed him, or because USC was too broke to afford anyone else?

Rutgers- No one does it quite like Schiano. They are a physical team with a great O-line, and no one wants to play them. The QB situation is bleak, but they’ll still find 6 wins.

Iowa- Maybe the biggest disagreement between my gut and my model in the whole country. A mobile QB who lit it up at the FCS level behind an Iowa offensive line? Sign me up.

Wisconsin- Hardest schedule in the country and it’s not close. They strayed far from their roots and paid the price. Now they don’t have the Wisconsin-style roster you’d expect.

Michigan State- A pretty high variance team- it will depend a lot on Aidan Chiles. He’s as boom-or-bust as it gets. They have good pieces here and there but the overall talent level is underwhelming. It’s a coin toss as to whether they get to a bowl.

Washington- Demond Williams is an exciting young QB, but they lose a lot elsewhere. Nearly all the contributors from the 2023 squad are gone and the recent recruiting has been a lot worse than you’d expect.

UCLA- The lack of talent outside Nico is embarrassing. They are in Los Angeles and are near the bottom of the conference in recent recruiting. Feels like Lynn is a bridge coach until they can make a proper Big Ten hire.

Maryland- This is going to be pretty rough- I’m even more bearish than my model. Not really sure what the plan is here long-term, this program has been floating in the ether since moving to the conference.

Northwestern- Still trying to figure out what they are in the post-Pat Fitzgerald world. I’m excited about Preston Stone at QB but he doesn’t have much to work with.

Purdue- They were apocalyptically bad last year. One of the worst power conference teams of the decade. They’ll be better this year, but it would be testing the laws of physics to be worse.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 SEC Preview

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Alabama- My preseason SEC favorite, even if others disagree. Still one of the most talented teams in the sport thanks to pulling in top 5 classes for many years in a row. My model is excited about Ty Simpson, but more excited about Ryan Williams.

Texas A&M- One of my big surprise teams for the year. Mike Elko is a fantastic coach and has a top ten roster in the country. Marcel Reed is in year two and behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.

Georgia- I expect them to be closer to 2024 Georgia than 2021-2023 Georgia. Somewhat amazed a team with as many resources as UGA has ended up with such a poor QB situation- I expect Gunner Stockton to be a bottom half of the SEC QB.

Oklahoma- Along with A&M, my other big surprise team in the SEC. This is going to be a vintage Brent Venables defense and I love the addition of John Mateer at QB. Schedule is brutal- they could be a top 10 team by quality and go 8-4.

Texas- My hottest preseason take is hating Texas. The Longhorns lose so much outside of the QB position, a dozen draft picks are gone. Arch will be very good, but he’s not the surefire lock for “best QB in the sport” that everyone thinks.

Auburn- They went 5-7 despite finishing 14th in my model last year. Surely they can’t lose every close game again. One of the best WR corps in the nation. A darkhorse playoff pick.

LSU- I like them, but not at the top 5 or top 8 level that some other people seem to. A lot of variance here- if Nussmeier is what he’s cracked up to be, they’re a playoff team. The September schedule is brutal- a slow start could see the team quit on Brian Kelly.

Florida- They’re a very good team but the schedule is brutal. DJ Lagway is a clear top 5 QB in the country, and both lines will be excellent. With the right breaks, they could be in the playoff.

Tennessee- Not a fan this year. It’s not just that they lost Nico, this team was not particularly good last year and was lucky to go 10-2. One of the easiest schedules in the SEC will keep them higher in the standings than they should be.

South Carolina- I love LaNorris Sellers. The schedule is absolutely brutal though- you can tell from the fact I have them 18th but projected for only 6.9 wins. They will be about as good as last year and finish with fewer wins.

Ole Miss- Ole Miss to miss the playoff at -175 felt like highway robbery. Kiffin was a year ahead of his peers on the portal, but that advantage is now gone. With Jaxson Dart gone, this team will regress. They missed their window.

Arkansas- Scheduling Memphis and Notre Dame when you already play 8 SEC games makes no sense to me. It’s almost like they want to give Pittman no chance. They’ll beat someone they shouldn’t and still go 6-6.

Missouri- Everyone knows they were worse than their record last year. Still, 21 years in two wins is extremely impressive given their resources relative to the rest of the league. Not a fan of the QB situation.

Kentucky- Calzada intrigues me at QB. But it does seem things are turning for the worse at Kentucky- it hasn’t been the same since Stoops’ dalliance with the Texas A&M job.

Mississippi State- Pretty brutal that they lost Van Buren (just to be a backup at LSU) after he showed promise down the stretch last year. This was the clear worst team in the conference last year, and they’ll get better but still likely finish last.

Ravi Betzig 8/22/25 Ravi Betzig 8/22/25

2025 CFB Playoff Predictions

Week Zero starts tomorrow, and that means it’s time for some more preseason CFB content. Today I’ll take a look at some teams’ chances to make the playoff. I spent a lot of time in the offseason building a robust model to predict the playoff, and I feel pretty good about where I ended up. All of the below probabilities are calculated by simulating the season 10,000 times using my preseason ratings.

There’s a clear top tier here- Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Clemson and Alabama. Unsurprisingly, these are also the top five teams in my preseason ratings. The big difference between my model and the AP poll here is Alabama. The Crimson Tide are my favorites to win the SEC, but are all the way down at 8th in the AP poll. I got Alabama at +500 to win the SEC back in May, that line is more like +350 or +400 now depending on where you look.

The second row of teams is an interesting bunch. I’m much lower on Oregon than the consensus (I have Oregon to miss the playoff +220) as well as Georgia (I have them to miss the playoff +198). Miami, on the other hand, is the rare team that I personally disagree with my model on- the Hurricanes have a lot of talet up and down the roster, but I am pretty bearish on Carson Beck at QB.

In the third row, I have to talk about Texas. The Longhorns are preseason number 1 in the AP poll, but my model gives them only a 28% chance at the playoff. I’ll admit this is too low, but I’m still quite bearish on Texas. If you’ve been following my offseason picks, you know I’ve been betting against the Longhorns at every opportunity. They come in 9th in my preseason ratings, but the killer schedule drops them down to 14th in terms of playoff odds.

The bottom two rows are a mix of teams who are in the back end of the AP poll (Tennessee, Kansas State, Indiana) and unranked teams that I am bullish on (Auburn, Louisville, Georgia Tech).

I think that the gap between Boise State and the rest of the G5 is quite large. I bet Boise State to make the playoff +285 back in May and the rest of the market clearly agrees- it’s about +185 now. The Broncos will face one of their toughest tests of the season in Week 1 when they travel to USF- the Bulls are my 6th rated G5 team.

It’s worth pointing out that there’s still a pretty big chance of someone surprising coming out of the G5 to make the playoff this year. There’s a 40% chance that someone either than Boise State or Tulane makes it in from the G5 this year, and a 10% chance that some team outside this graphic makes it in.

Ravi Betzig 6/11/25 Ravi Betzig 6/11/25

2025 CFB Playoff Preview

Methodology

Longtime readers of my blog will know that my favorite picks I make all year are my preseason college football bets. Over the last month, I have posted lots of bets on win totals, odds to win the conference, etc.

Last week the major sportsbooks posted odds to make the CFP for the first time this offseason. I was super excited for this, as these were my most profitable bets last year. If you were following my picks last year I’m sure you remember when I picked Indiana to make the playoff at 30/1 odds in September. The 12-team CFP is so new that I think a lot of people struggle to properly model it, leaving some nice opportunities.

To prepare for this, I spent some time this offseason developing some logic to simulate the playoff selection process. It’s hard to exactly replicate the logic that a human committee does, but I made my best guess. I won’t bore everyone with the details of how it works here, but if you’re interested in learning some details, feel free to shoot me a DM on Twitter. I’d be interested to discuss this with other people who have tried their hand at this problem.

Later this week I’ll post the bets I like for odds to make/miss the CFP. Today I’ll go through some big picture thoughts on how the playoff will shape up this year.

An Example Simulation

To start, I simulate the regular season 10,000 times. At the end of these simulations, I then guess who I think the committee would pick in that scenario. Here’s an example simulation to give you an idea of how it works.

In this simulation, the auto-bids go to major conference champions Clemson, Texas, Penn State and Kansas State as well as James Madison, who is the best G5 team. The first few at-large spots are quite clear: South Carolina and Michigan went 12-0 in the regular season before losing their conference title game, and Texas A&M went 11-1 but missed the SEC title game.

For the last at-large spots, the model selected the teams that lost the Big 12 and ACC title games (Arizona State and Georgia Tech, respectively) who were each 11-1 prior to that loss. It went with 10-2 Auburn and Tennessee for the last spots, leaving out 10-2 Illinois, SMU, Miami and Louisville. This was on the basis of strength of schedule- when comparing power conference teams with the same record, it goes with the one that played the hardest schedule.

Keep in mind that this is just one simulation, and in different simulations, different teams outperform and underperform expectations. In this particular simulation, South Carolina was one of the best teams in the country (not an impossible scenario given LaNorris Sellers’ upside) and Georgia stumbled to 8-4. In the simulation after this one, Georgia steamrolled everyone and went 13-0. This is why I simulate the season 10,000 times- to capture a wide array of possible outcomes.

Note that I built this logic before auto-byes for conference champions were scrapped. Since I’m just trying to predict selection in the playoff and not seeding, this is fine for now, but I’ll fix it later.

Expected Playoff Bids by Conference

There’s been a lot of discussion as to how many teams each conference can expect in the playoff. Last year’s breakdown was as follows:

Big Ten: 4 (Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Indiana)

SEC: 3 (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee)

ACC: 2 (SMU, Clemson)

Big 12: 1 (Arizona State)

Mountain West: 1 (Boise State)

Independent: 1 (Notre Dame)

My gut feeling last year was that the Big Ten was not going to get 4 teams in most years, and they got lucky there was such a gap between the top four teams in the league and everyone else. Similarly, I think the SEC will probably get more than three teams in a lot of the time.

Based on 10,000 simulations of the playoff, here is the expected number of bids for each conference this year:

SEC: 3.45

Big Ten: 2.98

ACC: 2.01

Big 12: 1.84

Independent (inc. Notre Dame): 0.70

G5 Conferences: 1.02

I think most people would expect the Big 12 and ACC to be lower and the Big Ten and SEC to be higher. We’ll see how it plays out in the future, but I think last year’s ACC and Big 12 had an unusual amount of parity.

Expected Playoff Bids by Record

Alabama nearly got into the playoff with a 9-3 record last year. Do we expect 9-3 SEC teams to make the playoff in the future? Could we ever see an 8-4 team in the playoff?

We can answer these sorts of questions with my 10,000 simulations of the playoff. I have divided teams into different “categories” of resume. Not all teams within a category are created equal (10-2 Ohio State is a shoo-in for the playoff since they play Texas, 10-2 Indiana is unlikely to make it with a weak non-conference schedule), but it serves as a general guide.

After looking at a lot of individual simulations, here are a few general rules I believe in:

Any power conference team with 0 or 1 losses will make the field. Last year’s 11-1 Indiana is about as weak a 1 loss team as you’ll ever see, and they ended up making it in with some room to spare.
11-2 teams in the at-large pool (i.e. teams that go 11-1 in the regular season and lose their conference title game) are a good bet. SMU is an example of such a team from last year. The absolute weakest 11-2 teams might miss the field. For example, a hypothetical 11-2 BYU team that lost the Big 12 title game last year might have been left out.
In most simulations, the last spot is a battle between 10-2 power conference teams. 10-2 teams with stronger schedules (e.g. most SEC teams, a Clemson team that plays LSU and South Carolina out of conference, etc.) are in good shape. 10-2 teams with weaker schedules (e.g. Illinois, NC State) are in bad shape.
About half the simulations feature a 9-3 team in the playoff. Only 9-3 teams that play one of the absolute toughest schedules in the country have any real shot.
8-4 teams have no shot at the playoff.

In the median simulation, we have 14 power conference teams with double digit wins at the end of the regular season. In both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, we had 14 power conference teams with double digit wins at the end of the regular season. This was one of the key metrics that I looked at to tune the simulation and I think is a good sign that it matches reality pretty well.

Simulating the playoff selection process is an interesting problem. I used the results above to inform my bets on teams to make/miss the playoff and I’ll be back later in the week with some of my favorite bets.