2025 Big Ten Preview
I intended to write longer conference previews this season but ran out of time before the season started. Instead, I’ll just be sharing some key numbers from my model, as well as a note or two about each team.
Some definitions of the columns below:
2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model
2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model
Talent Score- My model’s estimate of the total talent on the roster. 0 is FBS average. Note that this weighs high school recruiting higher and portal talent lower than you might expect, but I have found this to be most predictive in the long run.
Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025
Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025
Ohio State- There is so much high end talent on this roster that I have to keep them number one. Jeremiah Smith is the best offensive player in the country and Caleb Downs is the best defensive player.
Penn State- Highest floor team in the country. Would be shocked if they are not top 8 or so. The best RB room in the country and some of the best lines as well. Still waiting for them to beat one of the bluebloods, or prove that Drew Allar has an extra gear.
Oregon- Dante Moore sucked at UCLA, but he was playing behind an awful offensive line. My model is not a fan of them, due to inexperience at QB and a relatively portal-heavy strategy compared to the other big boys.
Michigan- If Underwood is everything he’s cracked up to be, this is a playoff team. He is still a true freshman though and I expect early growing pains in the Oklahoma game. This defense with Wink at the helm should stymie even the best offenses.
Indiana- They won’t win 11 games again, but they’re not crashing down to earth either. I saw a lot of Mendoza last year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a first round pick in April. The fact that Indiana could afford him shows they’re willing to splash the cash.
Minnesota- The classic Big Ten West team that will play physical and run the ball well. The ceiling is capped but the floor is high as well. No one remembers how good they were last year because they lost close games.
Illinois- It’s a complete farce that they’re 12th in the AP Poll. This was a mediocre team last year that lucked their way into 10 wins. Will probably be betting against them early and often.
Nebraska- Raiola should take a step forward in year 2. They’re not where they want to be, but Matt Rhule has taken them out of the depths they had fallen to. Schedule is light- will be significant favorites in all games except Michigan until Halloween.
USC- I disagree with my model here- I’m more bullish. Skill position talent is top 10 in the country. The big question- is Maiava the QB because Lincoln Riley developed him, or because USC was too broke to afford anyone else?
Rutgers- No one does it quite like Schiano. They are a physical team with a great O-line, and no one wants to play them. The QB situation is bleak, but they’ll still find 6 wins.
Iowa- Maybe the biggest disagreement between my gut and my model in the whole country. A mobile QB who lit it up at the FCS level behind an Iowa offensive line? Sign me up.
Wisconsin- Hardest schedule in the country and it’s not close. They strayed far from their roots and paid the price. Now they don’t have the Wisconsin-style roster you’d expect.
Michigan State- A pretty high variance team- it will depend a lot on Aidan Chiles. He’s as boom-or-bust as it gets. They have good pieces here and there but the overall talent level is underwhelming. It’s a coin toss as to whether they get to a bowl.
Washington- Demond Williams is an exciting young QB, but they lose a lot elsewhere. Nearly all the contributors from the 2023 squad are gone and the recent recruiting has been a lot worse than you’d expect.
UCLA- The lack of talent outside Nico is embarrassing. They are in Los Angeles and are near the bottom of the conference in recent recruiting. Feels like Lynn is a bridge coach until they can make a proper Big Ten hire.
Maryland- This is going to be pretty rough- I’m even more bearish than my model. Not really sure what the plan is here long-term, this program has been floating in the ether since moving to the conference.
Northwestern- Still trying to figure out what they are in the post-Pat Fitzgerald world. I’m excited about Preston Stone at QB but he doesn’t have much to work with.
Purdue- They were apocalyptically bad last year. One of the worst power conference teams of the decade. They’ll be better this year, but it would be testing the laws of physics to be worse.