2025 SEC Preview
I intended to write longer conference previews this season but ran out of time before the season started. Instead, I’ll just be sharing some key numbers from my model, as well as a note or two about each team.
Some definitions of the columns below:
2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model
2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model
Talent Score- My model’s estimate of the total talent on the roster. 0 is FBS average. Note that this weighs high school recruiting higher and portal talent lower than you might expect, but I have found this to be most predictive in the long run.
Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025
Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025
Alabama- My preseason SEC favorite, even if others disagree. Still one of the most talented teams in the sport thanks to pulling in top 5 classes for many years in a row. My model is excited about Ty Simpson, but more excited about Ryan Williams.
Texas A&M- One of my big surprise teams for the year. Mike Elko is a fantastic coach and has a top ten roster in the country. Marcel Reed is in year two and behind one of the best offensive lines in the country.
Georgia- I expect them to be closer to 2024 Georgia than 2021-2023 Georgia. Somewhat amazed a team with as many resources as UGA has ended up with such a poor QB situation- I expect Gunner Stockton to be a bottom half of the SEC QB.
Oklahoma- Along with A&M, my other big surprise team in the SEC. This is going to be a vintage Brent Venables defense and I love the addition of John Mateer at QB. Schedule is brutal- they could be a top 10 team by quality and go 8-4.
Texas- My hottest preseason take is hating Texas. The Longhorns lose so much outside of the QB position, a dozen draft picks are gone. Arch will be very good, but he’s not the surefire lock for “best QB in the sport” that everyone thinks.
Auburn- They went 5-7 despite finishing 14th in my model last year. Surely they can’t lose every close game again. One of the best WR corps in the nation. A darkhorse playoff pick.
LSU- I like them, but not at the top 5 or top 8 level that some other people seem to. A lot of variance here- if Nussmeier is what he’s cracked up to be, they’re a playoff team. The September schedule is brutal- a slow start could see the team quit on Brian Kelly.
Florida- They’re a very good team but the schedule is brutal. DJ Lagway is a clear top 5 QB in the country, and both lines will be excellent. With the right breaks, they could be in the playoff.
Tennessee- Not a fan this year. It’s not just that they lost Nico, this team was not particularly good last year and was lucky to go 10-2. One of the easiest schedules in the SEC will keep them higher in the standings than they should be.
South Carolina- I love LaNorris Sellers. The schedule is absolutely brutal though- you can tell from the fact I have them 18th but projected for only 6.9 wins. They will be about as good as last year and finish with fewer wins.
Ole Miss- Ole Miss to miss the playoff at -175 felt like highway robbery. Kiffin was a year ahead of his peers on the portal, but that advantage is now gone. With Jaxson Dart gone, this team will regress. They missed their window.
Arkansas- Scheduling Memphis and Notre Dame when you already play 8 SEC games makes no sense to me. It’s almost like they want to give Pittman no chance. They’ll beat someone they shouldn’t and still go 6-6.
Missouri- Everyone knows they were worse than their record last year. Still, 21 years in two wins is extremely impressive given their resources relative to the rest of the league. Not a fan of the QB situation.
Kentucky- Calzada intrigues me at QB. But it does seem things are turning for the worse at Kentucky- it hasn’t been the same since Stoops’ dalliance with the Texas A&M job.
Mississippi State- Pretty brutal that they lost Van Buren (just to be a backup at LSU) after he showed promise down the stretch last year. This was the clear worst team in the conference last year, and they’ll get better but still likely finish last.