2025 CFB Playoff Predictions
Week Zero starts tomorrow, and that means it’s time for some more preseason CFB content. Today I’ll take a look at some teams’ chances to make the playoff. I spent a lot of time in the offseason building a robust model to predict the playoff, and I feel pretty good about where I ended up. All of the below probabilities are calculated by simulating the season 10,000 times using my preseason ratings.
There’s a clear top tier here- Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Clemson and Alabama. Unsurprisingly, these are also the top five teams in my preseason ratings. The big difference between my model and the AP poll here is Alabama. The Crimson Tide are my favorites to win the SEC, but are all the way down at 8th in the AP poll. I got Alabama at +500 to win the SEC back in May, that line is more like +350 or +400 now depending on where you look.
The second row of teams is an interesting bunch. I’m much lower on Oregon than the consensus (I have Oregon to miss the playoff +220) as well as Georgia (I have them to miss the playoff +198). Miami, on the other hand, is the rare team that I personally disagree with my model on- the Hurricanes have a lot of talet up and down the roster, but I am pretty bearish on Carson Beck at QB.
In the third row, I have to talk about Texas. The Longhorns are preseason number 1 in the AP poll, but my model gives them only a 28% chance at the playoff. I’ll admit this is too low, but I’m still quite bearish on Texas. If you’ve been following my offseason picks, you know I’ve been betting against the Longhorns at every opportunity. They come in 9th in my preseason ratings, but the killer schedule drops them down to 14th in terms of playoff odds.
The bottom two rows are a mix of teams who are in the back end of the AP poll (Tennessee, Kansas State, Indiana) and unranked teams that I am bullish on (Auburn, Louisville, Georgia Tech).
I think that the gap between Boise State and the rest of the G5 is quite large. I bet Boise State to make the playoff +285 back in May and the rest of the market clearly agrees- it’s about +185 now. The Broncos will face one of their toughest tests of the season in Week 1 when they travel to USF- the Bulls are my 6th rated G5 team.
It’s worth pointing out that there’s still a pretty big chance of someone surprising coming out of the G5 to make the playoff this year. There’s a 40% chance that someone either than Boise State or Tulane makes it in from the G5 this year, and a 10% chance that some team outside this graphic makes it in.