2025 ACC Preview
I intended to write longer conference previews this season but ran out of time before the season started. Instead, I’ll just be sharing some key numbers from my model, as well as a note or two about each team.
Some definitions of the columns below:
2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model
2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model
Talent Score- My model’s estimate of the total talent on the roster. 0 is FBS average. Note that this weighs high school recruiting higher and portal talent lower than you might expect, but I have found this to be most predictive in the long run.
Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025
Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025
Clemson- A legitimate national title contender for the first time since 2020. Klubnik is one of the best QBs in the sport. Their D-line is the best in the sport and it’s not close. Dabo is finally using the portal, at least a little bit.
Miami- I’m a lot more bearish than my model. The recruiting stars are clearly there, but I don’t trust either Cristobal or Beck. It’s hard to imagine them getting better after losing Cam Ward.
Louisville- I’m more bullish than my model. I love the skill position talent here, Isaac Brown and Caullin Lacy are stars. They’ve lost a ton of close games in recent years and that is bound to turn around eventually. Early schedule is light.
Georgia Tech- Best I’ve felt about the Yellow Jackets since Paul Johnson was in charge. Brent Key is an offensive lineman at heart and you can tell from his team. If Haynes King can stay healthy, this is a dark horse playoff contender.
Virginia Tech- They’ve lost a million close games. That should turn around at some point- but if it doesn’t, Brent Pry is out of a job. It’s been a decade since Beamer and VT is in danger of permanent irrelevance.
NC State- A better team than you’d expect, that won’t challenge for the ACC because they’ll lose a stupid game or two somewhere. Losing KC Concepcion shows they don’t have the money to compete with the big boys.
SMU- My model hates them because there is no track record of teams with so much bad recent history sustaining success. They better hope they get the Kevin Jennings we saw most of the season, and not the one we saw against Penn State.
Boston College- They continue to be the most anonymous team in the P4. Not good enough to contend for anything, but they won’t embarrass you either.
Duke- I’m more bullish than my model, because I don’t think it understands how good Mensah is. Last year’s record was smoke and mirrors, but I am extremely bullish on the long term forecast here under Manny Diaz.
North Carolina- Belichick will certainly have some talent at his disposal. It’s a weird combination of pieces, a lot of them through the portal. Neither 3 wins nor 9 wins would shock me.
Florida State- It’s hard to argue last year was a blip given how bad 2017-2021 was. I am shocked they couldn’t do better at QB than Castellanos in the portal, he’s got some talent but is a turnover machine.
Pittsburgh- I’m more bullish than my model thanks to what looks like a vintage Narduzzi defense. This is going to be an Iowa-style team that bludgeons you to death.
Stanford- My model loves Stanford this year, many others have them near the bottom of the P4. The talent is not that bad with a peppering of four stars throughout the roster. Frank Reich is a good coach and will get the most out of them.
Syracuse- A clear step back from last year, but the long term outlook is very strong. They face an absolutely brutal schedule, one of the toughest in the country. I think Steve Angeli was a great QB pickup in the portal.
California- Completely picked apart in the portal. The QB situation is intriguing though- two guys with a lot of recruiting stars are competing for the job. Looks like the last year for Wilcox before Ron Rivera installs his guy.
Virginia- One of the least talented rosters in the P4. The good news is the schedule couldn’t be easier. I like Chandler Morris as a bridge QB. If they don’t bowl this year, it’s probably curtains for Tony Elliott.
Wake Forest- I like the Jake Dickert hire, but year 1 will be tough. Bringing some players from Wazzu will smooth the transition. It’s comical that Robby Ashford is the starting QB for a P4 program.