2025 Big 12 Preview

I intended to write longer conference previews this season but ran out of time before the season started. Instead, I’ll just be sharing some key numbers from my model, as well as a note or two about each team.

Some definitions of the columns below:

2024 Final- Final 2024 ranking in my model

2025- Preseason 2025 ranking in my model

Talent Score- My model’s estimate of the total talent on the roster. 0 is FBS average. Note that this weighs high school recruiting higher and portal talent lower than you might expect, but I have found this to be most predictive in the long run.

Wins- Expected number of wins for 2025

Conf Wins- Expected number of conference wins for 2025

Arizona State- My clear conference favorite. The Sam Leavitt/Jordyn Tyson duo is one of the best QB/WR tandems in the sport. Dillingham has done an excellent job and his use of the portal has been way ahead of the curve.

Texas Tech- They portaled in enough, especially on the lines, to really raise the floor. I’m still not convinced about the ceiling, especially with Behren Morton back at QB. The schedule fell favorably and I think a conference title is possible.

Baylor- Sawyer Robertson is a stud. The rushing game will be good as well. I trust Dave Aranda to figure it out on defense with some subpar pieces. That all adds up to a Big 12 contender. Early games against Auburn and SMU are huge.

Kansas State- I still believe in Avery Johnson. Dylan Edwards is one of the best running backs in the country. They were unlucky last year and deserved to be in the conference title game.

TCU- There were plenty of bidders for Josh Hoover. The fact that TCU held on to them shows what weight class they’re in, money-wise. I think the ceiling is pretty high here given the quality of athlete in the WR and DB rooms.

Colorado- They’re clearly going to regress without Shedeur and Travis. Deion’s prep recruiting has been good enough that it won’t be as big a dropoff as you’d expect. Kaidon Salter is really exciting.

Cincinnati- I am more bearish than my model. This will be the best team of Satterfield’s tenure, but that’s not saying much. Somehow the Luke Fickell/Cincinnati divorce has been a disaster for both parties.

Utah- I am more bullish than my model, it does not properly account for how injured Utah was last year. Devon Dampier is as dynamic a playmaker as you’ll find. Rumor is it’s Kyle Whittingham’s last year- can he go out with a bang?

BYU- Even without Retzlaff’s departure, it was going to be a step back this year from a win/loss perspective. The newfound NIL money raises the floor, but last year’s record was deceiving. I think Bachmeier will develop into a good QB, but it will take a bit.

Kansas- Jalon Daniels’ health is the million dollar question. This was a borderline top 10 team in the country down the strech. The Border War returns this year and will set the tone for the season.

Iowa State- Not sure what all the excitement is about- they were worse than their record last year. Rocco Becht is overrated as well. I’d rather bet on the Big 12 teams with explosive athletes at QB.

UCF- I’m more bearish than my model. Malzahn’s recruiting fell off a cliff at the end and the roster is not up to snuff in the Big 12. Cam Fancher winning the QB battle is a red flag- we know he’s mid, so it means their options must suck.

Houston- Got better as the year went along last year. I love the addition of Connor Weigman in the portal. There are few coaches I have more faith in than Willie Fritz- he will make them a contender in 2026. 

Arizona- I cannot believe how poorly last year went. The 2023 version of Noah Fifita has got to be in there somewhere- can they find him? The talent level elsewhere does not inspire confidence- Tetairoa McMillan isn’t walking through that door.

West Virginia- Rich Rod turned water into wine at Jax State. He’ll get it rolling again here at some point, but it probably won’t be this year. The roster was totally revamped in the portal and it might take them a bit to gel.
Oklahoma State- The mishandling of the Ollie Gordon situation should be a federal crime. Gundy was publicly flogged in the offseason and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him walk out at the end of the year.