College Football Playoff Picture- Week 8 2025

Big Picture Overview

Before we get into the probabilities for each team to make the playoff, I’d like to start today’s post with a high-level overview of the playoff race as we enter late October.

Right now, my simulations expect the following number of 10-2 teams or better from the P2 (and Notre Dame):

Big Ten: 3.4

SEC: 4.4

Notre Dame: 0.8

Let’s assume for now that all Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams at 10-2 or better get into the playoff- that’s 8.6 bids, leaving 3.4 for everyone else.

The ACC, Big 12 and G5 will get 1 team each. The ACC is about a coin flip to get a second team in (say, 11-2 Georgia Tech that loses the ACC title game, or 10-2 Miami) and the Big 12 and G5 are quite unlikely to get a second team in. So call that 3.5 bids for ACC/Big 12/G5.

That adds up to 12.1 bids. Perfect- we’ve filled out the playoff.

That’s just the expectation though, and if we get a lot more (or less) chaos than expected, things can change.

Suppose we have a lot of chalk, and we end up with the following teams at 10-2 or better:

SEC: Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt

Big Ten: Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon look very good- suppose Michigan upsets Ohio State at home (not impossible, they’d be around a touchdown underdog) and wins their other games

Let’s throw in 10-2 Notre Dame for good measure- they’re double digit favorites in every remaining game.

If we add in a 2 bid ACC (say Georgia Tech wins the conference, and Miami goes 11-1 but misses the ACC title game due to weird tiebreakers), things get weird fast. That’s 4 Big Ten teams, 5 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams, 1 Big 12 team, 1 G5 team and Notre Dame- 14 teams for 12 spots. Who gets left out in this scenario? My guess is Notre Dame and… Ole Miss? I really don’t know.

The reverse scenario is true. All it takes is some chaos here and there (a plucky Pitt team upsetting Notre Dame, Florida beating Ole Miss again, USC beating Oregon) and we’ll be letting 9-3 SEC teams into the playoff.

The point of this all exercise is to illustrate that the base case is that 10-2 Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams will get in, and 9-3 ones will not. However, neither of those rules is a guarantee, and if we get more or less chaos than expected, it can change things a lot.

SEC

Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia are in really good shape. They can all afford an upset somewhere down the stretch and still be in fine shape to make the playoff.

This week will determine who else stays in the SEC playoff hunt. Ole Miss plays Oklahoma and Vanderbilt plays Mizzou. Neither game is an eliminator, per se, but these games have among the biggest playoff leverage of any we’ll see all season. The winners will be >50% to make the playoff and the losers will be <50%.

Texas’ odds got worse despite the win over Kentucky- both because they looked awful and they fell in my ratings, and also because it hurt the chances of 9-3 Texas getting a bid.

Big Ten

Ohio State and Indiana are locks. Oregon has one loss and should be fine even with one more- unless the SEC produces five or six 10-2 teams.

After those three, the Big Ten has a bunch of two loss teams that all have a shot if the win out. USC and Michigan would be in very good shape at 10-2, as they would own wins over Oregon and Ohio State, respectively. I think the other Big Ten teams (Illinois, Nebraska etc.) would have a much tougher time getting a bid at 10-2.

ACC + Notre Dame

The ACC is the least clear of the major conferences. If you include Notre Dame, it is possible that it will have 1 team in the playoff, and it’s possible it will have 3- that has huge knock-on effects to the Big Ten and SEC.

I feel increasingly good about Notre Dame getting in at 10-2- I think the Irish’s stellar computer numbers will help. Their biggest problem is a potential head-to-head comparison with a Miami team that beat them.

Miami and Georgia Tech are both locks if they win out. Georgia Tech can afford one more loss, I don’t know if Miami can.

Big 12

Texas Tech is still the clubhouse leader despite their loss to Arizona State. The Red Raiders have two things going for them. First, they’re the best team in the conference and will be touchdown favorites against anyone else. Second, they’re in a pretty good situation when it comes to tiebreakers for the Big 12 title game.

I’d be very surprised if the Big 12 gets two bids. Those chances go up a bit if BYU is able to knock off Iowa State as an underdog today.

Group of Five

It is increasingly likely that the winner of the American gets the G5 playoff bid. I am entertaining some possibility that the American produces a weaker champion (say, 11-2 Tulane or 10-2 Navy) and a 12-1 James Madison, whose only loss would be to Louisville, gets in. Other than that, I think the winner of the American is getting in.

South Florida is in good shape. Like Texas Tech, they’re both (a) good and (b) are likely to hold the relevant tiebreakers to make the conference title game. They’ll probably play Tulane or North Texas for the conference title.