College Football Playoff Picture- Week 11 2025
Week 11 brought some more clarity to the playoff picture. Several teams who were projected to make the field won tough games (Texas Tech, Georgia, Oregon). On the other hand, several teams who were hoping to play their way in fell out of at-large contention (Louisville, Virginia, Washington). That leaves us a smaller group of bubble teams.
Some Playoff Math
I’d like to start today’s post by doing a bit of math about how many spots are available in the playoff field. We have 12 playoff berths- 3 are allocated to the ACC, Big 12 and G5 conference champions (technically, we might get 2 G5 teams in this year instead of an ACC team, but that’s immaterial to this exercise). Thus, the most number of combined bids that the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame could get is 9.
Here are the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame teams with 2 or fewer losses. The conventional wisdom is that these teams all control their own destiny to make the playoff.
Big Ten: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, USC
SEC: Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Texas
Notre Dame
That’s 13 teams for 9 spots! Oh no! I thought all these teams controlled their own destiny? (I saw a tweet to this regard today- what will happen if Oklahoma, Texas and Vanderbilt all win out!)
Not so fast. Michigan, USC, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas all have at least one game left they’ll be underdogs in. Notre Dame and Oregon have significant tests remaining as well.
Using my model, here is the probability that each number of teams finishes at 10-2 or better from the Big Ten/SEC/Notre Dame:
>= 12: <1%
11: 3%
10: 12%
9: 29%
8: 34%
7: 18%
6: 4%
<= 5: <1%
Recall that if we get 9 such teams, that perfectly fills fill a playoff, along with the Big 12, ACC and G5 champs.
This means that we have about a 15% chance of “overfilling” the playoff (e.g. having more than 12 qualified teams), a 29% chance of “perfectly filling” the playoff and a 56% chance of “underfilling” the playoff.
I think that the discussion should thus mostly stem around what happens if we “underfill” the playoff. For example, suppose that Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Notre Dame all hold serve, but the other teams lose somewhere. That would leave us with 1 spot to fill.
In an “underfill” case, we are going to have a big debate over who deserves the last bid(s). Some candidates, in rough order of strength of resume:
11-2 Georgia Tech that beats Georgia but loses the ACC title game
11-2 Texas Tech that loses the Big 12 title game
9-3 Texas or Oklahoma
10-2 Utah
11-2 BYU that loses the Big 12 title game
9-3 Georgia or Oklahoma (if they collapse down the stretch)
10-2 Miami
I’m not confident how the committee will rank those teams relative to each other. All I know is that it will be a fierce debate.
SEC
This is pretty simple. Texas A&M is a lock. Georgia, Ole Miss and Alabama all need to lose twice to be in trouble. Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Texas all need to win out to be safe- and all have a game they’ll be an underdog in.
Oklahoma and Texas have a shot of getting in at 9-3, I would guess about 35% for Texas and 25% for Oklahoma.
Big Ten
Oregon should be fine with one more loss, unless we end up in the “overfilled” scenario from the top of the article. USC and Michigan will be looking very good if they win out, but still have to play Oregon and Ohio State, respectively.
ACC + Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in great shape if they win out- but if they lose to Pitt this weekend, it frees up another bid for someone random (Texas? Utah?).
I didn’t discuss it at length at the top of the article, but we have a real chance of a 0 bid ACC. Duke is 5-4, and has a 19% chance of winning
Big 12
Texas Tech is nearly a lock for the Big 12 title game- they have two easy games against UCF and West Virginia left.
The second spot in the Big 12 title game is more confusing. BYU and Cincinnati both control their own destiny, but have to play each other in two weeks. They have tough games elsewhere, and if they both trip up, Utah could take advantage. I also think a 10-2 Utah has a real chance at an at-large bid.
G5
These numbers sum to a bit higher than 100% to make up for the possibility of a 0 bid ACC. South Florida and North Texas both control their own destiny in the American- even if Tulane and East Carolina also finish with 1 loss. That’s because the American uses computer ratings for its tiebreakers (although only 3 of the 4 computers they use are currently publishing results…)
If USF or North Texas falter in the Ameriacn, Tulane, East Carolina and Memphis are next in line.