2026 CFB Preseason Ratings- G6
G6 Intro
Today I’ll be going through my preseason ratings for all of the G6 teams. With the rebirth of the Pac-12 this year, I’ll be referring to the conferences that used to be known as the “G5” as the G6.
Note that all ratings in this post are in points relative to the average G6 team. That is, Boise State’s rating of 11.7 indicates that they’d be expected to beat the average G6 team by 11.7 points on a neutral field. The average G6 team is 15 points worse than the average P4 team, so that means Boise State would be a 3.3 point underdog to the average P4 team on a neutral field.
For more details about how these ratings are calculated, see my previous post about it.
G6 Top 25
Last year, the American dominated the G6 with Tulane, North Texas, USF and Memphis all having great teams. The American is going to take a step back this year, as all four of those teams lost both their head coach and their quarterback- such is life in the G6.
The projected top of the G6 has a good mix of conferences. The new Pac-12 has 3 of the top 4 in Boise State, San Diego State and Washington State. The Mountain West has two real contenders in New Mexico and North Dakota State. The deepest conference, however, is expected to be the American, which has 5 of the top 10.
Pac-12
The Pac-12 has a good chance of producing the G6 playoff team this year. Boise State returns QB Maddux Madsen who took them to the playoff in 2024. San Diego State bounced back from an awful 2024 with their usual stout defense last year. My model seems a bit too high on a Washington State team that got picked clean in the portal.
It’s worth noting that this is a small conference, which means everyone will get to play everyone else. There’s also a special “flex schedule” in the last week of the season where some teams will get a repeat matchup against others. It’s also a deep conference- teams like Texas State and Utah State will only be touchdown underdogs against the top teams. That could harm the league’s playoff chances, as it’ll be tougher for a team like Boise State to run the table.
American + UConn
My model disagrees with the consensus here- I have South Florida as decent favorites to win the league this year. As I mentioned above, all of last year’s best teams lost their coach and QB, but my model likes USF’s replacements the best. Brian Hartline comes in from Ohio State, and more importantly, LSU transfer Michael Van Buren comes in at QB. Van Buren was good at Mississippi State as a true freshman and I expected him to win a P4 job. The Bulls also allegedly have the most money in the G6.
We have a mix of interesting teams after USF. Tulane and Memphis have a lot of money, but replace most of their roster. East Carolina and UTSA bring back their coaches, but are less well-resourced. The market seems to like both service academies this year, but I don’t really see the upside there.
Mountain West
This is going to be a really fun, if geographically disparate, league this year. It’s also nice to have a league that plays a full round-robin schedule. New Mexico was one of the surprises of CFB last year, and returns both head coach Jason Eck and a decent amount of their offense. North Dakota State is in their first year in FBS, and should be one of the best teams in the league but is ineligible for the conference title and the playoff (for now- they’re appealing).
Everyone else seems to really like UNLV this year, but my model is lower on them (as it has been the last few years). I’m more interested in a team like Hawai’i, who has a young exciting QB in Micah Alejado.
I speculate that whoever emerges from the Mountain West will have trouble making a case for the G6 playoff bid, given the relatively weaker standing of the league and the lack of marquee games against P4 teams.
Sun Belt
James Madison was head and shoulders better than the rest of the league last year- but they lose absolutely everybody from last year’s team. My model still makes them a small favorite to win the league on the basis of their recruiting and recent history. Louisiana Tech joins the Sun Belt this year and should contend for the league in year 1, they have the most continuity amongst the title contenders.
Elsewhere in the league, a lot of teams fell victim to the usual cycle in the G5- Arkansas State and Old Dominion had fun quarterbacks last year, but those guys now start for Iowa State and Wisconsin, respectively. Such is life.
I find it tough to believe any Sun Belt team can recreate James Madison’s success from last year and make the playoff.
MAC
Yes, Sacramento State is here now. Yes, Northern Illinois is no longer here. What was once our most geographically sensible conference is now falling apart at the seams.
The on-field product in the MAC is going to be much the same this year with mediocre teams playing lightly attended weeknight games. Toledo intrigues me, with former Mercer head coach Mike Jacobs coming to town, bringing his unique offense with him. My model loves Eastern Michigan, as they project to be one of the most experienced teams in the G5. Miami (OH) is spending a ton of money on their roster, and Western Michigan won the league last year. One of those four should take home the crown this year.
Conference USA
There’s an easy lesson to learn from Conference USA- hire good coaches, get good results. Kennesaw State shocked the world and won the league last year (I believe they were 100-1 to do so preseason) after bringing in Jerry Mack, who had lots of success in the HBCU ranks and as an NFL assistant. Florida International brought in Willie Simmons, who had a decorated career at HBCU powerhouse FAMU, and also was a pleasant surprise in year 1.
Those two schools will battle it out with Liberty in the conference race. The Flames have more money than the rest of the league but have spent it poorly in recent years. However, don’t be surprised if an outsider jumps into the conference race (Missouri State?) as this has been the hardest league in the sport to predict in recent years.