Way Too Early 2026 Top 25

It’s an annual tradition for me to publish my first preseason rankings for the college football season right before the national title game. If I look back on my way too early top 25 from a year ago, I’m pretty pleased with the results. I had Ohio State at #1 (most people had Texas or Penn State), and I had Indiana at #17 (some people had them in the 20s, some people had them unranked).There were definitely some misses (Kansas State at #9? Ouch.) but I think it was a useful exercise overall.

These rankings are meant to be an estimate of what my model will spit out for its preseason ratings. That means that while I may comment on a team’s schedule, I did not take this into account when making the rankings- e.g. I’m trying to predict how good teams will be in 2026, not what their final finish in the AP poll will be.

I’m also purposefully publishing this article without looking at any other such lists. I want to come up with my own rankings, without falling for any groupthink that might be out there.

1. Ohio State

I only considered two teams for this spot, and ultimately went with the Buckeyes. They have the best returning QB in college football (Julian Sayin) and the best returning non-QB in college football (Jeremiah Smith). Yes, they lose five first round picks, but that has become business as usual in Columbus. They have a good roster mix where 75-80% of their snaps come from players they recruited from high school, and they complement it with strategic portal additions. The schedule is much tougher than 2025 (at Texas, at Indiana, at USC, vs. Michigan), so I’m not expecting a 12-0 season, but I’d be floored if they’re not in the playoff.

2. Notre Dame

Notre Dame is the other team I considered at #1. The Irish are going to finish 2025 2nd in my power ratings behind Indiana, and they bring back a proven QB in CJ Carr. I don’t think people really appreciated how good Carr was this year because Notre Dame played in relative obscurity for most of the year, but he’s one of my preseason Heisman favorites for 2026. Notre Dame also might have the best defender in the sport next year in CB Leonard Moore. The Fighting Irish, like Ohio State, have a very strong core of talent from the high school ranks augmented by strategic portal additions- which I think should be the blueprint for the sports’ blue bloods. 

3. Oregon

I made a draft of this list a week ago before Dante Moore announced he was coming back to school. The Ducks were on the fringe of the top 10 on that list. With Moore back at the helm, they’re a clear national title contender. Oregon very well could have the best passing game in the country with Moore throwing to stud receivers Dakorien Moore (no relation) and Evan Stewart. Stewart missed all of 2025 with an injury, and Oregon will be delighted to have a player of his quality back in the fold. Dylan Raiola provides a good insurance policy if he decides to spend the year in Eugene.

4. Indiana

I struggled a lot with where to place Indiana. Their portal class is truly incredible so far, but they are losing quite a lot. Fernando Mendoza is gone, along with his 2 best WRs, their best tackle, their best DB and their best EDGE. The guys that Curt Cignetti brought over from JMU are pretty much all out of eligibility as well. That’s a lot to replace, but if there’s anyone I trust to do it, it’s Cignetti. I have to drop the Hoosiers a bit because Josh Hoover is going to be quite a significant downgrade from Mendoza (no shade against Hoover- Mendoza has just been excellent). But I also think Cig will figure it out.

5. Georgia

It felt a bit weird to not have an SEC team in my top 4, but the top end of the conference has just been underwhelming the last few years. I feel the best about the ‘Dawgs out of all the SEC contenders- they return QB Gunner Stockton and both coordinators. Stockton isn’t a world beater, but Kirby Smart has won two national titles with Stetson Bennett, so he doesn’t need to be. They are only losing 7 or 8 guys to the NFL draft, which is not a lot by their standards. I’d like to see them add a WR in the portal with Zachariah Branch graduating, but this looks like a very solid team and I trust Kirby. 

6. Texas

I was a big seller of Texas in 2025 and it worked out nicely for me. I think expectations are more measured for 2026- people recognize that while Arch Manning is good, he’s not the hands down best QB in the country. He clearly got better as the year went along and I expect more improvement for next year. Texas also doesn’t graduate a ton- they’ll probably only lose 6 or 7 guys to the draft, which is not much for a program that restocks talent as well as they do. I expect to see the Longhorns in the playoff next year.

7. Texas Tech

Like Indiana, I was really not sure where to place Texas Tech- I considered everywhere from 3rd down to 8th. The good news is that they’ll surely be better at QB- Brendan Sorsby isn’t a world beater, but he’s definitely better than Behren Morton. At the time of writing, they also appear to be the front runners in the Cam Coleman sweepstakes. The bad news is that they have to replace four NFL players in the front seven, including David Bailey. Yes, they’re retooling in the portal and improving their high school recruiting, but that’s still a massive ask. The Red Raiders are the clear class of the Big 12, and Sorsby’s performance will determine whether they’re a real national title contender or not.

8. Texas A&M

Yes, they stumbled down the stretch, but this was still a great season for Texas A&M. The Aggies were solidly in the back half of the top 10, a place they haven’t been in years. The offense abandoned them in their two season ending losses, but they’re changing offensive coordinators after Colin Klein left for Kansas State. Marcel Reed is back, as is star WR Mario Craver. I also think the world of Mike Elko- he has a good eye for talent (he really punched above his weight at Duke) and I like what they’re doing in the portal. Along with Georgia and Texas, they’re one of the three main SEC contenders for 2026.

9. USC

There’s a pretty significant drop in my mind from the top 8 teams to everyone else. USC was really quite good in 2025, but had bad close game luck and was on the fringes of the playoff picture all season. A lot of advanced stats systems (including mine) really like QB Jayden Maiava and USC should be thrilled he’s returning- I thought he might leave for the NFL draft. The case for USC is pretty clear- a top 15 team that returns their QB, HC and both coordinators, and has had a few top 10 recruiting classes in recent years. Let’s see if Lincoln Riley can finally put it all together in Los Angeles.

10. Oklahoma

I really have no clue how good John Mateer is, he was great early in the season and mediocre after his hand surgery. The bull case on him is that he was playing hurt for the second half of the season, and the bear case is that he just beat up on crappy defenses in September. I’m not sure which I believe. The good news is that Oklahoma returns a remarkable amount for a playoff team- they might be the oldest and most experienced team in the SEC next year. The schedule is brutal (Michigan and 9 SEC games), which could put a lid on their win total.

11. Miami

As of time of writing, Miami does not have a QB lined up for next year. I have no idea who they’re going to end up with at this point, as there aren’t many options left on the board. Whatever QB they end up with is going to love having Malachi Toney and Mark Fletcher Jr. on his offense. The ‘Canes do have to replace Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, which is essentially impossible. Their recruiting has been excellent and their offensive skill talent will be great, and that makes them the clear ACC favorites.

12. LSU

After a long saga, it appears LSU has landed on Sam Leavitt as their QB for 2025. Leavitt is a very solid QB and I had LSU in the 20s prior to his commitment, so he certainly bumps them up a bit. However, I have questions about the rest of the roster. It seemed like Kiffin was trying to put together a portal all-star team, but swung and missed on a few key guys. He has to replace Harold Perkins, as well as two DBs who will start Week 1 in the NFL. However, I can’t put LSU any lower than this with Leavitt behind center and years have stacked high school recruiting classes piled up to support him.

13. Alabama

I am not excited about Alabama next year. The Crimson Tide just were not that good this year- they’re finishing the year in the low teens in my model.  It seems like they’re going to go with an in-house option at QB, Austin Mack and Keelon Russell will battle for the job. Neither guy excites me. Kadyn Proctor and Germie Bernard are gone, and Ryan Williams magically disappeared from the offense down the stretch. They are clearly behind the main SEC contenders of Georgia, Texas and Texas A&M in 2026.

14. Penn State

I think this will be a quick rebuild for Matt Campbell at Penn State, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make the playoff in year one. They have a few things going for them. First, Penn State was not that bad in 2025- they finished in the top 25 in most computer systems. Second, he brought a ton of players with him from Iowa State, including experienced QB Rocco Becht. The schedule is also very light (no Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana, plus 3 G5 games in non-conference play). I’m bullish on the Nittany Lions for 2026.

15. South Carolina

Yes, I am falling for the South Carolina trap again. LaNorris Sellers is back, and I think his mediocre 2025 was mostly a product of a weak offensive line. I still have a lot of faith in him in the long term. Shane Beamer brought in Jacarrius Peak (arguably the top tackle in the portal) to fix that. Star EDGE Dylan Stewart also might be the best pass rusher in the sport next year. South Carolina also got extremely unlucky in 2025- they were around the 25-30 range in most computer ratings. I’m ready to hop on the Gamecocks bandwagon.

16. Auburn

If you’ve been reading this website for a long time, you know how much I like Byrum Brown. I was very bullish on South Florida in the preseason this year, because Brown’s potential when healthy is through the roof. New HC Alex Golesh brought Brown with him to Auburn, and I’m excited to see what he can do. Golesh should spark new life in the Tigers- everyone knows that their problems in recent years have been coaching, not talent. I think very highly of Golesh and he’s brought a nice core with him from USF in addition to Brown. Losing Cam Coleman hurts, but losing Hugh Freeze helps more.

17. Utah

Utah clocks in as the best Big 12 school not named Texas Tech. The Utes lost HC Kyle Whittingham to Michigan in a strange retirement situation. Normally, losing your HC is a good way to get raided in the portal. The Utes have avoided this by promoting from within- longtime DC Morgan Scalley was named the “coach in waiting” two years ago. They also held onto QB Devon Dampier- longtime readers of this site know that I have loved Dampier since his freshman year at New Mexico. Utah still has their physical identity and an excellent dual-threat QB- that’s a nice recipe for success.

18. Tennessee

We still are waiting for clarity on Tennessee’s QB situation for 2026- Joey Aguilar is battling for an extra year of eligibility in the court system. Reading the tea leaves, I think he will probably get it- and this ranking assumes he does. Tennessee had a solid year in 2025, they spent most of the year in the back half of the top 25. I think their 2026 will be pretty similar. The Volunteers recruit well, but not spectacularly. Aguilar is very solid, but nothing special. Their use of the portal is decent, but they’re not grabbing the top shelf players. It feels like another 8-5 or 9-4 type year in Knoxville.

19. Michigan

I know a lot of Michigan fans, and they were very scared of losing Bryce Underwood. They should consider themselves lucky that LSU was such a dumpster fire this year- if the same staff was in Baton Rouge that recruited Underwood in the first place, he probably would have left. Michigan is in a better spot than most teams going through a coaching change, both because of Bryce and also because they sent relatively little talent to the draft last year. In 2024, Michigan went 8-5 and lost 3 players who went in the first 13 picks of the draft. In 2025, Michigan went 9-4 but will only have 2 players selected in the first 100 picks. I feel this might be a bit too low for the Wolverines, but I struggled figuring out who they could jump.

20. Missouri

I imagine that most people are not going to have Missouri in their preseason top 25. I am bullish here because I really like QB Austin Simmons. Simmons was the heir apparent to Jaxson Dart at Ole Miss, and people spoke very highly of him in the offseason in Oxford. He looked solid early, but got injured in September. He never regained the starting job once healthy as Trinidad Chambliss went supernova in his place. Simmons joins Ahmad Hardy, who will likely be the best running back in college football next year. That’s a powerful duo, and I’m excited by what I see at Mizzou.

21. Clemson

You’ll notice that we’re all the way down in the 20s and this is only the second ACC team on the list. Admittedly, there are a lot of ACC teams I considered but ended up not including (Duke, SMU, Pittsburgh, NC State, Virginia Tech), but this speaks to how questionable things have gotten at Clemson and Florida State. Clemson is rolling with Christopher Vizzina at QB. We have seen other blue bloods have success with QBs who “waited their turn” (Julian Sayin comes to mind), but the reports I hear about Vizzina are not exciting to me. The Tigers also lose 3 first round picks on defense- Dabo does recruit the high school ranks very well, but that’s quite hard to replace. 

22. BYU

I didn’t expect much of BYU in 2024 or 2025, but they were a pleasant surprise in both years. The 2025 surprise was led by true freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Bachmeier should grow in his second season as a starter, and BYU has plenty of money to surround him with other talent. Kalani Sitake’s teams have often punched above their weight at BYU, and now that they have a good QB and some money, they’re a real playoff contender.

23. Ole Miss

I’m assuming that Trinidad Chambliss’ appeal for another year of eligibility is declined. That likely means that Ole Miss will be rolling with Deuce Knight at QB, who looked solid in limited action in his true freshman season at Auburn. I swung and missed on the Rebels in 2025 (I was quite bearish in the preseason and they ended up in the semifinals), but this team looks worse at QB and has also had a few portal defections. They should be a middle of the pack SEC team in 2026.

24. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is a very hard team for me to rank. Diego Pavia has been the sun, moon and stars for the Commodores since he transferred over from New Mexico State two years ago. Obviously a lot of Vanderbilt’s recent success is attributable to Pavia, but I think there are some good foundational pieces outside of him. That certainly includes QB Jared Curtis, who was the top QB in the 2026 recruiting class. I expect Curtis to start in his true freshman season, which will likely lead to some early speed bumps but some improvement over the course of the season. Clark Lea has done an excellent job so far at Vanderbilt and I think he can figure things out.

25. Washington

Washington has certainly had an eventful offseason with Demond Williams Jr. signing a new deal, trying to enter the portal, getting dropped by his agent, and then finally withdrawing from the portal. There’s a reason Williams tried to enter the portal- he’d be in high demand. The problem for Washington is that they’ll get worse elsewhere on offense as star RB Jonah Coleman and first round WR Denzel Boston are both graduating. The Huskies will be a plucky team who will probably pull an upset against one of the Big Ten’s top teams.

Here are some other teams I considered for my top 25 but ended up on the outside looking in:

Arizona: Arizona was excellent down the stretch, and QB Noah Fifita is back for another year.

Florida: Florida had a lot of talent during the Napier era but it was mismanaged. Let’s see if Jon Sumrall can turn it around quickly.

SMU: When he’s on his game, Kevin Jennings looks unstoppable. SMU has some real upside.

Duke: Darian Mensah has proper NFL upside. Manny Diaz has significantly outperformed expectations so far at Duke.

Pittsburgh- Mason Heintschel was a revelation as a true freshman and Pitt has held onto both him and OC Kade Bell.

NC State- CJ Bailey has all the physical tools you could ask for. Losing Hollywood Smothers will hurt though.

Iowa- A lot of computers had Iowa in the top 15 this year. They’ll be a tough out once again.

Houston- I think the world of Willie Fritz. Connor Weigman was a 5 star for a reason and Fritz unlocked some of that last year.

Virginia Tech- James Franklin has brought an enormous amount of talent with him from Penn State, including his QB.

Oklahoma State- Eric Morris not only brought Drew Mestemaker with him from North Texas, but his best RB, WR and OT as well. I’m intrigued, but they were so bad in 2025.