College Football Futures Bets- Week 10 2025
I made a few units on my future last week. SMU losing as a favorite to Wake Forest was quite helpful. The Vandy win over Mizzou was a double win for us. We also made more on San Diego State, Southern Miss and Texas A&M.
New Bets
Cincinnati to miss the Playoff -425 (4 units)
There’s a straight arbitrage available here- Cincinnati is -425 to miss the playoff on DraftKings and +550 to make it on FanDuel. This is the much better leg of the trade. Cincinnati is having a solid season and has made it into my model’s top 25. The Bearcats need to win the Big 12 to have a shot at the playoff, and are touchdown underdogs at Utah this weekend and are roughly a coin flip against BYU and TCU. This is a decent team, but they are going to have to win two of those three games just to get to the Big 12 title game- where they’ll likely be a decent underdog to Texas Tech. The math isn’t mathing on this one.
Kennesaw State to win CUSA +170 (2 units)
Kennesaw State is one of the biggest surprises in the sport. I was skeptical for a while, but I have to admit that the Owls are legit- they exploded for nearly 9 yards per play last week. An added benefit for them- Conference USA’s tiebreakers are largely based on computer ratings, and they’re the highest rated CUSA team in most computers- this gives them a very good chance of making the conference title game.
Utah to win the Big 12 20/1 (1 unit)
This is a Big 12 team I’m more interested in betting on. Utah is physical on the lines and utterly dominated Colorado last week (they had a 380 to -10 yard edge at halftime!). They do already have two losses to fellow contenders BYU and Texas Tech- but they stand a decent chance at making the Big 12 title game if they go 4-0 down the stretch. It helps that this is a consensus top 15 team in the computers- I give them a 60% chance of winning out.
Iowa to make the Playoff 28/1 (1 unit)
Iowa’s offense has improved under former South Dakota State QB Mark Gronowski. It’s not good, but it has at least improved. That complements their consistently excellent defense and special teams.
If you look at Iowa’s resume, are we sure this isn’t like, the 12th best team in the country? They gave Indiana their closest game of the season (by far) and lost a close game to Iowa State on the road. They also obliterated Minnesota and Wisconsin. Iowa has a tough remaining schedule with Oregon and USC- but that’s why this bet is 28/1. I think that they will be competitive in both games.
Rooting Guide
Navy @ North Texas (-6.5)
This is the most important game of the week for us. We will win 30 units if North Texas makes the playoff (which they likely will if they win the conference). We’re also implicitly short Navy by being long other teams in the American (North Texas, Tulane and South Florida).
Vanderbilt @ Texas (-1.5)
We make 6 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff and make 16 units if Texas doesn’t. Texas has looked awful in the last two weeks and we can finally put their playoff hopes to bed with a loss here.
North Carolina @ Syracuse (-2)
We will win 8 units if North Carolina wins 0 or 1 more games this season. They are playing a lot better since their bye week and this game looks like a coin flip to me.
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky (-8.5)
This is a pretty important one for us- we’re long NMSU and short WKU. We’re also implicitly short WKU from being long the other CUSA contenders (Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State, Louisiana Tech)
Texas Tech (-7.5) @ Kansas State
We’re quite long Texas Tech- their Big 12 hopes get quite murky with a loss here. I quite like Kansas State, and it could be worth a hedge on KSU ML if you are so inclined.
Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida
We have some shorts on UGA from preseason that would have a chance if they lose here.
Tulane (-3.5) @ UTSA
Tulane is now the betting favorite to make the playoff out of the G5. We will win 11 units if they do- a bit less then the 30 and 20 units we win if North Texas or South Florida makes the playoff, but a respectable sum nonetheless.
Miami (-11.5) @ SMU
Our exposure here is complicated- we’re short both teams, and also have SMU ML, and also have some small longs on Miami. Net net- we prefer an SMU win here.
Cincinnati @ Utah (-8.5)
We’re long Utah and short Cincinnati. It would be great if Utah takes care of business here.
Oklahoma @ Tennessee (-3)
We’re long Oklahoma and short Tennessee. A Sooners win here puts Tennessee’s playoff hopes to bed.
New Mexico @ UNLV (-4.5)
Our UNLV shorts have some life, and a UNLV loss here has the added bonus of helping San Diego State.
Wyoming @ San Diego State (-10.5)
San Diego State has been a wagon since we got long them, we want that to continue.
UTEP @ Kennesaw State (-9.5)
Kennesaw State takes another step to winning the conference with a win here.
Louisville (-10.5) @ Virginia Tech
We make 6 units if Louisville makes the playoff, and they take a decent step to it with a win here.
Jacksonville State (-6.5) @ Middle Tennessee State
Jacksonville State needs to win this to keep realistic hopes at winning the league alive.
Virginia (-3.5) @ California
We make 8 units if Virginia make the playoff, and this is one of their trickiest games left.
East Carolina (-4.5) @ Temple
Our position in the American is complicated, but would be helped a bit by a Temple win.
Other teams who are large favorites or underdogs we are rooting for, in rough order of importance:
Indiana (-21.5) @ Maryland, Ohio State (-20.5) vs. Penn State, Stanford (+14.5) vs. Pittsburgh, Rice (+14) vs. Memphis