College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 11 2025
I made 10 more units on my futures last week. My North Texas to make the playoff ticket at 30/1 continues to look quite good, as does South Florida to win the American. I also made a bit on my longs on Oklahoma and Duke last week.
New Bets
Miami to make the Playoff +330 (3 units)
I made this bet on Sunday, so I have to post about it- but it has aged poorly. I bet 4 units on Miami to miss the playoff at +230 a few weeks ago, and that looks great- my idea was to lock in some profit here on a line that I thought was a bit +EV. Unfortunately, the committee put Miami 18th in their initial rankings, and they now look unlikely to make the playoff even if they win out. I’ve locked in a profit, but I could’ve gotten a better price.
Rooting Guide
Stanford @ North Carolina (-7.5)
I’ve had this game circled on my calendar for my months. We win 5.6 units if Stanford wins 4 or more games- and they currently have 3 wins. We also win 8 units if North Carolina wins 3 or fewer games- and they also currently have 3 wins. Both teams have a tough remaining schedule and this could determine the outcome of both bets.
Oregon (-6.5) @ Iowa
We make 8.8 units if Oregon misses the playoff and 28 units if Iowa makes it. If Iowa pulls the upset here, it’ll put Oregon in serious playoff danger and put the Hawkeyes into the top 15 or so.
Tulane @ Memphis (-3.5)
This game is ongoing as I write. We win 11 units if Tulane wins the American and makes the playoff, and only 3 units if Memphis does. Perhaps more importantly, a Tulane win helps out South Florida and North Texas a lot from a tiebreaker perspective.
BYU @ Texas Tech (-11.5)
This line has grown over the course of the week, which is good news for us. We got very long Texas Tech a month ago and they’ll cement their position as Big 12 favorites with a win.
Jacksonville State @ UTEP (-1.5)
We win 11 units if Jacksonville State wins CUSA. They’re undefeated in conference play and move closer to making the conference title game with a win here.
SMU (-10.5) @ Boston College
We have SMU under 8.5 wins, and that will cash if they lose this game. It also would eliminate them from the ACC race, which would help our longs on Virginia, Duke and Louisville.
UNLV (-4.5) @ Colorado State
We have UNLV under 8.5 wins. They kept stringing together lucky wins to start the season, but are finally coming down to earth. A late season collapse would be great for us.
Southern Miss (-4.5) @ Arkansas State
I bet Arkansas State ML this week both because I think it’s good, and also to hedge our exposure here- Southern Miss essentially locks up the Sun Belt West with a win here. We’re flat exposure here.
Miami (OH) @ Ohio (-2.5)
This game was on Tuesday night, but we’re long Ohio and they’re now the MAC favorites after beating Miami (OH).
San Diego State (-6.5) @ Hawai’i
We got long San Diego State at the right time- they’re 4-0 since we bet on them to make the MWC title game. That will essentially be a lock if they win this game.
LSU @ Alabama (-10.5)
Our bet on Alabama to win the SEC requires them to keep winning. We also have LSU to miss the playoff- and that will fully be dead if they lose this game
Texas A&M (-7) @ Missouri
Our bet on Texas A&M to win the SEC will be on track with a win here.
Auburn @ Vanderbilt (-6.5):
We make 6 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff- they need a win here.
Georgia (-9.5) @ Mississippi State
We have 3 units on Georgia to miss the playoff at +198 from the preseason. We could use an upset here.
Other teams who are large favorites or underdogs we are rooting for, in rough order of importance:
Indiana (-14.5) @ Penn State, Ohio State (-29.5) @ Purdue, California @ Louisville (-18.5)