College Football Picks- Week 9 2025
It was yet another solid week- this time I made most of my money on alt lines. UCF -22.5 +419 and UConn -13.5 +380 both hit. This is the first year I’ve bet alt lines, and I’m really pleased with the success that I’ve had. My main alt line strategy has been betting against teams that (a) my model is low on and (b) I think have bad coaching staffs. Coaching matters so much in college football, and it’s not uncommon to see teams just quit in the middle of the season- in a way that you’ll never really see in the NFL.
Futures*: +27.03 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Week 6: +3.83 units
Week 7: +2.04 units
Week 8: +8.16 units
Season Total: +39.45 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
A few weeks ago I bet Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West at +475. This has been one of my biggest winners of the season- the Golden Eagles have since rattled off a few wins in a row and become the favorites to win the division.
ULM is one of the most woebegone programs in FBS- they have no money, and it’s a miracle that they won 5 games last year. Southern Miss is so much more talented than them and should roll here.
Southern Miss -10.5 -105 (1 unit)
NC State @ Pittsburgh (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Pitt started the season with former Alabama QB Eli Holstein. In a controversial move at the time, HC Pat Narduzzi benched him after a few weeks for true freshman Mason Heintschel. It looks like a genius move now, as he’s made 3 starts and Pitt has cleared 30 points in each of them.
Rumors are swirling around NC State HC Dave Doeren with a lot of people penciling James Franklin into the NC State job. The Wolfpack have been disappointing this year and Pitt should be a bigger favorite.
Pittsburgh -6.5 -112 (1 unit)
TCU @ West Virginia (Saturday, 5 PM Central)
I bet an alt line against West Virginia last week and it hit- I’m doing it again. Rich Rodriguez went full portal in his return to WVU, and it has not paid off in year one- this is one of the worst rosters in the P4. TCU QB Josh Hoover can really sling it, and they have the capability to light up the scoreboard. That makes me think TCU can really blow West Virginia out of the water.
TCU -28.5 +369 (1 unit)