College Football Futures Bets- Week 8 2025
I broke even on my futures last week. My biggest winner was Indiana- in particular, my Indiana to win the Big Ten bet at 15/1 from a few weeks ago looks great here.
New Bets
Oklahoma to miss the Playoff -225 (6 units)
I got really long Oklahoma in the preseason, but it’s time to close some of my position here. They looked awful against Texas last week- John Mateer is clearly not 100% healthy. I understand why he played, as backup QB Michael Hawkins Jr. sucked. More concerning for me is that Oklahoma has developed absolutely zero run game. Former Cal RB Jaydn Ott was supposed to be the bellcow but Oklahoma’s coaching staff clearly doesn’t trust him. Their schedule is brutal and they’re not as good as I thought- as evidenced by the fact that they’re only a 4.5 point favorite against South Carolina.
Missouri to miss the Playoff -340 (3 units)
I don’t think Mizzou has the top end talent to seriously compete in the SEC. They also have an easier schedule than most SEC teams which could work to their disadvantage- if there’s a jumble of 10-2 SEC teams fighting for the last few playoff bids, a team with an easy schedule and relative little name brand like Mizzou will be at the bottom of the pecking order.
Bowling Green to win the MAC +700 (2 units)
Eddie George took over at Bowling Green this year. This isn’t some vanity project- he was previously the coach at Tennessee State, which is a historically downtrodden HBCU program who he took to the FCS playoffs. He has done a nice job in year 1 building a roster out of the portal and knocked off arch-rival and conference favorite Toledo last week. I really like the Falcons.
South Florida to win the American +230 (2 units)
South Florida dominated North Texas on the road on Friday. South Florida and Memphis are the two teams in the American with the best high-end talent, and the Bulls might have the best QB in the G5 in Byrum Brown. Other than a road trip to Memphis in two weeks, their schedule is very manageable.
Texas Tech to go undefeated +165 (2 units)
Texas Tech to make National Championship Game +750 (1 unit)
It’s time to get longer Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have been a total wagon this year- they are 6-0 ATS and haven’t had a game closer than 24 points. I’ve been getting long them for the last few weeks and continue to do so here- their upside is much higher than the typical Big 12 team given how much high-end talent they got in the portal.
Texas A&M to win the SEC +500 (1 unit)
I’ve been long Texas A&M since June and don’t plan on stopping now. Their defense has improved leaps and bounds since the Notre Dame game and Marcel Reed is rounding into form at QB. They’re taking care of business against bad SEC teams and their remaining schedule is manageable by SEC standards.
Virginia to make the Playoff +880 (1 unit)
Virginia has an extremely light schedule and has a great shot at making the ACC title game. Their game with Duke will likely decide whether or not they make it to Charlotte. They have a non-zero chance of getting into the playoff even if they lose the ACC title game to Miami, so long as they win out until then.
Rooting Guide
UNLV @ Boise State (-10.5): This is key for our 5 units on Boise State to win the Mountain West. A win here pretty much locks up a place in the conference title game for them, and puts our UNLV under 8.5 wins back in play.
Ole Miss @ Georgia (-7): We’re long Ole Miss to make the playoff and short Georgia to make the playoff. Ole Miss looked quite bad last week and as a result this line has grown from 3.5 to 7, which is bad news for us.
Texas (-11.5) @ Kentucky: We are very short Texas and a win here would be phenomenal. I will admit I was surprised to see the Longhorns as only an 11.5 point favorite here.
LSU @ Vanderbilt (-2.5): We’re long Vanderbilt to make the playoff and short LSU to make the playoff.
SMU @ Clemson (-9.5): We have two units on Clemson -11.5 in this game from the preseason.
Southern Miss (-4) @ Louisiana: Our bet on Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West at +475 immediately looks great- not only did they win, but their main rival for the division (Texas State) lost. The Golden Eagles are undefeated in Sun Belt play and are two games up on Texas State in the loss column.
USC @ Notre Dame (-9.5): We’re long Notre Dame to make the playoff and they essentially have two real games remaining- this one and a November trip to Pitt.
Army @ Tulane (-9.5): A little surprised to see Tulane as only a 9.5 point favorite here. We’re decently long the Green Wave.
Tennessee @ Alabama (-8.5): Alabama keeps on winning and our bets on them to win the SEC keep looking better and better. We want them to stay on track here.
North Carolina @ California (-9.5): This is one of the winnable games on North Carolina’s schedule. We can only afford for them to get one more win, they’re 2-3 and we have under 3.5 wins at 16/1.
FIU @ Western Kentucky (-9.5): We’re implicitly quite short Western Kentucky from our longs elsewhere in CUSA.
Texas A&M (-7.5) @ Arkansas: Our longs on Texas A&M look better by the week. This is a tricky road game against a plucky Arkansas team.
Texas State (-2.5) @ Marshall: We are implicitly quite short Texas State as we are long all four of the other contenders in the Sun Belt (JMU, ODU, Southern Miss, Troy).
Oklahoma (-4.5) @ South Carolina: We are still long the Oklahoma win total even if we’ve closed most of the playoff exposure, a win here keeps them on track to cash the over there.
Texas Tech (-12) @ Arizona State: Our Texas Tech longs look very good. It seems Arizona State might still have to play backup QB Jeff Sims here, who sucks.
Delaware (-2.5) @ Jacksonville State: We’re long both teams but longer Jacksonville State.
Troy (-6) @ ULM: We have Troy to win the Sun Belt at 15/1. A win here takes them closer to a two horse race for the division with Southern Miss, who we are also long.
Old Dominion @ James Madison (-2.5): We are long both teams, it’s not clear which result we’d prefer.
Other teams who are large favorites (>=14 points) that we are rooting for include, in order of importance: Indiana, Ohio State, Miami, Memphis, South Florida.