College Football Futures Bets- Week 9 2025
I broke even on my futures once again last week. I had some pretty tough losses with Texas Tech (who nearly came back to win), Miami and Memphis (who was a 24 point favorite). However, I won a ton on Stanford, who now looks likely to go over 3.5 wins after their upset win over Florida State.
New Bets
Big 12 under 1.5 Playoff Teams -220 (7 units)
As I mentioned above, Texas Tech lost last week to Arizona State. That’s disastrous for the Big 12’s chances of getting multiple teams in the playoff- the Red Raiders were the league’s most compelling at-large case by far.
I really struggle to see how the Big 12 could get 2 teams into the playoff. BYU is still undefeated and would certainly get an at-large bid with only one loss, but they still have a few games they’ll be underdogs in. Everyone else has a loss and I struggle to see a 2 loss Big 12 team getting an at-large bid- maybe Texas Tech could, but it is unlikely.
South Florida to win the American +125 (5 units)
South Florida continues to look excellent, and their main competition in the American, Memphis, just lost as a 24 point favorite to UAB. South Florida plays Memphis this weekend and is firmly in the driver’s seat in the conference with a win.
An important factor here- all non head-to-head tiebreakers in the American are determined by CFP rankings and computer rankings, which South Florida is very likely to have an edge in over say, Memphis or Tulane.
Georgia to win the SEC +500 (1 unit)
Georgia is in good position to make the SEC title game. The ‘Dawgs have 1 loss in conference play, and only 3 games left- easy ones against Florida and Mississippi State, and a home game against Texas.
Alabama and Texas A&M both are undefeated in SEC play, so Georgia does need one of them to trip up- but Texas A&M probably will somewhere. In the event of a tiebreaker with A&M or other SEC teams, it will come down to conference strength of schedule, and Georgia is in very good shape there.
Rooting Guide
South Florida (-4.5) @ Memphis
We got long South Florida to win the American at 10/1 in the preseason. Then I added more at +230 last week, and even more at +125 today. The Bulls are the best team in the G5, and this line has been moving towards them all week- it opened at -2.
Texas (-7) @ Mississippi State
We marked in on our Texas shorts last week despite their win over Kentucky. They looked awful- they were outgained by 200 yards and were very lucky to win. One more Texas loss and we cash our under 9.5 wins ticket.
Missouri @ Vanderbilt (-2.5)
We’re long Vanderbilt to make the playoff and short Mizzou to make the playoff. Vanderbilt would move to around +130 to make the playoff with a win here.
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma (-5.5)
We sold out of half of our Oklahoma exposure last week, but we still have a good bit. We’re a bit long Ole Miss as well, but we have a good bit more exposure on Oklahoma. This is a huge playoff gamma game- the winner will be favored to make it while the loser will be running out of hope.
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech (-5.5)
This is a Tuesday night game, it’s at halftime at time of writing. Unfortunately, Louisiana Tech is losing- we have 3 units on them to win CUSA and are also implicitly short WKU from bets elsewhere.
Virginia (-10.5) @ North Carolina
We have 1 unit on Virginia to make the playoff which we’ve marked in a bit on- the chaos in the ACC has helped us. More importantly, we also have 0.5 units on UNC to go 3-9 or worse at 16/1. We need them to keep losing games like this.
San Diego State (-3) @ Fresno State
We got long SDSU at the right time. We have the Aztecs to make the conference title game at +500- they would be favored to do so with a win here.
Houston @ Arizona State (-7.5)
Texas Tech losing was pretty bad for us, but they at least did it to Arizona State, who we’re also long (just not as long). The Sun Devils look much better now that QB Sam Leavitt is back- backup QB Jeff Sims sucks.
Texas A&M (-2.5) @ LSU
Our A&M longs and our LSU shorts are both pretty in the money, but we’d still be helped by an A&M win here.
SMU (-3.5) @ Wake Forest
We have SMU under 8.5 wins which looks bad after their win against Clemson. We’re also implicitly short them from other ACC bets we have.
BYU @ Iowa State (-2.5)
While we don’t have any explicit exposure here, our other Big 12 positions would be helped by an Iowa State win.
The following teams we have a rooting interest in are very big favorites or very big underdogs:
Stanford (+30.5 @ Miami), Indiana (-25.5 vs. UCLA), Alabama (-12.5 @ South Carolina), Wisconsin (+33.5 @ Oregon), Texas Tech (-38.5 vs. Oklahoma State), North Texas (-26.5 @ Charlotte), Boise State (-21.5 @ Nevada), Louisville (-25.5 vs. Boston College), Ohio (-12.5 @ Eastern Michigan)