College Football Futures Bets- Week 14 2025

I made another 5 units on my futures last week. My Oklahoma bets (Oklahoma to make playoff +550, Oklahoma 10+ wins +600) look quite good after they beat Missouri, and my bets on North Texas and Tulane continue to age well. I lost a bit in the MAC and CUSA last week, but still had a solid week.

This week is a big one for my existing bets, as I’ll get into in the rooting guide. I normally include my rooting guide for my futures in this post, but I’ve got enough futures bets this week that I’ll make a separate post for the rooting guide.

Notre Dame to miss the Playoff +790 (1 unit)

As I’ll detail in my playoff preview this week, the probability of a playoff logjam is increasing. The messiest scenario is where Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Alabama, Oregon, Michigan and Notre Dame all win. I think that if that happens, Notre Dame will be on the outside looking in. The committee has also had some weird rhetoric surrounding Notre Dame and Miami- I don’t think it’s going to happen, but it wouldn’t shock me if Miami randomly leapfrogged Notre Dame after Thanksgiving. This is worth a flier.

James Madison to make the Playoff +760 (1 unit)

If they win the conference (which they likely will- they’re -700 to do so), James Madison has two shots at the playoff:

(1) Hope someone other than Tulane or North Texas wins the American (unlikely- Tulane or UNT would have to lose as a 20+ favorite this week)

(2) Have Duke win the ACC, which is not impossible given the way the tiebreakers work out

I don’t think this is particularly likely, but I think it should be +600 or so. The market is still underpricing the “Duke wins the ACC” scenario.

SMU to make the Playoff Quarterfinal +600 (1 unit)

SMU to make the Playoff Semifinal +2000 (0.5 units)

I don’t think people have caught up to how good SMU is. They’re not just backing their way into the ACC title game- they’re a consensus top 25 team in the computers, and top 15 in my computer. If they win the ACC, their most likely playoff matchup is at Ole Miss, where they’d only be a 5 or 6 point underdog. I like buying some wing calls on the Mustangs and exciting QB Kevin Jennings.

Kennesaw State to win CUSA +175 (1 unit)

Kennesaw State is having a dream season- it’s their first season as a non-transitional FBS member, and they’re 8-3 with a real shot at the conference title game. I like this bet mostly for tiebreaker reasons- the CUSA title game participants are likely to be determined by computer ratings. Kennesaw State will make the conference title game with a win this weekend, and their computer rating is good enough that they’re in pretty good shape even with a loss.

San Diego State to win the Mountain West +150 (1 unit)

San Diego State is the only team with fewer than 2 losses in Mountain West play. That means they’re in the conference title game with a win over New Mexico. If they lose, it’ll come down to their computer rating, but they’re in very good shape on that front. The Aztecs also are guaranteed to host the conference title game if they win this weekend, and they’d either host a Boise State team who is missing their starting QB or an overrated UNLV team.

Texas Tech to miss the Playoff +1600 (0.5 units)

I bet on this last week at +980 and am adding a bit here. The “overfill” scenario of the playoff is growing in likelihood, and that is bad news for Texas Tech. I think the Red Raiders are in if they lose the Big 12 title game, but I’m definitely not certain, especially if Michigan beats Ohio State. There’s some decent value here.

Texas to make the Playoff +4000 (0.5 units)

I’ve been a huge Texas hater all year, and it’s worked out great for me. Texas under 9.5 wins and Texas to miss the Playoff were two of my biggest bets of the preseason and both have been spectacular. However, I do have to admit that there is some risk with them. If Texas beats Texas A&M this weekend, especially if they win big, and there is chaos elsewhere, there will be a lot of momentum to put them in the field (if you want to put your tinfoil hat on, ESPN will certainly want it). I think there’s maybe a 4% chance of that, and that makes this an attractive punt at 40/1.