College Football Futures Bets- Week 7 2025
Week 6 couldn’t have gone much better for my futures bets. I marked in a ton on my Texas shorts with their loss to Florida. I also marked in on a bunch on Penn State shorts- I bet them to miss the playoff +140 right before their loss to UCLA.
New Bets
Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt West +475 (2 units)
Southern Miss is an interesting team this year. They were awful last year, but made a great hire in former Marshall coach Charles Huff. Huff actually led Marshall to the Sun Belt title last year but was chased out of town in a bizarre power struggle that reflected a lot worse on the school than him.
Huff is back at a different Sun Belt school and brought over 20 players with him. He has the Golden Eagles humming in year 1- they have two close losses to two good teams and three dominating wins over bad ones. The SBC West race is wide open after presumptive favorite Texas State lost as a two touchdown favorite last week and I like Southern Miss in that race.
Memphis to win the American +310 (1 unit)
Memphis looks like the best team in the G5 to me. They have an amazing run game and have a ton of talent on the lines, thanks to their G5-leading NIL budget. I bet the Tigers to go undefeated at +550 two weeks ago and am doubling down on this line.
Old Dominion to win the Sun Belt +200 (1 unit)
I’ve been a buyer of Old Dominion for a while now- we got them to make the playoff at 30/1 and them to win the Sun Belt East at +300 a few weeks ago. ODU and James Madison are the two best teams by far in the Sun Belt, and they’re both in the East, so only one can go to the conference title game.
I think ODU has pulled ahead of JMU and is the best team in the conference. Dual threat QB Colton Joseph has been a revelation this year, and the Monarchs have four blowout wins, including one at Virginia Tech. Their only loss is to Indiana, and that loss keeps looking better as the season goes along. I’m all aboard the Old Dominion hype train.
San Diego State to make the Mountain West title game +500 (1 unit)
San Diego State is starting to put things together in year two under HC Sean Lewis. The Aztecs shocked Cal 34-0 as a two touchdown underdog a few weeks ago. They then showed they can win lots of different ways by beating Northern Illinois 6-3 the following week.
SDSU’s talent is a lot better than most other Mountain West teams, because they have a decent amount of money and are serious NIL players at the G5 level. It showed last week when they demolished an awful Colorado State team.
Their schedule is also manageable- they avoid the number 2 team in the league (UNLV) and host the number 1 team (Boise State). I like a flier here.
Harvard to win FCS National Championship 30/1 (1 unit)
No, this is not a joke. Harvard has a lot more talent on their roster than you’d guess. They’re able to sign a handful of guys with low-P5/high-G5 talent who simply want to play at Harvard. This includes starting QB Jaden Craig, who is generating some NFL draft buzz. They’re consistently recruiting better than at least a dozen FBS teams.
I don’t have FCS teams in my model, but other models that I trust do have FCS, and they’re very bullish on Harvard. They’re second in FCS in SP+, third in KFord and seventh in Sagarin. It’s pretty surprising to me that they’re 30/1 to win the national title given that. This is the first year that Ivy League teams are participating in the FCS playoffs and I like what I see from the Crimson.
Nebraska to make the Playoff +1300 (0.5 units)
Nebraska has a real shot at the playoff. Their only loss is a close one to Michigan, and their season opening win against Cincinnati keeps looking better. They avoid the really good Big Ten teams (Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana) but have quality win opportunities against the second tier of the conference (USC, Penn State, Iowa). An 11-1 Nebraska team definitely gets in the playoff and a 10-2 team might.
Duke to make the Playoff +1800 (0.5 units)
Duke has looked great the last few weeks as QB Darian Mensah has regained his 2024 form. They just need to win the ACC to make the playoff (probably- there’s a slim chance they get left out winning the league). They’re already 3-0 in the league and will be in the ACC title game if they can beat fellow contenders Georgia Tech and Virginia (both games are at home and I make Duke a small favorite in each). Crazier things have happened than a Duke playoff berth.
Rooting Guide
Here are the most important games to follow in week 7 if you’ve been betting on my futures all season.
Oklahoma vs. Texas (-1.5): This is one of our biggest games of the year. We’re long Oklahoma (we’ll win 11 units if they make the playoff, and a further 6 if they win 10 games). We’re very short Texas- we’ll cash +140 on our under 9.5 wins bet if they lose this, and our bet on them to miss the playoff at +250 will look very good. Oklahoma QB John Mateer is questionable, although my guess is that he doesn’t play. If he does play, Oklahoma will likely become a small favorite. It’s also worth noting we have two units on Oklahoma +11.5 here from the preseason.
Indiana @ Oregon (-7.5): This is another huge game for us. We’ll make 12 units if Indiana makes the playoff and a further 3 if they win 10 games. We also have Indiana to win the Big Ten at +1500, and this game is almost a Big Ten semifinal- neither team plays Ohio State, and with Penn State out of the picture, the winner is very likely to play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. We also have two units on Indiana +14 in this game from the preseason.
Alabama (-3) @ Missouri: We are pretty long Alabama and this is a tricky road game. This line has been dropping all week- my model doesn’t like Missouri that much, but other computer models do.
Louisiana Tech (-5.5) @ Kennesaw State: We bet Louisiana Tech -5.5, but have a lot of exposure here from our futures bets as well.
Georgia (-3.5) @ Auburn: We have Georgia to miss the playoff at +198, we need them to lose an SEC road game or two like this somewhere along the way.
Jacksonville State (-7) @ Sam Houston State: We bet Jacksonville State -8.5, but have a good bit of exposure here from our futures bets as well.
Florida @ Texas A&M (-7.5): We’re pretty long Texas A&M and this is not a trivial game at home against resurgent Florida.
Troy @ Texas State (-8.5): We’re long Troy and this would be a nice win for us. A Troy win also helps out Southern miss a good bit.
Southern Miss (-3.5) @ Georgia Southern: Today’s bet on Southern Miss will be greatly helped with a win here.
Michigan @ USC (-2.5): We have a unit on Michigan to make the playoff and this is the big swing game that will define their season.
South Florida @ North Texas (-1.5): We are long both teams (at very good prices, I might add), but a bit longer North Texas. We’re rooting for the Mean Green here.
East Carolina @ Tulane (-7): We’re long both teams but a bit longer Tulane.
Other teams we are rooting for who are heavy favorites (>= 14 points) include, in order of importance, Old Dominion, Ohio State, Texas Tech, James Madison, Boise State and Ole Miss.