College Football Futures Bets- Week 6 2025

Week 5 was another good one for my futures bets. The biggest results were Ole Miss beating LSU and Alabama beating Georgia. We’re long Ole Miss and Alabama and short LSU and Georgia and marked in on all four legs- the LSU shorts in particular moved a lot in our favor.

New Bets

Penn State to miss the Playoff +140 (3 units)

I don’t think Penn State is on the same level as the elite teams in the sport. They’re down to seventh in my ratings after the loss to Oregon.

More importantly, I am not convinced a 10-2 Penn State team makes the playoff. It’s pretty likely they win exactly 10 games- the most likely scenario is that they lose at Ohio State and win the rest of their games. That would give them one good win (over Indiana) and likely no other ranked wins (unless Nebraska or Iowa sneaks into the top 25). They played absolutely no one in non-conference play, and also drew the dregs of the Big Ten in conference play (UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State). That makes for a light playoff resume.

If it comes down to a 10-2 Penn State or a 10-2 SEC team for the last playoff spot, Penn State will be on the outside looking in.

Texas A&M to make the Playoff -114 (2 units)

I got 2 units on Texas A&M to make the playoff at +245 in the preseason and am doubling down here. The Aggies are ninth in my ratings, and are already building a good playoff resume. Their win at Notre Dame is going to look amazing at the end of the year (I expect the Irish to finish 10-2 or 9-3). That makes A&M a playoff lock at 10-2, and I think they’ll get some consideration at 9-3. They also avoid my model’s three best SEC teams (Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss) in conference play- the slate is manageable by SEC standards.

Louisiana Tech to win CUSA +200 (2 units)

This is a strange line. Louisiana Tech might have the best defense in the G5- their defense has smothered other G5 teams and held LSU to only 23 points. They’re the best team in Conference USA- and the only teams that are close are Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State and Delaware. They don’t play Jacksonville State, and Delaware is ineligible for the conference title this year.

The only reason I’m not sizing this bet bigger is because I think HC Sonny Cumbie is a bit of a dumbass. Everyone in the industry expected him to be fired last year but it appears Louisiana Tech was too broke to fire him. However, it seems he has a good roster and the thousand pound gorilla of CUSA (Liberty) sucks this year. That opens a door for the Bulldogs.

Ohio State to win the Big Ten +180 (1 unit)

I’ve had Ohio State #1 in my ratings since the preseason and am not stopping now. Their offense has taken a step back, but their defense is terrifying. I expected their secondary to be elite, but their pass rush is unexpectedly the best in the country as well. They’re well set up from a tiebreaker perspective as well- if they win the Penn State game (which is at home), they’re very likely to make the Big Ten title game. They avoid both Indiana and Oregon in conference play.

Alabama to win the SEC +320 (1 unit)

I bet Alabama to win the SEC at +500 in the preseason and I’m back for more. The talent is obviously there. Encouragingly, OC Ryan Grubb appears to be back in his groove now that he’s back in college after a brief stint with the Seahawks. He really emptied the bag of tricks against Georgia last week.

This is the most talented roster in the sport outside of Columbus, Ohio, and they already have a win over Georgia. Their toughest remaining games (Oklahoma, LSU) are at home. They’re the clear SEC favorite.

Toledo to win the MAC +360 (1 unit)

I bet on Toledo to win the MAC at +185 a few weeks ago, and then they lost a stupid game to Western Michigan. That’s unfortunate, but Toledo has a habit of being the best team in the MAC and then losing a stupid game somewhere. It doesn’t change my belief that this is the most talented team in the conference. Does anyone else in the MAC have a 200 yard/game rushing attack led by a former Ohio State RB?

Louisville to make the Playoff +610 (1 unit)

Everyone keeps forgetting about Jeff Brohm’s Louisville. They started the season nearly ranked, and are now 4-0- having performed right in line with the spread in every game so far. I’m a bit perplexed that they’re not ranked in the AP Poll, and not even among the first few teams out either.

Their next two games- home to Virginia and at Miami- are huge. A split there keeps them in good shape for the second spot in the ACC title game. Their November schedule also looks much easier than it did in the preseason with Clemson, Virginia Tech, SMU and Kentucky all underperforming.

Rooting Guide

Here are the most important games to follow in week 6 if you’ve been betting on my futures all season.

Texas (-7) @ Florida: We’re really short Texas. So far, so good- they lost to Ohio State and then beat a bunch of cupcakes. This is their first real game in a month, and an upset here would make our shorts deep in the money.

Western Kentucky @ Delaware (-2.5): This is a huge one for us. We have Western Kentucky under 7.5 wins. We are also implicitly short WKU from our longs on Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State. We also have Delaware to win 10+ games at +2100, and that is very much alive if they win this one.

Miami (-4.5) @ Florida State: We’re long both teams but longer Miami. We have Miami to go undefeated at +280 and that’ll be around even money if they win this game.

Sam Houston State (-2.5) @ New Mexico State: We have New Mexico State over 4.5 wins. That’s around a coin flip right now, and this game is also a coin flip.

UNLV (-3.5) @ Wyoming. We have 5 units on UNLV under 8.5 wins. The good news is they’ve looked bad so far this season. They bad news is they’re undefeated because they keep pulling rabbits out of their hat. We’re out of the money and need them to lose games like this.

Texas Tech (-12.5) @ Houston: We are pretty long Texas Tech. The market agrees with us- their odds to make the playoff have moved from +205 (where we bet) to +120 without them playing a game.

Clemson (-14) @ North Carolina: We have some wing puts on North Carolina. The good news is those puts are becoming closer to at the money as they keep looking awful.

Boise State @ Notre Dame (-20.5): We’re long both teams to make the playoff but a Boise State win would definitely be good for us.

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (-14): We now have 4 units on A&M to make the playoff and need them to take care of business here.

Central Michigan (-8.5) @ Akron: Our bet on CMU over 5.5 wins is looking solid and will look even better with a win here.

Kansas (-5) @ UCF: We’re long some wing calls on UCF that will decay a good bit with a loss here.

Kentucky @ Georgia (-20.5): We’re pretty short Georgia. They inexplicably struggled with Kentucky last year and a repeat of that would be great.

James Madison (-19.5) @ Georgia State: We have two units on JMU to win the Sun Belt at +400- it’s around +110 now. They’ll be big favorites in several upcoming games, we need them to keep taking care of business.

Vanderbilt @ Alabama (-10.5): We’re long both teams- it’s not clear to me what result we’d prefer. A Vanderbilt win would certainly be funnier.