College Football Picks- Week 6 2025
Futures*: +5.13 units
Week 0: -3 units
Week 1: -2.57 units
Week 2: +2.61 units
Week 3: +1.05 units
Week 4: +3.43 units
Week 5: -3.13 units
Season Total: +3.52 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
Last week was mixed for my weekly picks- Syracuse had the doors blown off at home by Duke. Mississippi State, meanwhile, covered easily and lost in OT as a +285 ML underdog. Not the best week, but if that’s what counts as a down week, I’ll take it.
Colorado State @ San Diego State (Friday, 9:30 PM Central)
Colorado State is a low-key awful situation right now. Their only win is over FCS Northern Colorado, and they only won that game after being bailed out by the refs on an awful call to end the game. They got killed last week at home by a bad Washington State team.
San Diego State, meanwhile, is finally turning things around under HC Sean Lewis. They were uncharacteristically bad last year, but this is a program that recruits pretty well and has the talent to be one of the better teams in the Mountain West. They should be a bigger favorite here.
San Diego State -6.5 -115 (1 unit)
Clemson @ North Carolina (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
In the preseason, I bet North Carolina under 3.5 wins bet at +1600. My thesis was that Bill Belichick might just give up on the Tar Heels if things start going poorly, and thus their downside tail was a lot fatter than other similar teams.
That thesis looks pretty strong now- the Tar Heels have been non-competitive in two games against P4 teams. It’s also worth noting that other college coaches are pretty annoyed with Belichick waltzing into their sport and pretending he knows how everything works. UCF kept the starters in for longer than you’d expect and I think that Dabo will do the same- CFB coaches feel disrespected by Belichick and want to run up the score on him.
Clemson -26.5 +346 (1 unit)
Syracuse @ SMU (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)
Yes, it’s Syracuse again. I know I got killed betting on the Orange last week, but the thesis is a bit different this time. I don’t think backup QB Rickie Collins was that bad last week- he threw for 6.2 yards/attempt. The problem was that his receivers lost two fumbles and three trips inside the Duke 25 resulted in three points. Syracuse was the worse team, but fumble luck and red zone woes are pretty funky.
I think everyone is writing off Syracuse because they got blown out in the first game with the backup QB. I’m happy to buy another wing call on Syracuse as I think the market has overreacted on them.
Syracuse ML +470 (0.5 units)