College Football Futures Bets- Week 5 2025
Last week went well for my futures bets but nearly went very well. I marked in on North Texas longs and Oklahoma State shorts. I marked out a good bit on my Oklahoma longs with QB John Mateer’s injury- it’s not clear when he’ll be back.
New Bets
Indiana to make the Playoff +198 (3 units)
Indiana to win the Big Ten +1500 (1 unit)
I’ve been high on Indiana for some time- I bet them to make the playoff at +630 in the preseason. (Of course, I also had the Hoosiers to make the playoff at 30/1 last year). They’re up to fifth in my ratings after a dominating win over Illinois. It’s not just my computer that’s so high on them- they’re seventh in SP+ and sixth in FPI.
Based on that, it doesn’t make sense to me that they’re still +198 to make the playoff. They have to go to both Penn State and Oregon. They likely have to win one of those games to make the playoff- they’l be around a six point underdog in both. The Hoosiers’ ceiling is higher than it was last year.
Texas Tech to make the Playoff +205 (2 units)
Texas Tech to win the Big 12 +270 (1 unit)
Texas Tech was a pretty high volatility team in the preseason. The bull case on them was clear- they brought in the best transfer class in the country (especially on the lines), and their raw talent is the highest in the Big 12. The bear case on them was also clear- maybe all the big money transfers wouldn’t gel.
A month into the season, it looks pretty clear that we’re in the bull case. Texas Tech physically dominated Utah on the road last week- famously not an easy team to physically dominate! QB Behren Morton is hurt, but I think backup Will Hammond might be better. Texas Tech’s ceiling is very high given the talent on this roster and I’m buying the Red Raiders.
Miami to go undefeated +280 (2 units)
Miami’s bull case has also been clear. The Hurricanes have a ton of talent. EDGE Reuben Bain looks like the best defender in the country and is an easy top 10 pick in the NFL draft. QB Carson Beck has taken a big step forward- his 2024 struggles look more like a Mike Bobo problem than a Carson Beck problem.
Miami might drop a stupid game somewhere, because at the end of the day, this is still a Mario Cristobal team. But I like buying a wing call on the “Canes- they are so much more talented than the rest of the ACC and they might just dominate the rest of their schedule.
Memphis to go undefeated +550 (2 units)
You’ll notice a common theme in this article- Memphis also has money. They have the biggest NIL budget in the G5, thanks to the late FedEx founder Fred Smith. It shows on this roster- especially in the trenches. They ran for nearly 300 yards against an SEC defense last week when they played Arkansas. Memphis has a relatively easy schedule by AAC standards and might be able to bully teams to a 12-0 finish.
Ole Miss to make the Playoff +145 (1 unit)
I was a seller of Ole Miss in the preseason but I have flipped to becoming a buyer. The Rebels have played themselves into a QB controversy- Austin Simmons got hurt a few weeks ago and backup Trinidad Chambliss has been electric in his place. I think Ole Miss is in a good position no matter who plays going forwards, and their schedule is one of the easiest in the SEC. 10-2 will be enough to make the playoff and Ole Miss is a bit better than a coin flip to get there.
Michigan to make the Playoff +410 (1 unit)
Michigan’s season looked lost after the Oklahoma loss. Since then, they took care of Nebraska on the road (the close final score is misleading- they were the better team by far), and Oklahoma keeps looking better. Michigan still has tough games against USC, Washington and Ohio State. If they finish 10-2, they should get in. Now that they’re back in the teens in my ratings, that certainly looks possible.
Rooting Guide- Week 5
I’ve placed so many futures bets this year (nearly 100 now!) that keeping track of everything is tough. I’m now publishing a weekly rooting guide- so if you’ve been betting on my picks all year, you know what to pay attention to this weekend. These are roughly ordered by importance.
LSU @ Ole Miss (-1.5): We’re long Ole Miss and short LSU. Fun fact- Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss came from D2 Ferris State. LSU HC Brian Kelly got his start coaching at D2 Grand Valley State- Ferris State’s archival. A fun subplot to monitor for my fellow Michiganders.
Indiana (-8.5) @ Iowa: This line has steadily moved in Indiana’s favor all week as everyone catches up to how good the Hoosiers are.
Alabama @ Georgia (-2.5): We have Georgia to miss the playoff and Alabama to win the SEC. An Alabama win here might be a prerequisite for both.
South Alabama @ North Texas (-12.5): Our North Texas +3000 to make the playoff bet from last week is already +600 or so. We want them to keep winning.
Oregon @ Penn State (-3.5): I bet Penn State -4 in this game in the preseason. We have some more short exposure on Oregon as well.
San Jose State @ Stanford (-3): Our Stanford longs are nearly hopeless. We need them to win this to have any hope.
Duke (-4.5) @ Syracuse: We’re long some very far wing calls on Syracuse, we would need a win here to keep it alive.
Bowling Green @ Ohio (-7.5): We have Ohio to win the MAC and this is one of the biggest games on their schedule.
Ohio State (-8.5) @ Washington: We have Ohio State to go undefeated. This is one of the tougher games on their schedule- and the line has been dropping all week.
Western Kentucky (-4.5) @ Missouri State: We are synthetically short WKU from our bets on Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State. An upset here would be awesome.
TCU @ Arizona State (-3): We’re long both these teams but longer TCU.
Louisiana Tech (-3.5) @ UTEP: We have Louisiana Tech to win CUSA- they need to take care of business in games like this to do that.
Liberty @ Old Dominion (-14.5): We bought some wing calls on Old Dominion that look good. We need them to take care of business.
New Mexico State @ New Mexico (-14.5): We’re long New Mexico State and short New Mexico. An upset here would be awesome.