College Football Picks- Week 5 2025

Futures*: -2.39 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Week 4: +3.43 units

Season Total: -0.87 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week went well, but it could have gone much better. Both of the wing bets I did for half a unit (Tulsa ML and UCF -20.5) hit, while the one I had for a full unit (Miami -20.5) came very close as the Hurricanes won by 19. I also marked in a few units on my futures, mostly on Oklahoma State losing and North Texas winning.

Duke @ Syracuse (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Syracuse pulled off a massive upset last week on the road against Clemson. Fran Brown is in his second year as Syracuse HC and it couldn’t be going much better- the Orange finished ranked in year 1 and look good in year 2.

Duke, meanwhile, beat NC State last week in a completely fraudulent win. NC State couldn’t stop turning the ball over and was the better team for most of the game.

Unfortunately, Syracuse QB Steve Angeli tore his Achilles against Clemson and is out for the season. Backup QB Rickie Collins steps in- he’s a former four star who was the backup at LSU before transferring to Syracuse. He has only 21 pass attempts in his career but he does have some recruit pedigree.

Syracuse has a solid roster and was physically more impressive than Clemson in the trenches. I like the Orange a good bit and am also buying some wing calls on them- there’s a chance Rickie Collins is just good, we simply don’t know yet.

Syracuse +6.5 -102 (2 units)

Syracuse ML +198 (1 unit)

Syracuse to make the ACC title game 30/1 (0.5 units)

Tennessee @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 3:15 PM Central)

I expected Mississippi State to be awful this year. They were my clear pick for the basement of the SEC in the preseason. They have proved me wrong with a nice win over Arizona State and a dominating road win against a decent Southern Miss team.

The whole SEC is a lot more clustered together than people realize. There’s really not many matchups in this league where one team should be a double digit road favorite- 14/16 SEC teams are between 7th and 35th in my ratings. Mississippi State has the talent to hang in this game at home. This year’s Tennessee team also does not have the explosive offense to blow the doors off people the way the Joe Milton and Hendon Hooker teams did.

Mississippi State +10.5 -115 (1 unit)

Mississippi State ML +285 (1 unit)