College Football Futures Bets- Week 4 2025
We lost a bit on our existing futures last week, mostly led by New Mexico beating UCLA (I was in attendance- it was one of the most entertaining games I’ve seen in person in a long time). We were short both teams, but shorter New Mexico, so mark out around 3.5 units there.
New Picks
Old Dominion to win Sun Belt East +300 (2 units)
Old Dominion to make the Playoff +3000 (0.5 units)
I had Old Dominion +13.5 last week. The line closed at 5.5! That’s some of the craziest line movement I’ve ever seen. I regret not playing the ML.
The fun doesn’t stop there for my Monarchs. I am very high on them and think they have one of the highest ceilings in the G5. QB Colton Joseph has taken a massive step forward in his sophomore year and is grading out as one of the best in the G5. He is surrounded by a great offense- ODU went the JUCO route with their skill positions and it has paid off handsomely this off-season.
The Sun Belt East is going to come down to Old Dominion and James Madison. I think the teams are comparable. I also like buying some wing calls here- a 12-1 Old Dominion team (whose only loss would be to a ranked Indiana) has a very good shot at the playoff.
Toledo to win the MAC +185 (2 units)
There’s one name to know in Toledo- RB Chip Trayanum. The former Ohio State product is finally healthy and is averaging over six yards per carry for one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Toledo always hasthe most talented roster in the MAC (they’re the richest team in the MAC- no coincidence there).
The MAC is going to be a 2 horse race between Toledo and Ohio. They don’t play in the regular season, and we’re already long Ohio to win the MAC at +250. I like adding some on the Rockets.
LSU to miss the Playoff +168 (1 unit)
The computer models do not like LSU- mine included. The Tigers are 8th in my ratings, and 17th (!) in SP+. This line is too anchored to their #3 rankings in the AP Poll. Their offense was horrendous against Florida- they had a ton of short fields thanks to DJ Lagway’s 5 INTs and the offense only managed 13 points (the defense pitched in with a pick-six). I wouldn’t be surprised to see them be a small dog at Ole Miss in two weeks.
Miami to win the ACC +170 (1 unit)
The models, on the other hand, do like Miami. Carson Beck looks much better this year (did he have a Mike Bobo problem?). The Canes look amazing on both lines as well. There very well could be a head-scratching Mario Cristobal-fueled loss somewhere (November 29th against Pitt, anyone?) but this is the best team in the ACC and no one is close.
Louisiana Tech to win Conference USA +425 (1 unit)
Someone’s got to win Conference USA. Last week I bet on Jax State to do it, this week it’s Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs beat the brakes off NMSU last week, and avoid fellow CUSA contender Jax State in conference play.
North Texas to make the Playoff +3000 (1 unit)
East Carolina to make the Playoff +5000 (0.25 units)
These two bets go together. The thesis is as follows:
(a) The American is by far the best G5 conference this year. The G5 team in the playoff will very likely be the winner of The American- the other realistic contenders are James Madison, Old Dominion and Boise State- but all have a loss already.
(b) North Texas and East Carolina have much longer odds to make the playoff than to win the conference (+750 and +1500 respectively). I think that if they win the league, they are likely to make the playoff.
(c) I like both teams. North Texas is led by HC Eric Morris who is an offensive guru (he was the HC at Incarnate Word who found an un-recruited 1 star named Cam Ward). The shocking thing about UNT is that they appear to have a defense for the first time in years. ECU has an exciting QB in Katin Houser and the best skill talent they’ve seen in years.
California to make the ACC Title Game +1700 (0.5 units)
I have watched more Cal football in my life than anyone should be subjected to. Not since Jared Goff was in Berkeley have I been as excited by a Cal QB as I am by true freshman Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele. Cal beat out Oregon for JKS and he has been brilliant through three weeks. Cal has one of the easiest schedules in the ACC and will be favored in their next six games. JKS gives the Golden Bears an upside that they haven’t had in a decade.
Vanderbilt to make the Playoff +1260 (0.5 units)
Vanderbilt was a fun story this year. This year they are just good. They killed South Carolina 31-7 on the road this week, and were beating them badly even before LaNorris Sellers got hurt. The Commodores are into the top 20 of my model. While the schedule is brutal, I think that this line is too juicy for a top 20 team.
Rooting Guide
If you’ve been betting my futures all season, here’s what you should be rooting for this week. These are ordered in rough order of importance.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State (-13.5): Not only do we have Tulsa ML, but a Tulsa win would put our OK State under 4.5 wins tickets massively in the money.
Auburn @ Oklahoma (-6.5): Oklahoma is looking good a few weeks in. Over 6.5 wins is looking very solid and a win here would send the Sooners’ playoff odds to near 50% (we have +550).
UNLV (-2.5) @ Miami (OH): This is a huge game for us. We have UNLV under 8.5 wins and need them to lose games like this. The line movement is in our favor- this opened around -6 and was quickly bet down.
Tulane @ Ole Miss (-11.5): Tulane would become the undisputable G5 playoff favorite with a win here. We have them to make the playoff at +750.
North Texas (-1.5) @ Army: Our North Texas longs will pick up a lot of steam with a win here.
Troy @ Buffalo (-6): Our Troy over 5.5 wins ticket is around a coin flip right now. An upset here would be great.
Boise State (-10) @ Air Force: We need Boise to take care of business in games like this- it’s their first FBS opponents since the week 1 loss to South Florida.
NC State @ Duke (-3): Our Duke shorts are looking good after they were dominated by Tulane. A loss here would help us even more.
Michigan (-2.5) @ Nebraska: We have Nebraska to make the playoff. That likely requires a win here.
Stanford @ Virginia (-15.5): I had written off our Stanford longs, and then they surprised BC as a 2 touchdown underdog. Let’s see if they can keep it going.
Delaware @ FIU (-6.5): I have some hope for our Delaware 10+ wins ticket. It would require a win here.
Arkansas (-7) @ Memphis: We’re long Arkansas and implicitly short Memphis by being long other teams in the American. Once again, the line movement is on our side- this line opened at Arkansas -4 and has been steadily bid up.
Fresno State (-3) @ Hawaii: If Boise State stumbles, our other long in the Mountain West is Fresno State.
Illinois @ Indiana (-4.5): We are long both teams but a bit longer Indiana.