College Football Picks Week 4 2025

Futures*: -6.55 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Week 3: +1.05 units

Season Total: -10.19 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week felt like it could’ve gone a lot better than it did. I had Georgia Tech +6.5, Old Dominion +13.5 and Delaware +10.5. All three won outright. The two games where I had the ML underdog (Tennessee and South Florida), the underdog didn’t win (although Tennessee came awfully close).

Despite the mediocre start to the year, I am still pretty happy with how the model is performing. I am routinely generating a ton of closing line value on both my weekly picks and my futures. That’s a much more stable signal than PnL this early in the season. The PnL will come soon.

In addition to the picks below, I have TCU -4 (I got that last week, it’s TCU -6.5 now) and Washington State +10.5 and +11.5 (I got that in June- it’s +19.5 now).

North Carolina @ UCF (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

This line moved in a hurry- I snatched up 3.5 right when it got listed and it went to 6.5 within a few minutes. North Carolina has avoided disaster the last two weeks against Charlotte and Richmond, but both of those teams suck. UCF might start backup QB Tayven Jackson here if starter Cam Fancher is not able to go. To be honest, I slightly prefer Jackson, but both of them give UCF a significant leg up here.

I am also trying something new here and putting a little bit on UCF alt line. I historically haven’t played alt lines but given what we saw in week 1, North Carolina has a much higher than normal chance of a complete implosion.

UCF -3.5 -110 (2 units)

UCF -20.5 +400 (0.5 units)

James Madison @ Liberty (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Liberty has been a disappointment this year, losing back to back games against Jacksonville State and Bowling Green by a touchdown each. This is the opportunity to buy the dip on Liberty. The Flames have a lot more talent than we’ve seen so far- they have so much more money than most G5 programs and have the depth to match.

Liberty +11.5 -105 (1 unit)

Liberty ML +360 (0.5 units)

BYU @ East Carolina (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

I am pretty intrigued by what I see from East Carolina this year (they’ll be making a return appearance in my futures bets later this week). I am impressed with QB Katin Houser- advanced stats systems are salivating over the former Michigan State product this year. ECU has always leveraged their low academic standards to bring in a ton of junior college guys and they’ve done a great job with that this year, especially on defense. I’m not fully convinced by BYU (their QB situation is one of the worst in the P4) and this line is too big.

East Carolina +9.5 -110 (1 unit)

Florida @ Miami (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

My model believes in Miami. They were very convincing against South Florida last week and are playing like a top 5 team in the country. I’m only playing the alt line here- Florida has some real quit risk that I want to take advantage of. The Gators are off to a 1-2 start and with all the rumors flying around the program there’s a chance that HC Billy Napier has totally lost the team. Miami would love to put a beating on their in-state rivals and has the talent to do it.

Miami -20.5 +333 (1 unit)

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State (Friday, 6:30 PM Central)

I’ll be honest- Tulsa is bad. The good news here is that Oklahoma State is also bad. OK State has lost countless games to bad teams in recent years (the 33-7 home demolition to South Alabama two year ago comes to mind). With a Mike Gundy team, you never really know how low the floor might be. I like a flier on Tulsa ML.

Tulsa ML +440 (0.5 units)