College Football Futures Bets- Week 3 2025
I promised my readers in the off-season that I would be placing more futures bets this year. I made a ton betting futures last year, and I feel pretty strongly that it is where I have the most edge relative to the rest of the market. I included a few futures bets in my last post (e.g. Jacksonville State to win CUSA) but I made a bunch more this week that I’ll explain below.
Futures Bets- Week 3
Oklahoma State under 4.5 wins -118 (3 units)
I bet Oklahoma State under 4.5 wins +140 in the preseason. All the Cowboys have done since is (a) get vaporized 69-3 by Oregon (b) have their starting QB get injured against UT Martin. HC Mike Gundy has spent the last two weeks complaining about how little money he has to spend on his roster and he looks like a man ready to give up on his team. I think things are going to get real bad in Stillwater and I am shocked this line is still 4.5. OK State might be the worst team in the Power Five.
UCLA under 3.5 wins -140 (2 units)
UCLA has looked awful through two weeks. Transfer QB Nico Iamaleava is doing what he can given the circumstances, but the fact of the matter is that his offensive line is a dumpster fire. He nearly led a comeback last week against UNLV before throwing a game-losing interception directly at a linebacker.
I will be in attendance tonight at the Rose Bowl as UNLV takes on New Mexico. That will likely be the only game they’re favored in the rest of the way. I simply do not see four wins on this schedule.
Ole Miss to make the Playoff +300 (1 unit)
I bet Ole Miss to miss the playoff at -176 in June. The fact that I can get out of that trade for a scalp now is shocking to me. The Rebels have looked great through two weeks, and QB Austin Simmons is generating a ton of hype in Oxford. The Rebels looked solid at Kentucky last week (a stark contrast from their disastrous home loss to Kentucky last year) and are in the top 10 of several computers (and 14th in mine). This has been a strong start to the season for Lane Kiffin’s squad and I am happy to flatten my exposure here for a net win.
Illinois to make the Playoff +630 (1 unit)
I know a lot of Illini fans and I have been talking down about Bret Bielema’s squad for months. It is time for me to change my tune. Illinois is not the #9 team in the country like the AP Poll suggests, but they looked pretty impressive against Duke last week. Their schedule is extremely manageable and I have them around 25% to make the playoff- making this an easy bet.
Nebraska to make the Playoff +790 (1 unit)
If you want to talk about soft Big Ten schedules, look no further than Nebraska. The Cornhuskers avoid Ohio State and Oregon and play several of the Big Ten’s worst teams. I also like buying wing calls on teams with exciting QBs. Dylan Raiola clearly has some upside tail- if he plays like the high-end 5 star he is, then Nebraska could easily win every game on the schedule except for Penn State. Nebraska is only a 1.5 point dog at home to Michigan next weekend.
UCF to win 8+ games +320 (1 unit)
UCF is experimenting a bit at quarterback. They have a few exciting options on their roster with former Marshall QB Cam Fancher and former Indiana QB Tayven Jackson. Whoever ends up leading the team will have an incredibly manageable schedule coming up, including a home game against Bill Belichick’s UNC.
Arkansas to win 8+ games +390 (1 unit)
Arkansas has looked impressive through two weeks and has moved into my model’s top 25. Their schedule is brutal (a full SEC slate, plus non-conference games against Memphis and Notre Dame). However, there’s enough talent on this roster, including QB Taylen Green, that my model thinks there is a decent bull case in Fayetteville.
SMU @ TCU (Week 4)
There’s a few lookahead lines listed for next week, and this one was interesting to me. I’m already long TCU (I have them to make the playoff at +920 and +500) and short SMU. The Horned Frogs’ offense looked amazing in week 1 and I’m bullish on QB Josh Hoover. I expect this line to drift up to a touchdown or so once it gets re-listed.
TCU -4 -110 (1 unit)
Fresno State to win the Mountain West +1000 (0.5 units)
The Mountain West as a whole has looked awful through two weeks of the season. You can tell from the fact that Boise State was -125 to win the league in the offseason, got killed by South Florida, and is still -125 to win the league. The only team that has really impressed me is Fresno State, who has won two coin flip games against Oregon State and Georgia Southern. The Bulldogs have a lot more talent than the rest of the league (save Boise State) and are worth a lottery ticket at 10/1.
Auburn to win the SEC +2500 (0.5 units)
I am still not bought in on Hugh Freeze. He will probably find a way for Auburn to lose some games in stupid fashion. However, there is enough talent on this roster (Cam Coleman, Jackson Arnold etc.) that the top end of the distribution for Auburn is pretty exciting. In a crowded SEC with no clear team at the top, I like this lottery ticket on the Tigers.
Rooting Guide- Week 3
This year, I’m publishing a weekly rooting guide. I have so many futures plays that if you’re betting all of them, keeping track of your exposure can be difficult. Below is a quick guide of what you want to root for this week:
Saturday 11 AM Central:
Clemson (-3) @ Georgia Tech: We bet on Georgia Tech +6.5 here, but have a lot of long exposure on Clemson. I’d be happy with either result.
Memphis (-4) @ Troy: We have Troy over 5.5 wins. The Trojans have looked pretty good through two weeks, and winning this game as a home dog would put us significantly in the money.
Saturday 2:30 PM Central:
Georgia (-4) @ Tennessee: We bet on Tennessee ML and have other short exposure on Georgia as well.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss (-6.5): This would be a great win for our Arkansas longs.
Saturday Evening:
Florida @ LSU (-7): It might surprise you that LSU is only a 7 point favorite here, but the computers don’t like them that much. A Gators win would be really nice for us.
Texas A&M @ Notre Dame (-6.5): We are long both these teams and it’s not clear which result we’d prefer.
Minnesota (-2.5) @ California: We are long Minnesota and they have looked great through two weeks, but this is their first real test.