College Football Picks Week 3 2025

Futures*: -0.54 units

Week 0: -3 units

Week 1: -2.57 units

Week 2: +2.61 units

Season Total: -3.50 units

*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate

Last week went pretty well. I hit on USF ML +650 (would’ve been nice if I bet a full unit there instead of half a unit!) and my futures did decently as well. Oklahoma looked quite good against Michigan, and my preseason bets on the Sooners are looking pretty good- I have them to make the playoff at +550.

Before going into my picks for the week, I will warn you that I made these bets on Sunday. There was an enormous amount of line movement on some of these picks this week and some of these lines are definitely not available in the market anymore. I’ve noticed an increasing value in the last year of getting my picks down right when the lines open. In the future I’ll try writing up my picks earlier in the week, but given how much lines move on Sunday mornings, you need to be very prompt to get the best prices.

Week 3 Picks

Duke @ Tulane (Saturday, 7 PM Central)

I’ve been on the Tulane bandwagon for a while now- I have the Green Wave to win the American +390 and them to make the playoff +750 (both bets are pretty significantly in the money now). This is an intriguing matchup as former Tulane QB Darian Mensah transferred to Duke in the off-season and this is a homecoming game for him. Tulane has one of the most talented rosters in the Group of Five and Duke could not get out of their own way against Illinois last week. I think Tulane should be a decent favorite here.

It’s not just that I like Tulane- I also think Duke is overrated. The top end of their roster (Mensah, WR Andrel Anthony) is good but their overall talent score is quite low. Duke was way worse than their record last year and is going to take a significant step back this season

Tulane -2.5 -110 (2 units)

Duke under 6.5 wins +120 (1 unit)

Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Jacksonville State. Former HC Rich Rodriguez went back to West Virginia. Jax State made a very shrewd hire in Charles Kelly- he’s a first time head coach at 58 years old, but has extended stints at Alabama and Auburn on his resume. He knows the Gamecocks’ home state of Alabama like the back of his hand and has found some good players no one else wanted.

Georgia Southern, meanwhile, is having a disappointing season. The Eagles were killed by Fresno State week 1. They were supposed to be contenders in the Sun Belt East, but look like the third best team in the division at best. HC Clay Helton’s seat is starting to get warm.

I’m really high on Jax State. I’m also low on some of the other contenders in CUSA (Liberty, Western Kentucky). I’m doubling up on my exposure to the Gamecocks.

Jacksonville State +6.5 -110 (2 units)

Jacksonville State to win Conference USA +550 (2 units)

Clemson @ Georgia Tech (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Clemson has looked very shaky through two weeks. The Tigers struggled with Troy last week and have fallen down to 11th in my power ratings. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, beat Colorado on the road in week 1 despite awful turnover luck. I’ve liked the Yellow Jackets all season, and if they win this game, their schedule is extremely manageable until a Black Friday showdown against Georgia.

Georgia Tech +6.5 -110 (1 unit)

Georgia @ Tennessee (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

I’ve been low on Georgia all season- I bet the Dawgs to miss the playoff at +198 back in June. They have done nothing to impress so far, looking sluggish against two awful teams.

Tennessee, meanwhile, has put on two impressive offensive performances in two weeks. Josh Heupel appears to be moving away from his traditional formation with extremely wide splits and running more of a typical shotgun look. The Volunteers have adapted to QB Joey Aguilar and are running an offense more similar to what he saw at App State, and they’ve looked great doing it.

This line has moved in my favor a ton since Sunday. I regret not betting more here.

Tennessee ML +215 (1 unit)

Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

I have never seen more aggressive line movement on a bet than I did here. I bet Old Dominion +13.5 right when I saw the line get listed on DraftKings on Sunday morning. Within an hour the line was +8.5. 13.5 was simply an incorrect line (and I should have bet more). Virginia Tech is an awful situation right now- HC Brent Pry is odds-on to be fired by year end. Old Dominion, meanwhile, is finally putting something together under Ricky Rahne and could challenge for the Sun Belt.

Old Dominion +13.5 -110 (1 unit)

South Florida @ Miami (FL) (Saturday, 3:30 PM Central)

How good is South Florida? No one really knows- there’s significant disagreement between computer systems right now. It really depends on how tightly you hold onto your preseason priors. The Bulls are up to 35th in my power ratings, the top rated team in the Group of Five.

I like USF, and I’m purposefully only betting the moneyline here. There’s some decent upside tail to their distribution given what we’ve seen through the first two weeks and I think that is underpriced by the market.

South Florida ML +525 (0.5 units)