College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 13 2025
Last week was another good one for my futures and I’m now up 50 units on the year. My Texas shorts, after coming close to cashing against Kentucky and Mississippi State, finally are coming home to roost after the loss to Georgia.
I only have a few new bets this week- we’re mostly just crossing our fingers and rooting on the teams we’ve been betting all season.
New Bets
Oregon to make the Playoff -250 (9 units)
9 units? Have I lost my mind? Fear not- I don’t actually think there’s 9 units of edge here. I do think this is a bit mispriced, and I bet Oregon to miss the playoff at +220 for 4 units back in June. I think this should be around -290, so I am taking the opportunity to close out of my position for only a small loss.
SMU to miss the Playoff -425 (8 units)
This is the same principle as the Oregon bet. I bet a unit on SMU to make the playoff at +1200 last week, and it has moved a ton in my favor- both because SMU won, but also because Duke lost to Virginia. The Mustangs are very likely to make the playoff if they win the ACC, but they don’t control their own destiny in the ACC and they still have to play a tough Louisville team. I think this should be around -700 or so.
James Madison to make the Playoff +170 (2 units)
This was supposed to be like the Oregon and SMU trades, but it has gone sideways. I made this bet before the playoff committee revealed their rankings on Sunday. In those rankings, Tulane was shockingly ranked while JMU wasn’t- sending James Madison to make the playoff tumbling to +440. It would’ve been nice if I had waited to close my bet.
Texas Tech to miss the Playoff +980 (1 unit)
As I’ll discuss in my playoff preview column this week, the odds that we’re headed to a significant playoff logjam ticked up a good bit last week. The conventional wisdom is that Texas Tech will make the playoff even if they lose the Big 12 title game. In a scenario where we have a bevy of 2 loss Big Ten and SEC teams, I’m not so sure.
Duke to win the ACC 100/1 (1 unit)
This is a classic bet of mine- a tiebreaker bet. Most people assumed Duke was dead in the ACC race after losing to Virginia. They’d be wrong. The dream of an 8-5 ACC champion lives on- and here’s what it requires. We need Duke to win out against UNC and Wake Forest, and have two of SMU/Georgia Tech/Virginia take a loss. Then we need an (admittedly crappy) Duke team to win the ACC title. It’s unlikely, but it shouldn’t be 100/1.
Rooting Guide
Missouri @ Oklahoma (-5.5):
If Oklahoma wins out, we’ll win 11 units. Unfortunately for us, this line has dropped significantly this week with the news that Missouri QB Beau Pribula is returning to action (only three weeks after being carted off the field in an air cast!).
Jacksonville State @ FIU (-1.5):
We’re down to 3 contenders in CUSA- Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky. We win 11, 3.4 and 0 units respectively if each of those teams wins the league. Jax State can clinch a spot in the title game with a win and a Kennesaw State loss.
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech (-2.5):
We’re long Duke, Virginia, Miami and SMU. Georgia Tech is in the way of all of those teams- a Yellow Jackets loss helps all of our ACC positions.
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt (-8.5):
We’ll make 17 units if Vanderbilt makes the playoff. That requires two more wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, and maybe a little bit of help too. This line has been dropping given Kentucky’s improved recent form.
Duke (-7) @ North Carolina:
My Duke to win the ACC bet at 100/1 is already marking quite well. It does require them to win these last two games, but that’s not trivial against an improving UNC team.
North Texas (-17.5) @ Rice:
Our single biggest exposure is on North Texas. We have a unit on the Mean Green to make the playoff at 30/1. They’re 3 wins away from the playoff- and while this is a big spread, Rice runs a strange offense and it’s a road game.
California (-3.5) @ Stanford
This is it for our Stanford bet. We have the Cardinal over 3.5 wins at +140- they have one game against this, but it’s against Notre Dame. This is their last realistic shot at a fourth win for us to cash our ticket.
Tulane (-9.5) @ Temple:
Even if North Texas doesn’t win the American, we’re still in a decent spot because we’re also long the next most likely team (Tulane). This is a very losable game for the Green Wave though, and a loss here eliminates them from the playoff.
BYU (-2.5) @ Cincinnati:
We want Cincinnati to win here- it will help us for two reasons. First, it lowers the chance of 2 Big 12 teams in the playoff (we have Big 12 under 1.5 playoff teams). It also helps Utah’s chances at the conference title, and we win 20 units if they win the league.
Washington State @ James Madison (-14):
We might have closed our James Madison to miss the playoff position, but we have other positions (SMU, East Carolina) that would benefit from a JMU loss.
Minnesota @ Northwestern (-3.5):
We need Minnesota to pick up one win in their final two games to cash our over 6.5 wins ticket on the Gophers.
Washington (-10.5) @ UCLA:
We have UCLA under 3.5 wins, and they have 3 wins to date. This is their best chance for a fourth win, as they play USC next weekend.
Other big favorites we’re rooting for include Utah (-17.5), Michigan (-14), Boise State (-17.5) and San Diego State (-12.5)