College Football Picks- Week 1 2026

San Jose State @ Eastern Michigan (Friday, 5:30 PM Central)

This pick is mostly just an extension of my preseason picks. I am bearish on San Jose State (I have them under 4.5 wins)- they were a one man team last year and that one man (future NFL WR Danny Scudero) is at Colorado. They're also broke. Eastern Michigan is a team I like this year- they have a lot of returning production, a good coach and a proven QB. It's important to get this bet down early, since Eastern Michigan plays a week 0 game against Sacramento State.

Eastern Michigan -3.5 -106 (3 units)

Clemson @ LSU (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

I was quite surprised to see Clemson unranked in the preseason AP poll (you'd think the ESPN hype machine would want a ranked vs. ranked matchup here!). Dabo's Tigers are being slept on, but they still are one of the 10 or 15 most talented rosters in the country. LSU may very well turn out to be good, but there is some blowup risk with such a portal-heavy team and it may take all these new pieces a bit of time to gel. This is another bet I made earlier in the offseason which has moved in my favor a bit (I will be more timely with these in the future!), but I still like Clemson ML at +290 now.

Clemson ML +365 (2 units)

Clemson +11.5 -110 (1 unit)

Baylor vs. Auburn (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

We saw this QB matchup last year when Byrum Brown's USF Bulls knocked off DJ Lagway's Florida Gators (I, of course, had USF ML +650 in that one). It's no secret that I like Auburn this year- they're a great sleeper team to make the playoff- and I have a lot of questions about what's going on at Baylor in what looks to be Dave Aranda's last year on the job. Auburn has always been talented and has finally solved their Hugh Freeze problem, and that means I'll be backing them a good bit this year.

Auburn -7 -105 (2 units)

Oklahoma State @ Tulsa (Saturday, 3:45 PM Central)

I'm once again playing the hits here as I had Tulsa ML +440 in this game last year. This is the return trip of the home-and-home. Oklahoma State will be much better this year with Drew Mestemaker in town, but they are one of the highest variance teams in the sport given that they have 60 new players on the roster. They could be a playoff contender, and they could also go 3-9. Tulsa will be improved this year (I have a 300/1 flier on them to make the playoff!) and I like their chances here.

Tulsa ML +385 (2 units)

Sam Houston State @ Troy (Saturday, 6 PM Central)

It's good process with these G6 teams to bet on unlikely outcomes early in the season. Teams like Sam Houston and Troy who are at the bottom of the FBS food chain are turning over 40 or 50 guys every year, and our preseason priors on these teams simply cannot be as strong as they used to be. I like Sam Houston, they had a rough year 1 under Phil Longo, but he runs a very distinct scheme and didn't have the personnel for it last year. That makes this an attractive play on the Bearkats.

Sam Houston State +17.5 -110 (1 unit)

Sam Houston State ML +720 (0.5 units)

Washington State @ Washington (Sunday, 3 PM Central)

Washington State is an interesting team to me this year. The Cougars were a pleasant surprise in year 1 under Jimmy Rogers, but he immediately left and now Kirby Moore (brother of Boise State legend and Saints HC Kellen) is in charge. I like his scheme and the players he has brought over. I also like to identify a few "blowup candidates" in the power conferences each year and Washington is a good one- QB Demond Williams tried leaving the team in the offseason and thus there could be some chemistry issues.

Washington State +21.5 -110 (1 unit)

Washington State ML +1000 (0.5 units)

UCLA @ California (Saturday, 9:30 PM Central)

I'm really interested in Cal this year, as you could probably tell from my ACC preview. JKS is back, and the Bears got some really intriguing skill position talent in the portal to surround him with. UCLA will become good under Bob Chesney, but they were worse than people realized last year (the win over Penn State papered over some systemic issues) and it's going to take him a second to get going. This will be a fun game (is Nico vs. JKS the greatest matchup of Samoan quarterbacks ever?) but I like Cal.

California -1.5 -110 (1 unit)

ULM @ Mississippi State (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)

Mississippi State should not be a 28.5 point favorite against any FBS team. I know that ULM is bad- I'm not contesting that. But the 2025 Mississippi State defense was a sieve and I see little reason to believe 2026 is going to be better. This has 38-27 written all over it.

ULM +28.5 -108 (1 unit)

Florida Atlantic @ Florida (Saturday, 6:45 PM Central)

It's no secret that I like the upside of Florida Atlantic this year- I have them to win the American at 35/1 and to make the Playoff at 150/1. HC Zach Kittley runs a good scheme and has a good experienced QB in Caden Veltkamp. Florida should be a middle of the pack SEC team, but if it takes them a second to gel in their first game under Jon Sumrall, they could be in trouble here.

Florida Atlantic ML +1400 (0.5 units)

Miami @ Stanford (Friday, 8 PM Central)

Everyone knows that Miami is the top 10 team most likely to lose a game like this. They're obviously way more talented than Stanford, but I do think people are sleeping on the Cardinal this year- they're not the worst team in the ACC (that's Boston College). Miami also just does dumb stuff like "lose a conference game on the other side of the country". The Hurricanes are pretty portal-heavy and as a result they do have some blowup risk if things don't click.

Stanford ML +1160 (0.5 units)

West Georgia @ Kennesaw State (Thursday, 6 PM Central)

North Carolina A&T @ Georgia State (Friday, 8 PM Central)

Lafayette @ Connecticut (Saturday, 11 AM Central)

Duquesne @ Air Force (Saturday, Noon Central)

Alcorn State @ Southern Miss (Saturday, 4 PM Central)

Towson @ Navy (Saturday, 2:30 PM Central)

Historically I have not bet on FBS vs. FCS games, but I am changing that this year. I have a theory that the moneyline on FCS teams is a good play against G6 teams. The thesis is similar to many of my other bets- volatility in college football is underpriced. No one knows how good these G6 teams are, because they are turning over huge swaths of their roster year over year (to be frank- no one knows how good these FCS teams are either). So it's just hard to justify these brand new teams being huge favorites against anyone with a pulse.

There's a few dozen G6 vs. FCS matchups in week 1 but I have picked these ones for a few reasons:

(a) Service academies- weird things can happen in service academy games because they tend to have a very low number of possessions. That makes big upsets more likely (it's the same principle behind why you want to bet ML underdogs in March Madness who play at slow tempos). We've seen two service academies lose to FCS teams in the last few years (Army to Tarleton State last year, Navy to Delaware in 2022). I've got Duquesne and Towson on this thesis.

(b) First year head coaches- Southern Miss and UConn both have first year head coaches who return very little from last year's roster. Southern Miss in particular is almost unrecognizable from last year's team. Both schools are also broke (especially Southern Miss). It's possible that there's just no chemistry on the roster and they fall apart immediately.

(c) I like the specifics of the matchup. West Georgia just moved up to D1 and is putting more money into their program than most FCS teams. Georgia State is maybe the most depressing team in FBS, and even though they're playing a bad FCS team in NC A&T, the blowup risk with Georgia State is pretty sizable.

Let's see how these go- it's my first time trying this thesis. Hopefully one of these hits.

West Georgia ML +1500 (0.5 units)

North Carolina A&T ML +2000 (0.5 units)

Lafayette ML +750 (0.5 units)

Duquesne ML +3000 (0.5 units)

Alcorn State ML +1300 (0.25 units)

Towson ML +4000 (0.25 units)