Preseason College Football Picks- ACC
Clemson to make the Playoff +700 (2 units)
Clemson to win the ACC +1600 (1 unit)
Clemson over 8.5 wins +165 (1 unit)
Clemson has fallen on hard times in recent years- they haven't finished in the top 10 since 2020, and last year's 7-6 record was their worst in nearly 20 years. I'm hardly a fan of Dabo or the way he's managed his program in recent years, but these lines seem a little silly to me. Clemson's odds to win the ACC are similar to teams like Virginia and Pitt.
Yes, Clemson has a lot of questions (Christopher Vizzina at QB? yuck!), but they are way, way more talented than the Virginias and Pitts of the world. They're still recruiting high school very well, so the talent level on this roster is quite high. They have the best defense in the ACC. If everything clicks, they have top 5 upside.
Florida State to make the Playoff +1900 (0.5 units)
Florida State to win the ACC +4000 (0.5 units)
Is Florida State going to be a complete dumpster fire and get Mike Norvell fired? Probably. You do have to consider the bull case here though- like Clemson, this team has a lot of top end talent, and if everything clicks, the ceiling is high. They have similar odds to win the ACC as teams like Duke and Georgia Tech. Florida State has shown us flashes of excellence under Norvell (look at last year's win over Alabama!). In terms of raw recruiting rankings, this is one of the 15 or 20 most talented teams in the country, so I like a flier on their upside.
California over 8.5 wins +410 (1 unit)
California to make the Playoff +2200 (0.5 units)
California to win the ACC +4000 (0.5 units)
There's one reason I like this bet- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. He was a revelation last year as a true freshman, throwing for 7 YPA and looking like a future NFL QB. Of all the middling teams in the ACC, I like the opportunity to bet on the one that has a ton of upside at QB.
Miami (FL) to miss the Playoff +220 (3 units)
I'm certainly no Miami hater- the Hurricanes are 9th in my preseason ratings, which is about where I expect them to open the season in the AP poll. However, I don't think this line makes much sense.
I think a 10-2 Miami team is unlikely to make the playoff, and I especially think a 10-3 Miami team that loses the ACC title game is unlikely to make the playoff. The only reason they got in at 10-2 last year was because they happened to have a win over the team next to them in the playoff rankings. A 2026 Hurricanes team that loses to say, Notre Dame and Clemson will not be in good shape to make the playoff.
The ACC is full of landmines and the Notre Dame game is Miami's only marquee opportunity of the year. Lose the Notre Dame game and it'll be hard to get an at-large bid to the playoff.
Syracuse over 6.5 wins +400 (2 units)
This is a rare instance where I'm disagreeing with my model. My model doesn't like Syracuse this year, but I do. Syracuse was great in 2024, and showed signs of continuing it in 2025 (they won at Clemson in September). QB Steve Angeli tore his ACL in the Clemson game, then the backup also got hurt, and by November they were starting a 4th string walk-on who they recruited from the lacrosse team at QB.
Syracuse had injuries elsewhere- they had the worst injury luck of any power conference team last year. They were legitimately awful in 2025 but I just don't think that's that relevant. My model does not fully understand this. I also like Angeli, and think very highly of HC Fran Brown. The ceiling of the 2024 team is very much in play.
Stanford over 4.5 wins +210 (2 units)
It's the second year in a row that I'm on the Stanford train. The Cardinal cashed over 3.5 wins last year for me, and I expect this year's outfit to be better. They had some really atrocious QB play last year with Ben Gulbranson at the helm, but it will be improved this year with former Michigan QB Davis Warren. Stanford also recruits high school way better than people realize- they're in the middle of the ACC. This team is not as bad as people think.
Wake Forest to win the ACC +7500 (0.1 units)
The ACC is so chaotic every year that I feel I have to take a random lottery ticket and see if it pans out. Why not Wake Forest? HC Jake Dickert did a fantastic job to get the Demon Deacons to 9-4 last year and they should actually be improved at QB with Gio Lopez in town (his struggles last year were a Bill Belichick thing, not a Gio Lopez thing). Anything can happen at any time in the ACC.