Preseason College Football Picks- Big Ten

Indiana to miss the Playoff +250 (4 units)

This bet pains me a bit, as I have been all aboard the Indiana bandwagon the last two years. I cashed Indiana to make the Playoff at 30/1 in 2024 and Indiana to win the Big Ten at 15/1 last year. 

The fact of the matter is that we don't really know how good Indiana is going to be this year. There's no historical precedent for "team goes from historic doormat to best team in the sport in 2 years"- we don't know what the long term trajectory is like for them. 

The schedule is pretty light and that is both a blessing and a curse. They play no one in the non-conference slate. I am not convinced they'll make the playoff at 10-2 given how light their schedule is. If they're 10-2, it's likely their best wins would likely be over Michigan and Washington- solid teams, to be sure, but fringe top 25 teams. They'd surely be behind 10-2 SEC teams in the pecking order for an at-large bid.

I am not going to be surprised if Indiana defends their national title, but I also think there's a lot more uncertainty with them than the other national title contenders.

Nebraska over 7.5 wins +290 (1 unit)

Nebraska over 8.5 wins +750 (0.5 units)

Nebraska to make the Playoff +2700 (0.5 units)

Nebraska to win the Big Ten +15000 (0.1 units)

It's a bit of a surprise to me that Nebraska hasn't been better in recent years. As roster spending grows by 25% year over year, donor support has become extremely important. Nebraska has some of the most dedicated fans in the country.

That shows in the roster. Their high school recruiting is much better than the other former Big Ten West teams (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota), and so is their transfer class. They also have Anthony Colandrea at QB. There's a reason I'm only betting on the wingy strikes with Nebraska- when you hear "Anthony Colandrea", "volatility" should be the first word that comes to mind. He has the potential to be an amazing QB and also has the potential to throw 4 INT every time he takes the field. I think that with the right coaching, his upside is tremendous.

Washington under 6.5 wins +350 (2 units)

Washington projects to be a solid team- I have them 23rd in my preseason ratings- but they have a lot more "blowup" risk than most teams. QB Demond Williams left the team in December, intending to transfer to LSU, before the lawyers stepped in and told him he'd be in breach of his contract if he left. He then went back to Seattle with his tail between his legs.

If things go wrong at Washington, they thus have the potential to go really, really wrong. HC Jedd Fisch is also known to not be the easiest guy to work for. I like the wing put on the Huskies this year.

USC to make the Playoff +270 (2 units)

USC to win the Big Ten +1400 (0.5 units)

I'm very high on USC this year- the Trojans are 13th in my preseason ratings. They were a good team last year- potentially a fluky loss at Illinois away from the playoff. They bring back a lot from that team, including QB Jayden Maiava who has never gotten the respect that he deserves as one of the better QBs in the sport. They're also dominating in high school recruiting, which will show on the field this year.

USC has been slept on, because they've been in the "good, but not great" space since they joined the Big Ten. They play Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon this year, and a 1-2 record in those games and a 9-0 record elsewhere will be enough to get them into the playoff.

Penn State to make the Playoff +350 (1 unit)

Penn State to win the Big Ten +2500 (0.5 units)

A common theme of my preseason picks has been me betting on unlikely outcomes for transfer-heavy teams. Penn State brings in 40 new guys from last year's team, which makes them much harder to forecast than most teams. They might suck, but also we've seen plenty of cases of portal-heavy teams clicking in year 1. I'm willing to bet on the latter, especially when you consider Matt Campbell's track record.

The schedule really works in their favor as well. They avoid Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon in conference play. That puts them in a great position to sneak into the conference title game.

Minnesota over 6.5 wins +150 (2 units)

I cashed on the Minnesota win total over last year and I'm back for more this year. This is the most consistently solid program in the country that no one talks about. They've cleared the 6.5 win mark 4 of the last 5 years and I expect more of the same this year. They return most key contributors from last year's team- they're one of the 10 or 15 most experienced teams in the country. Chief among them is QB Drake Lindsey who was very solid in his first year as a starter. This team will quietly go 7-5 or 8-4 again this year.

Michigan under 6.5 wins +400 (1 unit)

Michigan may very well end up in the playoff, but it's difficult to overstate how brutal their schedule is. They face 4 top 10 teams in Oklahoma, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. I think that my model is pretty in line with market consensus on Michigan (I have them 16th), it's just that the schedule gives them a real chance of being a top 25 team who goes 6-6.

Wisconsin to make the Playoff +2200 (0.5 units)

I was surprised when Luke Fickell kept his job at Wisconsin. The athletic department said they were going to redirect funds they would've had to use to buy him out and spend them on the roster instead. It shows- Wisconsin was a laggard in the early NIL era, but I like this roster. I particularly like QB Colton Joseph, who was excellent at Old Dominion last year. He threw for 2600 yards and rushed for 1000 more last year. No Badger threw for more than 700 yards or rushed for more than 400 last year. That should give you an idea of how improved this offense will be. The schedule is light (no Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana) and that gives them some chance of sneaking into the playoff.