Preseason College Football Picks- Big 12
Oklahoma State over 8.5 wins +490 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State over 9.5 wins +1000 (0.5 units)
Oklahoma State under 4.5 wins +270 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State is the only team this preseason that I’m betting both on and against. Simply put, they’re the hardest team in all of FBS to forecast. They return essentially no one from last year’s squad (not that they’d want to - last year’s team was one of the worst major conference teams I’ve ever seen).
The volatility on Oklahoma State is priced similarly to other teams, and that’s just not correct. There’s an argument they could be quite good (new HC Eric Morris brings excellent QB Drew Mestemaker with him from North Texas, as well as a dozen of other players). There’s an argument they could be quite bad (they were beyond awful last year and have 50+ new players). They’re an extremely high volatility team so I like the chance to bet on the wings of the distribution.
Iowa State over 6.5 wins +250 (2 units)
I’ve seen Iowa State picked last in the Big 12 by many people this preseason. I disagree. Yes, HC Matt Campbell left for Penn State and took QB Rocco Becht with him. But I really like the jobs that hew HC Jimmy Rogers has done both at Washington State and South Dakota State. He also has an established QB in Arkansas State transfer Jaylen Raynor.
It’s well established that I like betting on wingier outcomes on teams with huge portal classes, as they’re a lot harder to predict. I like Iowa State and I like buying volatility here so I’m happy to get +250 on them to win 7+ games.
West Virginia under 4.5 wins +240 (2 units)
I am not a fan of what’s going on at West Virginia. The Mountaineers decided to go back to their old pal Rich Rodriguez, who returned to West Virginia last year 18 years after he left the first time. They struggled to a poor 4-8 season.
They’ve gone portal shopping to fix things, and I don’t love what I see. QB Michael Hawkins was really bad for Oklahoma in limited action, and the Mountaineers brought in G6 level players elsewhere. That’s not a surprise when you consider that this is one of the least resourced teams in the P4 from a roster spending perspective. West Virginia is broke, has a bad QB, and a coach whose scheme hasn’t been innovative in 20 years. I’m bearish on the Mountaineers.
Baylor under 5.5 wins +134 (1 unit)
The vibes at Baylor are a bit weird. A lot of people are surprised that HC Dave Aranda has made it to year 7, he was on the hot seat last year and the Bears failed to make a bowl. Declining confidence in Aranda has led to less donor money coming in for the roster, and I am not impressed in what I see here. They splashed some cash for DJ Lagway (that could work) leaving them with little money to spend else and it shows with a littany of mediocre G6 players. This is probably it for Aranda.
Utah to make the Playoff +500 (1 unit)
Utah had an excellent team last year, and very well could have made the playoff. They were in the top 10 in my ratings for a lot of the season. Yes, HC Kyle Whittingham departs, but they avoided getting raided in the portal because they promoted DC and coach-in-waiting Morgan Scalley. The most important guy to retain was excellent QB Devon Dampier.
Utah is my second favorite in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech, and they avoid the Red Raiders in the regular season. That sets them up well to reach the Big 12 title game, and I think that the Big 12 has a better chance of getting an at-large bid than people realize. There’s multiple paths to the playoff for the Utes.