Preseason College Football Picks- American
The American is in a state of flux this year. Last year as the league’s best season in nearly a decade, with Tulane, South Florida, North Texas and Memphis all challenging for the playoff. All four teams lost both their quarterback and their coach in the offseason (welcome to the G6!) and that makes for a wide open league this year.
Florida Atlantic over 6.5 wins +175 (2 units)
Florida Atlantic to win the American +3500 (1 unit)
North Texas came out of nowhere last season with the best G6 offense of the decade. If any team is going to reach that lofty bar this year, my pick would be FAU. The Owls went 4-8 last year but were better than their record, they had awful turnover luck (-21 turnover margin on the season!). QB Caden Veltkamp was quite solid at 7 Y/A and they did well to hold onto him. They’re also one of the most experienced teams in the G6.
HC Zach Kittley is the exact type of coach I like to bet on- a guy who ran a fun scheme as an OC at WKU and Texas Tech and has consistently gotten results better than expected. With Veltkamp at the helm, I like the upside in Boca.
South Florida over 9.5 wins +260 (2 units)
South Florida to win the American +800 (2 units)
Of last year’s top teams in the league, South Florida has the best chance to repeat their success. Yes, Byrum Brown and Alex Golesh are gone- but I like the replacements. The new QB is Michael Van Buren, who impressed as a true freshman at Mississippi State (he was the lone bright spot on an otherwise awful team). He could’ve started many places last year but chose to be a backup at LSU, I saw him in person in Baton Rouge in November. The new HC is Brian Hartline. I’m somewhat surprised he didn’t get a bigger job, I wanted my school (Michigan State) to hire him.
The other important factor is that South Florida has the most money of any team in the league. They’re allegedly funding the roster up to the $21MM revenue share cap- that’s going to be 3-4x the roster value of the weaker teams in the league. I like what I see in Tampa this year.
Tulsa over 6.5 wins +220 (1 unit)
Tulsa to win the American +5500 (0.25 units)
This blurb is going to read a lot like other G6 teams I like. An exciting coach who won big at lower levels (Tre Lamb took Gardner-Webb and ETSU, two woebegone FCS programs, to their best seasons ever), with a relatively experienced roster, and a solid QB (Baylor Hayes, who had 7 Y/A as a true freshman last year).
It’s a winning formula and I think Tulsa is another solid pick to buy a lottery ticket on.
North Texas under 5.5 wins +120 (2 units)
Of last year’s league contenders, South Florida is the clear pick to stay there, and North Texas is the clear pick to regress. HC Eric Morris went to Oklahoma State, and there’s more 2025 North Texas players playing for 2026 Oklahoma State (including future NFL QB Drew Mestemaker) than playing for 2026 North Texas. This is potentially the least experienced team in FBS, and is led by QB Tayven Jackson. Jackson is a 4th school guy who hasn’t stuck anywhere- he was pretty mid at UCF last year. It’s a brand new team with a poor roster budget and they’ll come crashing down to earth.
Army under 6.5 wins +225 (1 unit)
I was pretty surprised to see Army as one of the betting favorites to win the American. This is a very solid program, and the service academies have a level of roster cohesion other G6 teams would die for in the portal era. But this team was average at best last year- they lost to FCS Tarleton State. QB Cade Hellums does not have the stats of the sort of option QBs who have really thrived at Army or Navy. This looks like a middle of the pack team and not a title contender.