Preseason College Football Picks- Mountain West and Pac-12

Washington State to win the Pac-12 +980 (2 units)

Washington State over 5.5 wins +135 (1 unit)

Washington State had an odd year last year. They lost to 2 playoff teams (Ole Miss, James Madison) and 2 near playoff teams (North Texas, Virginia). They nearly won 3 of those games, despite being huge underdogs- most notably a 3 point loss to Ole Miss when they were a 32 point underdog. That is to say, they were better than their 7-6 record indicates.

The bad news is that HC Jimmy Rogers left after a year. The good news is I like what’s coming in the door. I love proven FCS quarterbacks at this level, and the Cougars have a good one in FCS All-American Caden Pinnick from UC Davis. The vol is generally a buy on teams like Wazzu that have 1st year coaches, and I think there’s some significant upside with Pinnick, so I like a flier on them to win the league.

San Jose State under 4.5 wins +120 (3 units)

I was shocked how bad San Jose State was last year. The Spartans were supposed to contend for the Mountain West but collapsed to 3-9. What’s more impressive is that they were so bad despite having a legitimate All-American WR in Danny Scudero (he, of course, has left).

This roster is a complete wasteland, there’s no one of note back from last year. The likely QB is Luke Weaver, if you’ve watched any Hawai’i football recently you know that he’s not good. This is one of the least resourced programs in the country, so any player worth a damn transferred out. I expect this to be one of the worst teams in the country.

North Dakota State over 10.5 wins +285 (1 unit)

Unlike Sacramento State, North Dakota State is more than ready to move up to FBS- they’ve won 10 of the last 15 FCS national titles. They actually had one of their best teams last year (they would’ve been one of the best teams in the G6!) but suffered a huge upset loss in the first round of the FCS playoffs.

I like buying vol on teams just coming up to FBS, and for North Dakota State it’s the upside tail that I like. We don’t really know how good North Dakota State is as they don’t play many games against like competition (only 3 games in the last 2 years with a single digit spread!). I think there’s a solid chance they’re immediately the best team in the Mountain West.

Nevada over 5.5 wins +240 (1 unit)

Nevada had one of the smallest budgets in FBS, so their coach left for conference rival Colorado State. Their reward since? 4 seasons of 2-10, 2-10, 3-10 and 3-9 football. Last year was a “good” 3-9 though- they lost a bunch of close games, and blew some leads. HC Jeff Choate is a proven winner at the FCS level (I always like to see that- winners win) and has drastically improved the roster compared to a few years ago. The new look Mountain West is full of garbage teams (Northern Illinois, UTEP, San Jose State etc.) and I think a semi-competent team like Nevada can squeak their way to a bowl.