Preseason College Football Picks- MAC
Sacramento State under 4.5 wins +150 (5 units)
This is one of my favorite bets of the preseason. Sacramento State is moving up to FBS this season, and the move has been incredibly poorly planned. This is an FCS roster that happens to be playing in the FBS- the move to the FBS wasn’t confirmed until after their coach was hired, and after the portal window closed. Other teams (Missouri State, Delaware) have had success in the first year after transitioning, but they had multiple years to prepare for the transition and get their roster up to the FBS scholarship limit. Not the case for Sacramento State, which doesn’t even have a full roster of scholarship players.
Sac State was not even a particularly good FCS team last year, falling short of the playoffs. They only got into the MAC because the university is paying several million dollars a year to the conference and receiving no media rights revenue in return. The situation has been a mess all around and I expect them to struggle in year one.
Central Michigan over 7.5 wins +230 (2 units)
Central Michigan was good to me last year, I had them over 5.5 wins and they went 7-6. I’m back for more this year. Former Army OC/OL coach Matt Drinkall had a nice year 1. This team is just as physical as you’d expect when you hear the phrase “Army offensive line coach”, they ran for nearly 5 yards a carry last year. They don’t have a QB, but they don’t need one playing that style of football. There’s so many G6 teams that try to play the same style of ball- I like teams at this level that zig when others are zagging. Their style makes them a tough team to prep for and they really lean into their scheme with some of the best linemen in the league.
Toledo over 8.5 wins +160 (1 unit)
It’s a new chapter at Toledo as Matt Candle took the UConn job after 10 years at the helm. It’s a lateral move for a coach who was always solid at Toledo, but never broke through to the top of the G6.
I really like Toledo’s hire in new HC Mike Jacobs. He has Ohio roots and had some excellent FCS teams at Mercer the last 2 years. Mercer is traditionally a bit of an FCS doormat- it’s not an easy place to win. He now walks into a well-resourced Toledo job- the Rockets are the consistent top program in the MAC (they’ve only been home underdogs once since COVID!). Combine the best roster in the conference with good coaching, and I like the upside here.
Eastern Michigan over 6.5 wins +150 (1 unit)
Eastern Michigan is one of the toughest jobs in the country. Before Chris Creighton got there in 2014, it had been 20 years since the last winning season. He’s 58-62 in the last decade. That may not sound great, but once you adjust for the difficulty level it’s clear he’s a miracle worker.
EMU has one of the most experienced teams in the G6 this year, led by returning QB Noah Kim. Kim, who started for Michigan State earlier in his career, is a solid veteran QB. I like the combination of a proven coach with an experienced roster full of his guys.
Akron over 5.5 wins +180 (1 unit)
Akron is one of the few jobs in FBS even harder than Eastern Michigan. That makes it all the more perplexing that they were able to procure such a good coach- former Penn State and Oregon OC Joe Moorhead. Moorhead would have a long line of suitors at power programs as an OC, Akron has done well to hold onto him.
Moorhead has an exciting quarterback in Reese Poffenbarger. Poffenbarger was excellent at Albany in 2023, although he hasn’t played in two years. Normally that would be a red flag, until you realize he lost a QB competition to Cam Ward at Miami in 2024 and Drew Mestemaker at North Texas in 2025. I’ll excuse Poffenbarger for losing QB battles to a number 1 overall pick and potential future first round pick- he was excellent his last full season as a starter. I like the upside at Akron this year.