Preseason College Football Picks- Sun Belt
The Sun Belt was a profitable league for me last year, as I was a big believer in James Madison in the preseason. I bet on the Dukes to win the league at +400 last year, and also bet some on them to make the playoff later in the season. Like Conference USA, it’s a league where rosters turn over a lot year to year and volatility is systematically underpriced.
Appalachian State under 5.5 wins +132 (1 unit)
Appalachian State under 4.5 wins +260 (1 unit)
The vibes are bad at App State. Since the Mountaineers came up to FBS around a decade ago, this has been arguably the most plug-and-play job in the country. They’ve just suffered their first back to back losing seasons since they were a D2 program in the 1980s, and I think HC Do well Loggains is taking things further in the wrong direction.
Loggains brought in an awful QB (Malachi Singleton, last seen completing 59% of his passes at Purdue) and gone heavy on the portal. That’s not what you want to see for a coach in year 2, who should now be settling on “his guys”- especially at a historic developmental program like App State.
Louisiana Tech to win the Sun Belt +980 (1 unit)
Louisiana Tech is moving from Conference USA to the Sun Belt this year, and I think they can contend for the league in year 1. The Sun Belt is wide open this year- James Madison dominated the league last year but lost every player of note. That leaves the door open for teams like Louisiana Tech. Sonny Cumbie is in his fifth year and that means there’s a lot more stability here than in most G6 programs. This was a solid team last year that was a bit better than their 8-5 record and I don’t think the step up to the Sun Belt is that big.
Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt +1120 (1 unit)
Arkansas State has a lot more consistency than most teams in the Sun Belt. They have more money than most teams in the league and that translates to their roster. Former Tennessee HC Butch Jones is in his sixth year so he’s been able to get his guys in the door. In a wide open Sun Belt that anyone can win, I like a punt on a decent Red Wolves team.