College Football Picks- Week 5 2026
Futures*: -0.77 units
Week 0: +3.26 units
Week 1: -5.02 units
Week 2: -2.68 units
Week 3: -6.09 units
Week 4: +2.42 units
Season Total: -14.48 units
*Note: Futures PnL is a mark to market estimate
Last week was a needed improvement over the first few weeks of the season. I hit UMass -20.5 +470 (and should’ve gone bigger! I considered a bet on -27.5 that also would’ve hit). I also marked in about 6 units on my futures- our longs on Toledo, Florida, UCLA and Mississippi State aged well, while our shorts on Sacramento State and Washington also did.
Syracuse @ Connecticut (Saturday, 11 AM Central)
I was high on Syracuse in the preseason, but I’ve flipped my opinion. QB Steve Angeli has looked awful, completing only 55% of his passes. The Orange also look poorly coached- they are near the top of FBS in penalty yards and lost to a bad Cal team by committing a trillion stupid penalties. UConn is a decent G6 team- they have a dominating road win over a bad Southern Miss team, and a close road loss to a good Miami (OH) team. I don’t get this line, Syracuse is playing like one of the worst power conference teams in the country.
UConn ML +235 (2 units)
Army @ Louisiana Tech (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
My model likes Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have only played one competitive game (they demolished a bad FCS team and lost to Baylor and LSU), but they looked good in that game against Coastal Carolina. Army has taken a significant step back from the good teams of previous years. Louisiana Tech QB Blake Baker is questionable with a fractured throwing hand but backup Trey Kukuk has looked solid in his stead.
Louisiana Tech ML +134 (2 units)
Toledo @ Ball State (Saturday, 1 PM Central)
Ball State is really, really bad (if you watched them when I bet on them against Liberty a few weeks ago, you unfortunately know this). We’re on “worst team in FBS” watch with them. Toledo, on the other hand, is the best team in the MAC. They should’ve beaten Michigan State and hung 41 points on a good San Diego State defense last week. This line opened at 14.5, I couldn’t get it until 16.5, and it’s already 19.5.
Toledo -16.5 -110 (1 unit)
Temple @ South Florida (Saturday, 6:30 PM Central)
South Florida has spent $10-15MM on their roster. Temple has spent maybe 25% of that on theirs. I am a big buyer of the G6 teams that simply have more money than their peers (see my bets on South Florida, Miami (OH), Toledo etc.) as these teams are spending 3-5x the dregs of their respective league. That puts them on a totally different tier physically, which you’ll see in this game.
South Florida -5.5 -110 (1 unit)