College Football Futures Bets and Rooting Guide- Week 5 2026

New Bets

Alabama to make the Playoff -110 (2 units)

Somehow, Alabama has flown under the radar. Keelon Russell has been impressive in his first 4 games as a starter, throwing for over 10 yards/attempt so far. Alabama has put up at least 45 points in all four games so far and looks improved on both lines. Ryan Coleman-Williams is wearing gloves now and isn't dropping balls anymore. My biggest concern is the run game, which is yet to decide on a primary RB, but this team looks much better than last year's outfit.

Toledo to win the MAC +280 (2 units)

I took some of this at +440 a few weeks ago and am back for moore. Toledo is just good. San Diego State is the most consistent defensive team in the G6 and they hung 494 yards and 41 points on them last week. HC Mike Jacobs came over from Mercer and has brought his innovative offensive system with him- the Rockets are averaging 5 yards per rush and 10 yards per passing attempt. Toledo is one of two MAC teams that is spending a serious amount of money (Miami (OH) is the other) and it shows when you look at this team.

Oregon to win the Big Ten +460 (1 unit)

Oregon has done a good job of assuaging my concerns from the Oklahoma State game. Their front seven looks serious (Oklahoma State threw a trillion short passes because they couldn't handle the pass rush). Their offense looked great against USC. And, dare I say it, but Dylan Raiola looks better than Dante Moore, at least in the limited sample we've seen so far. The Big Ten schedule is also lighter down the stretch with USC out of the way and no game against Indiana.

Utah to win the Big 12 +480 (1 unit)

Utah is 13th in my ratings and 9th in SP+. They were clearly in the Big 12's second tier behind Texas Tech in the preseason, and I think the market has been too slow to react to the fact that Texas Tech is underwhelming and Utah looks good. Devon Dampier hasn't missed a beat and has run read option for approximately 75 touchdowns already this season. I thought Utah might take a step back with Kyle Whittingham taking some key players to Utah, but this is the same Utah team you know and love.

Jacksonville State to win Conference USA +500 (1 unit)

Jax State has been a remarkably consistent outfit since they moved up to FBS a few years ago. They're actually pretty similar to Utah, in that they don't have much interest in throwing the ball downfield but have a mobile QB (Jax State QB Caden Creel is averaging 15 rushing attempts per game!) and will just run the ball down your throat. When you can consistently run for 5 yards a game, why not do it?

UCLA to make the Playoff +550 (1 unit)

Speaking of teams that will run the ball down your throat, UCLA keeps impressing me. It's generally been good practice to get exposure to the Big Ten/SEC who are massively overperforming projections in September (see: 2024 Indiana, 2025 Vanderbilt) and UCLA and Mississippi State are this year's versions of that. I took some of this at +1500 last week and want to add more after a dominating 54-3 win over Maryland.

Nebraska to make the Playoff +2000 (1 unit)

Nebraska is 4-0. Admittedly, they haven't played a top 50 team yet, but they're easily taking care of business- they're 4-0 ATS. That has gotten them up to 25th in my ratings. They get a lot of games against mediocre teams to fatten up their record (Maryland, Illinois, Rutgers etc.- gotta love the Big Ten!). If they go 1-2 against the "Big 3" of Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State, and win the rest of their games, they're probably in. We haven't learned enough about Nebraska yet to know where their wing call should be priced- I think there is some real premium in it.

Oklahoma to make the Playoff +1550 (0.5 units)

I know I sound insane for this one, but hear me out. Yes, Oklahoma is 2-2. Yes, their offense has looked awful so far. However, they've also had some really bad turnover variance- they've committed 9 turnovers in their last 3 games. That's not going to sustain over the course of a whole season- John Mateer is not going to have the ball randomly fly out of his hands for an 85 yard scoop and score every week (at least, I think it won't happen every week). This is still a talented team and they're in a much better spot than say, Texas A&M.

East Carolina to win the American +1550 (0.5 units)

East Carolina switched QBs last week, benching Mitch Griffis for Emory Williams. They were playing an FCS team, but the early returns are good. I was surprised Williams did not win the job in the first place- he was a very highly rated recruit and has great physical tools. The Pirates are worth a flier now that he's behind center, he might have the highest upside of any QB in the G6.

Wisconsin to make the Playoff +2900 (0.5 units)

Shout out to Luke Fickell. He nearly got fired last year, but has truly been the victim of awful variance in his first 3 years at Wisconsin. His starting QB has gotten hurt in each of those 3 years, and he's been down to QB3 or QB4 at several points in his coaching tenure. He didn't forget how to coach- as was evident as the Badgers came back from 17-0 on the road against Penn State last week. Wisconsin has a light Big Ten schedule (Rutgers, Maryland, Michigan State AND Purdue? Oh my!) and thus the "sneak into the playoff at 10-2" outcome is definitely on the table.

Rooting Guide

If you've been betting my picks all season, here are the results we're rooting for this week. Games are listed in rough order of importance.

Temple @ South Florida -6

We have South Florida -5.5 here, but also will win 16 units if they win the American. Taking care of business against lesser teams like Temple is paramount to that.

Army -2.5 @ Louisiana Tech

We have Louisiana Tech here, but we also are long Louisiana Tech to win the Sun Belt and short Army's win total.

North Texas @ Tulsa -1.5

Our Tulsa to win the American ticket at 55/1 is off to a good start. The winner of this game is in the thick of the hunt for the league title. We're also short North Texas.

West Virginia @ Iowa State -3.5

We're long Iowa State's win total and short West Virginia's. Both bets look shaky but a result here will help a lot.

Liberty -7 @ Delaware

We're long all the main CUSA contenders other than Liberty and that makes us pretty synthetically short Liberty.

Washington @ USC -9.5

Our Washington under 6.5 wins +350 ticket is a coin flip. A loss here would make it more likely than not.

Texas Tech -13.5 @ Colorado 

I haven't given up on our Texas Tech under 9.5 wins ticket and Colorado runs a funky offense that could confuse them.

San Jose State @ Hawaii -2.5

Our San Jose State under 4.5 wins +120 ticket is not off to a good start and will be nearly a writeoff if they win this game.

Western Kentucky @ New Mexico State -2.5

Our shorts on Western Kentucky look good- under 5.5 wins, which we got at +310, is now a coin flip. It says a lot about how much they've fallen that they're an underdog to a broke NMSU team.

Miami -17 @ Clemson

We are pretty long Clemson, I wrote it off after the LSU game, but if they can somehow win this we are in business. We're also short Miami.

Ohio State -13.5 @ Iowa

I don't think Iowa has much of a chance here, but if by some miracle they win this it would be great for our Ohio State to miss the playoff +370 ticket.

Fresno State @ Washington State -2.5

We got long Washington State in the preseason, and despite the 1-3 start, I think the underlying fundamentals look good. This is a big test.

Auburn @ Tennessee -7

We got Tennessee to make the Playoff at +230 and it didn't move after a close loss to Texas. It will move if they lose this one.

Stanford @ Wake Forest -12.5

We're long both teams but longer Stanford. Last week's upset over Georgia Tech was nice for our Stanford over 4.5 wins ticket.